International Market Trends. Presentation by TeleGeography. January 15, 2012

Transcription

1 International Market Trends Presentation by TeleGeography January 15, 2012

2 TeleGeography Research Areas International voice traffic Internet backbone capacity, traffic, and IP transit pricing Long-haul network supply, demand, and pricing International IP VPN and Ethernet services, providers,and prices Global Colocation Database GlobalComms Database of wireless, wireline and broadband regulation, subscribers and competition 4G Wireless LTE & WiMAX service providers, deployments, prices, and forecasts

3 International Voice Market Trends Patrick Christian

4 International Voice Traffic Growth Continues to Drop But at a Slower Pace

5 Global Slowdown Continues Outbound Traffic by Region

6 Retail Price Decline v. Volume Growth,

7 Fixed-Mobile Divergence

8 Wholesale vs. Directly Terminated Traffic by Region

9 Wholesale Traffic & Revenues

10 Mobile Interconnection Rate Declines,

11 Top 10 Wholesale Destinations 2010

12 Change in Traffic and Remittances to Latin America,

13 Total International Phone and Skype Traffic,

14 Where Did the Growth Go?

15 Traffic Volumes of Top Carriers,

16 Outlook Pressure from Skype-like providers will increase Skype is not the only challenger, and availability of wireless and broadband access will expand & the number of devices to make IP calls will increase. Price declines are moderate Price declines have slowed a bit, so modest growth may be enough to keep revenues from declining. Volume is still growing, but slowly Demand for int l communications is not going away anytime soon. We project that traffic will continue to grow at least a few more years at 4 percent.

17 International Networks Supply, Demand, and Revenue TeleGeography Tim Stronge

18 Supply & Demand

19 Demand for Bandwidth Continues to Grow Used International Band dwidth (Tbps) International Bandwidth Usage Annual Growth 100% 75% 50% 25% Annual Grow wth %

20 Pace of Regional Growth Varies International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region South Asia Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Latin America East Asia Western Europe U.S. & Canada Oceania 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% CAGR,

21 Absolute Growth Still Matters! International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region South Asia Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Latin America East Asia Western Europe U.S. & Canada Oceania 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Total Growth (Gbps)

22 Perspective: Today s Small is Yesterday s Big 1,200 International Internet Bandwidth (Gbps) 1, U.S. (2000) Middle East (2010)

23 Demand Drivers: More Subscribers, More Capacity

24 Video Driving Traffic Gaming 4% VoIP/IM/Video Calling 5% IP-VPN 3% 2% Other 8% Web Browsing 26% P2P 19% Streamed & Buffered Audio/Video 22% Online File Storage 11%

25 Broadband: Cost per Downstream Mbps $160 Downstream $140 $120 $100 Monthly Cost Per Mbps $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Africa Asia & Pacific Middle East Eastern Europe Latin America & Caribbean Western Europe U.S. & Canada

26 Broadband: Cost per Monthly Download Cap $6 Monthly Cost per Monthly Download Cap (GB) $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Africa Asia & Pacific Middle East Eastern Europe Latin America & Caribbean Western Europe U.S. & Canada

27 Subsea Capacity Expanding to Meet Demand Growth Lit Submarine Capacity by Route, Notes: Data reflect lit capacity in unprotected terms at the end of the respective year. Intra-Asia capacity includes cables with landings in both Hong Kong and Japan. Trans- Pacific capacity excludes Southern Cross and Telstra Endeavour. Trans-Atlantic capacity excludes Atlantis-2.

28 Capacity Exhaustion Not Yet in Sight Share of Potential Capa acity that is Lit 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Trans-Atlantic Trans-Pacific U.S.-Latin America Intra-Asia India-Singapore 0%

29 Yet, More Cables on their Way 25 Actual Announced 20 Number of Ca ables Notes: Number of new cables is based on the year that the cable entered service. Cables entering service in 2012 and 2013 are based on announced contracts and TeleGeography estimates.

30 Why Bother Building New Cables at All? Route Diversity new physical paths are valued Latency Reduction potential to sell capacity at a premium Build-vs-Buy Strategy become an owner, not buyer, of capacity Cost Optimization use of new technology may lead to long-term unit cost reductions Competition still room for new competitors in some markets

31 Competition Still Not Ubiquitous % Sub-Saharan Countries Connected to Fiber-Optic Cables 100% 1 or more cables 80% 60% 40% 20% Percent Countries in Regions Connected by Fiber-Optic Cables 0%

32 Competition Still Not Ubiquitous % Sub-Saharan Countries Connected to Fiber-Optic Cables Percent Countries in Regions Connected by Fiber-O Optic Cables 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 or more cables 2 or more cables 3 or more cables 4 or more cables

33 but Competition is Spreading % Countries Connected to 3 or More Fiber-Optic Cables 100% 80% Africa 60% 40% 20% 0% Europe Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Percent Countries in Regions Connected by 3 or More Fiber-Optic Cables

34 Old Destinations, New Routes With most countries connected, many new cables are using exotic (unique) routes not unique destinations South America Africa/Europe Mid-Atlantic USA Europe Trans-Atlantic via Northern Great Circle Route Northwest Passage/Arctic

35 Online Submarine Cable Map

36 Pricing & Revenues

37 Prices Still Declining 10 Gbps Wavelength Price Erosion, % of Gbp ps Median Monthly Lease e Price 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% London-New York Los Angeles-Tokyo Hong Kong-Tokyo Miami-Sao Paulo 0%

38 Submarine Price Differences Persist 10G Wavelength Prices per Kilometer (Monthly Lease), 2011 Monthly 10G Wave Lease Price per KM $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Hong Kong-Tokyo Miami-Sao Paulo Los Angles-Tokyo London-New York Notes: Prices reflect median monthly lease prices offered by network operators for unprotected 10 Gbps wavelengths.

39 Demand Growth Outpaced Price Erosion ( )

40 Trans-Pacific Shifting Trends

41 U.S.-Latin America Shifting Trends

42 Demand Growth Outpaced Price Erosion ( )

43 Less Revenue Anticipated ( )

44 Inspirational Message Notes: For great friendship please purchase more TeleGeography products. Inspirational message excludes you there in the third row with the yellow shirt. We re very sorry, but no one here really likes you.

45 Global Pricing and Enterprise Services TeleGeography Greg Bryan

46 Why care about historical pricing? Benchmark present and recent transactions Enter new markets armed with knowledge Predicting the future Modeling revenue streams Assessing investment opportunities As Tim Stronge likes to say Yesterday s tomorrow today. BUT: I have a saying about this Predicting the future is hard. You can quote me.

47 Why care about historical pricing? So, to look to the future we look to the past! Source:

48 Why care about historical pricing? If we don t do so carefully, we can get it spectacularly wrong

49 Telecom Value Chain Grossly oversimplified for our purposes: Wholesale Bandwidth TDM and DWDM, submarine cable and terrestrial backbone network IP Transit / Ethernet Enterprise IP MPLS Backbone Backbone private line Enterprise Services: IP VPN, DIA Enterprise Ethernet: EPL, VPLS/L2 VPN

50 Pricing and Network Footprints Understanding historical pricing and the value chains goes hand in hand with understanding network footprints Global Enterprise Networks gives us a view of where carriers have been expanding enterprise services Along with the entire value chain of pricing, this assists in modeling the future prices ONWARD!

51 Bandwidth Pricing Trends High and low speed declines are different

52 Bandwidth Pricing Trends DWDM declines on key sub cable routes

53 Bandwidth Pricing Trends Bandwidth prices can range considerably

54 IP Transit Pricing Trends Global IPT prices under pressure

55 IP Transit Pricing Trends Trends are related to DWDM but independent

56 Ethernet Pricing Trends Some significant annual declines in EoMPLS

57 Ethernet Pricing Trends Relationship between EoMPLS and EoSDH is mixed, though generally EoMPLS is cheaper

58 IP VPN Pricing Trends Prices vary considerably across the globe

59 IP VPN versus VPLS Price curves cross at higher capacities

60 IP VPN versus VPLS Frankfurt curves are more pronounced

61 Enterprise Networks Track carrier footprints for nine services

62 Enterprise Networks Enterprise Product Density Data have to be normalized to compare product coverage across the number of carriers, time and geography as raw numbers can inflate growth Geography 2010 = 150 cities in 98 countries 2011 = 166 cities in 103 countries Carriers 2010 = 61 participating carriers 2011 = 73 participating carriers Method # of carriers X # of cities = total possible instances Density = # of reported sites from all carriers in all locations / total possible instances

63 Enterprise Networks Global product prominence

64 Enterprise Networks VPN coverage by region

65 Enterprise Networks Top Ten VPN Cities varies for on-net

66 Enterprise Networks Products growing at very different rates

67 Enterprise Networks Regional growth rates also vary

68 The Future! Prices will fall, but hopefully not too much! TDM the most stable, particularly in developed regions Ethernet, IPT and DWDM prices will fall based on regional competition, supply changes etc. Multiples between low capacity and high capacity bandwidth will continue to change 40G may be the new 2.5G 100G service availability will further destabilize prices IPT prices will likewise fall IPT in areas with new supply will fall harder As 100GigE ports become available prices will fall harder Ethernet will continue to grow and enter new markets, long haul and access