ECONOMIC TRENDS MONTHLY

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1 ECONOMIC TRENDS MONTHLY ISSUED APRIL 28, 2012 COVERING DATA THRU MARCH 2012 Steve Nivin, Ph.D.; Maya Halebic, M.B.A.; Ramiro Cavazos Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at or

2 2 Demographics

3 3 Percent Change in Employment in the Recession and the Recovery, by Race and Ethnicity Fourth Quarter of Each Year All -5.3% 2.3% Hispanics -2.4% 6.5% Whites -5.9% 1.1% Recovery, 2009 to 2011 Recession, 2007 to 2009 Blacks -7.0% 2.2% Asians -2.8% 6.8% Source: Pew Hispanic Center Hispanics includes all races % -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

4 4 Percent Change in Employment in the Recession and the Recovery, by Nativity Fourth Quarter of Each Year Native born -5.5% 1.8% Foreign born -4.2% 5.2% Recovery, 2009 to 2011 Recession, 2007 to 2009 Source: Pew Hispanic Center Hispanics includes all races. -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

5 5 Percent Change in Employment in the Recession and the Recovery, by Gender Fourth Quarter of Each Year Men -6.7% 3.5% Recovery, 2009 to 2011 Recession, 2007 to 2009 Women -3.8% 0.9% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Source: Pew Hispanic Center

6 Employment Status of Workers, by Race and Ethnicity, Fourth Quarter 2007 to Fourth Quarter 2011 Non-seasonally Adjusted, Ages 16 and Older, Numbers in Thousands 6 Year and Quarter Change 2007: Q4 2009: Q4 2011: Q4 2007: Q4 to 2009: Q4 2009: Q4 to 2011: Q4 Hispanics Employment 19,928 19,455 20, ,257 Employment Rate 64.6% 59.2% 59.5% -5.4% 0.3% Unemployment 1,248 2,810 2,612 1, Unemployment Rate 5.9% 12.6% 11.2% 6.7% -1.4% Whites Employment 101,304 95,354 96,384-5,950 1,030 Employment Rate 63.6% 59.4% 59.7% -4.2% 0.3% Unemployment 3,925 8,291 6,786 4,366-1,505 Unemployment Rate 3.7% 8.0% 6.6% 4.3% -1.4% Blacks Employment 15,389 14,308 14,626-1, Employment Rate 57.8% 52.0% 52.3% -5.8% 0.3% Unemployment 1,449 2,631 2,571 1, Unemployment Rate 8.6% 15.5% 15.0% 6.9% -0.5% Asians Employment 6,926 6,733 7, Employment Rate 64.5% 60.0% 60.4% -4.5% 0.4% Unemployment Unemployment Rate 3.7% 7.8% 7.1% 4.1% -0.7% Source: Pew Hispanic Center Hispanics includes all races.

7 7 Employment Gains and Losses for Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the Economic Recovery: Top 3 Industries, Fourth Quarter 2009 to Fourth Quarter 2011 Non-seasonally Adjusted, Ages 16 and Older, Numbers in Thousands Change in Employment Hispanics Eating, Drinking, and Lodging Services 326 Wholesale and Retail Trade 284 Professional and Other Business Services 170 Personal and Laundry Services and Private Household Services -64 Hospitals and Other Health Services -88 Public Administration -97 Non-Hispanics Manufacturing - Nondurable Goods 539 Professional and Other Business Services 503 Manufacturing - Durable Goods 406 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate -105 Educational Services -132 Construction -379 Source: Pew Hispanic Center Hispanics includes all races.

8 8 Largest Hispanic Groups by State, 2010

9 9 Population 65 Years and Older by Size and Percent of Total Population, Source: U.S. Census Bureau

10 10 Percent Distribution of the Oldest-Old Population by Age and Gender, 1990, 2000, 2010 Note: Percentages may not add up to due to rounding. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

11 11 Percent of Population 65 Years and Older by County, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

12 12 San Antonio Economic Indicators

13 Business Cycle Index (Seasonally Adjusted = 100) San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

14 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas U.S Source: BLS

15 Unemployment Rates: February 2012 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 15 Region Unemployment Rate (Feb. 2012) San Antonio 6.8% Austin 6.1% Dallas 7.1% Ft. Worth 7.0% Houston 6.1% Texas 7.2% U.S. 8.7% Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

16 16 Employment Growth: Regional Comparison March 2011 March 2012 Region Employment Growth Employment Increase Employment Decrease San Antonio 1.49% Austin 2.44% Dallas 2.38% Ft. Worth 2.82% Houston 3.31% Texas 2.34% U.S. 1.50% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Financial, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/ Health, Hospitality, Other Services, Government MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/ Health, Hospitality, Other Services Information, Prof. Services, Government Retail, Government None Information, Government TWU, Information, Government Government Source: BLS; Texas Workforce Commission; Change calculations by SABÉR Institute MLC=Mining, Logging, and Construction; TWU=Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities

17 Employment Growth (Month over Month in Previous Year) % 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% San Antonio average annual employment growth rate = 2.24% San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas U.S % Source: BLS; Calculations by SABÉR Institute

18 MLS Home Sales (4MMA, % Change from Year Earlier) % 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% % % % San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center; Calculations by SABÉR Institute

19 MLS Real Median Home Prices (4MMA, % Change from Year Earlier) % 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center; Calculations by SABÉR Institute

20 Months in Inventory San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

21 21 Affordability Index of Existing Single-Family Homes for Selected Texas MSAs Metropolitan Area p* Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels Note: (*) Preliminary The National Association of Realtors (NAR) affordability index measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. A typical home is defined as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by NAR. The typical family is defined as one earning the median family income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. An index of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment. Source: National Association of Realtors

22 22 Affordability Index of Existing Single-Family Homes for Selected Nationwide MSAs Metropolitan Area p* Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Note: (*) Preliminary The National Association of Realtors (NAR) affordability index measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. A typical home is defined as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by NAR. The typical family is defined as one earning the median family income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. An index of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment. Source: National Association of Realtors

23 23 U.S. Economic Indicators

24 24 Corporate profits increased $16.8B in Q from the previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted profits with inventory and capital consumption adjustments 2,500 2,000 Billions of Dollars 1,500 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarter

25 Real GDP Year-over-Year Growth 25 8 Percent Growth Real year-over-year GDP increased by 1.7% in Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

26 26 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates) 6 Percent Change from Previous Quarter Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

27 Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (chain-weighted, seasonally adjusted) 27 Billions of 2005 Dollars $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ I 1995-IV 1996-III 1997-II 1998-I 1998-IV 1999-III 2000-II 2001-I 2001-IV 2002-III 2003-II 2004-I 2004-IV 2005-III 2006-II 2007-I 2007-IV 2008-III 2009-II 2010-I 2010-IV 2011-III Personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.51% in 4Q 2011 relative to 3Q Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

28 Quarterly Real Fixed Residential Investment (chain-weighted, seasonally adjusted) 28 $900 Billions of 2005 Dollars $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 Real fixed residential investment increased by 2.6% in 4Q 2011 relative to 3Q $100 $ I 1995-IV 1996-III 1997-II 1998-I 1998-IV 1999-III 2000-II 2001-I 2001-IV 2002-III 2003-II 2004-I 2004-IV 2005-III 2006-II 2007-I 2007-IV 2008-III 2009-II 2010-I 2010-IV 2011-III Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

29 29 Quarterly Real Fixed Nonresidential Investment (chain-weighted, seasonally adjusted) 1800 Billions of 2005 Dollars Real fixed nonresidential investment increased by 0.4% in 4Q 2011 relative to 3Q I 1995-IV 1996-III 1997-II 1998-I 1998-IV 1999-III 2000-II 2001-I 2001-IV 2002-III 2003-II 2004-I 2004-IV 2005-III 2006-II 2007-I 2007-IV 2008-III 2009-II 2010-I 2010-IV 2011-III Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

30 Delinquency Rate on Single-family Residential Mortgages (Seasonally adjusted) Delinquency Rate Q1 1991Q4 1992Q3 1993Q2 1994Q1 1994Q4 1995Q3 1996Q2 1997Q1 1997Q4 1998Q3 1999Q2 2000Q1 2000Q4 2001Q3 2002Q2 2003Q1 2003Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 2010Q3 2011Q2 Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Note: Booked in domestic offices; All commercial banks Quarter

31 Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans (Seasonally adjusted) Delinquency Rate Q1 1987Q4 1988Q3 1989Q2 1990Q1 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 Quarter Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Note: All commercial banks

32 Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans (Seasonally adjusted) 32 Delinquency Rate Q1 1991Q4 1992Q3 1993Q2 1994Q1 1994Q4 1995Q3 1996Q2 1997Q1 1997Q4 1998Q3 1999Q2 2000Q1 2000Q4 2001Q3 2002Q2 2003Q1 2003Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 2010Q3 2011Q2 Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Note: All commercial banks Quarter

33 33 Delinquency Rate on Business Loans (Seasonally adjusted) 7 6 Delinquency Rate Q1 1987Q4 1988Q3 1989Q2 1990Q1 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 Quarter Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Note: All commercial banks

34 Yield Spread as Indicator of Future Growth (see next slide) 34...monetary actions can have a temporary impact on short-term real interest rates and, through that channel, influence real economic activity at short horizons. A policy that drives short-term real rates down relative to the 10-year real rate encourages current investment and consumer-durables spending, stimulating real activity. Conversely, a policy that drives short-term interest rates up relative to 10- year real rates discourages current spending and restrains real activity. Monetary Policy Prospects, by Evan F. Koenig, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, vol. 3, no.2, 2004, as cited in The National Economic Outlook: Continued Growth Likely, by Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, issue 6, Nov./Dec For a different perspective on the relationship between the yield spread and recessions, please see Globalization s Effect on Interest Rates and the Yield Curve, by Tao Wu, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, vol. 1, no. 9, Sept

35 Yield Spread Year Minus 1-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 4 3 Percentage Spread Time Shaded bars indicate recessions. Source: The Federal Reserve Board

36 36 With the unemployment rate at 8.2% in March 2012, U.S. unemployment has decreased by 0.7% relative to March Unemployment Rate (%) Seasonally Adjusted Jan-69 Jan-70 Jan-71 Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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