The Office Market Frankfurt/Main

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1 CB RICHARD ELLIS MARKET VIEW Frankfurt/Main OFFICE MARKET Q3 28 Overview The Office Market Frankfurt/Main Take-up almost at last year s level Marginal increase in vacancy Higher demand for middle price segment Stable achievable prime rent Continued dynamic in the market Economy In a national comparison, Frankfurt, Germany s banking centre has, due to its economic main focus on financial services, certainly been hit harder by the banking crisis than other office market centres. In an international comparison, however, Frankfurt is not affected so strong. Investment banking has generally played a more minor role in Frankfurt than in, for instance, London or New York. Furthermore, the foreign investment banks, which have recently become insolvent or have merged, had very few employees in their Frankfurt offices. Overall economic development in Germany continues to show sufficient support for the Main metropolis, despite the depressing forecasts for the next year. Economic Key Data Population Unemployment rate related to all employees Gross domestic product in current prices in million Employees subject to social insurance contributions at place of work in 1, Purchasing power indices per inhabitant 661,191 3/8 8.1 % 9/8 5, / Source: Regional Authority for Data Processing and Statistics of Hessen, Federal Labour Agency, GfK Q3 28 year on year Take-up Office market overview In contrast to the investment market, there is still very little sign of the effects of the financial crisis on Frankfurt s letting market. Considering the total takeup of office space over the first three quarters, Frankfurt s results were only 3% behind last year s results. Growth of almost 15% was registered in terms of pure letting performance (excluding owneroccupation). However the vacancy rate increased slightly by.3 percentage points to its current level of 1.7%. The achievable prime rent remained high at 39. /sq m/month. We anticipate that the current restructuring of the banking sector will generate further demand; however, in our opinion, this demand will shift strongly away from top locations to office space in the middle price segments in good locations. Therefore, a potential fall in the prime rent over the next few months cannot be excluded. Key Data Stock in million sq m Take-up cumul. rate in % Prime yield in % Q Q ,5 1,267, Annual change % 384, 1,235, % % +.3 %-points % +.3 %-points 28 GmbH

2 CB RICHARD ELLIS MARKET VIEW Frankfurt/Main Q3 28 Office space take-up With 371,5 sq m of office space, the Frankfurt market currently lies above the average of the nine month results of the last five years (342,1 sq m). Due to the lettings by Deutsche Börse, the Eschborn submarket assumed top place in the first nine months. It is interesting that the Office Location/Niederrad submarket was also one of the top three submarkets in terms of take-up due to several larger lettings e.g. by Sinius (6, sq m in Q1), Zolldienststellen Flughafen (4,5 sq m in Q1), Nintendo (4, sq m in Q3) and B+S Card Service (3, sq m in Q3); the top positions are normally occupied by the prime locations Banking District and Westend. This trend signifies a strengthened cost awareness of tenants, who prefer to be located in good quality newbuilds in more peripheral locations than in higher-priced inner city locations. It was also remarkable that almost all transactions of office space larger than 8, sq m were concluded as pre-lettings in project developments. Office space take-up in 1, sq m Annual average (22-27) : 482,1 sq m Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 27 Q3 28 Office space take-up by sectors A number of large-scale lettings were concluded by banks despite the general uncertainty resulting from the financial crisis. Overall, the Banks, Financial Services sector dominated, as usual, with a market share of almost 38% of the total take-up in the first three quarters of 28. In the future, however, companies from the financial sector, in particular, will become more reserved and take time before signing new leases. Second place was assumed by the Public Services sector in terms of accumulated take-up of space by sectors; this is due inter alia to the large-scale letting by Stadt Frankfurt of 25, sq m in the former offices of Mainova in Kurt- Schumacher-Straße. The Legal Advisors, Chartered Accountants sector was also ranked under the top three, as expected, although most contracts were concluded for space of up to 5, sq m. Office space take-up (cumulated, in %) by sectors* -Top 5- Remaining sectors 27% Banks, Financial S. 38% Office space take-up Q3 28: 371,5 sq m Insurance 6% IT 7% Legal Adv., Chart. Acc. 7% Public Services 15% * In total 2 sectors Office space vacancy Frankfurt s vacancy rate increased only slightly (by.3 percentage points) from its level last year. The current volume of vacancies is around 1.27 million sq m of office space. Also, future bank mergers will not change the vacancy situation dramatically. If office towers in the Banking District become vacant, this would benefit the Frankfurt market because large-scale inter-connected space is scarce, particularly in the top locations in the city. Almost a third of vacancies can be accounted for as unmarketable structural vacancy, which can only be reduced by renovation or demolition. Around 3% of all completions anticipated by 21 are renovations of office space. However, most older office stock will be demolished for cost and time reasons and replaced with new office buildings. Very few office buildings will be converted into residential or hotel space. Office space vacancy/ rate in 1, sq m in % Q3 28 in 1, sq m rate in % 28 GmbH

3 CB RICHARD ELLIS MARKET VIEW Frankfurt/Main Q3 28 Submarkets Overview Submarket Take-up cumul. New developments until 21 Rental band Weighted average rents Railway Station District Banking District Office Loc./Niederrad City City West Eschborn Airport Merton District Trade Fair/Europe D. Niedereschbach North Offenbach Kaiserlei East Rebstock Sachsenhausen Sossenh./Rödelh./Hsn. South West Westend Westhafen 18,9 29,7 33,8 49, 28,5 87,1 9,1 5,1 12,5 2,2 6,8 11,3 3,8 16,4 3,7 2,9 27,5 23,2 16,5 214,1 13,1 8,6 12, 6,8 3,1 12,3 92,1 6,7 17, 59,9 164,2 44,1 5,1 128, 15,6 34,2 39,3 76, 4,6 19,6 113,4 29,1 6,8 49,4 97,6 42,4 45,3 119,1 38,6 54,5 34,2 8, GmbH

4 CB RICHARD ELLIS MARKET VIEW Frankfurt/Main Q3 28 /Weighted average rent /Weighted average rent The achievable prime rent has remained stable since the end of 27 at 39. /sq m/month. In comparison with last year this represents a rise of 8.3%; nevertheless, due to the current unforeseeable developments in the financial markets and the effects of these developments on the real estate market, a slight fall is anticipated over the next three to six months. The weighted average rent for the whole of the market area increased in comparison with last year by 7% to its current level of /sq m/month. The rental price agreed in a quarter of all contracts concluded over the last twelve months averaged 3.49 /sq m/month Q3 28 Weighted average rent Rent index Index Q = Rent index Since four quarters, the rent index showed a sideward movement and is registered with 224 index points. The current index therefore lies at the level registered in the second quarter of 23. In comparison with the first record level recorded in the first quarter of 21, this represents a fall of 7 index points. Compared with the other major German markets, Frankfurt remains at the forefront both in terms of rental levels and growth potential. The strongest change from last year also took place in the third quarter of 28 in Frankfurt with more than 8%. In Munich, the annual change was 3.3%, whereas it remained under 3% in Berlin and Hamburg Deutschland (Top 5) Frankfurt Rental cycle Rental cycle Berlin Dusseldorf Hamburg Munich Frankfurt Considering the strengthening financial crisis, we anticipate that the achievable prime rent is at its peak at the end of the phase of decelerated rental growth. As market dynamic continues to be registered during the course of restructuring measures for cost saving purposes, we anticipate further strong demand, although less in the prime segment and more in the middle price categories. Consequently, owners will be unable to maintain the current price level in the long-term despite the higher building and refurbishment costs, particularly in the case of new-builds. Frankfurt s market will therefore experience a slight reduction in rents over the next few months. Markets do not necessarily move along the curve in the same direction or at the same speed. Rental growth accelerating Rental growth slowing Rents falling Rents bottoming out 28 GmbH

5 CB RICHARD ELLIS MARKET VIEW Frankfurt/Main Q3 28 Office space future supply in 1, sq m Q speculative pre-let owner-occupied 21 Prime yield/capital value index and benchmark yield Index Q = Q3 28 Prime yield (%) Take-up Capital value index Trend (six months) 1y government bond (%) in % Office space future supply Approx. 3,5 sq m of newly built or renovated office space will be released onto the market by the end of the year, joining the 34,5 sq m of offices already completed in 28. The volume of completions will only increase substantially again in 29/21. Almost half of the 937, sq m of office space is still currently acknowledged as unlet, whereby further pre-lettings and therefore a reduction in the speculative component can be expected before completion. Approx. 16% of the volume of completions in 29/21 is expected for owner-occupation and around 37% of the space is already pre-let. Very few projects, such as the Taunus Turm office tower or the development of the Degussa-Areal, will be released speculatively onto the market. It remains to be seen whether there will be a change in plans here before commencement of construction. Nonetheless, for the time period until the end of 21 it can be assumed that the pre-letting rate for the total volume of completions will increase considerably between 29 and 21 before completion of the projects, despite the uncertainties of the market. Investment market The financial crisis has already slowed down the investment market in Frankfurt significantly (in contrast to the letting market), although investment activity in the long-term is regarded as satisfactory. We continue to expect demand for top class products in prime locations, also in the future. The uncertainties of the markets, however, are bringing restraint and therefore the investment volume, by the end of the year, will fall well below the forecast made at the half year point. The length of time it will take for the investment market to recover is currently difficult to estimate. In comparison to the previous quarter, the net initial yield increased slightly by.2 percentage points to 5.3%, whereby we can expect a stable trend over the next few months. Compared with the benchmark of tenyear Government bonds, this will produce a premium of 11 basis points. Trend Despite there being no abrupt breakdown in Frankfurt s letting market, the international financial crisis will affect wider circles. The mood is already dampened, but the actual effects of the credit crisis will only become evident in Frankfurt over the coming year. The high restructuring requirements brought about by the events in the financial market will generate further market activity. The accumulated volume of take-up by the end of the year will likely lie below last year s level. As over 5% of speculative new-builds are expected to be released onto the market in 29, a moderate rise in vacancies in expected. Over the next three to six months, the likelihood of a fall in rents will increase as the overall economic trends are clouded and the pricing in context of offer and supply within the office space market will be influenced accordingly. 28 GmbH

6 CB RICHARD ELLIS MARKET VIEW Frankfurt/Main Q3 28 Definitions (Office Space) Take-up This is the sum of all office space that is let, leased, or sold to an owner-occupier in a defined (sub) market and a defined period. Take-up also includes sublets of leased premises or owner-occupied space. Lease renewals are registered as space take-up if the office space let is larger than the space previously occupied. Only the additional space in an existing location will be added to take-up. This is the sum of all completed office space which, at the time the information was registered, was not occupied or was offered for let or sale (for the purposes of further use) and which may be occupied within three months. Sub-lettings are not considered in vacancy figures and are registered separately. Supply Supply includes the sum of all office space on offer, which is intended for marketing at the time of observation (each quarter s end) and which is still available. This includes vacant space, space to sub-let and speculative completions over the next 12 months. s are the highest sustainable nominal rent achieved in prime locations, and topquality buildings with top-quality fit outs. These are based as much on lease transactions concluded within the defined period as on the market overview of the local letting department. Weighted average rent The weighted average rent represents the weighted average rent for space let for a defined region. It is based on all lease contracts concluded during a year. In principle, at least ten lease contracts have to be concluded in the relevant market and reporting period, in order to be used as a base. For lettings to businesses that can deduct input tax, rents are inclusive of statutory value-added-tax. For lettings to value-added-tax exempt businesses, the rent may include a payment of a variable amount to compensate for the non-deductible input tax paid by the lessor for services provided in the construction or fit out of the demised premises. Prime yield The prime yield is the ratio between annual net rental income (rent less non-recoverable costs) and the total amount invested (purchase price plus purchasers on-costs), expressed as a percentage figure, achievable in the relevant prime location in a building with first-class fit out, let according to market conditions. It is based both on sale & purchase contracts concluded during a period and also on the market overview of the local investment department. For additional information: Agency Contact: Research Contact: Research Contact: Carsten Ape Dr. Jan Linsin Carolin Kahr Managing Director, Associate Director, Senior Analyst Head of Agency Frankfurt/M. Head of Research Germany Tel: Tel: Tel: Frankfurt/Main: GmbH WestendDuo Bockenheimer Landstr Frankfurt/Main Tel: Fax: DISCLAIMER 28 GmbH Information herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by GmbH clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of GmbH. EMEA Offices Abu Dhabi (971) Aarhus Cederholm A/S (45) Aix-en-Provence (33) Amsterdam (31) Athens - Atria (3) Barcelona (34) Belfast (44) Belgrade (381) Berlin (49) Birmingham (44) Bratislava (421) Bristol (44) Brussels (32) Bucharest Eurisko (4) Budapest (36) Bulawayo (263) Cape Town (27) Casablanca (212) Copenhagen Cederholm A/S (45) Dubai (971) Dublin (353) Durban (27) Edinburgh (44) Frankfurt (49) Gaborone (267) Geneva PI Performance (41) Glasgow (44) Gothenburg (46) Hamburg (49) Harare (263) Helsinki Realia Management Oy (358) Hoofddorp (31) Istanbul (9) Jersey (44) Johannesburg (27) Kampala (256) Kyiv (38) Kosice (421) Krakow (48) Kolding Cederholm A/S (45) Leeds (44) Lisbon (351) Liverpool (44) London (44) Lyon (33) Madrid (34) Malaga (34) Manchester (44) Marbella (34) Marseille (33) Milan (39) Moscow (7) Munich (49) Nairobi (254) Neuilly sur Seine (33) Oslo - Atrium (47) Palma de Mallorca (34) Paris (33) Port Elizabeth (27) Porto (351) Poznan (48) Prague (42) Pretoria - (27) Rome (39) Sofia - Elta Consult AD (359) Southampton (44) Stockholm (46) Saint Petersburg Maris Properties LLC (7) Tel Aviv - M.A.N. Properties Real Estate Consultants (972) The Hague (31) Thessaloniki -Atria (3) Toulouse (33) Valencia (34) Vienna (43) Warsaw (48) Wroclaw (48) Zagreb (385) Zaragoza (34) Zurich PI Performance (41)

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