Construction spending and macroeconomic trends in Australia: implications for NSW s State Infrastructure Strategy

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1 Construction spending and macroeconomic trends in Australia: implications for s State Infrastructure Strategy Infrastructure 23 January 2012 This material is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted or reproduced for distribution outside the client organisation without prior written approval from Port Jackson Partners Limited. This material was prepared for discussion with the client. It is an incomplete record without the verbal commentary.

2 lags the rest of Australia both in construction spending as a percent of GSP, and in the growth rate of GSP. Though GSP is not dependent solely on infrastructure, it is imperative for to maximise productive infrastructure investment and also get the best value for its investment FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY-SETTING Findings Slides Implications for policy-setting Even after excluding mining and heavy industry, s infrastructure spending as a percent of GSP lagged the average of all other states by 0.6% in FY11 has remained more reliant on public funding than other states In electricity and rail spending has tended to leave less for roads & bridges and some other sectors s GSP growth has significantly lagged the rest of Australia for at least 10 years The challenge is to use policy setting to support industries with growth potential 3-4 Maximise infrastructure funding capacity through: Encouraging private sector investment where appropriate Leveraging user-pays 6-7 Seeking Growth Incentive Payments Improving approvals and other processes 9 in order to obtain the greatest possible share of Commonwealth funding Maximise the value of infrastructure funding by: Supporting industry sectors with growth potential 2

3 s construction spending as a percentage of GSP has fallen behind the average of all other states TOTAL ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION* Percent of Gross State Product (GSP) 14% 1 WA 1 8% 6% 4% QLD Australia excluding VIC FY * Engineering construction covers: roads, highways and subdivisions, bridges, railways, harbours, water storage and supply, sewerage and drainage, electricity generation, transmission and supply, pipelines, recreation, telecommunications, mining and heavy industry, and other Source: BIS Shrapnel Engineering Construction in Australia, March 2011; ABS 5220 Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, Table 1 3

4 Even after excluding mining and heavy industry, s infrastructure spending as a percent of GSP lagged the average of all other states by 0.6% in FY11 ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION EXCLUDING MINING AND HEAVY INDUSTRY* Percent of Gross State Product (GSP) 14% 1 1 8% 6% 4% has fallen behind the average of other states in the value of engineering construction work done, and this gap has widened since 2006 QLD WA Australia excluding VIC FY * Engineering construction covers: roads, highways and subdivisions, bridges, railways, harbours, water storage and supply, sewerage and drainage, electricity generation, transmission and supply, pipelines, recreation, telecommunications, and other Source: BIS Shrapnel Engineering Construction in Australia, March 2011; ABS 5220 Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, Table 1 4

5 lags the rest of Australia both in construction spending as a percent of GSP, and in the growth rate of GSP. Though GSP is not dependent solely on infrastructure, it is imperative for to maximise productive infrastructure investment and also get the best value for its investment FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY-SETTING Findings Slides Implications for policy-setting Even after excluding mining and heavy industry, s infrastructure spending as a percent of GSP lagged the average of all other states by 0.6% in FY11 has remained more reliant on public funding than other states In electricity and rail spending has tended to leave less for roads & bridges and some other sectors s GSP growth has significantly lagged the rest of Australia for at least 10 years The challenge is to use policy setting to support industries with growth potential 3-4 Maximise infrastructure funding capacity through: Encouraging private sector investment where appropriate Leveraging user-pays 6-7 Seeking Growth Incentive Payments Improving approvals and other processes 9 in order to obtain the greatest possible share of Commonwealth funding Maximise the value of infrastructure funding by: Supporting industry sectors with growth potential 5

6 Excluding mining and heavy industry, has remained more reliant on public funding than other states ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION BY FUNDING SOURCE EXCLUDING MINING AND HEAVY INDUSTRY* Percent of total Australia excluding Publicly funded Publicly funded Privately funded 2 1 Privately funded FY FY * Engineering construction covers: roads, highways and subdivisions, bridges, railways, harbours, water storage and supply, sewerage and drainage, electricity generation, transmission and supply, pipelines, recreation, telecommunications, and other Source: BIS Shrapnel Engineering Construction in Australia, March

7 has missed out on infrastructure spending growth due to a lack of privately funded engineering construction ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION BY FUNDING SOURCE EXCLUDING MINING AND HEAVY INDUSTRY* Percent of Gross State Product (GSP) Publicly funded construction Privately funded construction Publicly funded engineering construction has kept pace with other states but privately funded construction has lagged badly 4% 4% 3% QLD WA Australia excl. VIC 3% Australia excl. QLD WA VIC 1% 1% FY FY * Engineering construction covers: roads, highways and subdivisions, bridges, railways, harbours, water storage and supply, sewerage and drainage, electricity generation, transmission and supply, pipelines, recreation, telecommunications, and other Source: BIS Shrapnel Engineering Construction in Australia, March 2011; ABS 5220 Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, Table 1 7

8 lags the rest of Australia both in construction spending as a percent of GSP, and in the growth rate of GSP. Though GSP is not dependent solely on infrastructure, it is imperative for to maximise productive infrastructure investment and also get the best value for its investment FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY-SETTING Findings Slides Implications for policy-setting Even after excluding mining and heavy industry, s infrastructure spending as a percent of GSP lagged the average of all other states by 0.6% in FY11 has remained more reliant on public funding than other states In electricity and rail spending has tended to leave less for roads & bridges and some other sectors s GSP growth has significantly lagged the rest of Australia for at least 10 years The challenge is to use policy setting to support industries with growth potential 3-4 Maximise infrastructure funding capacity through: Encouraging private sector investment where appropriate Leveraging user-pays 6-7 Seeking Growth Incentive Payments Improving approvals and other processes 9 in order to obtain the greatest possible share of Commonwealth funding Maximise the value of infrastructure funding by: Supporting industry sectors with growth potential 8

9 In electricity and rail spending has tended to leave less for roads & bridges and some other sectors PUBLICLY FUNDED CONSTRUCTION NOT RELATED TO MINING VS THE REST OF AUSTRALIA* Value of work done, $ Billions (Real, 2008/2009); Percent of total engineering construction Australia (excluding ) % 1% 1% 3% 5% 13% 1 9% 21% 1 11% 17% % 15% 19% 3% 3% 3% 2 16% 16% 11% 5% 3% 6% 7% Other** Harbours Water Rail 38% 39% 3 37% 4 44% 41% 43% Roads & Bridges 26% 28% 28% 28% % Electricity FY FY * This categorisation excludes engineering construction from all sectors (road, rail, etc) which is directly related to the mining industry ** Other includes telecommunications, heavy industry, sewerage and drainage, pipelines, recreation, and other Source: BIS Shrapnel Engineering Construction in Australia, March

10 lags the rest of Australia both in construction spending as a percent of GSP, and in the growth rate of GSP. Though GSP is not dependent solely on infrastructure, it is imperative for to maximise productive infrastructure investment and also get the best value for its investment FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY-SETTING Findings Slides Implications for policy-setting Even after excluding mining and heavy industry, s infrastructure spending as a percent of GSP lagged the average of all other states by 0.6% in FY11 has remained more reliant on public funding than other states In electricity and rail spending has tended to leave less for roads & bridges and some other sectors s GSP growth has significantly lagged the rest of Australia for at least 10 years The challenge is to use policy setting to support industries with growth potential 3-4 Maximise infrastructure funding capacity through: Encouraging private sector investment where appropriate Leveraging user-pays 6-7 Seeking Growth Incentive Payments Improving approvals and other processes 9 in order to obtain the greatest possible share of Commonwealth funding Maximise the value of infrastructure funding by: Supporting industry sectors with growth potential 10

11 s GSP growth has significantly lagged the rest of Australia for at least 10 years GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH BY STATE Compound annual growth of GSP (Real, 2009/2010), 5 year rolling average 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% ( ) Figure represents % of national GDP WA (14%) Australia excl. (68%) VIC (23%) QLD (19%) (3) 1% Sub-par growth for 10+ years FY Source: ABS 5220 Australian National Accounts: State Accounts 11

12 lags the rest of Australia both in construction spending as a percent of GSP, and in the growth rate of GSP. Though GSP is not dependent solely on infrastructure, it is imperative for to maximise productive infrastructure investment and also get the best value for its investment FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY-SETTING Findings Slides Implications for policy-setting Even after excluding mining and heavy industry, s infrastructure spending as a percent of GSP lagged the average of all other states by 0.6% in FY11 has remained more reliant on public funding than other states In electricity and rail spending has tended to leave less for roads & bridges and some other sectors s GSP growth has significantly lagged the rest of Australia for at least 10 years The challenge is to use policy setting to support industries with growth potential 3-4 Maximise infrastructure funding capacity through: Encouraging private sector investment where appropriate Leveraging user-pays 6-7 Seeking Growth Incentive Payments Improving approvals and other processes 9 in order to obtain the greatest possible share of Commonwealth funding Maximise the value of infrastructure funding by: Supporting industry sectors with growth potential 12

13 The challenge is to use policy setting to support industries with growth potential GROWTH RATES OF LARGEST SECTORS BY FY11 VALUE ADD Compound annual growth rate of gross value added to Gross State Product (Real, 2009/2010) % 2.9% 2.4% % 3.1% 3.5% 2.9% 2.1% 2.9% % 0.9% % 2.3% 0.9%** 3.9% 3.3% % 2.7% 1.5% 2.9% 5.1% 1.7% % of GSP in*: FY11 Finance and insurance Manufacturing Professional, scientific and technical services Construction Health care and social assistance Transport, postal and warehousing Public administration and safety Information media and telecommunications 16% 1 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% Mining FY20 FY32 16% 1 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 16% 1 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% * Percent of GSP excluding value added by ownership of dwellings, taxes less subsidies and statistical discrepancies ** Includes rounding error of approximately ±0.5% due to rounding in source data Source: ABS 5220 Australian National Accounts: State Accounts ( data); Deloitte Access Economics ( forecasts) 13

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