Global Real Estate Investment Performance

Transcription

1 Global Real Estate Investment Performance Toronto, November 27 th 212 IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 1

2 Huge performance variation between countries Year-over-year results based on local currency, 211 % pa Capital growth Income return Total return IPD Global Index Annual Return, % Taiwan* Canada United States Malaysia* South Africa Sweden Poland Australia IPD Global Index Korea France Czech Republic UK Switzerland Norway Pan-European Thailand* Austria Finland Germany Hungary Belgium Denmark Italy Netherlands Japan Spain Portugal Ireland Note: Results for Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand are provisional ahead of launch of IPD Pan Asian Performance Results on June 1 th (that also include China, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore) and are not included in IPD Global Index. Source: IPD, KTI (Finland) IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 2

3 But city-specific performance just as important Year-over-year results based on local currency, 211 % pa Capital growth 2 Income return Total return Country average Calgary CANADA Vancouver Montreal Toronto San Diego Portland Seattle Philadelphia Denver Boston New York UNITED STATES Los Angeles Dallas Washington DC San Francisco Miami Chicago Houston Minneapolis Atlanta Perth Melbourne Brisbane AUSTRALIA Sydney London Manchester UNITED KINGDOM Birmingham Edinburgh Munich Hamburg GERMANY Berlin Dusseldorf Frankfurt Annual Return, % Note: Annual results based on local currency composite. Source: IPD, KTI (Finland) IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 3

4 Performance behavior varies across markets 1 year annualised results based on local currency, Total return (%) Johannesburg Cape Town EMEA Asia Pacific Americas Total Return, % Paris Sydney Toronto Calgary London Perth New York Frankfurt Volatility (%) Note: Annual results based on local currency composite; selected cities shown where data are available Source: IPD, KTI (Finland) IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 4 Dublin

5 All property performance by country Year-over-year results based on local currency, through 212 % pa Total Return % pa Income Return Australia Canada Japan Netherlands New Zealand Ireland UK USA Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q Note: Data for the Netherlands from Q1 29 Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada

6 IPD global cities coverage 6 urban markets in 24 countries (annually) IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 6

7 All property returns by city at 212 Year-over-year results based on local currency % pa Capital Growth Income Return Total Return - -1 Calgary San Diego Denver Boston Seattle Toronto Vancouver Montreal Atlanta Perth San Francisco Houston Brisbane Chicago Dallas Portland Los Angeles Miami Melbourne New York Minneapolis Sydney Auckland Philadelphia Washington DC London Wellington Manchester Rotterdam Tokyo Dublin Amsterdam Birmingham Edinburgh Annual Return, % Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 7

8 City momentum through 212 All property returns, year-over-year % pa Q3 211 Q4 211 Q Calgary San Diego Denver Boston Seattle Toronto Vancouver Montreal Atlanta Perth San Francisco Houston Brisbane Chicago Dallas Portland Los Angeles Miami Melbourne New York Minneapolis Sydney Auckland Philadelphia Washington DC London Wellington Manchester Rotterdam Tokyo Dublin Amsterdam Birmingham Edinburgh Annual Return, % -1 Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 8

9 One year ago Year-over-year all property returns at 211 Exceptional (2% or more) Strong (1-19% or more) Moderate (-9%) Weak (-%) Declining Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 9

10 Mid-year 212 Year-over-year all property returns at 212 Exceptional (2% or more) Strong (1-19% or more) Moderate (-9%) Weak (-%) Declining Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 1

11 All property return rankings for selected global cities since Q1 26 Relative global rankings shift rapidly with timing of regional cycles in 6-1/2 years Q1 26 Rank Calgary 1 Brisbane 2 Portland 3 Perth 4 Dublin Wellington 6 San Francisco 7 London 8 Los Angeles 9 Vancouver 1 Miami 11 Washington DC 12 New York 13 Seattle 14 Edinburgh 1 Birmingham 16 Atlanta 17 Philadelphia 18 Auckland 19 Denver 2 Manchester 21 Houston 22 San Diego 23 Montreal 24 Sydney 2 Toronto 26 Boston 27 Dallas 28 Melbourne 29 Tokyo 3 Chicago 31 Minneapolis Rank 1 Calgary 2 San Diego 3 Denver 4 Boston Seattle 6 Toronto 7 Vancouver 8 Montreal 9 Atlanta 1 Perth 11 San Francisco 12 Houston 13 Brisbane 14 Chicago 1 Dallas 16 Portland 17 Los Angeles 18 Miami 19 Melbourne 2 New York 21 Minneapolis 22 Sydney 23 Auckland 24 Philadelphia 2 Washington DC 26 London 27 Wellington 28 Manchester 29 Tokyo 3 Dublin 31 Birmingham 32 Edinburgh IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 11

15 Total return by property sector, selected global cities at 212 Year-over-year performance based on local currency % pa 3 Office 2 Retail 2 Industrial Residential 1 All Property 1 - Calgary San Diego Denver Boston Seattle Toronto Vancouver Montreal Atlanta Perth San Francisco Houston Brisbane Chicago Dallas Portland Los Angeles Miami Melbourne New York Minneapolis Sydney Auckland Philadelphia Washington DC London Wellington Manchester Rotterdam Tokyo Dublin Amsterdam Birmingham Edinburgh Note: Property sector returns for Tokyo are as of May 212 rather than June. Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 1

16 212 returns by property sector Cities with year-over-year total returns exceeding 1% OFFICE Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 16

17 212 returns by property sector Cities with year-over-year total returns exceeding 1% RETAIL? Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 17

18 Range of income returns since Q1 28 Annual all property income returns by city % pa Range of income returns since Q income return North America Northwest Europe Asia Pacific 4 3 Philadelphia Calgary Atlanta Minneapolis Dallas Chicago Montreal Miami Toronto Seattle Los Angeles Houston Denver Vancouver San Francisco Portland Boston San Diego Washington DC New York Dublin Birmingham Manchester Edinburgh Rotterdam Amsterdam London Wellington Perth Auckland Brisbane Melbourne Sydney Tokyo Income Return, % Source: IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 18

19 Relative pricing trends in selected global cities through 212 Spread between IPD all property local yield and 1-year national bond yield IPD yield positive spread negative spread % 9 London New York Sydney Toronto Tokyo % 9 % 9 % 9 % Note: All property yields follow local market conventions and practices and may not be consistent across all markets. IPD yield for Tokyo available from Q4 23. Source: IPD; OECD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 19

20 Relative pricing at 212 for selected cities Spread between IPD all property local yield and 1-year national bond yield % 9 8 DUBLIN tightest spread 211 bps BIRMINGHAM widest spread 77 bps Tokyo New York Houston San Diego Washington DC Boston Portland San Francisco Denver Los Angeles Seattle Miami Vancouver Dallas Chicago Toronto Amsterdam Montreal Atlanta Calgary London Minneapolis Rotterdam Philadelphia Edinburgh Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Auckland Manchester Birmingham Perth Wellington Dublin Note: All property yields follow local market conventions and practices and may not be consistent across all markets. Source: IPD; OECD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 2

21 Thank you Simon Fairchild Managing Director, IPD North America Chicago, USA Tel: Web: Intellectual Property Rights and use of IPD statistics as benchmarks Whether in the public domain or otherwise, IPD's statistics are the intellectual property of Investment Property Databank Limited. It is not permissible to use data drawn from this presentation as benchmarks. Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 212. Database Right, Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 212. All rights conferred by law of copyright and by virtue of international conventions are reserved by IPD IPD 212 ipd.com/canada 21