The Case for Central London Real Estate. Is the Recent Price Correction a Bubble or Here to Stay?
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1 The Case for Central London Real Estate Is the Recent Price Correction a Bubble or Here to Stay?
2 Re-Pricing in the Wake of the Credit Crunch
3 Prime office yields Zurich Munich Hamburg Dusseldorf Frankfurt London (west end) Berlin Vienna Stockholm Copenhagen Helsinki Milan Rome Amsterdam Paris IdF Brussels Barcelona Madrid London (city) Warsaw Athens Oslo Prague Edinburgh Glasgow Birmingham Manchester Bratislava Lisbon Dublin Budapest Yield (Percent) Source: CB Richard Ellis From low point of this cycle to Q3 2009
4 Investment and Occupier Market Trends
5
6 In the UK the decline is faster this time 0 All UK Property, Monthly Capital Value Index (Cumulative % change) From June 2007 From Oct % % -27% % Source: IPD Monthly Index (November 2009) Months
7 Central London Office Markets Total: 211m sq ft 22.7m sq ft 69.7m sq ft 83.8m sq ft 17.4m sq ft 17.2m sq ft
8 Central London Offices Capital Growth Index Values up 5.6% June-October 2009 Capital Growth % Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Index, Dec 1999=100 Source: CB Richard Ellis Monthly Index
9 Historic Central London Prime Office Yields City West End Dec nd Oil Shock Stock market crash ERM exit Asian crisis Dot.com crash 6.5 City Yield 10 Year Average % West End Yield 10 Year Average Dec-77 Dec-79 Dec-81 Dec-83 Dec-85 Dec-87 Dec-89 Dec-91 Dec-93 Dec-95 Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 City 5.79% WE 5.18% Source: CB Richard Elli
10 Central London Office Investment Transactions Domestic Purchasers Overseas Purchasers 2003 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 billion Source: CB Richard Ellis
11 Central London Investment: Investment Purchasers 2009 year to date 20% 20% USA/Canada Middle East/Africa 4% 11% 14% Far East/ Asia German Irish Other European 4% 8% 19% Other Overseas UK investors * Due to rounding total may not add up to 100% Source: CB Richard Ellis, 16/11/2009
12 Drivers of Capital Growth Central London Offices November Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 % Rental Value growth Yield Impact Capital Value Growth Source: CB Richard Ellis Monthly Index
13 City and West End Office Take-up City West End Secondhand New Completed Pre-let Projection Secondhand New Completed Pre-let Projection Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 3 m illio n s q ft m illion sq ft 0.0 Source: CB Richard Ellis
14 Office Availability Rates Q City 11.2 West End % Q3 Source: CB Richard Ellis
15 City Top Prime Rents & Rent Free Periods Net effective rents down 50% from peak Rent Free Periods Rent (RHS) Net Rent (RHS) Rents psf Rent Free Period Months 1999 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Source: CB Richard Ellis
16 West End: Top Prime Rents & Rent Free Periods Net effective rents down 44% from peak Rents psf Rent Free Prime Rent Net Effective Rent Rent Free Period Months Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: The net effective rent assumes a 3 month fitting out period Source: CB Richard Ellis
17 Office Market Prospects
18 Central London: Office Construction Starts New supply checked more quickly in this cycle 3.0 Rent peak Rent peak Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q million sq ft Source: CB Richard Ellis
19 City Developments Completed U/C Let/Under Offer U/C Available Proposed Let/Under Offer Proposed Available million sq ft Source: CB Richard Ellis
20 Major City, Midtown and Southbank Developments Schemes completing , , , , , , ,000 0 Ropemaker Watermark Place Aldersgate Drapers Gardens 20 Gracechurch Street 60 Threadneedle Street 30 Crown Place 107 Cheapside Nexus Place 1 Lothbury St Botolphs 7 More London The Walbrook One New Change Riverbank House The Angel Building 110 Fetter Lane 1 Kingsway 40 Gracechurch Street Heron Tower Cannon Place Shard sq ft Source: CB Richard Ellis, October, 19/10/2009
21 Major City, Midtown and Southbank Developments Schemes completing , ,000 Available Let/Under Offer , , , , ,000 0 Ropemaker Watermark Place Aldersgate Drapers Gardens 20 Gracechurch Street 60 Threadneedle Street 30 Crown Place 107 Cheapside Nexus Place 1 Lothbury St Botolphs 7 More London The Walbrook One New Change Riverbank House The Angel Building 110 Fetter Lane 1 Kingsway 40 Gracechurch Street Heron Tower Cannon Place Shard sq ft Source: CB Richard Ellis, October, 19/10/2009
22 Major West End Developments 500,000 Available Let/Under Offer , , , ,000 0 Regents Place 2 Regents Place 1 1 Southampton Row New Brook Buildings 23 Savile Row 101 New Cavendish Street Iona The Peak Stratton House 12 Charles II Street Central St Giles Carmine, Merchant Square 2 Kingdom Street St Martin's Courtyard 14 St George Street Quadrant 3 sq ft Source: CB Richard Ellis, October 2009
23 City Development Completions and Prime Rental Growth New supply squeeze to drive prime rent growth million sq ft Completions (lhs) Prime Rental Growth (rhs) % pa Source: CB Richard Ellis
24 West End Offices: Prime Rental Growth & Availability Rate Availablity Rate Prime Rental Growth (RHS) FORECAST % % Source: CB Richard Ellis
25 Central London Rental Forecast ( per sq ft) Q City Mayfair / Mayfair Midtown Southwark St. James Grade A Source: CB Richard Ellis, Q3 2009, 15/10/2009
26 Capital values relative to 20 year average Prime office capital values % above/below long term average (20 years) psf 80% 1,545 London City - relative to average 60% London City psf 1,345 40% 1,145 20% 945 0% Avge % % % 345 Jun-85 Jun-86 Jun-87 Jun-88 Jun-89 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Source: CB Richard Ellis Monthly Index
27 Capital values relative to 20 year average 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% % above/below long term average (20 years) West End - Relative to Average Capital Value psf Q Prime office capital values psf 3,264 2,764 2,264 1,764 Avge: 1,320 1, % 1984 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 % above/below long term average 264 Source: CB Richard Ellis Monthly Index
28 Cloudy with a Chance of Steady Growth Positive sentiment back in investment Growing risk appetite Headwinds for the UK Economic relapse / stimulus withdrawal High household sector debt: 160% of disposable income Banks off-loading toxic debt Post-election fiscal squeeze Central London market conforming to type Volatile, high risk Risk pricing v s market traits Historic value
29 Capital values relative to 20 year average 40% Oslo, Milan Average, Source: CB Richard Ellis 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Helsinki Athens Glasgow, Brussels Amsterdam Stockholm, Zurich, Copenhagen London West End Birmingham, Rome, Edinburgh Dusseldorf, Geneva Hamburg, Paris Munich, Manchester Madrid, Frankfurt, Lisbon, Vienna Barcelona Dublin London City Berlin
30 London s Relative Attraction 25,000 Prime synthetic office values comparable to Frankfurt or Milan per sq m 20,000 City of London 15,000 Paris 10,000 ` Milan Frankfurt 5,000 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: CB Richard Ellis
31 City of London Transactions
32 City Transactions 88 Wood Street, EC2 Built 1999 Freehold 25,000 sq m (247,700 sq ft) Multi-let to: tenants including: National Australia Bank, Hewlett-Packard and Collins Stewart 74% secured until 2020 (11 years) Total rent: million ( per sq ft) Capital allowances: circa 15.6 million March 2004 Purchased: million / 7.4% NIY / 646 per sq ft September 2006 Purchased: million / 5.09% NIY / 939 per sq ft March 2008 Marketed: million / 5.00% NIY / 969 per sq ft November 2008 Under Offer million / 6.73% NIY / 719 per sq ft Withdrawn: million / 7.5% NIY / 645 per sq ft October 2009 Under offer: million / 6.66% NIY / 728 per sq ft Value reduction c. 25% from March 2008 October 1 Fleet Place, EC4 Built 1991 Virtual freehold 15,727 sq m (169,283 sq ft) Let to: Denton Wilde Sapte LLP (97%) to September 2025 (16.75 years) Total rent: 6.06 million ( per sq ft) December 2005 Purchased: million / 5.0% NIY / 700 per sq ft July 2008 Marketed: million / 5.65% NIY / 600 per sq ft November 2008 Under Offer: 77.4 million / 7.4% NIY / 457 per sq ft December 2008 Transacted: 74.3 million / 7.71% NIY / 439 per sq ft Value reduction 37.8% December 2005 to December 2008
33 City Transactions Garrard House, Gresham Street, EC2 Built 1998 Long leasehold at 9.5% of rents received ( 589,000 pa) 14,690 sq m (158,122 sq ft) Let to: Schroders Investment Managers to August 2015 (7 years) Rent review: 2010 Total rent: 6.2 million ( per sq ft) March 2000 Purchased: 85 m / 6.45% NIY/ 538 ( 586) psf September 2005 Purchased: 99 m / 5.55% NIY/ 626 ( 682) psf March 2008 Unsolicited Offer: 92.3 m / 5.95% NIY/ 584 ( 637) psf November 2008 Marketed: 70.7 m / 7.77% NIY/ 448 ( 489) psf February 2009 Completed: 71 m / 7.50% NIY / 414 ( 448) psf Value reduction 28% March to November 2008 The Governor s House, EC4 Built 1998 Freehold 11,698 sq m (125,919 sq ft) Let to: Prudential Services Ltd to June 2018 (9.75 years) Total rent: 5.5 million ( per sq ft) November 2005 Purchased: 105 million / 4.95% NIY / 834 per sq ft July 2007 Purchased: million / 4.17% NIY / 989 per sq ft October 2008 Available: 78.6 million / 6.50% NIY / 624 per sq ft October Available: 69.3 million / 7.50% NIY / 551 per sq ft March 2009 Completed: 71.3 million / 7.30% NIY / 565 per sq ft Value reduction 43% July 2007 to March 2009
34 City Transactions 99 Gresham Street, EC2 Built 1998 Freehold 8,911 sq m (95,920 sq ft) Multi-let to: June 2015 (7.5 years) Offices: Davis Polk (55%), Tradeweb, Alliance Bernstein & Butterfield Bank. Retail: City Golf Clubs & Costa (4%) to Rent reviews: 2009 / 2010 Total rent: 4.2 million ( per sq ft) October Purchased: 100 million / 4.25% NIY / 1,043 per sq ft October Marketed: 71.0 million / 5.75% NIY / 740 per sq ft October 2008 Under Offer: 51.2 million / 7.75% NIY / 534 per sq ft Withdrawn Value reduction of 48% October 2006 to October 2008 One Plough Place, EC4 Built 2001 Freehold 5,737 sq m (61,753 sq ft) Let to: New Opportunities Fund to June 2021 (12.75 years) Rent reviews: June 2011 and 2016 Rent: 2.8 million ( per sq ft) September Purchased: 48.4 million / 5.40% NIY / 784 per sq ft August 2008 Available: 44.1 million / 6.00% NIY / 715 per sq ft September 2008 Under Offer: 39.2 million / 6.75% NIY / 635 per sq ft December Completed: 36.2 million / 7.30% NIY / 587 per sq ft Value reduction 18% August 2009 to December 2008
35 West End Transactions
36 West End Transactions Times Place, Pall Mall SW1 Developed in 1997 Freehold 5,599 sq m (60,271 sq ft) Multi let to: Doughty Hanson, Credit Suisse and GPG to Rent reviews: Various Total rent: 4,524,157 per annum ( per sq ft) Dec 2006 Purchased 85.0 million / 4.25% NIY / 1,410 per sq ft Jan 2008 Marketed 90.0 million / 4.75% NIY / 1,493 per sq ft July 2008 Under offer 70.0 million / 6.11% NIY / 1,161 per sq ft Dec 2008 Available 60,0 million / 7% NIY / 995 per sq ft Value reduction of 30% 20 North Audley Street, W1 Refurbished in 2006 Long leasehold: 108 years 10% gearing 63,823 sq ft (5,929.4 sq m) of Grade A office space Multi let to: 7 tenants until 2017 Rent reviews: Various Total rent: 5,020,068 per annum ( per sq ft) Sept 2007 Marketed 77.5 million / 4.85% NIY / 1,214 per sq ft Jun 2008 Re-priced 62.0 million / 5.74% NIY / 971 per sq ft Oct 2008 Re-marketed 71.0 million / 6.01% NIY / 1,112 per sq ft Jul 09 Completed 54.0 million / 7.91% NIY / 846 per sq ft Value reduction of 30%
37 West End Transactions 52 Grosvenor Gardens, W1 1980s redevelopment behind retained façade Long leasehold: 125 years geared to 10% 92,000 sq ft ( 8,547.1 sq m) Multi let: short term income until December 2009 Total rent: 2,700,000 per annum ( per sq ft) Jun 2008 Available (50%share) 25.0 million / 4.60% NIY / 543 per sq ft Nov 2008 Under offer (50% share) 20.0 million / 6.38% NIY / 435 per sq ft April 2009 Completed (100% share) 25.0 million / 9.72% NIY / 271 per sq ft Value reduction of 50%
38
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