TeleGeography Workshop: International Market Trends
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1 TeleGeography Workshop: International Market Trends PTC 14 January 19, 2014
2 Preview of the Action International Voice (Paul) Pricing and Enterprise Services (Rob) International Networks (Tim)
3
4 Still Not Dead Yet International Voice Feel the Excitement! TeleGeography Paul Brodsky
5 Nothing Lasts Forever International traffic and growth rates, !
6 The Revenue Tightrope Retail traffic, price, and revenue change, !
7 Growth Continues in Some Mark International traffic growth by region, !
8 But Volumes are Low Originated and Terminated Traffic by Region, 2012!
9 Fixed-Mobile Divergence Share of ILD originated and terminated to fixed and mobile!
10 Mobile Is Getting Cheaper Mobile Interconnection Rates, !
11 The Wholesale Treadmill Wholesale Traffic & Revenue, !
12 Who s Big? Who s Biggest?
13 Skype Is Not Just A Fad International Telephone and Skype Traffic!
14 The Skype Effect
15 Outlook: Not So Bad The good news Volume is growing, if more slowly. Global revenues are fairly stable. Price declines have moderated, and largely reflect cost reductions. There is no clear substitute for the PSTN, and even Skype needs to make money.
16 Outlook: Not So Good Either The bad news Traffic growth has stalled. Revenues have peaked. Skype has a lot of company. Communications is fragmenting into contextbased channels. More consolidation is inevitable.
17 Global Pricing and Enterprise Services TeleGeography Rob Schult
18 Benchmarking the Industry The (Simplified) Telecom Data Value Chain Wholesale Bandwidth TDM & DWDM, submarine cable and terrestrial backbone network IP Transit / IP MPLS Backbone Ethernet Backbone Enterprise Private Line Enterprise Services: IP VPN, DIA Enterprise Ethernet: EPL, ELAN
19 Does Technology Drive Price Erosion?
20 Cost Reduction Encourages Competition!
21 Marketing Conditions Buyers!
22 More for Your Money! 2003 vs BMW 1200 R Approximate cost: $17,500
23 More for Your Money! Hong Kong-Tokyo, $17.5K Circuit over Time!
24 Prices on Major Routes Converge Ratio of MRC to Los Angeles-Tokyo, Q4 2013!
25 Bandwidth Pricing Trends Los Angeles-Tokyo 10G Price Range,! Q Q4 2013!
26 How Fast are Prices Falling?
27 The Danger of Price Based on Incremental Upgrade Cost!
28 Emergence of 100G 10G to 100G Price Multiples!
29 10 GigE IP Transit Price, Q4 2013
30 Local IP Transit is Expanding
31 IP Transit Pricing Trends
32 Enterprise Services
33 Carrier On-Net Services
34 Carrier On-Net VPN Services
35 Enterprise Networks Pricing 10 Mbps VPN Port Price, Best Efforts CoS! H2 2013!
36 Carrier On-Net EoMPLS Services
37 Ethernet Pricing Service FastE EoMPLS, Best Efforts CoS, H2 2013!
38 Ethernet Pricing Service FastE EoMPLS, Best Efforts CoS, H2 2013!
39 Carrier On-Net E-LAN Services
40 Ethernet Pricing Service Median Monthly Lease Prices for Best Efforts FastE E-LAN Port, H2 2013!
41 Local Access
42 Local Access Demand-Ethernet
43 Local Access Demand-Leased Line
44 Relative Cost of Local Access, Monthly Lease, E-1/T-1
45 Price per Mbps Comparison
46 The Future! Thank You!
47 Stuff I Don t Know (About International Networks) TeleGeography Tim Stronge [email protected]
48 Quotes to Inspire The more we study, we the more discover Our ignorance. Percy Bysshe Shelley Is it ignorance or apathy?... Hey, I don't know and I don't care. Jimmy Buffett
49 Question 1 Why has trans-atlantic demand grown more slowly than we predicted?
50 Global Growth Strong, As Predicted
51 Global Growth Strong, As Predicted
52 What s Up with the Atlantic?
53 What s Up with the Atlantic?
54 Growth Fundamentals Still Solid
55 Growth Fundamentals Still Solid
56 Some Reasons Why: Content providers increasingly serving content from Europe Effect of caching More physical peering in Europe These are mostly one-time adjustments Pace of trans-atlantic demand growth will likely stabilize
57 Question 2 Who will be the big users of capacity in the future?
58 We ve Already Changed Note: Combined share of downstream IP addresses represents share of third-party IP address in Europe, U.S., and Canada assigned to BT, Verizon, Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom, and AT&T as upstream ISPs. IP address share data compiled June 2013 based on BGP table analysis.
59 Is a New Shift Underway?
60 Who Are These Guys? Content/Cloud Service Providers e.g., Google, Facebook, Microsoft CDNs e.g., Limelight Research Networks e.g., LHCnet Other Network Types to Come?
61 Let s Not Get Carried Away: ISPs Are Still Driving the Bus
62 Question 3 How much bandwidth can we squeeze out of old cables by upgrading?
63 Potential Capacity Keeps Increasing
64 Trans-Atlantic Potential Capacity Potential Capacity as Currently Announced by Operators! Notes: Estimates found in TeleGeography Global Bandwidth Forecast Service. Figures show demand vs. supply with no new cable construction.
65 Trans-Atlantic Potential Capacity Potential Capacity if 100x 100G Wavelengths per Fiber Pair! Notes: Estimates found in TeleGeography Global Bandwidth Forecast Service. Figures show demand vs. supply with no new cable construction.
66 Trans-Pacific Potential Capacity Potential Capacity as Currently Announced by Operators! Notes: Estimates found in TeleGeography Global Bandwidth Forecast Service. Figures show demand vs. supply with no new cable construction.
67 Trans-Pacific Potential Capacity Potential Capacity if 100x 100G Wavelengths per Fiber Pair! Notes: Estimates found in TeleGeography Global Bandwidth Forecast Service. Figures show demand vs. supply with no new cable construction.
68
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