EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 GLOBAL INTERNET GEOGRAPHY 2003

Transcription

1 Executive Summary

2 12 GLOBAL INTERNET GEOGRAPHY 23 TELEGEOGRAPHY, INC. 22

3 Executive Summary The evolution of the global Internet took a new turn in 22. Since the invention of the Web browser, international IP bandwidth deployments have more than doubled each year. In 22, however, the rate of growth slowed to just under 4 percent. On some major routes aggregate capacity even shrank. Of course, the story isn t that simple growth rates varied greatly by region and route. Some countries became more dependent on the U.S. as a central switching hub, and others developed better connectivity to their neighbors. This report Global Internet Geography 23 untangles the snarl of over three thousand international Internet links operated by hundreds of service providers in order to draw a clear map of the global Internet. The underlying research is based on a combination of primary inquiry and automated route discovery tools. The report builds on four years of statistics previously published in the TeleGeography series of annuals and, most recently, Packet Geography 22. This year s edition contains two main sections: Markets and Networks. The Markets section begins with an overview of global Internet deployments and is followed by regional analyses of aggregate backbone capacity in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the U.S. & Canada. The section concludes with route-by-route bandwidth connectivity tables for 6 countries. The Networks section compares the state of competition for backbone services by region and examines the physical, mechanical, and financial aspects of ISP interconnection. Next, the report presents detailed, two-page profiles of leading international Internet providers. Global Internet Geography 23 concludes with a directory of Internet exchange points. Markets The maturing Internet markets of Europe contributed most directly to the global deceleration of international Internet backbone growth. Europe, which accounts for 82 percent of the world s cross-border bandwidth, experienced an international capacity increase of only 35 percent, a steep decline from the 191 percent growth rate recorded in 21 (see Figure 1. International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2-22). The slowdown was not unique to Europe, however. Latin America grew only 65 percent in 22 after skyrocketing 471 percent in the previous year, while Asia s Internet bandwidth crept up 55 percent for the year, compared to 122 percent in 21. TELEGEOGRAPHY, INC. 22 GLOBAL INTERNET GEOGRAPHY 23 13

4 Figure 1. International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2-22 Annual International Internet Bandwidth Growth 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Africa Asia Europe Latin America U.S. & Canada Notes: Data represent Internet bandwidth connected across international borders. Domestic routes are omitted. Data as of mid-year. Source: TeleGeography research TeleGeography, Inc. 22 Growth of transoceanic Internet capacity also slowed in 22, with trans-pacific bandwidth increasing 39 percent and trans-atlantic capacity only increasing 28 percent. In previous years, transoceanic IP capacity growth mirrored new submarine cable deployment, with Internet capacity generally accounting for 1 to 2 percent of submarine capacity. As of mid-22, however, it appeared that this correlation had faltered (see Figure 2. Transoceanic Submarine Cable and Internet Capacity, ). With high-capacity cables scheduled to enter service in both the Atlantic and the Pacific by the end of 22, it is unlikely that IP network builds will keep up with the underlying growth rates of raw capacity. A generally conservative approach to deployments of new capacity accounted for a significant portion of the global slowdown. However, much of the global deceleration came as a result of corporate financial distress, with bankruptcies leading to partial or complete network shutdowns. It is significant that international Internet bandwidth grew as much as it did never has so much bandwidth been taken offline in a single year. Networks In mid-22, the Internet s international geography was the work of an estimated 6 international IP carriers who owned, leased, or otherwise managed trans-border network capacity. IP carriers placed routing computers at either end of this capacity and used these segments to cobble together logical networks. Not all backbones are equal, however. TeleGeography s analysis suggests a highly-concentrated market. Only 42 percent of international carriers manage more than one cross-border Internet connection and just 11 percent have six or more international links (see Figure 3. International Internet Carriers by Number of International Internet 14 GLOBAL INTERNET GEOGRAPHY 23 TELEGEOGRAPHY, INC. 22

5 Figure 2. Transoceanic Submarine Cable and Internet Capacity, Trans-Atlantic Trans-Pacific 3 3, 14 1,4 Internet Bandwidth (Gbps) Internet Submarine Cable ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Submarine Bandwidth (Gbps) Internet Bandwidth (Gbps) Internet Submarine Cable ,2 1, Submarine Bandwidth (Gbps) Trans-Atlantic Internet Bandwidth (Gbps) Submarine Cable Bandwidth (Gbps) , ,682.4 Trans-Pacific Internet Bandwidth (Gbps) Submarine Cable Bandwidth (Gbps) ,314.1 Notes: Submarine capacity shown on a separate scale at a higher order of magnitude. Submarine cable capacity figures indicate the total lit capacity available on all trans-atlantic and trans-pacific cables including used, idle, and restoration capacity. Submarine cable capacity figures are as of year-end. Internet capacity figures are as of mid-year. Some trans-atlantic and trans-pacific Internet capacity is carried via satellite. Source: TeleGeography research TeleGeography, Inc. 22 Routes, 22). At the top of the backbone chain are the 5 IP carriers who manage ten or more links on their international Internet backbones. The global backbone market is also concentrated on a capacity basis. Only a third of the world s international Internet carriers internally manage at least 155 Mbps of international Internet capacity. Furthermore, in most regions the top ten carriers control more than 7 percent of the Internet bandwidth. The connectivity of networks also affects the position and relative importance of international Internet providers. The top five networks ranked by number of autonomous system (AS) connected WorldCom, Sprint, AT&T, Cable & Wireless, and Qwest (which recently displaced Genuity) are no surprise. But the huge step down in average number of connections from the top five to the next fifteen providers below is significant and appears to be unchanging. In fact, connections among the top five networks have grown faster (14%) than the next 15 ranked networks (5%) over the last year. TELEGEOGRAPHY, INC. 22 GLOBAL INTERNET GEOGRAPHY 23 15

6 Figure 3. International Internet Carriers by Number of International Internet Routes, 22 Over 1 routes - 7% 6-1 routes - 4% 2-5 routes - 32% 1 route - 58% Notes: Routes indicates the number of distinct point-to-point links operated across international borders as of mid- 22. Domestic routes are excluded. Source: TeleGeography research TeleGeography, Inc. 22 Coming of Age In the best-connected countries, the feverish pace of backbone expansion seems to have ended. Internet service providers have neither the profits nor financial backing to support much new deployment. Especially in the poorly-wired portions of the world, however, boom days may not be over. Furthermore, an infrastructure expanding at 4 percent per year is a lot more exciting than most, and probably still has a way to go before maturity truly takes hold. 16 GLOBAL INTERNET GEOGRAPHY 23 TELEGEOGRAPHY, INC. 22