Case for Business Intelligence Concepts. Vladimir Rajacic Vladimir Vukojevic Aleksandar Kasa Marko Narancic Borko Rakic Ioannis Sdroulias

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1 Case for Business Intelligence Concepts Vladimir Rajacic Vladimir Vukojevic Aleksandar Kasa Marko Narancic Borko Rakic Ioannis Sdroulias

2 WHAT IS LPG? THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF LPG: PROPANE AND BUTANE. BOTH EXIST AS A GAS AT NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE, ONLY EXISTING IN A LIQUID FORM AT VERY LOW TEMPERATURES OR UNDER PRESSURE. WHEN THE PRESSURE IS RELEASED THE LIQUID WILL BOIL AND FORM A VAPOUR. IT IS THIS VAPOUR (GAS) WHICH IS USED TO FUEL APPLIANCES. LPG IS STORED AND TRANSPORTED AS LIQUID UNDER PRESSURE. AS A CLEAN FUEL, LPG HELPS MEETING THE GOALS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT.

3 WHY LPG? LPG CAN BE PRODUCED BOUTH FROM THE OIL (4-5 %) AND FROM THE NATURAL GAS (DEPENDS OF SOURCE AND TEHNOLOGY). LPG IS A FULLY FLEDGED COMMODITY. IT IS WIDELY TRADED ON INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE MARKETS. THE OVERALL AVAILABLE QUANTITY OF LPG HAS GROWN BY 45 % BETWEEN 1990 AND THE CURRENT TRENDS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF LPG FOR MANY YEARS TO COME

4 HOW CAN WE USE IT? LPG IS POPULAR IN DOMESTIC HEATING AND COOKING AND IN AGRICULTURE. LPG IS USED AS A INDUSTRIAL FUEL FOR SUBSTITUTE OF OIL, NATURAL GAS AND OTHER OIL PRODUCTS AND IN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY. IN RURAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, LPG IS THE SOLE GAZEOUS FUEL FACING ELECTRICITY. CONCERNING AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS, IT IS AT PRESENT THE LEADING ALTERNATIVE MOTOR FUEL IN THE EUROPEAN UNION WITH 2.2 MILLION CARS, SERVICE STATIONS AND BUSES. AS A MOTOR FUEL PROVIDING A REDUCTION BY ABOUT 15 % IN CO 2 EMISSIONS, IT OFFERS AN IMMEDIATE SOLUTION TO AIR POLLUTION IN CITIES WITHOUT COSTLY INVESTMENTS.

5 GLOBAL LPG CONSUMPTION Domestic 48,9% Chemical 22,2% Industry 12,9% Autogas 7,7% Refinery 6,3% Agriculture 2,1%

6 TRENDS Future LPG base demand is projected to be strong in most consuming world regions. LPG base demand is forecast to reach about 302 million tonnes in This equetes to an average growth rate of 2.4% per year over the forecast period

7 SITUATION ON LPG MARKET IN FORMER YUGOSLAVIA The great consumers of the Former Yugoslavia republics are SCG and Croatia. SCG approximate ,00 tones per year (in 2004.) CROATIA - approximate ,00 tones per year (in 2004.)

8 SCG-FACTS Location: south east Europe Area total: 102,350 sq km Population: 10,832,545 (July 2006 est.) GDP: USD Economy: GDP - real growth rate 5% (2005 est.) Roadways total: 45,290 km

9 Location: south east Europe Area total: 56,542 sq km Population: 4,494,749 (July 2006 est.) GDP: USD Economy: GDP - real growth rate 3.5% (2005 est.) Roadways total: 28,588 km CROATIA-FACTS

10 LPG CONSUMPTION IN SCG Domestic and agriculture 51% Chemical and industry 28% Autogas 21%

11 LPG CONSUMPTION IN CROATIA Domestic 43% Industry 31% Autogas 12% LPG filling station 9% Agriculture 5%

12 LPG SOURCES IN SCG Consumption in SCG: Refinery production: app tones app tones Oil Refinery Pancevo, Oil Refinery Novi Sad, Gas Refinery Elemir Import: app tones

13 LPG SOURCES IN CROATIA Consumption in Croatia: app tones Refinery production: app tones Oil Refinery Rijeka, Oil Refinery Sisak, Gas Refinery Ivanic Grad Export: app tones

14 AUTOGAS AS THE MOST PERSPECTIVE CATEGORY OF LPG CONSUMPTION EU regulations (all taxies in London by 2007.have to coverage to auto-gas) Smaller taxes for cars that run on auto-gas Subsidies auto-gas EU gives subsidies for usage of Does not require great investments

15 AUTOGAS AS A FUEL OF THE FUTURE? cheap, cheap, cheap, practical, feasible, safe clean alternative fuel helps solve climate change problem wider environmental solution for air quality and human health autogas during the combustion realized (in comparison with gasoline) less than 50% of CO and less than 35% NOx it damages engine less than gasoline, so engine has longer life It is easily stored, and it is easily manipulated

16 GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF AUTOGAS (in 000 tones)

17 VEHICLES WORLDWIDE THAT RUN ON AUTOGAS in millions

18 DISPENSING SITES WORLDWIDE (in 000)

19 TRENDS Autogas demand is expected to increase to 20.4 million tones in 2010 and 24.4 million tonnes in Average growth rate for period is 2.7% and for period is 1.4%. The number of vehicles worldwide that run on autogas in is hard to find (not available for us) but trend is obviously increasing (e.g. All taxies in London have to use autogas as fuel from 2007.).

20 FACTORS INFLUENT ON AUTOGAS CONSUMPTION (sort by importance) Primary weight Prices of oil derivates, 30 Number of vehicles, 20 Dispensing sites network, 15 Transit position of the country, 15 GDP (ecology) (if GDP is low the influence is high), 10 Secondary Fuel quality, 2.5 Population 2.5 Ecology (GDP), 2.5 GDP growth rate. 2.5

21 SCG-FACTS Prices of oil derivates: gasoline 1Euro; diesel 0,8 Euro; LPG 0,4 Euro Number of vehicles: approximate 210 per 1000 capita Number of LPG stations: 350 Network of LPG stations: middle on the roads/very good in the cities Transit position of the country: very good crossroad of the western and southeast Europe GDP: USD Fuel quality: gasoline and diesel do not satisfied EU standards Population: 10,832,545 Ecology: EU standards are not in use Economy: GDP - real growth rate 5% Oil consumption: 324 tones per 1000 capita

22 CROATIA-FACTS Prices of oil derivates: gasoline 1Euro; diesel 0,8 Euro; LPG 0,5 Euro Number of vehicles: approximate 260 per 1000 capita Number of LPG stations: 70 Network of LPG stations: middle on the roads/very good in the cities Transit position of the country: good but not as SCG GDP: USD Fuel quality: gasoline and diesel do not satisfied EU standards but those are closer to achieve EU standards than SCG Population: 4,494,749 Ecology: EU standards are not in use but it is closer to achieve EU standards than SCG Economy: GDP - real growth rate 3.5% Oil consumption: 542 tones per 1000 capita

23 SCG-MAIN PLAYERS NIS-TNG MAIN PLAYER developed storage facilities, transport capacities, partnership relations with NIS Refineries Atako, Eurogas, Intergas,Sponit developed retail network OTHERS

24 CROATIA-MAIN PLAYERS PROplin MAIN PLAYER developed storage facilities, transport capacities, partnership relations with INA Refineries Sedam plin, Eurotherm, Jadran plin, Butan plin OTHERS - developed retail network

25 STRENGHT AND WEAKNESS OF NIS-TNG STRENGHTS storage facilities, transport capacities, strong relationship with NIS Refineries (the same company), independent of the price changes WEAKNESS undeveloped retail, depending of import,

26 OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS ON NIS-TNG OPPORTUNITIES high prices of gasoline and diesel, low GDP, less taxes for LPG than for the other fuels, good network of LPG dispensing stations, transit position of SCG Danube country THREATS incertitude of the future of NIS, political situation in SCG, develop of the other alternative fuels (CNG)

27 STRENGHT AND WEAKNESS OF PROplin STRENGHTS storage facilities, transport capacities, independent of the price changes WEAKNESS undeveloped retail, less strong relationship with INA Refineries

28 OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS ON PROplin OPPORTUNITIES high prices of gasoline and diesel, low GDP, less taxes for LPG than for the other fuels, good network of LPG dispensing stations, possibility of export THREATS political situation in Croatia, develop of the other alternative fuels (CNG)

29 POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF COMPANIES ON LPG (autogas) MARKET Company could be developed in four different ways: as a main player in storage of LPG (autogas), as a main player in transport of LPG (autogas), as a main player in retail of LPG (autogas), combinations of those three ways.

30 STRATEGIC ISSUES FOR NIS-TNG NIS-TNG IS A LEADER IN WHOLESALE BUT HAS THE UNDER DEVELOPED RETAIL NETWORK (FROM SWOT ANALIZE). STRATEGIC PLAN FOR NIS-TNG (IN OUR OPINION) Develop of retail: Construction of new dispensing stations, Partnership with new or existing owners of dispensing sites, Decreasing dependence of import: Development of new storage capacities, ALL OF THESE STRATEGIC ISSUES ARE INFLUENCED BY THE FUTURE OF NIS

31 STRATEGIC ISSUES FOR PROplin PROplin IS A LEADER IN WHOLESALE, HAS MEDIUM DEVELOP RETAIL NETWORK AND HAS GOOD EXPORT POSSIBILITIES (FROM SWOT ANALIZE). STRATEGIC PLAN FOR PROplin (IN OUR OPINION) Develop of retail: Construction of new dispensing stations, Partnership with new or existing owners of dispensing sites, Increasing the possibility of export: Development of partnership with INA Refineries, ALL OF THESE STRATEGIC ISSUES ARE INFLUENCED BY THE FUTURE OF PROplin AND INA Group

32 MONEY, MONEY AND MONEY Price of LPG in Serbia is 0,5 euro The price of petrol is 1 euro The consumption of LPG in comparisment with gasoline is max 10% more Think about it!

33 SOURCES WEB SITES PUBLICATIONS ANNUAL REPORTS GOVERMENT REPORTS TRADE MAGAZINES PRESS RELEASES