India and International Steel Trading
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1 Bhavyesh Shah Salzgitter Mannesmann Pentasteel International (India) Pvt. Ltd. India and International Steel Trading February INTERNATIONAL (INDIA) PVT. LTD. February
2 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply Demand Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Opportunities Threats Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 2
3 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply Demand Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 3
4 India has registered consistent growth in GDP over the past few years, and the trend is expected to continue into the future Indian GDP growth Percentage, y.o.y % 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% GDP Growth
5 which has resulted in a steady and consistent growth in demand of steel over the years Indian steel demand Million MT % % % 17 13% 10.6% % % Flat Long
6 Growth in demand is expected to continue with infrastructure investments planned in power, transport, oil, gas, and telecom amongst others Title Infrastructure spend is witnessing a dramatic growth in the 11 th five-year plan USD 365 bn investments planned, of which over USD 240 bn are expected to materialize Major investments planned in Power plants Road, rail and ports Oil and gas exploration and pipelines Sector wise investments USD billion Power Road Railways Irrigation Water Ports Airports Storage Telecom Gas Growth estimates for the next 10 years range from 6.5% to 12% from various sources Conservative estimates for 2020 range from 110 Million MT to 150 Million MT Per capita Steel consumption to rise from 50 kgs to 120 kgs
7 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply Demand Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 7
8 Steel production in India is now at a fast-paced growth trajectory, and, it is likely to continue. Approx 64 mt in mt in 1948 India gains independence in mt in mt in Enabled by India s Economic liberalization process
9 Recent growth in steel production is also quite healthy
10 Capacity Expansion Planned Over the Next Decade Source: News Articles Current Capacity Expansion planned Product Completion date (MMT) (MMT) SAIL Flat and Long 2015 JSW Flat and Long 2010, 2020 Tata Steel Flat and Long 2011, 2015 Essar Flat 2010/11, 2015 Ispat 3 2 Flat 2014 Jindal SPL 3 12 Flat and Long 2015 Bhushan Steel 1 4 Flat and Long 2011 Bhushan P&S 2 3 Flat and Long 2012 POSCO 0 12 Flat and Long?? Arcelor Mittal Flat and Long?? RINL 3 4 Long 2015 Uttam 0 2 Flat 2015 Numerous sub-2 MMT greenfield and brownfield projects are also in the pipeline 10
11 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry The domestic pricing challenge The way ahead for traders 11
12 What Factors Will Drive International Trading? Demand-Supply mismatch will continue Consistent increase in demand and periodic increase in Supply Seasonal demand changes in India Price competitiveness and international market scenario is an important factor Sometimes high prices by local mills during strong demand phases encourages a lot of imports Export led industries allow duty free import of raw materials Location Steel making capacity vs. consumption centers Logistics is still not efficient and quite expensive leading to a market for imports
13 Most of the capacity addition is concentrated in Eastern India due to easy availability of raw materials
14 India Steel Import/Export In Million MT Import Export Surplus/ Deficit
15 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 15
16 Short Case Example of China Since economic reforms in 1978 rapid expansion in the steel demand Large Scale Industrialization, Urbanization and Massive Investments in Infrastructure Steel Production Grew 7% in the 1980 s and 10% in the 1990 s and close to 20% in 2000 s!! Moved from being a net Importer of Steel to a Major Exporter of Steel with current capacity
17 China crude steel production vis-à-vis others
18 Chinese demand for steel is expected to remain robust Chinese Demand for Steel expected to remain strong for a few years before tapering down slightly India still in the initial growth phase significant growth in demand expected
19 Chinese Steel Production and Consumption
20 Learnings for India India s domestic production and demand also expected to increase drastically International Steel Trade to always help find the equilibrium between the domestic supply and demand in a growing Economy Exports as well as Imports to continue from India though in the long run once stabilization is achieved imports would reduce
21 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Opportunities Threats Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 21
22 Update on the Indian Trading Community Growth in India s steel trade has opened a host of opportunities for traders Apart from the Old Trading Houses, Many new Trading Houses - mainly focusing on supply from specific suppliers/markets (e.g. China, Japan, Korea, Russia) Volumes of Trade significantly increased, though style of trading has changed Many traders look to acquire mills/having backing from the mills as a steady supplier
23 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Opportunities Threats Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 23
24 International Trade of Steel: India Opportunities Huge market and growth potential still left in the markets Growth with a rate between 6 11% in most developing economies Heavy investments in infrastructure and construction expected to continue Many second tier buyers/sellers still untaped by international traders Relatively easy to enter for new players Quality and service in domestic market is more or less comparable to imported steel On the export front most Indian mills enjoy a good reputation in international markets With intermittent capacity addition and seasonal demand cycles, India will remain a export as well as import market for many years
25 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Opportunities Threats Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 25
26 International Trade of Steel: India Threats Tough competition due to the large number of players (local and international) Transparent markets: traders are forced to take positions Mills wishing to sell on a CFR basis: difficult to control shipment and dependence on one market Governments can implement new trade rules very quickly Many mills are getting more and more aggressive approaching final users directly Increased volatility in prices/demand and shortening of trade cycles
27 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 27
28 Difficulty in Domestic Pricing and Supply Information Accurate pricing and supply and information is a major problem in India No structured data on inventory at various levels in the stocking chain Benchmark pricing model still not successful in India due to no accurate reference price apart from mills list price Benchmark pricing helpful for various long term contracts - quite common on Europe especially for the automobile segment and alloyed grades Licenses in USA/EU is a good indicator to calculate the volume of imports expected to arrive This type of data can help smoothen the price volatility slightly
29 Discussion Agenda India steel: Demand and Supply What Factors will drive international trading? A short case example of steel trade in China Role of the trading community in the current steel industry Difficulty in domestic pricing and supply information The way ahead for traders 29
30
31 The Way Ahead for Traders Market dynamics became more and more difficult to predict : - Overcapacity - Speculative trading (possible future impact of paper market) - Regionalisation of trading flows - Trade policies (open markets vs protectionism) - Macroeconomics Steel prices have become highly volatile (good for trading, provided positions are carefully managed) with sometimes flat market with negligible sideways price movements and very few transactions. Back to Back trading when it works, else many traders have moved to taking positions Role of a trader now slightly overlapping with that of a stockist in terms of market risk/return Connect to captive sources - Develop strategic partnerships with customers and suppliers Constant analysis of markets (macroeconomics, supply/demand dynamics, inventories,...) in order to decide on positions and risk/reward 31
32
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