Poverty Dimensions in Sri Lanka. Wimal Nanayakkara. Institute of Policy Studies, Sri Lanka

Transcription

1 Poverty Dimensions in Sri Lanka Wimal Nanayakkara Institute of Policy Studies, Sri Lanka 1

2 Poverty Dimensions in Sri Lanka The analysis on Income Poverty (IP) in this presentation is based on the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES) conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), since 1990/91 (1990/91, 1995/96, 2002, 2006/07, 2009/10) The analysis on Multidimensional Poverty (MP) is based on Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) -2006/07 and HIES-2009/10, conducted by DCS DHS-2006/07 data set provides all the 10 indicators under the three dimensions (Health, Education and Living Conditions) needed to compute Multidimensional Poverty and therefore is the best data source available for the purpose. However, DHS-2006/07, did not cover any of the districts in the Northern Province, although it covered all three districts in the Eastern Province The HIES-2009/10 of DCS, has covered all districts in the Eastern Province and two districts in the Northern Province (Jaffna and Vavuniya). As such, it gives a better coverage than the DHS-2006/07. Due to the time constraint, only a few most important dimensions of poverty will be presented 2

3 Trends: Poverty Headcount Index (PHC) by Sectors /91 to 2006/07 Sri Lanka has achieved the MDG goal of halving the incidence of poverty, well before the target year (2015), except in the Estate Sector. If the present trends continue, Estate Sector will also achieve the target before However, still there are regional disparities 3

4 Poverty Trends & Regional Disparities [HCI & No. of Poor People]: 1990/91 to 2009/10 Province Districts 1990/ / / /10 Sri Lanka ,207, ,805, ,806,000 Western Colombo , , ,000 Gampaha , , ,000 Kalutara , , ,000 Central Kandy , , ,000 Matale , , ,000 Nuwara Eliya , , ,000 Southern Galle , , ,000 Matara , , ,000 Hambantota , , ,000 North Western Kurunegala , , ,000 Puttalam , , ,000 North Central Anuradhapura , , ,000 Polonnaruwa , , ,000 Uva Badulla , , ,000 Monaragala , , ,000 Sabaragamuwa Ratnapura , , ,000 Kegalle , , ,000 Eastern Batticaloa HCR< , ,000 Ampara , ,000 HCR 10 < 20 Trincomalee ,000 HCR 20<30 It is important to consider both the Northern Jaffna percentage of poor as well as the ,000 HCR 30<40 actual numbers of poor people when Vavuniya ,000 formulating policies to reduce poverty HCR 40 & over

5 Poverty Headcount Index by District 1990/91 to 2009/10 Poverty Headcount Index by District 1990/91 (Black Bar) to 2009/10 (Yellow Bar) National HCR=8.9% 5

6 Poverty: MDG targets already achieved All the districts (excluding those in the N & E) passes the 50% line & therefore have achieved the MDG target 5yrs before 2015 Declined poverty by more than half 6

7 Reduction in incidence of Poverty (HCR %) between 2006/07 and 2009/10 During the period from 2006/07 to 2009/10, poverty HCR has declined in all the districts except in the Eastern Province HCR for districts in the East, are under estimates in 2006/07 as HIES-2006/07, was conducted soon after peace was restored in these areas. Some of the remote areas have not have been accessible, for the survey operations. 7

8 Income Inequality Gini (per cap. expenditure) & Poverty Gap Index 2006/07 and 2009/ Gini (per cap. expenditure) Poverty Gap Inde 0.00 Western Central Southern Eastern North Western North Central Uva Sabaragamuwa Urban Rural Estate Sri Lanka 0.0 Gini (per cap. Exp.)-2006/07 Poverty Gap Index-2006/07 Gini (per cap. Exp)-2009/10 Poverty Gap Index-2009/10 Inequality in Sri Lanka, has started showing a declining trend. For the past three decades, the per cap. expenditure Gini remained at 0.4 or above. In 2009/10, it has declined at least marginally to 0.38 at national level, which is encouraging. This declining trend is observed in all Provinces, except in the Western Province 8

9 Multidimensional Poverty Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), is an index of acute multidimensional poverty MPI has 3 dimensions Health, Education and Standard of Living : These are measured through 10 indicators (given in the next slide) MPI reveals the combination of deprivations that batter a household at the same time By directly measuring the nature & magnitude of overlapping deprivations at household level, MPI provides information that can help in formulating better policies to reduce acute poverty A household is identified as multidimensionally poor (MDP), if and only if it is deprived in some combination of indicators whose weighted sum exceeds 30% In Sri Lanka, 7.0% of the total population (excluding those in the Northern Province) were MDP in 2006/07 (DHS), while the percentage of population in Income Poverty (IP) was 15.2% (HIES-2006/07) In 2009/10, Multidimensional Poverty Headcount declined to 4.7% of the population (including those in Jaffna and Vavuniya Districts), while the percentage in Income Poverty declined to 8.9% (HIES- 2009/10) 9

10 Multidimensional Poverty (MP) -Indicators & weights used in the case of DHS-2006/07 & HIES-2009/10 {DHS-2006/07 has all the 10 indicators needed to compute MP} Dimension Wt. assigned to each indicator DHS-2006/07 10 indicators (2 Health; 2-Education & 6 Living Conditions) HIES-2009/10 10 indicators (2-Health; 2 Education & 6 Living Conditions) Health At least one member of HH is malnourished One or more children in the HH have died Education No one in the HH has completed five years of Education At least one school-age child not enrolled in school 1. Energy consumption less 80% of the requirement & Food Ratio more than 60% 2. Head of the Household chronically ill or disabled 3. No one in the HH has completed five years of Education 4. At least one school-age child not enrolled in school Living Conditions HH has no Electricity 5. HH has no Electricity HH has no access to clean drinking water HH has no access to adequate sanitation 6. HH has no access to clean drinking water 7. HH has no access to adequate sanitation HH has a dirty floor 8. HH has a dirty floor HH uses firewood as cooking fuel & no separate kitchen HH has no car & does not own more than one of : radio, TV, telephone, bicycle, motor bicycle or refrigerator 9. Shanty / Line room 10. HH has no car & does not own more than one of : radio, TV, telephone, 10 bicycle, motor bicycle or refrigerator

11 Contribution of each indicator to Multidimensional Poverty DHS-2006/07 {The % contributions given below are only for the multidimensionally poor population}

12 Contribution to Multidimensional Poverty (MP) by Indicators for Districts/Sectors DHS 2006/07 {Contribution from the two health indicators to MP is around 35 to 50% in all the districts}

13 Comparison of Multidimensional Poverty and Income Poverty DHS-2006/07 & HIES-2006/07 {DHS -2006/07 is more appropriate for computation of MPI, as it has all 10 indicators needed. However, this survey do not provide estimates for districts in the Northern Province} MD-P-HC (%) & IP-HCI (%) MPI is highest in Monaragala and Nuwara Eliya, followed by Matale, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Badulla and Ratnapura Multidimensional Poverty Index Colombo Gampaha Kalutara Kandy Matale Nuwara Eliya Galle Matara Hambantota Batticaloa Ampara Tricomalee Kurunegala Puttalam Anuradhapura Polonnaruwa Badulla Monaragala Ratnapura Kegalle Urban Rural Estate Sri Lanka MD-P-HC DHS0607 HCI-HIES06/07 MPI-DHS0607 MP-HC at national level (7.0%) is less than half the IP-HC (15.2%). MP-HC is highest in Nuwara Eliya Monaragala Districts, followed by Matale, Tricomalee, Badulla, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Ratnapura MPI at national level (Based on DHS-2006/07) 13

14 Income Poverty (HIES-2006/07) vs Multidimensional Poverty (DHS-2006/07) - Lagging Regions in 2006/07 Sizes of the disc indicate share of MD Poor Population (Share%) In 2006/07, most deprived districts were Monaragala & Nuwara Eliya, Followed by Matale, Badulla & Ratnapura. Kurunegala (9.4%) had the highest no. of Multidimensionally persons, followed by Ratnapura (8.5%), Nuwara Eliya (7.6%), Badulla (7.5%), etc. 14

15 Contribution of each indicator to Multidimensional Poverty HIES-2009/10 {The % contributions given below are only for the multidimensionally poor population} 15

16 Contribution to Multidimensional Poverty (MP) by Indicators for Districts/Sectors HIES-2009/10 {Contribution from the two health indicators (though different in this analysis) to MP Is ranging from around 40 to m70% in all the districts} Note: This analysis is only for the Multidimentionally Poor

17 Comparison of Multidimensional Poverty and Income Poverty HIES-2009/ Colombo Gampaha Kalutara Kandy Matale Nuwara Eliya Galle Matara Hamabantota Jaffna Vavuniya Batticaloa Ampara Trincomalee Kurunegala Puttalam Anuradhapura Polonnaruwa Baddulla Monaragala Ratnapura Kegalle Urban Rural Estate Sri Lanka MDP-HC(%) & IP-HC (%) Multidimensional Poverty Index MDP-HC(%) IP_HCI(%) MPI MPI at national level is (HIES-2009/10), which is very much below all the countries in the region In all the districts MPI values are within the range to , although there are regional disparities which can be clearly seen 17

18 Income Poverty (IP) vs Multidimensional Poverty (MP) HIES-2009/10 - Lagging Regions Matara (3.3%) Galle (4.2%) Hambantota (2.2%) Kalutara (3.5%) Kegalle (3.2%) Ampara (2.3%) Hidden behind Monaragala (2.2%) Gampaha (6.5%) Trincomalee (1.9%) Kurunegala (9.8%) Matale (2.9%) Badulla(5.8%) Puttalam (7.1%) Ratnapura (7.5%) Kandy (8.1%) Nuwara Eliya (4.3%) Sizes of the disc indicate share of MD Poor Population (Share%) Batticaloa (6.4%) Jaffna (6.6%) Colombo (6.7%) Vavuniya (0.3%) Polonnaruwa (??%) Anuradhapura (3.1%) In 2009/10, both IP & MP highest in Batticaloa & Jaffna, followed by Puttalam, Badulla & Ratnapura. The share of M/Poor persons highest in Kurunegala (9.8%), Kandy (8.1%), Ratnapura (7.5%), Puttalam (7.1%), Colombo (6.7%), Jaffna (6.6%), Gampaha (6.5%), Batticaloa (6.4%) & Badulla (5.8%) 18

19 Comparison of HDI & related indices with few selected countries Few selected countries Sri Lanka (UN Report-2010) HDI Rank HDI Value Life Expectation (Years) Mean Years of schooling Expected Years of schooling Multidimensional poverty MPI MP-HC (%) Population below income poverty line PPP $1.25 (%) National poverty line (%) Sri Lanka (Latest IPS & DCS Est.) (2010) 8.4 (2009/10) 12.9 (2009/10) (HIES- 2009/10) 4.7 (HIES- 2009/10) (2009/10) 15.2 (2006/07) Singapore Malaysia <2 - Thailand <2 - Philippines Maldives Indonesia Vietnam India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Afghanistan 155 o

20 Thank You 20