Barry Posner Exelon PowerTeam Illinois Energy Summit November 4, 2009

Transcription

1 Electricity it Price Drivers Barry Posner Exelon PowerTeam Illinois Energy Summit November 4, 2009

2 Power Pi Price Di Drivers: GFELT G.F.E.L.T. Transmission Generation Fuels Load Emissions 2

3 Power Market Supply & Demand Supply Stack Electric Demand 3 Fundamental analysis illustrates how power prices result from the equilibrium point (intersection of the generation supply stack with electricity demand) in each load zone, for each period and time bucket of the study time horizon

4 The Generation Stack Generation is each region is centrally dispatched to produce the lowest possible market-clearing price while maintaining system reliability Price e, $/MWh $/MWh CC 140 COAL 120 GT HYDRO 100 NUCLEAR 80 O/G STEAM OTHER 60 WIND 40 EXELON ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , ,000 MWs Nameplate Capacity (MW)

5 Fuel Prices Fuels for electricity generation used in Illinois are uranium, coal, natural gas, and fuel oil. Natural gas prices have the largest impact on power prices. Generally, lower gas prices mean lower power prices. ce, /kwh Energy Pri Historic Peak Electrcity (Energy) Prices New York Philadelphia Pittsburgh Chicago Natural Gas Pr rice, $/MMBtu Historic Natural Gas Prices

6 6 Natural Gas The price of natural gas is one of the biggest drivers of power prices. Natural gas prices are a function of supply, demand, storage capacity, pipeline infrastructure and imports. Two current large issues: When (or will) industrial demand recover? Low industrial demand is keeping gas prices and power prices low. When (or will) shale gas come into play? Shale gas has the potential to completely reverse declining gas reserve levels in the US. Abundant shale gas will keep the markets well supplied, keeping prices low for many years into the future.

7 Emissions Substantial shifts in policy are being sought by the President and Congress to change the way America produces and consumes energy. Although current economic conditions may limit the degree of change realized, national CO 2 and Renewable Energy legislation is more likely now than at any time in the past. A mix of federal, state, t regional and RTO policies are currently driving markets, and will continue to do so in the future, but we anticipate a greater federal role. Examples include RGGI, WCI, ERCOT s Competitive Renewable Energy Zones, and state RPS requirements. 7

8 Load Load changes are a driver of power price changes. Daily variation. Seasonality. Location. Residential, commercial and industrial load have different patterns and trends. Industrial load much more sensitive to price and economic conditions. Residential load not sensitive to prices in short-run. Technology changes affect different load sectors differently (lighting, consumer electronics, etc.) 8

9 Changing g Demand Patterns US load has been changing Underlying relationship between load growth and economic growth is evolving Future drivers of potential energy use include consumer prices, the success of conservation policies, and what new technologies are adopted in US homes and businesses 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Changes in Electricity Intensity Consumption/person Consumption/$GDP

10 Electricity Demand by Sector Electricity Retail Sales by Sector, 1993 Electricity Retail Sales by Sector, 2007 Industrial 34% Industrial: dropped from 34% to 28% Residential Industrial 35% 28% Residential 37% Commercial 31% Commercial 35% Commercial and Residential: rose from 66% to 72% Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (1996) Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review (May 2008) 10

11 Transmission In Eastern US, power tends to flow West to East. Sometimes, optimal flows can be limited by available transmission capacity. When this happens, power get stuck, causing congestion. This causes prices to vary greatly at different locations. As load increases, what new lines will be built? 11 This is specifically relevant in the Midwest because of new wind generation. Large wind installations could overburden the existing grid, causing reliability problems and larger price variation.

12 Electricity Prices Electricity Prices are a function of supply and demand $/MWh $ CC COAL GT HYDRO NUCLEAR O/G STEAM OTHER WIND 40 EXELON ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , ,000 MWs A system-wide load of 110,000 MW results in a clearing price of about $45/MWh

13 Transmission Effects $/MWh 140 CC COAL 120 GT 100 HYDRO NUCLEAR 80 O/G STEAM OTHER 60 WIND 40 EXELON ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , ,000 MWs Allowing for imports will reduce quantity and price in the market. Exports raise quantity and price.