BrazilianAutomotive Industry. Fernando Iervolino
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1 BrazilianAutomotive Industry Fernando Iervolino
2 The Brazilian automotive industry represents almost 20% of its GDP
3 Worldwide vehicle fleet ( x ) China: in 2009 (Estimated), and growing fast! Source: Internet Share in 2009 (without China) United States % 5% Japan % 1% Germany % -9% Italy % 8% France % 4% United Kingdom % 4% Growth Mexico % 46% BRAZIL % 34% Spain % 14% Canada % 11% South Korea % 16% Australia % 15% Argentina % 28% Netherlands % 9% South Africa % 29% Belgium % 8% Sweden % 6% Austria % 6% % Source: Anfavea
4 World Production ofvehicles ( x ) Country Share in Growth China % 220% Japan % -11% United States % -35% Germany % 3% South Korea % 15% BRAZIL % 44% India % 116% Spain % -13% Mexico % 39% France % -37% Canada % -23% Thailand % 46% Iran % 96% Russia % 4% United Kingdom % -23% Turkey % 25% Czec Republic % 79% Poland % 42% Italy % -17% Argentina % 124% Indonesia % 41% Malaysia % 1% SouthAfrica % -10% Belgium % -64% Australia % -38% Sweden % -36% Others % 19% TOTAL % Source: Anfavea
5 World Production of Vehicles (x 1.000) China Japan USA Germany South Korea Brazil India Source: Anfavea China Japan United States Germany South Korea BRAZIL India Spain Mexico France Canada Thailand Iran Russia United Kingdom Turkey Czec Republic Poland Italy Argentina Indonesia Malaysia SouthAfrica
6 Growth potential Production in 2010 (x1.000) Growth Inhabitants per vehicle in 2009 China % (27 in 2008) Italy % 1,5 India % Thailand % Turkey % Canada % 1,6 BRAZIL % 6,5 Czec Republic % 2 Argentina % 4,5 Others % United Kingdom % 1,8 Sweden % 1,9 South Korea % 2,8 Iran % Germany % 1,8 Indonesia 705 1% Malaysia % Japan % 1,7 Spain % 1,7 Poland % 2 Russia % France % 1,7 United States % 1,2 Australia % 1,5 Mexico % 3,6 Belgium % 1,8 SouthAfrica % Source: Anfavea
7 Inhabitants per Vehicle 10 China 2006: : : 27 Source: Internet BRAZIL Argentina Mexivo South Korea BRAZIL Argentina Mexico South Korea Czec Republic Poland Sweden United Kingdom Austria Germany Belgium Spain Japan France Canada Italy Australia United States Source: Anfavea
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9 Mercosul Automotive Scenario 2010 ROLAND BERGER 2010: In 10 years Brazil jumped from 10th position to 4th 5,5 million of vehicles will be potential production in 2015??? Risk: Importation of 1 million of vehicles in 10 Challenges: Infra-structure; high taxes, bureaucracy and Brazil high cost ,8 Light Vehicles Sales Ranking 2010 Million of units 11,5 6 4, ,7 Mercosul 3,2 2,8 2,4 2,3 2,2 1,9 1,6 Other countries on BRIC are the Brazilian's main competitors Investment of 19 BUSD until 2015 on whole automotive supply-chain Source: Roland Berger
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11 BRAZIL Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) Production Plants Cars LCV Total VW % Fiat % GM % Ford % Renault % PSA Peugeot-Citroen % Honda % Toyota % Mitsubishi % Hyundai % Nissan (Renault) % Mercebes Benz % Iveco % Agrale % 82% Total Source: Anfavea
12 LICENCED Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles made in Brazil Cars LCV Total Growth % Source: Anfavea
13 LICENCED Made in Brazil +Imported Cars LCV Total Made in Brazil Imported % 12% % 12% % 8% % 5% % 4% % 5% % 8% % 12% % 14% % 16% % 20% Source: Anfavea
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16 Capacity installed & Investment byautomakers-2010 (x1.000 vehicles/year) AUTOMAKERS Currentinstalled capacity (A) New installed capacity (B) (B-A)/A % When it will be invested Investment Bil BRL Ford - Camaçari % Mitsubishi % Peugeot Citröen % Volksvagen % Mercedes Benz % GM- Gravataí % GM SJC/SCS/MC % Renault Nissan Iveco Fiat 800 Next Slide Hyundai 68 Next Slide Toyota 70 Next Slide Honda 135 Next Slide Source: Dana Channel, AutoData, Sindipeças Forecast, Investimentos e Notícias, O Globo, Jornal do Brasil Consolidated byhöganäs Brasil Ltda
17 New facilities and New automakers in Brazil (x vehicles(engines)/year) AUTOMAKERS NewInstalled capacity (B) When it will start Investment Bil BRL Chery - Jacareí ,2 Toyota - Sorocaba ,6 Hyundai- Piracicaba ,1 Honda- Argentina 30 (done) ,2 Sany?? 0,3 Chanae Lifan??? NC² Global LLC??? Total new investments already announced 4,4 AUTOMAKERS ENGINES NewInstalled capacity (B) When it will start Investment Bil BRL GM (Engines)- Joinville ,4 Fiat (Engines) C. Largo 330 (done) ,3 Total new investments already announced 0,7 Total of investments 5.1 bil BRL Source: Dana Channel, AutoData, Sindipeças Forecast, Investimentos e Notícias, O Globo, Jornal do Brasil Consolidated byhöganäs Brasil Ltda
18 Investments in new automotive facilities in Brazil 8,1 BBRL (5,1 BUSD) 3,00 BBRL 2,32 BBRL NC2 320MBRL TOYOTA 1 BBRL HYUNDAI 1 BBRL 1,36 BBRL SUZUKI 100MBRL DAF 336MBRL CHERY 700MBRL FIAT 3 BBRL 0,65 BBRL LIFAN 150MBRL JAC MOTORS 500MBRL Source: Dinheiro Magazine Aug, 8th 2011
19 Autoparts capacity & new models investments in Brazil 26 BBRL (16 BUSD) Renault 1,00 BBRL Volvo 0,42 BBRL PSA 1,40 BBRL GM 3,00 BBRL HONDA 0,36 BBRL FORD 4,97 BBRL FIAT 3,80 BBRL AUTOPARTS 10,80 BBRL Source: Automotive Business June 2011
20 Total investment of the automotive industry in Brazil 5,1 BUSD New auto facilities 16 BUSD New models Capacity Tiers 21,1 BUSD Total investments
21 Vehicles Production Forecast - Brazil: (x ) 3,67 3,88 4,08 4,29 4,45 +5,7% +5,2% +5,1% +3,7% +21,3% Source: Sindipeças Forecast August 2011
22 AUTOPARTS Brazil - Balance of Trade for Autoparts
23 Autoparts Imports
24 Autoparts imports
25 Autoparts exports
26 Autoparts exports
27 Brazil Autoparts Gross Operating Revenues 25,5% 42%
28 Powder Metallurgy Parts producers in Brazil Source: Mazza, Pedro Augusto Höganäs Brasil Ltda.
29 BRAZIL Source: Mazza, Pedro Augusto Höganäs Brasil Ltda.
30 BRAZIL Source: Mazza, Pedro Augusto Höganäs Brasil Ltda.
31 BRAZIL -PM parts per vehicle Scenario 1: VW, Fiat, GM and Ford are in Brazil for over 30 years and are the main customers of Brazilian PM parts Production Cars LCV Total VW Fiat GM Ford Scenario 2: Including Renault and PSA (Peugeot-Citroen) 2010 Production Cars LCV Total VW Fiat GM Ford Renault PSA Total Steel and Iron Powder (ton) used in Brazil 69,9% for automotive industries Estimated Kg of BrazilianPM parts per vehicle ,1 Total Steel and Iron Powder (ton) used in Brazil 69,9% for automotive industries Estimated Kg of BrazilianPM parts per vehicle ,5... But Brazilian vehicles also have imported PM parts, like sinterforged connecting rods, VVT rotor, water pump pulley, crankshaft sprockets... Precise figures can only be obtained joining information with the automakers
32 Brazilian Automotive Industry Fernando Iervolino, PMT Sources Anfavea Sindipeças Höganäs Brasil Ltda Automotive Business June MDIC Ministry of development of the Industry and the Commerce -
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