Submarine Networks in Asia, Presentation at. February 2014

Transcription

1 Submarine Networks in Asia, Presentation at February 2014

2 Introductory Housekeeping TeleGeography focuses on international networks. Internet refers to public IP traffic. Bandwidth refers to the combination of Internet, switched voice, and private network traffic. Feel free to raise your hand if anything is unclear as we go through the presentation. Also feel free to ask at the end of the presentation if you would like me to expand on anything. And I m always available to answer any questions by .

3 Internet Bandwidth in Asia and Southeast Asia

4 Global Internet Bandwidth

5 Global Internet Bandwidth Growth is continuing to slow. In 2013, worldwide growth was 33 percent, the lowest in ten years. Despite this, overall Internet capacity nearly doubled from 55 Tbps in 2011 to 104 Tbps in 2013.

6 Declining Peak Internet Traffic Growth

7 Declining Peak Internet Traffic Growth 41 percent is a key number. If peak traffic is 41 percent or higher, peak traffic doubles every two years. Only Africa and Latin America exceeded 41 percent in 2013.

8 Concentration of Asian Internet Bandwidth,

9 Concentration of Asian Internet Bandwidth, There are hundreds of carriers in Asia, but a small number of operators account for a large percentage of capacity. Asia is less concentrated than other regions. Smaller carriers share has increased slightly, but no major changes the last five years.

10 Annual Internet Growth in Southeast Asia

11 Annual Internet Growth in Southeast Asia Upgrades are inherently lumpy. Vietnam with large growth in Many of the faster growing countries tend to be be small in terms of overall bandwidth. Singapore is unique in being both large and still growing rapidly.

12 Internet Capacity, South Asia

13 Internet Capacity, South Asia Singapore towers over other southeast Asian countries. Much of this is hubbed traffic that is passed on, while other countries traffic originates or terminates there. Vietnam is the fastest growing of the four with a 5 year CAGR of 56.5%

14 Singapore Compared

15 Singapore Compared Comparing Asian hubs to New York and London. As a percentage, the three Asian hubs have grown compared to New York and London. Examining 5 year CAGRs, Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong have grown at 34%+ annually, while New York grew at 22% and London grew at 29%.

16 Subsea Cable Developments

17 Construction Cost of New Submarine Cables by Region,

18 Construction Cost of New Submarine Cables by Region, With 40G and 100G technology, much of the recent surge in cable builds has been driven by factors unrelated to a shortage of capacity. Construction is still expensive a small number of cables represent the bulk of the costs. ASE: Est. 430M USD SJC: Est. 400M USD APG: Est. 500M USD

19 Source of Lit Submarine Cable Supply by Route,

20 Source of Lit Submarine Cable Supply by Route, As mentioned, upgrades have supplied the bulk of new capacity. Some routes like Trans-Atlantic have had no new cable builds the last five years. For Trans-Pac, Unity is the only new cable in this timeframe.

21 Intra-Asia Bandwidth Supply and Demand, (Tbps)

22 Intra-Asia Bandwidth Supply and Demand, (Tbps) When we talk about bandwidth it is helpful to make distinctions between what is used, what is available, and what is possible. Intra-Asia cables have over 14.4 Tbps of lit capacity. 9.8 Tbps of this capacity is purchased. 5.6 Tbps of this is used. But Intra-Asia cables have a current potential capacity of 113 Tbps. Only 13% of Intra-Asia s potential capacity is currently lit.

23 Intra-Asia Capacity by Cable

24 Intra-Asia Capacity by Cable Three cables make up a bulk of the capacity: EAC-C2C, APCN-2, and FLAG/REACH NAL These three cables account for almost 11 Tbps of capacity. But also, keep in mind that cables like SMW-3, though smaller in capacity connect to unique points (Myanmar) and provide unique routes (west coast of Australia).

25 2004

26 Gbps of usage in Tbps of usage worldwide. 23 cables connecting Asia.

27 2006 Earthquake off of Taiwan

28 2006 Earthquake off the coast of Taiwan Taiwan Strait is a chokepoint for cables. December 26, 2006 a 7.1 earthquake occurs off of Taiwan s southern coast. Only EAC and Guam-Phillippines unaffected. Since them, TPE and AAG have been built avoiding this zone.

29 2008

30 Tbps of usage in Asia 18.8 Tbps total usage worldwide. 38 cables connecting Asia.

31 Today

32 Today Tbps of usage in Asia 93.9 Tbps of worldwide usage. 46 cables connecting Asia.

33 Pricing

34 Median GigE IP, Q2 10-Q2 13

35 Median GigE IP, Q2 10-Q2 13 Prices in Asia have fallen dramatically the last handful of years. Most prices have halved in the last three years. Hong Kong and Singapore are now in the single digits per Gig.

36 Intra-Asian Median Monthly 10 Gbps Wavelength Prices, Q Q3 2013

37 Intra-Asian Median Monthly 10 Gbps Wavelength Prices, Q Q Intra-Asia transport prices have also fallen dramatically. Price wars have led to routes like Singapore- Tokyo ending at 1/4 th of what they were in 2010.

38 Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities, Q Q3 2013

39 Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities, Q Q But comparing Asia to other regions, prices are high. Other factors here such as many assets being bought out of bankruptcy in the Trans- Atlantic. NY and London are also much larger markets. NY has 3x the IP bandwidth as Tokyo London has almost 7x the IP bandwidth as Tokyo

40 Cody Williams (Washington D.C. Office)