MARYLAND S RENEWABLE GRID OF THE FUTURE

Transcription

1 MARYLAND S RENEWABLE GRID OF THE FUTURE Prepared for GRID-OF-THE-FUTURE conference at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore MD January 29, 2016 Baltimore, MD Arjun Makhijani, Ph.D., President, Institute for Energy and Environmental Research arjun@ieer.org

2 Renewable Maryland Project: energy sector goals Affordable for all Renewable Resilient Reliable Efficient Democratized consumer choice, transparent, equal access to choices

3 Maryland s energy system: 2011 BASELINE YEAR FOR ANALYSIS

4 Overview of Maryland energy system Present energy system Wasteful, polluting, mostly functioning; not robust or resilient Maryland sends $9 billion to $12 billion per year out of state to import fuels (oil, natural gas, imported electricity): we are, in effect, exporting jobs Significant water impacts

5 Today s energy system is wasteful Example 1: Thermal electricity generation

6 Detail on Susquehanna River water use About three-fourths of the water consumption is for thermal electricity generation (mainly coal and nuclear) about 17 fossil and nuclear generating stations in the basin (to confirm) Connected to future security of water supply Water flow in drought years is critical for Chesapeake Bay Maryland has an interest in leading by example and persuading development of nonthermal generation upstream on the Susquehanna River 2011 reported consumptive use by major industry type Electric Power Generation 73% Water Supply 7% Mining 1% Manufacturi ng 7% Other 4% Natural Gas 8%

7 Today s energy system is wasteful Example 2: Point of use in homes and businesses

8 Today s energy system is wasteful Example 3: Typical gasoline vehicle: 75 to 82 percent waste (not including oil production, pipeline, and refining losses)

9 Heating & cooling leakage in homes Net zero homes and passive heating and cooling energy systems can reduce leakage ~70 percent

10 Maryland primary energy use, 2011 (responsible for ~92 million metric tons CO2) 2011 Total Primary Energy Use, trillion Btu RCI - Coal, 22.3 Electricity system losses, Direct Fuel Use, [VALUE] Transportation, RCI - Natural Gas, RCI - Petroleum, 60.6 Electricity sales, 217 RCI - Biomass, 20.7 RCI - Propane, 12.5 RCI - Geothermal & Solar, 1.3 RCI = Residential, Commercial & Industrial

11 Energy Equity and Justice

12 HIGH ENERGY BURDENS = ILL-HEALTH AND HOMELESSNESS

13 IMPOSSIBE CHOICES: RENT, MEDICINE OR HEAT High eviction and foreclosure rates High public shelter costs High health costs 13

14 Renter-landlord issues Renters often trapped in low efficiency homes 14

15 Low-income homes are relatively inefficient 120,000 Primary energy use per unit area in Maryland households, ,000 80,000 Btu / sq. ft. 60,000 40,000 Average household MEAP household 20,000 0 Overall energy Heating only

16 10 areas of highest need where >10% households apply for energy assistance Garrett Allegany Cecil Baltimore City Kent Caroline Dorchester Wicomico Somerset Worcester

17 Low income households get almost no access to solar (CA, AZ, NJ research) APS, CSI, and NJCEP percentage of installations by income level and year $0-39,999 $40,000 - $89,999 $90, % APS CSI NJCEP 90% Percentage of installations 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% YTD YTD YTD Note: APS = Arizona Public Service; CSI = California Solar Initiative; NJCEP = New Jersey s Clean Energy Program). Source: Recreated by IEER from Hernandez 2013, Figure 3 (p. 4). This report, Solar Power to the People: The Rise of Rooftop Solar Among the Middle Class, by Mari Hernandez, was published by the Center for American Progress.

18 GRID OF THE FUTURE Affordable, Democratized, Near-zero Emissions, Equitable, Resilient

19 Maryland s main renewable energy sources: wind and solar We have 10x more than needed: Supply ~1 Million GWh/yr while 2011 demand was only ~ 69 thousand GWh/year

20 The transition in brief Eliminate energy waste systematically Use mostly wind and solar generation All road transport goes electric HVAC is by efficient electric heat pumps Result: energy consumption goes down by ~60 percent even as the economy grows by 2x 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Primary energy use, trillion Btu Business as Usual Electricity system losses Electricity use Transportation direct fuel use 2050 Climate Protection Scenario Non-transportation direct fuel use

21 24 hours, typical winter day 30,000 megawatt hours 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 Gas turbine Generation from battery Hydropower generation Wind generation Solar generation Combined Cycle + CHP Recharge on battery from surplus wind and solar Demand, incl T&D and transport -10, hour of the day

22 24 hours, typical summer day 30,000 megawatt hours 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 Gas turbine Generation from battery Hydropower generation Wind generation Solar generation Combined Cycle + CHP Recharge on battery from surplus wind and solar Demand, incl T&D and transport -10, hour of the day

23 Life would be simpler with economical seasonal heat and coldness storage technologies 2,500 Curtailed generation/sold to PJM, by month 2,000 gigawatt hours 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

24 The energy system Now: Where it needs to be:

25 Current Grid vs Smart Grid 25 Current Grid Smart Grid Comments Communications None or one-way; typically not realtime Two-way, real-time Customer needs smart devices and real-time information Customer interaction Limited Extensive Metering Electromechanical Digital (enabling realtime pricing and net metering) Affordable bills will require real time control of consumption and ownership of energy production

26 GOTF Features Renewable, Resilient, Democratized Solar and wind mainstays of energy system Increase efficiency Storage, CHP, microgrids Demand response Control consumption to minimize bills Electrified transportation and HVAC Provide services to the grid, including via V2G and local storage ownership 26

27 Affordable Energy Program Limit bills to 6 percent of income Lower cost of energy supply with solar (Photo: low-income housing, Seattle) Reduce energy needs by efficiency increases Reduce costs in the long-term and reduce need for assistance. Better health, lower emissions, lower cost Start creating jobs in solar and efficiency energy in areas with higher proportions of low-income households Needs action by Public Service Commission and legislature

28 Energy Justice and GOTF 28 Universal solar access and universal internet access Once Affordable Energy Program in place, assistance can be in the form of investment: smart appliances + smart devices (tablets, phones, etc.) to optimize bills Large collateral benefits of internet access education, work, economic opportunity Electric vehicles: lower fuel and maintenance cost + V2G revenue potential Infrastructure in low income areas: Building community solar + electric vehicle charging + distributed stationary storage Financing: PACE, Green Bank, On-bill financing Electrified public transport like electric bus rapid transit?

29 How long will it take

30 Oil lamps to electric bulbs: ~20 or 30 years

31 Horses to petroleum tractors: 30 or 40 years

32 This transformation can be done by 2050, possibly earlier

33 Conclusions We can have a healthy, affordable, reliable, and emissions-free energy system by Policy certainty GHG reduction and efficiency targets, etc. will allow for investment on the scale needed If we are farsighted enough, we can bring large numbers of industrial jobs to Maryland Maryland must really lead to have a good chance of persuading industry to set up here rather than elsewhere.

34 Thank you & Questions Arjun Makhijani, Ph.D., President, Institute for Energy and Environmental Research 6935 Laurel Ave, Suite 201 Takoma Park, MD (301)