Water: The Environmental Outlook to 2050

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1 Water: The Environmental Outlook to 2050 Helen Mountford Deputy Director, OECD Environment Directorate OECD Global Forum on Environment: Making Water Reform Happen October 2011, Paris

2 OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Chapter

3 Presentation Outline Environmental Outlook: Key trends and projections Water demand Water stress Water pollution Access to water supply and sanitation Key messages and traffic lights Policy options: instruments for water policies Importance of water pricing 3

4 Projected Increase in Water Demand by 2050 Drivers of Demand 5,500 km 3 15% decrease 80% increase 55% increase OECD BRIICS RoW Overall Water demand will increase by 55% by % 400% 130% 140% -14% 3,500 km 3 Facing competing demands from other sectors, there will be little scope for expanding irrigation Overall Manufacturing Domestic Electricity Irrigation Growing demand from manufacturing, electricity and domestic use Irrigation Electricity Manufacturing Domestic Livestock

5 Water stress Under the Baseline, the number of people living in river basins under severe water stress is projected to more than double between , reaching 3.9 billion people Source: The Environmental Outlook Baseline projections; output from the IMAGE suite of models (PBL) 5

6 Population living under water stress 2000 (6.1 Bn) 2050 (9.2 Bn) People under no or low water stress 3.2 Bn 3.9 Bn People under medium water stress People under severe water stress = 200MM Nearly half of the world population is projected to live under severe water stress Bn OECD BRIICS RoW Water stress is projected to increase significantly and most of this increase occurs in BRIICS

7 1970 Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades Brazil 4.5 MM 1 MM China region India region Indonesia Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa Ukraine and C-Asia Sewage Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year) Phosphorus

8 1970 Brazil Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades 4.5 MM 1 MM China region India region Indonesia 2000 Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa Ukraine and C-Asia Sewage Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year) Phosphorus Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

9 1970 Brazil Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades 4.5 MM 1 MM China region India region Indonesia 2000 Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam 2030 Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa Ukraine and C-Asia Sewage Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year) Phosphorus Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

10 1970 Brazil Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades 4.5 MM 1 MM China region India region Indonesia 2000 Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam 2030 Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa 2050 Ukraine and C-Asia Sewage Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year) Phosphorus Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

11 1970 Brazil Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades 150 Kg 100 Kg China region India region Indonesia Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa Ukraine and C-Asia Agriculture Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Phosphorus

12 1970 Brazil Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades 150 Kg 100 Kg China region India region Indonesia 2000 Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa Ukraine and C-Asia Agriculture Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Phosphorus Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

13 1970 Brazil Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades 150 Kg 100 Kg China region India region Indonesia 2000 Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam 2030 Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa Ukraine and C-Asia Agriculture Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Phosphorus Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

14 1970 Brazil Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades 150 Kg 100 Kg China region India region Indonesia 2000 Japan and Korea Middle East Oceania OECD Europe OECD Nam 2030 Rest Africa Rest L-Am Rest SE Asia Russia region Southern Africa 2050 Ukraine and C-Asia Agriculture Nitrogen Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Phosphorus Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

15 2050 Level of pollution discharge in Oceans/Seas will increase in the coming decades Nitrogen Discharge (Tonnes per Year) 20 MM 5MM Phosphorus Discharge (Tonnes per Year) Arctic Ocean Atlantic Ocean Indian Ocean Medit + Black Pacific Ocean Arctic Ocean Atlantic Ocean Indian Ocean Medit + Black Pacific Ocean

16 Significant efforts have been made in improving access to improved sources of water, but Rural Urban 830MM Due to population growth and urbanisation, a large population will continue to lack access to improved sources of water Additional 1.8 bn provided access ( ) 240Mn with RoW being mainly affected around OECD BRIICS RoW

17 People lacking access to improved sanitation will continue to be a challenge 2.45Bn Rural Urban 1.5Bn Number of people lacking improved sanitation is projected to still be almost 1.5 billion in with 60% of them living in the ROW OECD BRIICS RoW

18 Key messages and traffic lights Traffic light Key messages Number of people living in river basins under severe water stress Increase in water demand Groundwater abstraction Number of people at risk of floods Restoration of surface and groundwater quality in OECD countries Deterioration of surface and groundwater quality outside the OECD Improved access to water supply and sanitation in BRIICS Number of people without access to water and sanitation in developing countries 18

19 Policy options Policy option Incentivise water use efficiency Measures/instruments Pricing, cut back perverse subsidies, coherence Invest in water storage innovatively Reconsider water allocation mechanisms Mitigate water related disasters Improve WW treatment, reduce run-off Accelerate WSS in developing countries Improve water governance for coherence Assess conflicts with environment Water rights reform, pricing Restore natural buffers, reconsider settlement Encourage R & D and speed-up diffusion Innovative expansion, PPP, ODA Engage stakeholders, share innovative models 19

20 The importance of pricing: water conservation (% ownership against water fee structure) Source: OECD (2011), Greening Household Behaviour: The Role of Public Policy

21 Thank you! 21

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