Global leader in hospitality consulting. Shanghai Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

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1 Global leader in hospitality consulting Shanghai Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2015

2 Horwath HTL Shanghai Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2015 INTRO DUCTIO N SHANGHAI V.S. CHINA SENTIMENT TRENDS SHARE OF RESPONDENTS BY STAR CLASSIFICATION The Horwath HTL Shanghai Hotel Market Sentiment Survey, part of a national assessment, has been designed to provide the Shanghai hotel industry with a quick assessment of the future market outlook. The four-question survey focuses on the outlook for occupancy, average room rate and total revenue. In this survey, hoteliers have been asked to make comments on their expectations for the coming year in comparison to 2014, as well as identify key factors of growth / decline, and access the outlook for key demand generators. This report summarizes the outcome of the survey and compares the Shanghai market sentiment with that of other markets across China. Of the 45 respondents from Shanghai, the majority of them are from 5-star hotels (76 percent), followed by 4star hotels at 18 percent. The number of respondents from the 3-star and budget sectors only account for small portions at 2 percent and 4 percent respectively. Following the similar optimistic outlook, Shanghai shows an improved sentiment in 2015, yet even more positive than the China hotel market. The following analysis provides some useful insights as to the expectations for Shanghai hoteliers. 2

3 SENTIMENT RANKINGS BY KEY CITIES JUL 2012 FEB 2013 SCORE JUL 2013 FEB 2014 AUG 2014 MAR 2015 Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou n/a Shenzhen Sanya Tianjin China Average SENTIMENT RANKINGS As a way to measure and compare the results across regions and cities in China, we have created an index to formulate an overall average sentiment score from the first two questions. Points are assigned to each corresponding response and compounded accordingly. The index utilizes a scale of negative 150 to positive 150 in which a score of negative 150 denotes a sentiment of absolute pessimism; a zero score indicates unchanged expectations from the previous year whereas a positive 150 signifies a very optimistic outlook. The sentiment index or scores then allow trends to be observed over time. Of the selected key cities, Shanghai records the second highest sentiment score at positive 40, which indicates a continuous positive shift in sentiment through August RANKING SCORE KEY Much Worse Worse Same 0 Better 75.0 Much Better For the first time in the past two years, general sentiment of the China Hotel Industry has finally returned positive in 2015, with a national average score of positive 9. With Shenzhen and Shanghai showing the most positive expectations for hotel performance, other key cities, except Sanya, have turned optimistic, visible from the results. Of the selected key cities, Shanghai records the second highest sentiment score at positive 40, which indicates a continuous positive shift in sentiment through August Being similar to its Beijing counterpart, though Shanghai hoteliers expected future growth from certain domestic sourced segments in 2015, many participants are still concerned that the hotel performance will experience continued negative impact given the central government s restriction on government spending. Within the Shanghai hotel market, the 4-star sector registers the highest score of positive 49, much higher than the 4-star national average at negative 1, while the Shanghai 5-star submarket records a slightly lower score at positive 39. 3

4 2015 HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK Question 1: What is your assessment of the hotel market outlook for 2015 versus 2014? OCCUPANCY In response to expectations on market-wide occupancy performance, more than 53 percent of Shanghai hoteliers expect that occupancy in 2015 should be better or much better than that recorded in 2014; 44 percent believe that performance will remain stable; while no one feels that occupancy could be much worse. Significantly, almost 69 percent Shanghai hoteliers expect total revenue performance in 2015 will be better than recorded in AVERAGE ROOM RATE In terms of ARR performance, close to 47 percent of respondents expect market-wide ARR performance to get better than the previous year. Only 18 percent expecting ARR to decrease, while the remaining 35 percent expect it to remain stable. TOTAL REVENUE The outlook for total revenue is more positive than the other two performance gauges, with more respondents replying total revenue will be better in About 69 percent of hoteliers expect total revenue to increase, while only 4 percent feel it will perform worse than recorded last year. MARKET PERFORMANCE RANKING Avg Occ ARR Rev Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen Sanya Tianjin Hefei Hangzhou Suzhou Wuxi INDEX SCORE Hoteliers in Shanghai have more confidence in market-wide occupancy and total revenue growth but hold a relatively cautious outlook on ARR performance in Shanghai ranks second with a positive average score of 37, higher than the national average (2). Other key cities registering higher-than-national sentiments are Shenzhen (52), Hangzhou (20), Wuxi (13) and Guangzhou (10). Beijing, on the other hand, scores the same as the China hotel sentiment. 4

5 2015 HOTEL PERFORMANCE EXPECTATION Question 2: For your hotel, what is your expectation for growth / decline in 2015 versus 2014? OCCUPANCY About 78 percent of Shanghai hoteliers expect their occupancy to grow in 2015; with around 18 percent expecting occupancy performance to increase by more than 5 percent. Only 9 percent of respondents feel the performance level will experience some decrease. Amongst all primary cities, Shanghai registers the second highest sentiment of 46; with the 4-star submarket records the most positive score at 69. The Shanghai hoteliers show the most positive performance expectation for total revenue. HOTEL PERFORMANCE EXPECTATION Avg Occ ARR Rev Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen Sanya Tianjin Hefei Hangzhou Suzhou Wuxi AVERAGE ROOM RATE Shanghai s average sentiment score for ARR is lower than that for both occupancy and total revenue, with more respondents feeling ARR to decline in percent of Shanghai respondents expect a decrease by less than 10 percent. About 18 percent of respondents expecting it to remain the same, while the remaining 62 percent expecting to see some growth. Following the similar trend to Shanghai hotel performance, the Shanghai 5-star submarket records a sentiment at 26; while the 4-star sector scores at 31. TOTAL REVENUE The Shanghai hotel market shows the most positive performance expectation for total revenue, while recording the highest score at positive 58. More than 85 percent of hoteliers expect total revenue for their hotels to grow, within which close to 36 percent believe the growth to be more than 5 percent. Around 11 percent feel it will remain stable, while only 4 percent are looking forward to some decrease. 5

6 FACTORS AFFECTING PERFORMANCE Question 3: How are each of the factors below expected to influence hotel market performance in 2015? Each hotelier was asked to gauge their attitude towards nine factors and their impact. F1. Local / Global Stock Market Performance; F2. Local Economic Growth Trends; F3. Global Economic Growth Trends; F4. Local Tourism Trends; F5. New Competitive Supply Additions; F6. Global Oil Prices; F7. Currency Exchange Rates; F8. Central Government Policy; F9. Growth / Decline in Foreign Trade. The negative impact that Central Government Policy has on Shanghai hotel market performance is believed to be stronger in Shanghai hoteliers rank Local Economic Growth Trends along with Local Tourism Trends to be the most positive of the 9 factors listed for With sentiment scoring at positive 37 and 32 respectively, at least half of respondents expect them to influence the Shanghai hotel market performance positively. DEMAND DRIVER RANKING Score 1. Local / Global Stock Market Performance Local Economic Growth Trends Global Economic Growth Trends Local Tourism Trends New Competitive Supply Additions Global Oil Prices 0 7. Currency Exchange Rates Central Government Policy Growth / Decline in Foreign Trade -20 Being slightly more pessimistic than the corresponding sentiment in March 2014 (-36), the negative impact, lead by the Central Government Policy, on Shanghai hotel market performance is believed to be stronger. Close to 58 percent of Shanghai respondents feel it will have negative or very negative impact on hotel performance in 2015, while merely 4 percent indicating it would have some positive influence. The pessimistic outlook results in a negative score of 47, similar to its Beijing counterpart. Currency Exchange Rates, Growth / Decline in Foreign Trade, along with the intensified competition are all regarded as negative factors for hotel performances in 2015, while Local / Global Stock Market Performance and Global Economic Growth Trends are expected to have somewhat positive impact on performance levels in

7 MARKET SEGMENT PERFORMANCE Question 4: How are each of the major demand segments expected to perform in 2015 versus 2014? The last question deals with each participant s opinion with regard to primary market demand segments, which are Corporate, Leisure FIT, Leisure Group and MICE (Meetings, Incentive, Conference, and Exhibition) and how they are expected to perform in More than 62 percent of Shanghai hoteliers expect performance in both Domestic Corporate and Domestic Leisure FIT segments to be better in While scoring at positive 43 and 42 respectively, the majority of Shanghai hoteliers hold strong positive expectations for the future growth of both the Domestic Leisure FIT and Domestic Corporate segments, with more than 62 percent of respondents each feel that performance in Domestic Corporate and Domestic Leisure FIT will be better than recorded in On the other hand, local hoteliers expressed negative expectation towards demand growth from certain demand segments. The Domestic Leisure Group, Foreign Leisure FIT and Foreign Leisure Group are the three segments with negative scores in Amongst them, the Foreign Leisure Group sector records the least positive score at negative 20, with about 89 percent of respondents in Shanghai expecting it will be in line with 2014 or should experience some decline. DEMAND SEGMENT RANKING Score Domestic Corporate 42 Foreign Corporate 12 Domestic Leisure FIT 43 Foreign Leisure FIT -5 Domestic Leisure Group -2 Foreign Leisure Group -20 MICE 28 Over 51 percent of respondents in Shanghai expect the MICE segment to perform better or much better in 2015, while registering a sentiment score of positive 28. Amongst the various submarkets in Shanghai, the 5-star submarket is more confident in growth from both Domestic Corporate and Domestic Leisure FIT demand segments. 7

8 CONCLUSION In conclusion, hoteliers in Shanghai record higher-thannational score in their sentiment towards outlook for 2015, with all respondents managing to record an overall sentiment score that is positive. Overall, Shanghai market shows the continuous positive improvement with a sentiment score of positive 40, higher than the sentiment at positive 11 in August Hoteliers there are optimistic that Local Economic Growth Trends and Local Tourism Trends will continue to drive performance and have strong expectations on the ability of Domestic Leisure FIT and Domestic Corporate segments to continue to grow strongly. More negative than the corresponding outlook in March 2014, the Central Government Policy is considered as the more pessimistic factor for Shanghai in

9 ASIA PACIFIC AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND BANGKOK, THAILAND BEIJING, CHINA HONG KONG, SAR JAKARTA, INDONESIA KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA MUMBAI, INDIA SHANGHAI, CHINA SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA TOKYO, JAPAN EUROPE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS ANDORRA LA VELLA, ANDORRA BARCELONA, SPAIN BUDAPEST, HUNGARY DUBLIN, IRELAND FRANKFURT, GERMANY ISTANBUL, TURKEY LISBON, PORTUGAL LONDON, UK MADRID, SPAIN MOSCOW, RUSSIA OSLO, NORWAY NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA ATLANTA, USA ATLANTA, USA ATLANTA, USA DALLAS, USA CHICAGO, USA DENVER, USA LOS ANGELES, USA LAS VEGAS, USA MONTREAL, CANADA MEXICO CITY, MEXICO NEW YORK, USA PHOENIX, USA AFRICA CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA PARIS, FRANCE ROME, ITALY SAN FRANCISCO, USA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATIN AMERICA BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL MEXICO CITY, MEXICO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SANTIAGO, CHILE BOGOTA, COLOMBIA SALZBURG, AUSTRIA WARSAW, POLAND ZAGREB, CROATIA ZUG, SWITZERLAND TORONTO, CANADA 9

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