September 2006 Urban Transport for sustainable cities: Shaping cities for and with people Lessons learned from France

Transcription

1 Feasibility Study for a Public Transport System for Damascus September 2006 Urban Transport for sustainable cities: Shaping cities for and with people Lessons learned from France

2 Study Tasks Task 1 Selection of Corridor (s) Ranked classification of corridors Selection of priority corridor(s) FASEP Task 2 Task 3 Selection of Alternatives Evaluation of Alternatives Selection of three technologies to be evaluated for the priority corridor(s) General Master Plan for the Mass Public Transit System Priority corridor and technology selection Next Next steps steps Task 4 Task 5 Development of Proposal Implementation Strategy Operational design of the priority corridor Implementation action plan

3 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Demand Forecasts. Damascus Population and Employment Projections Damascus Governorate Inhabitants (million) Employment (million) 1.0 Damascus rural areas Public transport trips (boarding do nothing supply scenario)

4 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Procedure for Selecting Priority Mass Transit Corridors Identify elemental corridors Analyze elemental corridors and assemble into transport corridors Select potential mass transit corridors Select priority mass transit corridors Criteria for Identifying Elemental Corridors Cover the totality of densely urbanized areas Follow main transport right of ways Cover desired transport lines (most important origins and destinations) Avoid, to the extent possible, antiquities sites

5 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Urbanized Areas in Study area Urbanized Areas in Damascus Governorate

6 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Primary Road Network System Road to Ma'raba, At Tal Road to Aleppo Beirut Road Fayez Mansoor Street Road to Zabadani, Beirut Hafez El Assad Road Othman Bin 'Affan Street International Airport Road Road to Qatana Arterial distributor Main distributor Secondary distributor

7 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Desired Transport Lines in Damascus Governorate (78800) (19900) (18900) (61900) (69600) (37800) (58100) 8300 (6000) 6 5 Radial desired lines (1400) (4100) 7500 (5700) (8900) 700 (500) 2700 (2000) (7200) (23600) 8500 (6700) 7500 (5700) 7400 (5700) (27900) 6 4 Concentric desired lines (25900) (22900) 3800 (2500) 9900 (7300) 4500 (3300) 3800 (2900) 5300 (3900) 900 (700) (8200) (28200) (12500) (10700) 2000 (1500) (23900) 5400 (3900) 3700 (2700)

8 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Elemental Corridors 146 elemental corridors were selected Coverage of Elemental Corridors

9 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Proposed Mass Transit Lines to evaluate Barzeh Green Line - 1: Mezzeh Qaboun Red Line 2: Barzeh Mukhayyan Blue Line 3: Kadam Jaubar Orange Line 4: Dummar Jaramana Qabou n Green Line 1 Green Line 1 Dummar Red Line 2 Red Line 2 Orange Line 4 Orange Line 4 Jaubar Blue Line 3 Blue Line 3 Green Line 1 Green Line 1 Mezzeh Orange Line 4 Orange Line 4 Blue Line 3 Blue Line 3 Red Line 2 Red Line 2 Kadam Mukhayya n Jaramana Not at scale

10 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Population 900,000 and 800, ,000 Employment 600,000 within the 500,000 Area of 400, ,000 Influence of 200,000 Mass Transit 100,000 0 Lines Green Line Red Line Blue Line Orange Line Employment Population Red Line and Green Line have the highest coverage Area of influence: 470 meters at both sides of the line s axis.

11 Task 1 : Selection of corridors 867 2, , Morning Peak Hour Microbuses by Mass Transit Line 688 1, , ,500 4,000 3, , ,500 4,460 2,000 3, , ,640 2,780 1, Green Line Red Line Blue Line Orange 289 Line , , ,430 Not at scale 565 Green Line and Red Line are the most heavily used public transport corridors

12 Task 1 : Selection of corridors Mass Transit Line by Distribution of Alignment by Possible Level of Insertion Difficulty 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Green Line Red Line Blue Line Orange Line Very High High Medium Low Very Low Green Line and Red Line would have the least insertion difficulties

13 the Green Line and, the Red Line were chosen as priority mass transit corridors. Task 1 : Selection of corridors After analyses of socioeconomic, total and public transport traffic, fic, and physical conditions of corridors, Green Line 1 Green Line 1 Dummar Orange Line 4 Orange Line 4 Mezzeh Red Line 2 Red Line 2 Barzeh Green Line - 1: Mezzeh Qaboun Red Line 2: Barzeh Mukhayyan Blue Line 3: Kadam Jaubar Orange Line 4: Dummar Jaramana Qabou n Green Line 1 Green Line 1 Jaubar Blue Line 3 Blue Line 3 Orange Line 4 Orange Line 4 Blue Line 3 Blue Line 3 Red Line 2 Red Line 2 Kadam Mukhayya n Jaramana Not at scale

14 Task 2 : Selection of alternatives Contrasted analysis of five technologies Bus (standard and articulated) Trolleybus Tramway Light rail metro Heavy rail metro Selection of three technologies per corridor Study of the three technologies (Alternative = 1 corridor+1 technology)

15 Task 2 : Selection of alternatives Contrasted Analysis of technologies Selection Criteria Systems Capacity Insertion Possibility Proven Technology Possibility to Expand Multiple Suppliers Standard bus on busway Articulated bus on busway Trolleybus Tramway Light rail metro Heavy rail metro

16 Task 2 : Selection of alternatives Selected Technologies and corridors Corridors Green Line Red Line Technologies Tramway Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro Integration Fully At - Grade Partially At-Grade Fully separated Fully separated In total 8 alternatives analyzed BRT is an alternative based on articulated buses operating on fully separated lanes. It cannot be integrated through Old Damascus area.

17 Mass Transit Systems Passenger Forecasts Corredor / Technology Morning Peak Hour Daily Morning Peak Hour Daily Morning Peak Hour Daily Green Line Tramway at-grade 9, ,608 13, ,093 14, ,939 Tramway Partially At-Grade 10, ,754 15, ,161 16, ,259 Light Rail Metro 11, ,292 17, ,291 17, ,201 Heavy Rail Metro 11, ,292 17, ,291 17, ,201 Red Line Tramway at-grade 6, ,168 9, ,015 6, ,456 Tramway Partially At-Grade 7, ,308 10, ,237 7, ,857 Light Rail Metro 8, ,394 11, ,410 8, ,529 Heavy Rail Metro 8, ,394 11, ,410 8, ,529 Source: Own estimates. JICA model from Study on Urban Transportation Planning for Damascus City Traffic counts and surveys (BCEOM) Assumes: 2005: Green Line or Red Line only 2010: Green Line and Red Line 2020: Green Line, Red Line and other mass transit services. If no other mass transit services, the minimum morning peak hour and direction passengers increase to: Green Line: 23,300 Red Line: 10,600 Note: Morning peak hour : In direction towards Damascus

18 Tramway Alignment Two vertical alignment options Fully At-Grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Tramway Several horizontal alignment options in the Green Line

19 Tramway Alignment Options Legend: Old Town Gardens and parks Residential Commercial and residential Souks and shops Government offices Cultural Industrial Alignment Optional Alignment Station

20 Tramway Alignment in the Centre Area POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF START/END TUNNEL OF TUNNEL POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF START/END TUNNEL OF TUNNEL POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF TUNNEL START/END OF TUNNEL Green Line Fully At-Grade: 15.4 km Partially At-Grade At-grade section: 11.5 km Underground: 3.3 POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF START/END TUNNEL OF TUNNEL POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF START/END TUNNEL OF TUNNEL Legend: Old Town Gardens and parks Residential Commercial and residential Souks and shops Government offices Cultural Industrial Alignment Optional Alignment Station POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF START/END TUNNEL Feasibility Study for a Mass Transit System OF TUNNEL for Damascus Red Line Fully At-Grade: 10.5 km Partially At-Grade At-grade section: 7.1 km Underground: 3.4

21 Tramway Typical Cross Sections Faez Mansour Motorway, Faculty of Letters 29th May Street Actual cross section Project Cross section Central Integration Lateral station

22 Examples of Possible At-Grade Tramway Insertions Halab Street Abdel Rahman Ghafiki Street

23 Metro Alignments POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF VIADUCT START/END OF VIADUCT POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF TBM TUNNEL START/END AND OF TBM BEGIN/END TUNNEL AND OF CUT AND BEGIN/END COVER TUNNEL OF CUT AND COVER TUNNEL POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF VIADUCT START/END OF VIADUCT POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF START/END TBM TUNNEL OF TBM TUNNEL Green Line: At-grade section: 2.6 km Elevated: 3.2 km Cut and cover tunnel: 2.5 km TBM tunnel: 6.5 km POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF TBM TUNNEL START/END AND OF TBM BEGIN/END TUNNEL AND OF CUT AND BEGIN/END COVER TUNNEL OF CUT AND COVER TUNNEL POSSIBLE START/END POSSIBLE OF TBM TUNNEL START/END AND OF TBM BEGIN/END TUNNEL AND OF CUT AND BEGIN/END COVER TUNNEL OF CUT AND COVER TUNNEL Legend: Old Town Gardens and parks Residential Commercial and residential Souks and shops Government offices Cultural Industrial TBM tunnel Cut and cover tunnel Viaduct At Grade Feasibility Study for Station a Mass Transit System for Damascus Red Line: Cut and cover tunnel: 7.4 km TBM tunnel: 3.0 km

24 Metro Alignments in Centre Areas Legend: Old Town Gardens and parks Residential Commercial and residential Souks and shops Government offices Cultural Industrial TBM tunnel Cut and cover tunnel Viaduct At Grade Station

25 Description Insertion and infrastructure Operation Costs General quality Implementation issues

26 Assumptions Alternatives are evaluated within an integrated and reorganised route network Microbuses are assigned to feeder routes

27 Corridor/Technology Length (kms) Stations Average Distance Between Stations Insertion Method Use of Right of Way Energy Platform width (m) At- Grade Insertion (kms) Green Line Corridor Tramway at-grade Fully At- Grade Shared at intersections Electric 750 V. Catenaries Tramway Partially At-Grade Partially At-Grade Partially shared at intersections Electric 750 V. Catenaries Insertion and Infrastructure Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro Fully Separated Fully Separated Not shared Not shared Electric 750 V. Third rail Electric 750 V. Third rail Red Line Corridor Tramway at-grade Fully At- Grade Shared at intersections Electric 750 V. Catenaries Tramway Partially At-Grade Partially At-Grade Partially shared at intersections Electric 750 V. Catenaries Light Rail Metro Fully Separated Not shared Electric 750 V. Third rail Heavy Rail Metro Fully Separated Not shared Electric 750 V. Third rail

28 Operational Characteristics Corridor/Technology Peak Hour and Direction Demand (2010) Peak Period Headway (2010 in minutes) Commercial Speed (km/h) Number of Trains (2010) Length of Train (m) Train Capacity Train Kilometres (million in 2010) Seat Kilometres (million in 2010) Green Line Corridor Tramway at-grade 13, ,901 Tramway Partially At-Grade 15, ,130 Light Rail Metro 17, ,107 Heavy Rail Metro 17, , ,575 Red Line Corridor Tramway at-grade 9, ,293 Tramway Partially At-Grade 10, ,406 Light Rail Metro 11, ,645 Heavy Rail Metro 11, , ,874

29 Cost Characteristics Corridor/Technology Green Line Corridor Investment Costs Line Work (M USD) Total (M USD) Investment Costs per Km of Line Line Work (M USD) Total (M USD) Annual Operating and Maintenance Costs (2010) Total (M USD) Per Seat Km Offered Per Passenger Tramway at-grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Light Rail Metro , Heavy Rail Metro , Red Line Corridor Tramway at-grade Tramway Partially At-Grade 128, Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro 528,

30 General Quality Characteristics Corridor/Technology Reliability Comfort Green Line Corridor Waiting Time Expansion Flexibility Tramway at-grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro Red Line Corridor Tramway at-grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro

31 Easiness of Implementation Corridor/Technology Complexity of Technology Institutional Change Initial Resources Duration of Construction Green Line Corridor Tramway at-grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro Red Line Corridor Tramway at-grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro

32 Results Technical and environmental aspects Economic aspects Financial aspects

33 Technical and Environmental Aspects The metro alternatives Are more attractive in terms of insertion, infrastructure, general quality and environmental impacts Surpass the demands needs of the next twenty years, if other mass s transit services are also built Are several orders of magnitude more expensive than the tramway alternatives Phase important implementation obstacles to overcome The tramway alternatives Are least expensive and phase lower implementation obstacles Service demand needs to acceptable levels, if other mass transit services are also built; otherwise, they would phase capacity limitations With the inclusion of cut and cover tunnel sections and creative urban insertion, can reduce the insertion, infrastructure, operations and environmental impacts drawbacks

34 Economic Aspects The Green Line is the preferred corridor The preferred technology is the Fully At-Grade Tramway But the Partially At- Grade Tramway is also acceptable The metro alternatives for the Green Line may also be acceptable with the inclusion of non- quantified benefits Corredor / Technology Green Line Tramway at-grade % Tramway Partially At-Grade % Light Rail Metro % Heavy Rail Metro % Red Line Tramway at-grade % Tramway Partially At-Grade % Light Rail Metro % Heavy Rail Metro % NPV at a 12% discount rate. Source: Own estimates. Net Present Value - NPV (Million USD) Benefit Cost Ratio - B/C Internal Rate of Return - IRR

35 Financial Aspects Tariffs (in USD) Public: If the Tariff Operating Costs is applied, investments will need to be fully financed with public subsidies Operating concession Private with subsidy: If the Tariff Covering Equipment Operating Costs is applied, civil works will need to be financed with public subsidies Private without subsidy: If the Tariff Covering All Costs is applied, no public subsidies are needed Global BOT Corridor / Technological Alternatives Green Line Tariff - Covering Operating costs Tariff - Covering Equipement and Operating Costs Tariff - Covering all Costs At-Grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Tramway Light rail Metro System Heavy rail Metro System Red Line At-Grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Tramway Light rail Metro System Heavy rail Metro System

36 Financial Aspects Government Subsidy (million USD) at a fare set of USD Technology Green Line Red Line Total Annual Total Annual Fully at-grade Tramway Partially At-Grade Tramway Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro 1, Current Governorate of Damascus road budget: USD 30 million With the exception of possibly Hong Kong, all mass transit projects require government commitment and they are justified based on their social benefits, not their financial performance.

37 Comparative Analysis Green line mass transit alternatives Red Line mass transit alternatives Comparison of Green Line and Red Line

38 Green Line Mass Transit Alternatives Evaluation Element Fully At- Grade Tramway Partially At- Grade Tramway Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro Improvement of the Transport Organization Satisfy public transport demand (2005 daily boarding) 263, , , ,292 Constitute a credible public transport alternative Train comfort High High High High Station comfort High High High High Speed Low Medium High High Easy of displacement Medium Medium Low Low Enhancement of the Urban Environment Contribute to the renovation of central areas High Medium Low Low Contribute to maintaining the city's cultural heritage Low Medium High High Contribute to the preservation of the environment Low Medium High High Viability of Implementation Optimal use of limited resources Investment costs ( million USD net of interests) ,025 Net Present Value (million USD) IRR 19.7% 18.3% 9.4% 8.7% Within Institutional and technical capabilities High Medium Low Low Social acceptability Fare to cover operating costs Fare to cover operating and equipment costs Fare to cover total costs Financial viability (M USD subsidy at a fare of USD 0.20) ,016 Source: Own estimates.

39 Metro Alternatives in the Green Line The Light Rail Metro can be scaled down to demand needs and reduce investment costs and expand as needed Both systems constitute credible public transport alternatives The metro alternative would better maintain the existing urban structure, while positively contributing to reducing air and noise pollutions with few negative environmental impacts

40 Tramway Alternative in the Green Line Tramway also constitutes credible public transport alternative The insertion of a tramway at-grade could serve as a catalyst for the renovation of central areas. Tunnel sections would reduce the negative environmental impacts in the critical areas For a successful tramway insertion in Damascus, other mass transit services and traffic management initiatives are required

41 The same conclusions are drawn: Task 3 : Evaluation of alternatives Tramway has lower costs than metro alternatives, but Metro alternatives offer better service and enhancement of the urban environment. Red Line Mass Transit Alternatives Evaluation Element Fully At- Grade Tramway Partially At- Grade Tramway Light Rail Metro Heavy Rail Metro Improvement of the Transport Organization Satisfy public transport demand (2005 daily boarding) 200, , , ,394 Constitute a credible public transport alternative Train comfort High High High High Station comfort High High High High Speed Low Medium High High Easy of displacement Medium Medium Low Low Enhancement of the Urban Environment Contribute to the renovation of central areas High Medium Low Low Contribute to maintaining the city's cultural heritage Low Medium High High Contribute to the preservation of the environment Low Medium High High Viability of Implementation Optimal use of limited resources Investment costs ( million USD net of interests) Net Present Value (million USD) IRR 9.7% 7.5% 0.5% 0.0% Within Institutional and technical capabilities High Medium Low Low Social acceptability Fare to cover operating costs Fare to cover operating and equipment costs Fare to cover total costs Financial viability (M USD subsidy at a fare of USD 0.20) Source: Own estimates.

42 Comparison of Green Line and Red Line Evaluation Elements of the Fully At-Grade Tramway for the Green Line and the Red Line The Green Line appears to have more attractive elements than the Red Line as priority mass transit corridor Evaluation Element Green Line Red Line Improvement of the Transport Organization Satisfy public transport demand (2005 daily boarding) 263, ,168 Constitute a credible public transport alternative Train comfort High High Station comfort High High Speed Low Low Easy of displacement Medium Medium Enhancement of the Urban Environment Contribute to the renovation of central areas High High Contribute to maintaining the city's cultural heritage Low Low Contribute to the preservation of the environment Low Low Viability of Implementation Optimal use of limited resources Investment costs ( million USD net of interests) Net Present Value (million USD) IRR 19.7% 9.7% Within Institutional and technical capabilities High High Social acceptability Fare to cover operating costs Fare to cover operating and equipment costs Fare to cover total costs Financial viability (M USD subsidy at a fare of USD 0.20) Source: Own estimates.

43 In Conclusion the metro systems Cost more but are more attractive in terms of technical characteristics. ristics. Of the two metro system evaluated, the Light Rail System offers the same benefits than the Heavy rail but with lower investment costs. In addition, the Light Rail Metro can start up with low capacities adjusted to demand needs, and expand. Are more appropriate in a city with high investment capabilities and with dense public transport corridors or with high growth expectations. They promote economies of concentration and dynamism to the city and its activities. Their main risks are related with the uncertainties of tunnel construction and, in general, the construction and operation of a more complex technology, and with its high investment costs.

44 In Conclusion the tramway system Cost less but is also less attractive in terms of technical characteristics. acteristics. Its reduced carrying capacity, when compared with the metro system. It would be more appropriate when its part of an urban development strategy aimed at maintaining the city character, with slow growth, promotion of pedestrian facilities and other urban amenities. Complemented with traffic management initiatives and other mass transit services. Its main risks are associated with its lower carrying capacity and a limited expansion capabilities, with a theoretical maximum capacity close e to 18,000 passengers per hour and direction and with its difficulty to upgrade to higher capacity systems. In this context, if this technology is implemented, then other mass m transit services, particularly commuter rail and express bus services to suburban communities and traffic management initiatives should be carefully ly planned and realized.

45 Decision and next Steps The Damascus Governorate selected the alternative light rail metro technology on the Green Line corridor. The European Investment Bank decided to launch a tender for a technical assistance to specify the subsequent steps of the project preparation.

46 THANK YOU