Risk of premature obsolescence due to demographic and technological lchanges
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1 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
2 Risk of premature obsolescence due to demographic and technological lchanges Mid/Hi Rise Apartments Percent of Members' Votes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Warehouse CBD Office Garden Apartments Regional Malls Hotel Strip Retail Centers Suburban Office Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk
3 Expected changes in cap rates by year end 2015 Percent of Members' Votes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Office Warehouse Retail Hotel Multifamily Much hlower Slightly Lower No Change Slightly Higher Much hhigher
4 When China may become the largest source of real estate tt capital investment t Percent of Members' Votes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% When, if ever, do you anticipate that China will become the largest source of real estate tt capital investment tinto USA real estate? 2014 or or Beyond Not Likely to Happen
5 Are Chinese capital inflows cyclical or a permanent major capital source Percent of Members' Votes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Do you think the recent surge in investment from China is more likely a short term surge or cyclical inflow, as we have seen from many other countries ti in the past, or the beginning i of a long period of high investment volumes from China into the USA? Short term term or Cyclical Inflow Long term Permanent Inflow No Opinion
6 Expected first increase in interest rates Percent of Members' Votes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% When do you expect the first increase in interest rates? or Beyond
7 Changes in perspective p on USA real estate markets 80% 70% Percent of Members' Votes 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% More Pessimistic About the Same More Optimistic
8 Country providing the most stable and secure l tt i t t real estate investments 70% 60% Percent of Members' Votes 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% USA Germany UK Canada Switzerland
9 Country providing the best opportunity for capital appreciation iti 70% 60% Percent of Members' Votes 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% USA Spain UK China Brazil Mexico Netherlands
10 Ranking of global cities for real estate investment 35% 30% Perce ent of Total Sc ore 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% New York London San Francisco Tokyo Madrid Houston Berlin Sydney Shanghai The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.
11 Ranking of USA cities for real estate investment 40% 35% 30% Perec cnt of Total Sc ore 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% New York San Francisco Houston Los Angeles Washington DC Atlanta Boston Chicago Seattle The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.
12 Ranking of USA property p types, by year Mean Score Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.
13 Ranking of USA property p types, by property p type Mean Score Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.
14 Mean real estate portfolio sizes $25 $20 US$ Billions $15 $ $5 7.3 $0 Global USA
15 Real estate portfolio geographic g distribution Percent of Members' Portfolios 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Europe Canada Asia Pacific Latin America >75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation
16 Planned changes to the size of portfolios Percent of Members' Votes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Latin America Europe Canada Asia Pacific Major Modest Maintain or Modest Major Net Net Increase Increase Reinvest est Decrease Decrease
17 Allocation of portfolios by investment strategy or style Percent of Members' Portfolios 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Core Value Add Opportunistic Other >75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation
18 Planned changes to investment strategy or style Percent of Members' Votes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Core Value Add Opportunistic Major Net Modest Maintain or Modest Major Net Increase Increase Reinvest est Decrease Decrease
19 Ranking of countries for real estate acquisitions: 2014 executions and 2015 plans USA UK Germany France Canada Japan Australia China Percent of Total Score 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2014 Executions 2015 Plans The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point for the third choice.
20 Ranking of emerging countries considered for real estate tt acquisitions iiti Percent of Total Vote 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Brazil China Mexico Chile Poland Colombia India Czech Republic 2013 Plans 2014 Plans 2015 Plans (from 2012 survey) (from 2013 survey) (from current rrentsurvey) Each member was allowed to mention up to 6 countries. All mentions are counted equally to add up to the score of the country.
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