Renewable Energy Development Projections & Challenges

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy Development Projections & Challenges By Mochamad Sofyan Head of New & Renewable Energy Division, PT PLN ( Persero ) Indonesia Norway Strategic Partnership in Business 1 Jakarta, 28 Nopember 2012

2 Current Status of Energy Production 1. BASED ON POWER SOURCES Lease Gas; 0,98% Lease Fuel Oil; 6,82% 2. BASED ON PRIMARY ENERGY Coal, 44% IPP; 20,86% PLN existing capacity 34,928 MW. Geothermal and other, 5.% Nat.Gas, 21% Owned ; 71,34% Fuel oil, 23.% Hydro, 7% Fossil power plant remain dominant ( 88 % ), mainly Coal Steam Power Plant, Oil and Natural Gas with 44 %, 23 % and 21 % share respectively. Share of renewable energy limited by 12 %, consist of hydro ( 7 % ) and Geothermal & Other RE ( 5 % ). 2

3 11 % 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-8 % HSD 2020 Non-ReNEW Hydro Geothermal 5,583 6,877 4,971 PLN Electricity Development Plan 4,271 5,941 7,164 6,436 MFO 4, % New Plants Expansion : 55,3 GW 5,034 4, PLTU PLTA PLTP PLTGU PLTG PLT Lain Total PLN Plan & Polic The electricity demand growth by 8.5 % annually, supplied by LNG various energy resources. Gas Fossil power plant remain dominant ( 81 % ), mainly Coal Steam Power Plant with 63 % Coal share by To reduce oil consumption from 21 % ( 2011) to 3 % by Development of renewable Geothermal Hydro energy resources will be first priority. 3

4 OPPORTUNITY & CHALLENGES OPPORTUNITY Need of infrastructures to support the economic growth. High electricity demand growth of about 8.5% annualy. Abundant Renewable energy potential. Total of 12 GW new additional RE plants has been planned until 2020 and 55 % expected to be developed by private ( IPP ). CHALLENGES Regulation aspects and permits. Needs of huge funding. Environment and social issues. Low electrification ratio (73%) as well as average electricity consumption rate per capita of about 655 kwh annualy. 4

5 PLN Plan on Renewable Energy PLN plan to increase its RE energy mix for electricity generation by including the scenario in General Plan of Electricity Development (RUPTL ). RE Development will be progressed intensively due to its potential, technology development, and economic viability. PLN has set up the policy to developed Solar as an hybrid system with existing Diesel Biomass or other RE potentials in a remote area and small island, to respond with GOI policy to reduce oil consumption. 5

6 DEMAND PROJECTION Year 2020 : 328 TWh RE Share: 12 % Hydro : 11,1 TWh Geothermal : 9 TWh Others : 0.06 TWh Electrification Ratio: 73% Year 2011 : 162 TWh RE Share: 19 % Hydro : 21,4 TWh Geothermal : 46 TWh Others: 0,07 TWh Electrification Ratio : 95% 6

7 HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL Hydro Power Potential Study (1983) : MW 1249 Location Review Hydro Power Potential Study (1999) 3 rd Screening : MW -167 Location Hydropower Master Plan Study ( 2011 ) : MW 89 Location Sumatera 4.408,4 MW Kalimantan 431 MW Sulawesi 3239,6 MW Papua & Pabar 49 MW Maluku 156,4 MW JAWA 4.594,5 MW NTT 15 MW Hydro power development up to 2020 : 6,217 MW

8 HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Hydropower Fast Track Part (FTP) - II AGENDA Operasi Konstruksi Pendanaan Lelang Total Hydropower Non Fast Track Part (FTP-) II Operasi Konstruksi Pendanaan Lelang Total PLN IPP PLN IPP Hydropower Status - FTP-2: PLN : 1,266 MW IPP : 483 MW Total : 1,749 MW Hydropower Status - Non-FTP-2: PLN : 4,242 MW IPP : 1,975 MW Total : 6,217 MW

9 Geothermal Potential Map Sumber : Badan Geologi, KESDM (2010) Survei Pendahuluan Survei Detil Siap Dikembangkan Terpasang SUMBER DAYA CADANGAN % (MW) (MW) REFF-Burning Spekulatif Hipotesis Terduga Mungkin Terbukti (Speculative) (Hypothetical) (Possible) (Probable) (Proven) % % 54.64% Potential : 29,000 MW, 1,300 MW in operation 6,250 MW plan to be developed for the next 10 year ( PLN RUPTL ) 4,925 MW listed in the FTP -2

10 FTP II - GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (4.925 MW) PROJECTS GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS POTENTIALLY BE REALIZED AGENDA NO. OF PROJECTS CAPACITY( MW) PLN DAN (PLN + PGE) PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GEODIPA ENERGY CHEVRON DAN SOL (SARULLA O LTD) SUPREME ENERGY GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS NOT EASY TO BE REALIZED TECHNICAL AND COMMERCIAL ASPECTS SITED IN THE CONSERVATION AREA SUPREME ENERGY ; 30 % CHEVRON + SARULLA O. LTD (SOL) 30 % GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS POTENTIALLY BE REALIZED (45 %) PLN & (PLN + PGE) 8% PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY 19 % GEODIPA ENERGY 13 % GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS HARD TO BE REALIZED (55%) DEVELOPER S LACK OF EXPERIENCE TENDER NOT FINISHED PROPOSED IMPROVEMENT ON GEOTHERMAL FIELD (WKP) TENDER PROCESS TO ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT TENDER NOT FINISHED ; 31% TECHNICAL AND COMMERCIAL ASPECTS ; 9% SITED IN THE CONSERVATION AREA; 13% POSTPONE TENDER PROCESS UNTIL ALL PREPARATION IS READY EXPLORATION DRILLING TO INCREASE THE CERTAINTY OF RESERVE APPLYING STRINGENT PRE-QUALIFICATION ON TENDER PARTICIPANTS REGARDING THEIR FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL ASPECTS DEVELOPER LACK OF EXPERIENCE ; 47%

11 1000 ISLANDS PV DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Pengembangan PLTS NAD: 44 lokasi, 7.4 MWp Sumbar: 42 lokasi 7.7 MWp Sumut: 27 lokasi 6.1 MWp Riau: 151 lokasi 60.1 MWp Babel: 16 lokasi 35.0 MWp Kalbar: 63 lokasi 40.1 MWp Kaltim: 30 lokasi 24,9 MWp Sulut, Sulteng, Gorontalo: 39 lokasi 30.9 MWp Maluku, Malut: 29 lokasi 33.5 MWp Papua, Pabar: 66 lokasi 44.9 MWp Sumsel, Jambi, Bengkulu: 6 lokasi 3.4 MWp Lampung: 18 lokasi 2.5 MWp Kalselteng: 96 lokasi 48.7 MWp Sulselrabar: 17 lokasi 29.7 MWp Jabar, Banten: 3 lokasi 1.1 MWp Jateng DIY: 5 lokasi 0.7 MWp Jatim: 12 lokasi 4.3 MWp Bali: 1 lokasi 0.3 MWp NTB: 15 lokasi 44.5 MWp NTT: 99 lokasi 45.2 MWp PV Development Program up to 2020 : 620 MW

12 BIOMASS DEVELOPMENT PLANT Technol Circulating F Fuel: Calorific An abundant potential of Biomass using palm oil shell, bagasse, rice husk, municipal waste and wood chips. IPP participation will be encourage, either as an IPP or Excess Power. BUSAN 96 MW th RDF POWERFLUID Engineering and supply of core components PLN Pilot Plants of small scale Biomass Plant ( cap. 500 kw for the POWERFLUID CFB boiler of the Busan RDF Power Plant First RDF fired CFB in the Republic of Korea up to 1 MW ) using wood chip on progress. Custom POSCO En Busan / Re Steam o Steam p Steam te Page 36 Biomass development plan up to 2020 : 374 MW

13 REQUIRED REGULATION SKEMA PARTISIPASI SWASTA To accelerate the time required for permit process of using the forestry area. (Geothermal, Hydro and related transmission) Sincronization of the regulation and issuing of technical guidence for implementation of MoMR Decree No. 22/2012 about Geothermal FiT. Large scale Hydro power concession proposed to be issued through a competitive bidding by the Central/Local Government and the location permit will be issued for the selected Developer by the local Government. Mini Hydro location permit issued by the Local Government should be in-line with the optimum River Basin Master Plan. To accelerate the RE Development need regulation improvement. 13

14 Summary and Conclusion Utilization of Green Energy has been considered to be part of PLN scenario in securing electricity supply and becoming an environmentally friendly enterprise. To meet electricity demand, a total of 12 GW new additional RE plants has been planned for the next ten years and 55 % expected to be developed by private ( IPP ). Indonesia has abundant RE potential, as for supporting the energy conservation policy and to reduce oil consumption, Hydropower and Geothermal dominate the RE development program. PLN plan to developed Solar as an hybrid system with existing Diesel, Biomass or other RE potentials in a small islands, to respond with GOI policy to reduce oil consumption. To accelerate RE development need regulation improvement. 14

15 Terima Kasih 15