Investment appraisals allowing for density metrics Vanessa Muscarà, M&G Real Estate, Property Research Team
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1 Part of the M&G Group 1 Investment appraisals allowing for density metrics Vanessa Muscarà, M&G Real Estate, Property Research Team 26 th October 2016
2 Mega trends: Urbanisation Supply of new housing is not keeping up with population growth 2 Consistent trend throughout European cities Source: United Nations, national statistics agencies, IPD, Bulwien, Nationwide
3 Mega trends: Globalisation The cost of delivering one megabyte wirelessly has dropped from $8 to a few cents 3 Source: The Economist, March 2015
4 Densification: what does this mean for real estate investors? 4 Which cities advocate good density practices? Source: Urban Land Institute, June 2015
5 Good Density: Innovation 5
6 Good density: Innovation Cities that capture growth from innovation 6 INNOVATIVE CITIES RANKING TOP 20 Eindhoven Dortmund Espoo Munich Paris Zurich Geneva Helsinki Cambridge The Hague Stuttgart Hannover Arhus Brussels Dusseldorf Mannheim Milan Luxembourg Frankfurt Stockholm Innovative workforce (standardised score) Source: PMA, EPO, Eurostat, World Bank, QS
7 Average rental growth ( ) Rental growth vs innovative workforce Cambridge High innovation/ high growth markets Luxembourg Manchester Glasgow Nantes Bristol Hamburg Leipzig Vienna Dresden Marseille Lille Cologne Budapest Nurnberg Leeds Bremen Utrecht Stockholm Birmingham Rotterdam Antwerp Edinburgh Amsterdam Prague Warsaw Rome Copenhagen Berlin Madrid Dublin Arhus Dusseldorf Brussels Helsinki Hannover Stuttgart Mannheim Espoo Dortmund Paris Munich Eindhoven Low innovation/ Lisbon low growth markets Naples Innovative workforce (standardised score) Source: PMA, EPO
8 Current Yield (End 2015) Yield vs innovative workforce Investors are pricing in rental growth expectations Naples Budapest High innovation/ Good value Nantes Montpellier Espoo Eindhoven Aberdeen Bordeaux Toulouse Marseille Utrecht Prague Bremen Lisbon Warsaw Rotterdam Mannheim Dortmund Glasgow Lille Dresden Brussels Reading Leeds Edinburgh Bristol Hannover Malmo Leipzig Birmingham Nurnberg Luxembourg Rome Manchester Lyon Cambridge Amsterdam Dublin Arhus Helsinki Barcelona Vienna Milan Stuttgart Gothenburg Cologne Frankfurt Oslo Copenhagen Dusseldorf Madrid Low innovation / Berlin Stockholm Poor value Munich Geneva Paris Innovative workforce (standardised score) Source: PMA, EPO
9 Good Density: Connectivity 9
10 Good density: Connectivity Cities that capture growth from urban mobility 10 CONNECTIVITY SCORE MAP: 64 CITIES STUDIED CONNECTIVITY RANKING TOP 20 CITY RANK The darker the colour the higher the connectivity score Paris 1 Berlin 2 Stuttgart 3 Zurich 4 Stockholm 5 Amsterdam 6 Munich 7 London 8 Bremen 9 Luxembourg 10 Hamburg 11 Lyon 12 Vienna 13 Malmo 14 Barcelona 15 Dublin 16 Rotterdam 17 Frankfurt am Main 18 Copenhagen 19 Gothenburg 20 Source: M&G Real Estate (October 16).
11 Identifying value beyond traditional gateway markets 11 High density cities Medium density cities Low density cities Source: M&G Real Estate, October 16
12 Enablers score Connectivity ranking metrics Cities with enabler & effect scores > 50 more likely to provide sustainable property fundamentals 12 Enablers Wi-fi speed Free hotspots % of journeys to work using green modes Length of dedicated cycle paths Transit web apps Urban mobility strategy Infrastructure spend Electric vehicle chargers Car sharing schemes Effects Affordability Transport emissions Passenger satisfaction Awards Public transport speed Commute time to work Hours spent in traffic Safety & security ENABLERS VS EFFECTS SCORES Paris Berlin London Munich Stuttgart Zurich Amsterdam Barcelona Stockholm Hamburg Dublin Bremen Frankfurt am Main Lyon Enabler & Effect Lisbon Vienna Rotterdam Oxford Gothenburg Madrid scores > 50Luxembourg Milan Hannover Copenhagen Malmo Rome Brussels Warsaw Bristol Helsinki Toulouse Leipzig Valencia Dresden Lille Greater Manchester Cambridge Düsseldorf Utrecht Birmingham Edinburgh Dortmund Oslo Bologna Nantes Mannheim Cologne Antwerp Marseille Aberdeen The Hague Nice Leeds Guildford Naples Bordeaux Eindhoven Glasgow Sevilla Århus Montpellier Espoo Nürnberg Prague Effects score High density cities score relatively higher on Enablers Low density cities score relatively higher on Effects High density cities Medium density cities Low density cities Source: M&G Real Estate PRT October 16.
13 Investment appraisals Allowing for density metrics 13
14 Investment appraisals Allowing for density metrics 14 INVESTMENT COMMITTEE PAPERS Source: M&G Real Estate, October 16
15 15 For Addressee only; not for further distribution The distribution of this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation and is not for further distribution. This document is designed to provide factual information about the organisation for the sole and exclusive use of persons to whom it is addressed and may not be passed on to any other person. Information given in this document has been obtained from, or based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable and accurate although M&G does not accept liability for the accuracy of the contents. M&G does not offer investment advice or make recommendations regarding investments. Opinions are subject to change without notice. M&G Real Estate Limited is registered in England and Wales under number with its registered office at Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH. M&G Real Estate Limited forms part of the M&G Group of companies.
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