CUBAN ENERGY REVOLUTION AND FUTURE ROLE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

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2 CUBAN ENERGY REVOLUTION AND FUTURE ROLE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY REFORM Group Meeting Salzburg 215 Jyrki Luukkanen Research Director Finland Futures Research Centre University of Turku

3 Contents Cuban development and energy use Cuban energy revolution Drivers of CO 2 emissions Future energy scenarios for Cuba Vazquez, L., Luukkanen, J., Kaisti, H., Käkönen, M. and Majanne, Y. (215) Decomposition analysis of Cuban energy production and use: Analysis of energy transformation for sustainability. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 49 (215) ISSN:

4 Cuban development Prior to the Cuban revolution in 1959, about half of the households were connected to electricity grid. By 1989, this number had risen to 95 per cent Trade with Soviet Union essential for Cuban economic development Collapse of Soviet Union > Huge impact on Cuban economy Billion 25 USD GDP in Cuba

5 Cuban energy use ktoe 5 Primary energy use in Cuba Coal Oil Biofuel Natural gas Reduction of Soviet oil import 1991 Import of Venezuelan oil Reduction in sugar production reduced biomass use (bagasse)

6 Cuban energy production Mtoe 7 Fossil fuel production, import and export in Cuba, Production Imports Exports -1 Crude oil Oil products Natural gas

7 Cuban energy production ktoe 4 Oil and gas production in Cuba Oil Gas

8 Cuban energy problems In the early-2s Cuba s energy situation was bleak Cuba had centralized and inefficient power plants 11 thermoelectric plants that functioned about half of the time. Use of poor quality fuel with high content of sulphur. There were frequent blackouts and high transmission line losses In 24 hurricanes in Cuba, a million people without electricity for 1 days Decision to start energy revolution

9 Revolución Energética Energy Revolution (i) Energy efficiency and conservation; (ii) Increasing the availability and reliability of the national grid; (iii) Incorporating more renewable energy technologies into its energy portfolio; (iv) Increasing the exploration and production of local oil and gas; (v) International co-operation.

10 Revolución Energética Energy Revolution Change over to energy efficient appliances. Households switched incandescent light bulbs to more efficient compact fluorescents free of charge. 2 million refrigerators and one million fans were replaced, 3.5 million rice cookers and 3 million pressure cookers were bought New residential electricity tariff was introduced to encourage electricity saving

11 Efficiency improvement Switch from kerosene to electric cooking

12 Energy efficiency Reduction in LPG use Rice cookers Pressure cookers

13 Revolución Energética Energy Revolution ktoe 35 Residential energy consumption in Cuba Oil products Biofuel Electricity

14 Solar development Solar PV development Two large scale solar PV plants 1 MW + 1 MW

15 Wind power capacity 12 MW in 214

16 Revolución Energética Energy Revolution Not much impact on industrial energy use No special measures in industry ktoe 5 Fuel and electricity consumption in Cuban industry Oil products Natural gas Biofuels Electricity

17 Electricity

18 Electricity GWh 18 Electricity production in Cuba Oil Gas Hydro Biofuel Solar Wind

19 Electricity ktoe 14 Electricity consumption in different sectors in Cuba Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture forestry Electricity is increasingly used in the residential sector

20 Renewable energy target Target of supplying 24% of electricity needs from renewables by 23 Plans for rapid increase in wind power and solar PV Bioenergy has large potential, but not much investment plans Energy efficiency improvements are seen as one means of reducing the demand

21 Decomposition of CO 2 emissions Mton CO 2 change from Cuba, factors affecting CO 2 emissions CO2/TPES TPES/FEC FEC/GDP GDP/POP POP Total change in CO Shift to more fossil fuel use 2. Decreasing transformation efficiency 3. Improving efficiency of economic production 4. Increasing GDP

22 25 % Share of electricity of final energy consumption in Cuba 2 % 15 % 1 % 5 % %

23 Future scenarios for Cuba Mill. USD Value added (GDP) Cuba Scenarios constructed with LINDA model Business-as-usual with fossil energy Commercial Industry GWh 45 Agriculture and forestry 4 Electricity consumption in Cuba Losses Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture forestry

24 BAU fossil scenario ktoe Industrial energy use in Cuba ktoe 2 Transport energy use in Cuba 9. Natural gas Biofuel Electricity Crudel Oil Petroleum products Coal Diesel Gasoline ktoe 45 Residential energy use in Cuba Coal Biofuel Electricity Petroleum products

25 BAU scenario with fossil fuel ktoe Fuel use in Cuba Natural gas Fuel oil Coal Oil and Petroleum products Biofuels Increase in CO 2 emissions Mtons of CO2 CO 2 emissions from fuels Natural gas Fuel oil Coal Petroleum products

26 Scenario with renewables and improved efficiency Similar economic development GWh Electricity consumption in Cuba Losses Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture forestry Lower growth in electricity demand (35 TWh instead of 4 TWh) due to improved efficiency Large increase in wind power and solar PV production Considerable increase in bioenergy production

27 Renewables and energy efficiency scenario ktoe 2 Fuel use in Cuba 18 Natural gas Fuel oil 12 1 Coal Considerable reduction in CO 2 emissions from 45 Mton to 32 Mton Oil and Petroleum products Biofuels Mtons of CO CO 2 emissions from fuels Natural gas Fuel oil Coal 1 5 Petroleum products

28 Conclusions There is considerable potential in renewable development in Cuba Large investments are needed with increasing energy demand in order to reduce CO 2 emissions Development of domestic oil and gas resources may hinder renewable development especially if import substitution or export revenues are possible

29 Thank you Jyrki Luukkanen Research Director Finland Futures Research Centre University of Turku

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