Ultra Fast Broadband update
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1 Ultra Fast Broadband update Graham Mitchell, Chief Executive Officer TEL.CON12 17 April 2012
2 Topics for today: Progress with deployment Likely sources of demand UFB opportunities for RSPs International developments Summary 17 April
3 Deployment progress: Year 1 premises passed: 10% 19% 10% 61% 14 urban centres underway All urban centres underway during Target 70K premises by 30/6 Images: Northpower Fibre, Whangarei; Chorus, Kelson 17 April
4 Long term deployment view: Premises Passed by Segment (Cumulative) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 Premises Passed by Partner (Incremental per annum) Priority Premises Passed Non Priority Premises Passed Notes: graphs show years to end June. 17 April
5 UFB progress: Illustrative Penrose / East Tamaki / Manukau: Christchurch: UFB Year 1 & 2 Business Fibre ~60,000 end users, mostly businesses, can access UFB P2P & Dark Fibre on demand today 17 April
6 Deployment consultation: Local Councils: Successful consultation on Year 2 plans Schools: All candidate areas commencing Year 2 Health: DHBs consulted by Health IT Board, CFH and MED Business: Focus on specific sectors & industry verticals Stakeholder consultation is ongoing & suggests growing momentum in UFB build will drive reasonable uptake 17 April
7 UFB schools deployment: Number of schools % % 100% % % Pre-UFB fibred schools FY12 UFB plan (to 30 June) FY13 Chorus commitment Balance to finish Total urban schools 17 April
8 School usage of UFB: 17 April
9 Digital Leadership Forums: Purpose: Brings together local stakeholders on demand & supply side to realise UFB benefits Objectives: To develop & execute a strategy to realise local economic development goals using UFB Auckland Hamilton New Plymouth Wanganui Nelson Dunedin Whangarei Tauranga Wellington Christchurch Napier-Hastings NOT EXHAUSTIVE Invercargill Local communities are taking the lead in building programs to maximise UFB & RBI opportunities Digital Leadership Forum in action Digital Leadership Forum being explored/ instigated Other digital strategy initiative(s) 17 April
10 Likely sources of demand: Priority segments Enterprise: WAN on fibre Strong CIO demand VM-ware Centralising IT Video conferencing Collaboration Cloud Remote working SME: Cost reduction WAN VoIP Cloud apps & back-up Remote working Government: GCIO priorities WAN Health: Imaging VC consultation Aligned Health IT plan Schools: Pent-up demand National data e-learning Network For Learning Carrier: 3G & LTE Non-Building Address Points Community Wi-Fi SCADA 17 April
11 Likely sources of demand: Residential Higher speed Internet access Examples: Home VC, uploading media Back-up & cloud based storage Working at & from home Extended school learning Advanced gaming Real-time entertainment Home security Home Monitoring & Control 17 April
12 In the Home: Video is changing Netflix Movies: 33% of US peak download HBO Go app hits 1 million downloads in first week OIPF TV Browser, supported by all major TV OEMs AT&T/Cisco release of wireless set-top box no more cables! 17 April
13 Real-Time Entertainment dominating: Asia-Pac: PPStream and PPLive together account > 37% of the upstream. P2P file sharing and web browsing diminishing Internet is being increasingly used as a broadcast entertainment medium 17 April
14 US: Internet Peak now looks like TV peak US daily maximum ~ 8:45 p.m. to 10:45 p.m. Within 6 months peak period reduced from 2.5 to 2 hours AsiaPac peak at 9pm to 11.30pm Entertainment Video concurrency ratios much higher than internet UFB not contended, allowing high concurrency & quantity for video 17 April
15 Data usage growing: Mean consumption Asia-Pacific Fixed Access Day Week Month Upstream 384.9MB 2.3GB 6.6GB Downstream 1.3GB 8.9GB 24.2GB Aggregate 1.7GB 11.2GB 30.8GB Netflix user averages GB/month (5-10 movies) Growth entertainment driven local Locally hosted to minimise latency/cost Source: Sandvine Network Demographics, Nov April
16 Performance beyond the UFB PoI: Household Household 100/50 Mbps 10/2.5 CIR <1ms UFB PoI ISP: CIR? Mbps? ms? Corporate Office UFB Network RSP backhaul & cloud UFB Network delivers high quality; RSPs control experience beyond PoI 17 April
17 Home wiring: Double play Home wiring should not be an issue for most UFB users Copper Ethernet Coaxial cable Fibre 17 April
18 Case study: FiOS (USA) FTTH 61% of consumer revenue: o 20% YoY growth in triple play o ARPU US$148+ FiOS video: o 4.2m subscribers, 194 net adds o 32% penetration FiOS Internet: o 4.8m subscribers, 201 net adds o 36% penetration Verizon FiOS continues to grow ARPU and share in highly competitive US market 17 April
19 Case study: HKBN (Hong Kong) Net additions ( 000) Total market adds (31 Dec Y/E)* HKBN adds (31 Aug Y/E) Source: OTFA, Hong Kong regulator. Example plans: 100Mbps plan: NZ$31/ month 1Gbps plan: $42/ month International speeds: 20Mbps Wi-Fi hotspots free Free mobile handset or retail voucher. In a highly competitive telco market, HKBN has 30% FTTP uptake & increasing profits. 17 April
20 Case study: NBN Co retail plans Speed: (Mbps) 25 / 5 25 / 5 Kiama, NSW: 26% uptake Cap: (GB) peak, 70 off peak Price: (A$) $74.90 $64.94 All local & national calls $30 of voice calls Features: No set-up fee 24 month contract $79 setup fee 24 month contract Willunga, South Australia: 29% uptake ABC iview, Fetch TV etc. zerorated 17 April
21 Summary: Deployment advancing: Substantial coverage by 30 June UFB P2P available now in most CBDs All UFB networks activated mid-2012 Opportunity for RSP differentiation: Upstream from UFB Packages Applications / content FTTH gaining momentum internationally 17 April
22 Thank you! CFH contact: Rohan MacMahon, Strategy Director E: rohan.macmahon <at> crownfibre.govt.nz Ph: April
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