Costs of car ownership in Russia

Transcription

1 PwC Annual Survey, 2015 Costs of car ownership in Russia INTELLI GROUP Market Intelligence & Strategy

2 Key findings on the cost of car ownership The year 201 saw many events that have had a significant impact on the Russian economy, including the automotive industry. The decline in sales that was evident throughout most of the year suddenly gave way to rush buying in November-December. In just a few weeks, sticker prices on cars and many other consumer products skyrocketed. Car owners and potential buyers are now paying more and more attention not only to a vehicle s brand and performance features, but also to the cost of owning it. Moreover, some consumers are even considering whether they can afford a car at all, or if it has become an unaffordable luxury. This survey of the cost of car ownership, prepared by PwC experts, provides answers to the most relevant questions, such as: How much will it cost car owners to maintain various classes of vehicle? Which cost items are the largest, and which expenses may be minimised? In this survey, we have analysed the cost of car ownership for vehicles of different classes in major Russian cities. Importantly, the cost of owning a particular car can vary significantly, depending on the specific conditions for buying and operating the vehicle. The key assumptions underlying this analysis are provided below. The cost of ownership means both operating expenses and depreciation of the car s value (acquisition cost less resale revenue). Analysis results Indicator, RUB thousand/year*, unless otherwise stated* B class (Compact) C class (Golf) D class () E class (Business) Compact up to RUB 3 million over RUB 3 million Value depreciation 2,8 10,6 138,0 259,3 92,6 162,9 208,1 52,7 Loan (interests only) 36,9 55,3 80,8 12,1 70,3 87,0 1, 217, Fuel 5,3 62,0 57,8 50,1 5,7 6,1 102, 101,7 Insurance (KASKO and OSAGO) 65,7 87, 130,0 181,7 85,6 106,2 155,0 230,3 Maintenance (planned) 8,5 9,3 12,9 18,3 10,6 1,9 16,0 20,9 Taxes and duties** 2,7 3,8 6,3 11,6 6,2 9,2 13,3 51,6 Other maintenance costs*** 11,9 12,5 13,7 16, 1,3 15,9 20,0 20, Parking**** 120,0 120,0 120,0 120,0 120,0 120,0 120,0 120,0 Total average cost of ownership per year***** Total average cost of ownership per year, including parking expenses Average cost of ownership, RUB/km***** 222,6 33,9 39,3 679,5 33,2 60,2 63, ,0 32,6 5,9 559,3 799,5 5,2 580,2 75, , (*) the average value for three years of ownership (**) transport tax and car registration (***) winter tyres and car wash twice per month (****) for Moscow, cost of an annual pass, daily from 6:00 to 2:00 (*****) excluding parking expenses 1 PwC 2

3 The survey findings on key components of car ownership costs Although depreciation of a car s value is to a certain extent a virtual indicator, i.e. it s not a monetary cost item, car owners fully appreciate its significance when selling a car. depends primarily on the initial cost of a used car (including the supply/demand curve for a specific model). In general, depreciation is one of the biggest items in the cost of owning a car. Driven by the sharply rising prices for new cars in late-201 and early-2015, this component has grown in monetary terms. The survey shows that B-class vehicles, compact s and full-size SUVs up to RUB 3 million depreciate at a slower pace than other car classes: in three years, they lose around 30% of their value on average. The biggest losses in value over the first three years are seen among E class sedans and full-size SUVs over RUB 3 million 38% and 7%, respectively. Other factors driving depreciation include: the reliability and reputation of a car model; the availability of new updated model cars in the market; price trends for similar new cars. Loan Over the last several months, car loan interest rates have grown substantially due to rouble depreciation and the hike in the Central Bank of Russia s prime interest rate up to 17% (as of the second half of January 2015). As a result, in the second half of January 2015 the interest rate for a three-year loan for all reviewed classes (with a 50% down payment) averaged -23%. Inside the different classes, interest rates vary, depending on the car model and special loan offers provided by banks and car manufacturers. Interest rates under car loans depend on the class of a car to a lesser degree. Still, if they increase, the impact will differ in different classes. Thus, sales in the low- and medium-price segments are most sensitive to interest rate growth under car loans, while premium segment sales are less dependent on loan interest trends. Loan servicing expenses in all covered classes amount to 17-21% of the total cost of car ownership. Fuel Fuel expenses in the overall cost of car ownership differ in the reviewed segments; the share of fuel expenses is lower for more expensive cars despite high fuel consumption (due to more powerful engines). For B class, the share of fuel expenses in the total cost of ownership amounts to 2% on average, while for E class and full-size SUVs over RUB 3 million this indicator is 7% and 9%, respectively. For the medium-price segment, fuel expenses make up about 13-% of the cost of ownership. Insurance (KASKO and OSAGO) Insurance is a significant cost item in the total cost of car ownership. It amounts up to 20-30% (mainly KASKO). In terms of value, the more expensive a car is, the higher insurance expenses will be. As a result, the heaviest insurance expenses are incurred by the owners of E class cars and full-size SUVs over RUB 3 million. Other factors driving the cost of KASKO include: the cost of spare parts and repairs; the car theft rate; the exclusiveness of the car model, etc. Expense breakdown by class, % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 0% 30% 20% 10% 0% B Class C Class D Class E Class Compact Planned maintenance On average, maintenance costs make up between 2% and % of the total cost of ownership. In relative cost units, the more expensive a car is, the lower the share of maintenance costs will be in total ownership costs. Taxes and duties Taxes and duties account for about 1% of the total cost of ownership for B class, C class and D class cars with average engine power of 98, 115 and h.p., respectively. For E class cars, compact and mid-size s and full-size SUVs up to RUB 3 million this figure is about 2%. Other expenses Other car maintenance expenses include purchase of winter tyres and using a car wash twice per month, and are almost at the same level in monetary terms, so their share in the total cost of ownership is driven by the car price. Parking expenses (for Moscow) Currently, these expenses are mostly relevant for Moscow. Yet, paid parking spaces are becoming more popular in other cities as well. Parking expenses can be considerable. Loan (interests only) Fuel Insurance Maintenance Taxes and duties** Other (KASKO + OSAGO) (planned) maintenance costs*** (up to RUB 3 million) 9 5 (over RUB 3 million) For full-size SUVs over RUB 3 million, the share of taxes and duties in the total cost of ownership is approximately % due to a luxury multiple used for calculating the transport tax. 3 PwC

4 Key assumptions Scope of analysis This survey covered current model passenger cars that are officially sold in Russia. For analysis purposes, eight classes have been identified based on car size and price*. Each class includes five popular car models. The findings of our analysis for each class show the average result for all cars in the class. All major indicators (car price, loan terms and conditions, etc.) are as of the second half of January 2015 and are based on PwC analysis, data provided by car dealers, and information from open sources. The following key assumptions underlie our survey: A car is bought with a standard equipment package, a gasoline engine and an automatic transmission. A car is bought and driven in a major Russian city. A car is driven by one owner for three years. A car is bought using a loan with a down payment of 50%. Composition of car classes B Class (Compact) Lada Granta C Class (Golf) Golf Renault Logan KIA Ceed KIA RIO Skoda Octavia Hyundai Solaris Chevrolet Cruze Polo Ford Focus Compact KIA Sportage KIA Sorento Tiguan Hyundai Santa Fe Nissan Qashqai Mitsubishi Outlander Hyundai ix35 Toyota RAV Nissan X-Trail Audi Q5 D Class () up to RUB 3 million Average characteristics of reviewed cars by class Opel Insignia Passat Mazda 6 Toyota Camry Skoda Superb Toyota Highlander Toyota Land Cruiser Prado Ford Explorer Mitsubishi Pajero Touareg Key assumptions B Class (Compact) C Class (Golf) D Class () E Class (Business) Compact up to RUB 3 million over RUB 3 million E Class (Business) over RUB 3 million Car price, RUB thousand Engine, h. p Kilometres travelled, km/year 2,32 2,600 25,20 20,700 21,10 23,380 25,700 2,0 Mercedes E-class BMW 5 Audi A6 Lexus ES Jaguar XF BMW X5 Infiniti QX70 Mercedes ML Toyota Land Cruiser 200 Range Rover Sport Fuel consumption (gasoline AI-95, AI-92 or similar), l/100 km over 3 years 6,8 7, 6, 7,0 7,5 8,1 11,6 11,3 23% 33% 30% 38% 2% 31% 27% 7% Loan interest rate 22.6% 21.2% 22.2% 21.7% 21.9% 20.7% 18.8% 23.0% Source: PwC analysis * The composition and criteria of each class have been identified on the basis of PwC analysis. PwC

5 Survey methodology Contacts This indicator is calculated as the difference between the price of a new car and the price of a similar three-year old used car, based on analysis of data provided by official dealers and specialised car trading websites. Loan (interest rate) This indicator is calculated on the basis of a three-year loan with a down payment of 50%. The interest rate is based on proposed car loan terms for a particular model as of the second half of January Calculation of the cost of ownership includes loan interest only. Fuel This indicator is calculated on the basis of the average number of kilometres travelled by a car, fuel consumption per 100 km, and the price of 1 litre of fuel. The average number of kilometres travelled by a car is based on data provided by the Autostat analytical agency, PwC analysis, and data from specialised car trading websites. Fuel consumption per 100 km is based on data provided by automakers. Fuel price (gasoline AI-92, AI-95 and AI-98) is based on quotes from public sources. Insurance (CASCO and CMTPL) Insurance expenses are based on premiums for CMTPL and CASCO policies for car owners with the following profile: male, married with children, 30 years old, driving experience of 10 years. Planned maintenance This indicator is based on the results of a survey conducted among official dealers. Taxes and duties This indicator includes car registration with the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate (GIBDD) and transport tax. Transport tax is based on the transport tax rate in Moscow in 201, as well as on the car engine power. For cars priced over RUB 3 million, a multiplier has been used, depending on the car price and its useful life. Other expenses This indicator includes the cost of winter tyres and car wash (twice per month). Parking expenses (for Moscow) This indicator is calculated as the average cost of an annual parking pass in Moscow. The expenses are presented for illustrative purposes. Sergey Litvinenko Director Automotive Practice +7 (95) [email protected] PwC Russia s automotive practice offers in-depth industry experience and hard-won insights into critical trends in the sector and conditions in today s auto market. Our team is well versed in best practices for resolving the type of complex issues that auto sector businesses face. We offer a full range of services in those areas that are most important to automotive sector businesses, such as taxation, accounting, customs clearance, and transfer pricing, as well as advice on business development, market analytics, strategy development and other key matters. We would be delighted to discuss the following areas for cooperation: Advising on market analytics and strategy development Assisting with promoting your company and products in new markets Raising finance and seeking out business partners Performing business valuations and due diligence Auditing your company s financial statements Resolving tax and customs issues Dealing with legal matters Enhancing your business performance 5 PwC 5