Container Forecaster & Annual Review 2016/17. Quarter 3 October 2016

Transcription

1 Container Forecaster & Annual Review 2016/17 Quarter 3 October 2016

2 Contents 1 Executive Summary summary 2 Light Carrier at industry the end of moves the tunnel towards 2 unsustainable losses 2 2 World container Container trade Trade and port Port volumes Volumes 7 General Demand Demand developments Developments 7 Asia Forecasts 11 9 Europe Asia The Europe Americas The Rest Americas of the World Middle East / South Asia Top 40 Container Ports in Transhipment trends trade route volumes 28 3 Supply-demand Supply-Demand balance Balance Forecast Containership containership fleet Fleet Development development Supply and Demand demand Developments developments Trade route Route analysis Analysis East-West Axis axis overview Overview Transpacific Trade Asia-North Europe Trade 57 Asia-Mediterranean Transatlantic Trade North-South Trades / Overview ECSA East Coast Trades South America WCSA W Coast Trades S America / Oceania Australasian South African Trades trades South West African trades Trades West Intra-Asian African trade Trades routes Freight rates Rates and Carrier carrier Financials financials Freight Rate rate developments Developments and Forecasts forecasts Industry profitability Profitability and Financial financial trends Trends The charter Charter market Market and S&P 106 and S&P 101 Market No drivers Heads in sight for Rocks, for Ships market to upturn Head for Beaches Appendices (provided in Excel) Trade capacity and service summary tables (EW/NS 1Q16) (EW/MEISC 3Q16) CF1Q16 Appendices 1-5 CF3Q16 Appendices 1-7 Research team Neil Dekker - Container Research Director dekker@drewry.co.uk dekker@drewry.co.uk Simon Heaney Simon Heaney heaney@drewry.co.uk Kanika heaney@drewry.co.uk Batura Kanika kanika@drewry.co.uk Batura Subrata kanika@drewry.co.uk Behera Subrata behera@drewry.co.uk Behera behera@drewry.co.uk Ruby Tomar Himanshu tomar@drewry.co.uk Dhingra dhingra@drewry.co.uk Shailly Pandit Ruby pandit@drewry.co.uk Tomar David Poore tomar@drewry.co.uk poore@drewry.co.uk Shailly Pandit Anurag Kumar anurag@drewry.co.uk pandit@drewry.co.uk Research Publisher & team Editorial cont ddirector David Patrick Poore Neylan poore@drewry.co.uk neylan@drewry.co.uk Anurag Kumar anurag@drewry.co.uk Publisher & Editorial Director: Patrick Neylan neylan@drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Research Drewry Christopher Maritime Street, Research London Christopher EC2A 2BSStreet, London Tel: +44 EC2A (0) 20 2BS Tel: Fax: (0) (0) Fax: enquiries@drewry.co.uk +44 (0) enquiries@drewry.co.uk Container Forecaster 3Q 2016 Drewry

3 Tables and Figures Listings TABLES Table 2.1 Monthly Growth In Throughput Volumes...7 Table 2.2 Estimated Annual Growth In Container Activity By Region (Change In Total Port Handling)...9 Table 2.3 Estimated Annual Growth In Container Activity By Region ( 000 Teu Of Port Handling, Including Empties And Transhipment)...10 Table 2.4 Forecast Development Of World Container Traffic...11 Table 2.5 Forecast Base-Case, Medium-Term Container Activity By Region ( 000 Teu Of Port Handling, Including Empties And Transhipment)...12 Table 2.6 Quarterly Forecast Of Container Growth By Region (Change In Total Port Handling)...13 Table 2.7 Quarterly Forecast Of Container Activity By Region ( 000 Teu Of Port Handling, Including Empties And Transhipment)...14 Table 2.8 Chinese Regional Throughput, Split Into International And Domestic Volumes, Table 2.9 China Manufacturing Outlook Summary...15 Table 2.10 Share Of Foreign Import/Export Volumes Among Top 8 Chinese Ports, Table 2.11 International And Domestic Cargo Volumes Of Top Eight Chinese Ports, Table 2.12 Comparison Between Chinese And Global Port Growth...17 Table 2.13 Annual Growth In Foreign Containerised Trade Of Top 8 Chinese Ports...17 Table 2.14 Monthly Growth In Container Throughput At Chinese Ports...18 Table 2.15 Real GDP Growth In Major Economies (% Change Over The Previous Period)...19 Table 2.16 Consumer Confidence Snapshot...19 Table 2.17 Forecast Base-Case, Medium-Term Growth In Container Activity By Region (Change In Total Port Handling)...20 Table 2.18 Fading Prominence Of Singapore Port...22 Table 2.19 Estimated Development Of Container Transhipment Activity By Region...23 Table 2.20 Estimated Development Of Global Empty And Transhipment Volumes, Table 2.21 Calls By Major Carriers & Alliances At Main Hub Ports, Table 2.22 Estimated Transhipment Volumes At Main Hub Ports, Table 2.23 World Container Trades In 2015 By Route...29 Table 3.1 World Cellular Containership Fleet By Size Range...30 Table 3.2 Recent Developments Of World Cellular Container Fleet...31 Table 3.3 Historical Cellular Containership Fleet Development Table 3.4 Containerships Keep Getting Bigger...31 Table 3.5 Container Fleet Ownership Splits As Of 1 July Table 3.6 Top 20 Independent Shipowners, July Table 3.7 Top 20 Ocean Carrier Owned Fleets, July Table 3.8 Unadjusted Containership Orderbook By Size And Scheduled Delivery Year...36 Table 3.9 Recent Container Asset Market Activity...36 Table 3.10 Sales For Demolition, Table 3.11 Forecast Adjusted Containership Fleet Development...37 Table 3.12 Vessel Delivery Schedule For Table 3.13 Adjusted Global Containership Orderbook, Table 3.14 East-West Headhaul Supply-Demand Balance And Utilisation, Table 3.15 North-South Headhaul Supply-Demand Balance And Utilisation, Table 3.16 Global Headhaul Supply-Demand Balance And Utilisation, Table 3.17 North-South Backhaul Supply-Demand Balance And Utilisation, Table 3.18 East-West Backhaul Supply-Demand Balance And Utilisation, Container Forecaster 3Q 2016 Drewry

4 Tables and Figures Listings TABLES Table 3.19 Global Backhaul Supply-Demand Balance And Utilisation Factors, Table 3.20 East-West Trades Slow Steaming Monitor (Number Of Weekly Strings)...42 Table 3.21 North-South Trades Slow Steaming Monitor (Number Of Weekly Strings)...44 Table 3.22 Forecast Global Supply-Demand Balance (End-Period)...45 Table 3.23 Forecast Development East-West Headhaul Supply-Demand Balance...46 Table 3.24 Missed Sailings On East-West Trades, Table 3.25 Missed Sailings On North-South Trades, Table 3.26 Estimated Global Idle Fleet, 12 September Table 3.27 Global Summary Of Idle Fleet...47 Table 4.1 Effective Capacity On Headhaul East-West Trades...49 Table 4.2 Summary Of Selected Major East-West Services, Quarter By Quarter, Commencing 3Q Table 4.3 Development Of East-West Trade Profiles, 1Q14 To 3Q Table 4.4 Development Of Transpacific Capacity, Table 4.5 Development In Transpacific Services 3Q16 And 4Q Table 4.6 Transpacific Trade Forecast Cargo Volumes, Table 4.7 Transpacific Supply-Demand Position, Table 4.8 Development In Asia-North Europe Services 3Q16 And 4Q Table 4.9 Development Of North Europe-Far East Capacity, Table 4.10 Forecast Development Of North Europe-Far East Container Trade Volumes Table 4.11 North Europe-Far East Trade Supply-Demand Position, Table 4.12 Development Of Services In Asia-Med Trades, 3Q16 And 4Q Table 4.13 Development Of Mediterranean-Far East Trade Capacity...62 Table 4.14 Asia-Med Trade Estimated And Forecast Containerised Cargo Volumes, Table 4.15 Asia-Med Trade Estimated Supply-Demand Position Table 4.16 Developments In The North Europe Transatlantic Trade, 3Q16 And 4Q Table 4.17 Development Of Transatlantic Capacity, Table 4.18 Transatlantic Trade Forecast Containerised Cargo Volumes By Quarter, Table 4.19 Transatlantic Trade Supply-Demand Position, Table 4.20 Development Of North-South Trade Profiles, 1Q14 To 3Q Table 4.21 Summary Of Selected Major North-South Services, Quarter By Quarter, Commencing 3Q Table 4.22 Developments In The North South Trade, 3Q16 And 4Q Table 4.23 Development Of N Europe And Mediterranean-East Coast South America Capacity Table 4.24 Development Of Asia-East Coast South America Capacity Table 4.25 N Europe And Mediterranean-East Coast South America Trade Forecast Containerised Volumes, Table 4.26 Asia-East Coast South America Trade Estimated Half-Yearly Supply-Demand Position ( ) Adjusted For Out-Of-Scope Cargo Of 0.4% Southbound And 1.9% Northbound Trades...76 Table 4.27 N Europe And Mediterranean-East Coast South America Trade Estimated Half-Yearly Supply-Demand Position Adjusted For Out-Of-Scope Cargo Of 11.4% Southbound And 31.2% Northbound Trades...76 Table 4.28 Asia-East Coast South America Trade Forecast Containerised Volumes (Half-Yearly), Table 4.29 China s Imports (Teu) From South East Asian Countries: Jan-June 2015 & Table 4.30 Exports (Teu) From China To North And South East Asia Jan-June 2016 Versus Table 4.31 Selected Intra-Asian Volumes (Teu), 1H16 Versus 1H Container Forecaster 3Q 2016 Drewry

5 Tables and Figures Listings TABLES Table 4.32 Selected Intra-Asian Services Launched Since January Table 4.33 Orderbook For Intra-Asian Operators For Own Account, July Table 4.34 Annual Carryings Of Intra-Asian Operators, Table 4.35 Hanjin Fleet Ownership, July Table 4.36 Hanjin Operated Ships, Position At Busan As Of 29 Sept, Table 4.37 Hanjin Ship Deployment And Service Partners, As Of August 2016*...88 Table 5.1 Historical Estimated Average Unit Rate, East-West Container Market, Table 5.2 Forecast Estimated Average Unit Rate, East-West Container Market*...91 Table 5.3 Forecast Estimated Average Unit Rate, Global Container Market*...91 Table 5.4 Hanjin Shipping Volumes, Revenue By Trade Table 5.5 Carryings Of Selected Carriers, ( 000 Teu)...97 Table 5.6 Financial Results Of Selected Carriers, Second-Quarter Table 5.7 Financial Results Of Selected Carriers, 6 Months Table 5.8 Financial Results Of Selected Carriers, 12-Months Table 6.1 Actual Recorded Fixtures, 2Q Table 6.2 Average One-Year Time Charter Rates, Table 6.3 Average Actual Time Charter Rates And Average Period Duration, Table 6.4 Average Slot Charter Rates, ($/Nominal Slot) Table 6.5 Development Of Second-Hand Prices Table 6.6 Selected Second-Hand Vessel Sales During 2Q Table 6.7 Recent Container Sale & Purchase Activity Table 6.8 Estimated Development Of Newbuilding Prices Table 6.9 Estimated Development Of Newbuilding Costs For Vessels Of 8,000 Teu And Over, Table 6.10 Demolition Prices Table 6.11 Scrap Value ($ Million) Of Container Vessels, FIGURES Figure 1.1 Regional Port Handling Growth, Figure 1.2 Adjusted Containership Orderbook...2 Figure 1.3 Recent Orders Split Per Vessel Size...3 Figure 1.4 Estimated Industry Freight Rates, Unit Costs...3 Figure 1.5 Asia-N Europe Weekly Spot Rates, Figure 1.6 Asia-Uswc Weekly Spot Rates, Pros And Cons For The Container Industry For Figure 1.7 Hanjin Shipping Operating Income/Losses, H Figure 2.1 Containerised Seaborne Trade Volumes 2015, Main East-West Routes...7 Figure 2.2 Containerised Seaborne Volumes 2015, Main North-South Trades...8 Figure 2.3 Containerised Seaborne Trade Volumes 2015, Intra-Regional Trades...8 Figure 2.4 Fading Prominence Of Singapore Port Container Forecaster 3Q 2016 Drewry

6 Tables and Figures Listings FIGURES Figure 3.1 Containership Fleet Development...30 Growing Containership Size...32 Figure 3.2 Industry Investment In Newbuilds...33 Figure 3.3 Orderbook By Size Range...38 Figure 3.4 Recent Orders By Vessel Size...38 Figure 3.5 Delivery Breakdown Of Unadjusted Orderbook, Figure 3.6 Estimated Adjusted Containership Fleet Growth...39 Figure 3.7 Comparison Of Adjusted And Unadjusted Global Container Fleets, Figure 3.8 Annual Growth Of Global Container Fleets Under And Above 8,000 Teu Nominal Capacity, Figure 3.9 Slow Steaming And Fuel Prices...45 Figure 3.10 Comparison Of Global Headhaul Supply/Demand Gap And Utilisation Factors, 2Q15-2Q Figure 3.11 Idle Capacity...48 Figure 4.1 Average Size Of Vessels In Main East-West Trades...49 Figure 4.2 Annualised Transpacific Capacity, Figure 4.3 Annualised Asia-North Europe Capacity, Figure 4.4 Asia-North Europe Westbound Import Region Growth, January-July Figure 4.5 Annualised Asia-Med Capacity, Figure 4.6 Asia-Mediterranean Westbound Import Region Growth, January-July Figure 4.7 Annualised Transatlantic Capacity, Figure 4.8 Average Size Vessels In N-S Trades...71 Figure 5.1 Annual Freight Rate Trends, Figure 5.2 Freight Rates, Unit Costs And Supply-Demand Balance...90 Figure 5.3 Average Annual East-West Spot Rates, Figure 5.4 Hanjin Shipping Operating Income/Losses, H Figure 5.5 End-Year Z-Score Of Hanjin Shipping Versus Rest Of Container Sector...93 Figure 5.6 Container Shipping Industry s Total Debt...94 Figure 5.7 Estimated Carrier Shipping Industry Interest Coverage, H Figure 5.8 Estimated Carrier Industry EBIT Profit/Loss And EBIT Margins, 1Q13-2Q Figure Month 2016 Scorecard: Comparison Of EBIT Margins, Revenue Of Selected Carriers...95 Figure 5.10 Estimated Industry Revenue, Figure 5.11 Estimated Industry Freight Rates, Unit Costs...96 Figure 5.12 Trends In Container Spot Rates, Bunker Prices, Monthly Averages...96 Figure 6.1 Development Of Panamax Rates And Scrapping, 3Q13-3Q Figure 6.2 Recorded Monthly Time Charter Levels Figure 6.3 Average Fixture Period Figure 6.4 Average Fixture Periods (Months) By Vessel Size, 2Q Figure 6.5 Average One-Year Time Charter Rates, Container Forecaster 3Q 2016 Drewry

7 SEA & AIR SHIPPER INSIGHT TIER PDF / TIER 2 1,290 PDF A MONTHLY SHIPPERS MARKET RESEARCH REPORT (12 ISSUES P.A.) Sea & Air Shipper Insight provides the latest information and analysis for the ocean and air freight markets, including air freight rate benchmarks on 48 trade lanes. It is designed specifically for importers and exporters to keep them up to date with trends and issues affecting the two sectors and assist with their business decisions. Each monthly issue provides vital data on supply, demand and freight rates for both ocean and air freight sectors, together with Drewry's expert analysis to put it all into context. The Sea & Air Shipper Insight offers two levels of access: Tier 1 Standard Subscription PDF report only Tier 2 Advanced Subscription PDF report plus database of air freight rates CONTAINER FREIGHT RATE INSIGHT 2,375 PDF (ONLINE ACCESS VIA Container Freight Rate Insight is the world s first and only global source of container market freight rates on all the major routes, and is a must-have tool for importers, exporters and freight forwarders as well as other industry stakeholders who require reliable, independent and wellresearched cost benchmarks for container shipping. The Container Freight Rate Insight is hosted online at cfri and boasts a wide range of dynamic content and feature-rich functionality. Standard Subscription access to benchmark freight rates by trade route (670 port pairs) CONTAINER TERMINAL CAPACITY AND PERFORMANCE BENCHMARKS ,995 PDF Groundbreaking report with industry-wide analysis on container terminal capacity and performance benchmarks. Based on its unique terminal database and operational experience, Drewry has thrown light on the issues of performance and capacity. The report analyses the actual performance of a sample of around 500 terminals worldwide for a three year period covering the three key aspects of container terminals: the quay line, the yard and the ship-to-shore gantry cranes. GLOBAL CONTAINER TERMINAL OPERATORS ANNUAL REVIEW & FORECAST ,995 PDF The report provides an invaluable update on the main container terminal-operating companies. It investigates the current industry structure, giving league tables of the main operators, their capacity development plans and their varying performances, both financially and operationally. A comprehensive review of mergers and acquisitions over the past year is included. In addition, each operator REEFER SHIPPING MARKET ANNUAL REVIEW AND FORECAST 2016/17 1,495 PDF The report provides an updated analysis of all sectors of the refrigerated shipping industry. It includes key insights and data on demand, including a breakdown of individual commodities, supply of tonnage, operators, logistics, freight rates, reefer equipment and ship economics. As well as looking at the major operators in the is profiled individually with details of their investment portfolios, strategies and capacity projections. industry, the future of the industry is considered, as are the forces that are shaping it. CONTAINER LEASING INDUSTRY 2016/17 ANNUAL REVIEW AND FORECAST 1,495 PDF SINGLE COPY OR SUBSCRIPTION INCLUDING THE CONTAINER EQUIPMENT INSIGHT 2,135 PDF The report provides an annual review of the container leasing industry, including a range of forecasts unique to Drewry. The key areas of analysis include lease company rank, lease structures, rates and financials, trends and forecast for the leased and owned fleet, leased fleet type and value and reefer and tank container market. Container Equipment Insight, published in July, October, January and April, this exclusive Insight is only available to subscribers of Drewry Census and Leasing reports. 6 Container Forecaster 3Q 2016 Drewry

8 CONTAINER CENSUS 2016 ANNUAL REVIEW AND FORECAST 1,495 PDF SINGLE COPY OR SUBSCRIPTION INCLUDING THE CONTAINER EQUIPMENT INSIGHT 2,135 PDF This unique report gives a true reflection of what is happening within the global container equipment market. Published in July, October, January and April, this exclusive Insight is only available to subscribers of Drewry Census and Leasing reports. Covering critical information on container production and pricing, the quarterly Container Equipment Insight provides a unique regular update on the SHIP OPERATING COSTS ANNUAL REVIEW AND FORECAST 2015/16 1,495 PDF Ship Operating Costs 2015/16 is one of Drewry Maritime Research s annual reports. It is the most complete review of ship operating costs available in a single source. The report contains historical data for the period 2010 to 2015; provisional assessments for 2015 and forecasts to A comprehensive, global study of this nature is a powerful tool, enabling you to benchmark specific ship operating costs with confidence and clarity. No other source of information provides such a depth and breadth of insight, allowing you to drill down into specific cost heads. Drewry Maritime Research s annual series state of the market. Critical information covered in the report includes container production, fleet growth, newbuilding prices, refrigerated newbuilds, container re-sales and rental prices. of reports provide the type of data, indepth analysis and objective comment you need to make confident informed business decisions. Independent in thought, they are valued and trusted by an elite client base of industry stakeholders and market players. Please contact the containers and ports team for further details of any of the above products. PUBLICATIONS: Container Forecaster Published every March, June, September & December Container Freight Rate Insight Accessed online Sea & Air Shipper Insight Published monthly Container Census 2016 and Container Equipment Insight July 2016 Container Leasing Industry 2016/17 and Container Equipment Insight July 2016 Global Container Terminal Operators Annual Review & Forecast, 2016 July 2016 Reefer Shipping Market Review and Forecast 2016/17 September 2016 Container Market Annual Review and Forecast 2016 October 2016 Ship Operating Costs Annual Review and Forecast 2015/16 November 2015 Neil Dekker Director of Research Containers dekker@drewry.co.uk Tel: +44 (0) Simon Heaney heaney@drewry.co.uk Tel: +44 (0) Kanika Batura kanika@drewry.co.uk Tel: Subrata Behera behera@drewry.co.uk Tel: Ruby Tomar tomar@drewry.co.uk Tel: Shailly Pandit pandit@drewry.co.uk Tel: Anurag Kumar anurag@drewry.co.uk Tel: David Poore poore@drewry.co.uk 7 Container Forecaster 3Q 2016 Drewry

9 Post-Hanjin Special Report ( 1,495) Container Shipping, A Financial Health Check 23 September 2016 In a special report, Container Shipping - A Financial Health Check - Macros and Micros, analysts at Drewry Financial Research Services Ltd dig deeper to provide an independent view on the financial health of the industry and major companies. Key findings from the analysis are: The container industry is over-leveraged at a very low point in the cycle. Industry debt has started shooting up again. In our sample of 12 container lines, few inspire confidence with respect to financial or balance sheet strength. Our analysis of the financial health of the carriers paints a grim scenario for the liners. Most have seen a deterioration in their balance sheets with increasing gearing in the past five years. Ballooning debt and years of negative cash flows for an extended period exert serious strain on their business viability. High levels of debt have damaged their long-term profitability and put serious strain not only on shareholders but also other key stakeholders such as customers and vendors Drewry Financial Research uses a simple traffic light system to rank companies according to their risk profiles. The companies included: A.P. Moller Maersk ( Maersk Line) CMA-CGM Orient Overseas International Limted Wan Hai Lines Evergreen Marine Nippon Yusen Kaisa (NYK) Hapag-Lloyd COSCON Hyundai Merchant Marine Yang Ming Marine Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) Kawasaki Kisen Kaisa (K-Line) For further information, please contact James Harley, Drewry's Head of Marketing at harley@drewry.co.uk Rahul Kapoor - Director Drewry Financial Research Services Ltd , kapoor@drewry.co.uk Nilesh Tiwary - Lead Equity Analyst, Container Shipping Drewry Financial Research Services Ltd , tiwary@drewry.co.uk Konstantinos Oikonomopoulos, Lead Analyst, Credit Research, Drewry Financial Research Services Ltd. +44 (0) , +44 (0) oikonomopoulos@drewry.co.uk

10 Market analysis and advice tailored to your commercial needs Drewry Maritime Advisors bring together market-leading sector expertise, resources and robust analysis to deliver actionable market insight tailored to your commercial needs About Drewry Maritime Advisors While research is in our DNA, we do not stop there. We are passionate about applying this insight to provide actionable, practical and timely advice. The combination of understanding and expertise in the markets we serve allows our clients, whether shippers, carriers and port operators, banks, investors and financial intermediaries, to make the right commercial decisions at the right time. UK Christopher Street London EC2A 2BS United Kingdom India 209 Vipul Square Sushant Lok - 1 Gurgaon India Singapore #13-02 Tower Fifteen 15 Hoe Chiang Road Singapore China Unit D01 Level 10, Shinmay Union Square Tower 2, 506 Shang Cheng Road, Pudong, Shanghai P. R. China T T T T +86 (0) enquiries@drewry.co.uk

11 About Drewry Research Drewry Maritime Research is the research arm of global shipping consultancy Drewry. The company has over 40 years experience in the maritime sector and employs more than 90 specialists across its offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Our market research is renowned for its quality and is trusted by industry leaders around the world to deliver impartial, robust analysis and balanced opinion. This independence, alongside our sector knowledge and expertise, sets our research apart and gives clients the rich market insight they need to make informed business decisions. Copyright Terms and Conditions Drewry owns full copyright of all its research products, covering both reports and online interactive resources. Drewry s rights and entitlements as copyright holder are protected by law in all jurisdictions. In this context, Drewry operates a simple policy of single-site and multi-site licences. All basic research products are sold on the basis of a standard licence covering a single site. The primary source of market insight, analysis and advice trusted by a global audience of maritime and shipping industry stakeholders UK Christopher Street London EC2A 2BS United Kingdom India 209 Vipul Square Sushant Lok - 1 Gurgaon India Singapore #13-02 Tower Fifteen 15 Hoe Chiang Road Singapore China Unit D01 Level 10, Shinmay Union Square Tower 2, 506 Shang Cheng Road, Pudong, Shanghai P. R. China T T T T +86 (0) enquiries@drewry.co.uk