DTZ Research. Property Times Europe Office Q Rebound in take-up and new supply. 21 February Summary. Authors. Contact

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1 Property Times Europe Office Q Rebound in take-up and new supply 21 February 2013 Summary Take-up 2 Vacancy ratio 4 New office supply 6 Office prime rents 7 Outlook 9 Definitions 10 Authors Magali Marton Head of CEMEA Research +33 (1) Karine Woodford Head of Occupier Research +44 (0) Contact Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0) Aggregate office take-up across Europe reached 3 million sq m in Q4 2012, up from 2.8 million sq m recorded during the previous quarter. The rolling annual take-up, at 11 million sq m, posted a decline of 4%, an improvement on the 7% fall registered in Q3. An attitude of wait and see continues to prevail amongst corporates across the region, with many choosing to put their relocation plans on hold. Office transactions completed in Q4 highlight the increased tendency of occupiers of relocating to the peripheries, where office space is considerably cheaper than in central areas. Office vacancy ratios are stable across Europe, with the regional average standing at 11% at the end of Q4. Availability rates continue to vary across the region, ranging between 2% in Marseille and 21.5% in Dublin. The biggest upward changes were recorded in Geneva and Warsaw where new supply was abundant in Q4. There is no real concern for the Geneva market where the vacancy ratio, although up, is still below 4%; whilst the rise in vacancy in Warsaw was more pronounced, at 8.8% up from 5.8% at the end of Q The fourth quarter of 2012 saw a rebound in office building completions with 1.4 million sq m delivered to the market; despite this recovery, 2012 ended at the lowest level (i.e. 3.7 million q m) of new office supply in the region since Based on our development pipeline figures, new supply should be more abundant in 2013 and 2014 with 5 and 6 million sq m expected respectively. The Central and Eastern European markets (Istanbul, Kyiv, Bucharest and Warsaw) will record the highest levels of completion in the next two years, on the back of a more positive economic outlook, when compared to Western and Southern Europe ended with a modest increase in rents of 1.2%, slightly better than our expectations. However, the economic outlook will remain challenging in the short term in Europe, keeping pressure on the prime rental values. In this context, we anticipate a 1.2% increase in prime values in 2013 before a stronger rebound (of a yearly average of 2.5%) from 2014 to London West End and Moscow will witness the highest increases, with yearly annual averages of 5.9% and 4.9% expected respectively over the next five years. DTZ Research

2 Take-up Rebound in Q4 but decline for the year as a whole Aggregate office take-up in the main markets across Europe reached 3 million sq m in Q4 2012, up by 8% from the 2.8 million sq m recorded in the previous quarter, and up by 9% from the same period in Despite the uncertainty still prevailing in the economy, office cost optimisation is leading occupiers to relocate to more efficient and cheaper office buildings, hence explaining the high number of transactions recorded during the quarter. On an annual basis, take-up of office space reached 10.9 million sq m in 2012, posting a 4% decline year-on-year. Prospects for the office market vary between booming demand levels in the emerging economies and office space adjustments in the more mature markets where no significant change in activity is expected in the near term. Occupiers remain cautious and consider all their options before committing to new office space, including renegotiations of current leasing contracts. In this context, take-up should remain at a similar level during 2013, unless we see a significant improvement in the economy. Moscow up whilst mixed results elsewhere in the region As usual, the European office markets displayed some mixed results during Q4. However, the majority of markets covered in our analysis posted declines of take-up on a quarterly and annual basis. Amongst the major markets, Moscow posted the strongest increase in take-up during the quarter with 600,000 sq m recorded - up from an average of 300,000 sq m registered in the first three quarters of the year. After a disappointing performance (176,000 sq m) in Q3, London ended the year on a positive note, with 206,000 sq m transacted in Q4. Despite these good results, the market remained below its historical levels - over 340,000 sq m recorded every quarter between 2005 and The German market also witnessed contrasted trends with on the one hand Dusseldorf, Frankfurt and Hamburg posting increases in take-up, whilst Berlin and Munich experienced downward trends. Large pre-lettings boosted the Greater Paris Region market in Q3; since then the market has been less dynamic and take-up was down 4% year-on-year. The general slowdown in the European office market is clearly demonstrated in the turnover ratio (take-up versus stock), which reached 4.1% in Q4 2012, down from 4.3% a year ago. Whilst CEE posted the greatest declines, they still record the highest levels across the region. Figure 1 European office take-up, 000 sq m Quarterly take-up (LHS) Rolling annual take-up (RHS) Figure 2 Office take-up in selected markets, 000 sq m London Moscow Munich Paris Region Warsaw Figure 3 European office market turn-over in selected markets Southern Europe UK Benelux Germany Europe France CEE 0% 5% 10% 15% Q Q Property Times 2

3 Map 1 Office take-up in Europe (Year 2012 versus Year 2011) ; ESRI Property Times 3

4 Vacancy ratio Slight increase in Q4 leading to an overall average of 11% The rebound in activity recorded in Q4 has had no real impact on the vacancy rates across Europe, as new supply was abundant during the quarter. As a result, the European vacancy rate continued to stick to the 11% mark (Figure 4). The range of vacancies is still wide across the region with, amongst the major markets, Paris and London displaying vacancy rates of between 6% and 7%, whilst Frankfurt and Moscow stood at 12.5% and 13.5% respectively. However, some markets continued to suffer from vacancy rates above the 20% mark at the end of Q4 2012, as was the case of Dublin and Budapest. Only 5% increase in the European vacancy rate as new supply slowed down On a yearly basis, vacancy rates increased by 5% in 2012 across Europe as a whole with the biggest increases recorded in Geneva and Warsaw. There, new office supply was considerable in 2012, pushing up the space availabilities. The situation doesn t appear too dramatic in Geneva where the vacancy ratio was below 4% at the end of However, some concerns exist in Warsaw (8.8% of vacancy rate in Q4 2012, up from 5.8% in Q4 2011) where strong new supply in the short term will be faced by weaker demand from occupiers on the back of a weakening economy. Aside from these two extreme cases, a handful of markets witnessed an increase in vacancy rates in 2012, above the regional average. Markets such as Milan, Madrid or Budapest faced weak economies and suffered from weak occupier demand as a result. Other markets such as Kyiv or Moscow continued to register high levels of new supply, resulting in high availability ratios. Interestingly, half of the markets covered in our analysis registered a contraction in their vacancy rates, linked to the low level of new supply completed during the year. This is the case of the French markets, where ratios range between 2% in Marseille to 6.9% in the Greater Paris Region. Most of the German markets registered a decline in vacancy rates in 2012; they ranged from 6.5% in Hamburg to 12.5% in Frankfurt. Trends in vacancy tend to be more contrasted in the UK, with London slightly up in 2012 albeit remaining at a low level and the regional markets (Manchester or Birmingham) where the freeze in construction is accelerating the decrease in vacancy ratios. Figure 4 European office market- availability ratio in selected markets, % Figure 5 Europe Frankfurt London Moscow Paris region European office market vacancy rates changes (y-o-y) Geneva Warsaw Bucharest Kyiv Milan Madrid Moscow Glasgow Istanbul Budapest Copenhagen Europe Amsterdam Zurich London Barcelona Prague Oslo Paris region Rome Lyon Stockholm Dusseldorf Dublin Brussels Frankfurt Munich Manchester Hamburg Birmingham Marseille -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Property Times 4

5 Map 2 Immediate supply and vacancy rates in Europe, Q4 2012, ESRI Property Times 5

6 New office supply Lowest level in 2012 before expected rebound in 2013 As predicted in our Q3 report, the volume of new supply completed in Q4 was significantly up with 1.4 million of sq m registered. Despite this increase, 2012 was the least productive year in terms of new office completions since 2005 with the annual volume only reaching 3.7 million of sq m, down from 3.9 million in Fewer markets reported no new office completions in Q4 than in Q3; however half of the new supply was concentrated in only five markets including London, Moscow, Brussels, Warsaw and Dusseldorf. Elsewhere the level of new supply stood well below both their historical peaks and the European average. We expect new supply to rebound significantly during 2013 with over 5 million sq m expected to come to the market and 5.7 million of sq m in Demand for Grade A office space remains strong and the freeze in construction in most European markets dried up the supply of good-quality space. However, developers and investors cautiousness is reflected in our forecast for new supply, which is up on a yearly basis but still well below its peak of 2007 when 7.6 million sq m were delivered to the market. Strong office pipeline in Central and Eastern Europe We expect close to 11 million sq m of new supply to be delivered across the European region in 2013 and 2014, up by 36% on The office market will witness more usual levels of new construction, having had a difficult year last year. However, investors and developers are staying cautious on launching new projects. Istanbul is expected to register the highest volume of new supply over the next two years, with 519,000 sq m announced for the full period, representing 24% of its existing stock at the end of Construction projects will continue to be dynamic in Kyiv and Bucharest with 300,000 and 350,000 sq m of office space in the pipeline. There demand for Grade A space remains strong on the back of a positive economic outlook. Having delivered 268,000 sq m of office space during 2012 (a record level), Warsaw will witness a slight decline in new office supply in 2013 and 2014 with 230,000 sq m expected each year. Warsaw remains one of the most dynamic European markets in terms of new office supply. London and Paris will outperform the regional average with new supply over the next 2 years amounting to 1.2 and 2.4 million sq m respectively. However, part of these projects is still only potential and will depend on a significant improvement of the market during Figure 6 European office market new supply, sq m Figure 7 European office market development pipeline in 2013 and 2014 as % of stock Istanbul Kyiv Bucharest Warsaw Prague Luxembourg Lyon Budapest London Copenhagen Paris region Marseille Milan Geneva Oslo Europe Brussels Frankfurt Rome Madrid Barcelona Hamburg Dusseldorf Berlin Stockholm Birmingham Munich Zurich Manchester Glasgow 0% 10% 20% 30% Property Times 6

7 Office prime rents Modest increases in rents recorded in 2012 No significant changes in prime office rents were recorded in Q4 2012, with only a 0.2% increase on a quarterly basis. Prime office rents in 21 out of 24 markets covered in our analysis remained unchanged over the last quarter of the year. On an annual basis, prime office rents posted a 1.1% increase, following a 4.2% increase in The biggest increases were recorded in Oslo (+8%), Tallinn and Helsinki (+7%). Amongst the major European office markets, London West End and Paris CBD also ended the year on a positive note with prime rents rising by 2.6% and 2.5% over the past 12 months. Prime rents in Paris CBD ( 820/ sq m/year) have already returned to their pre-crisis levels whilst in London, they still stand well below their peak level ( 1,284/ sq m/year in Q compared to 1.489/sq m/year in ). The economic turmoil in Spain and Italy have impacted the level of prime rents in Milan and Madrid with declines of 4% and 7% registered in 2012 respectively. Despite low levels of new supply delivered in the CBD, many occupiers favoured relocations to the peripheries where rents are typically more affordable. As a result landlords have to adjust their rental values in central locations in order to lure new tenants or retain existing ones. Figure 8 European office market prime rents Q (y-o-y change in %) Oslo Tallinn Helsinki Luxembourg Bucharest London (WE) Paris (CBD) Stockholm Brussels Europe Amsterdam Budapest Copenhagen Dublin Frankfurt Geneva Istanbul Prague Vilnius Warsaw Zurich Moscow Milan Kyiv Madrid -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% No change from Q As part of leasing contract negotiations, incentives are becoming increasingly popular. Rent-free periods can vary as much as three months in the German markets and 24 months in London for a 10 years contract. We expect incentives to remain stable in 2013 before witnessing a decline in 2014 in some key office markets, incentives should remain stable in 2013 before a decline expected in 2014 for some markets like Paris and London West End. Property Times 7

8 Map 3 Prime office rents, Q4 2012, ESRI Property Times 8

9 Outlook 1.2% increase expected in 2013 and yearly increases of 2.5% between 2014 and 2016 Aggregate prime office rents are forecasted to rise by an average 1.2% during 2013, a similar level to what we expected in our previous round of forecasts. Despite the gloomy economic outlook for next year, the European office market will show some signs of resilience, with end of year take-up of 10.9 million sq m expected and a stable vacancy rate of 11%. Rental values are clearly under pressure in a market very much influenced by tenant decisions. However adjustments to occupiers budget constraints are mainly managed through incentives given by landlords rather than through falls in rents. Looking forward, prime rents will continue to rise between 2014 and 2017, with yearly average increases of 2.4% Forecasted rental growth has been downgraded for 2014 in order to reflect a longer than expected economic slowdown now predicted across Europe Top rank for London West End London West End offices top the rental growth forecast, with increases of 5.9% p.a. expected over the next five years as a relatively tight supply boosts rents. Moscow and Dublin come second and third, at 4.9% p.a. and 4.6% p.a. respectively. Although our forecasts for Madrid and Barcelona office markets in 2013 remain negative, rents are expected to show some resilience from 2015 onwards, with average rental growth for expected to be higher than the likes of Stockholm, Paris CBD and Warsaw. We remain broadly positive for prime office rental values in Europe for the 5 next years with the majority of markets forecasting increases, even if sometimes small ones. Minor decreases are expected in Bucharest (-0.3%) and Prague (-0.2%) over the same period whilst Zurich, Brussels and Düsseldorf should register a slight increase, from 0.2% to 0.4%. Figure 9 European office rental forecasts 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Figure 10 Highest and lowest forecast average rental growth ( ) 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Property Times 9

10 Definitions Availability Availability ratio Development pipeline Grade A floorspace Net absorption New supply Prelet Prime rent Stock Take-up Vacancy Commercial Total floorspace in properties marketed as available to let, whether physically vacant or occupied, and ready for occupation either immediately, or, in the case of occupied space/new developments, within the next 6 months. Total space currently available as a percentage of the total stock of floorspace Comprises two elements: 1. Floorspace in course of development, defined as buildings being constructed or comprehensively refurbished to grade A standard. 2. Schemes with the potential to be built in the future, though having secured planning permission/development certification. Buildings newly developed or comprehensively refurbished (involving structural alteration, and/or the substantial replacement of the main services and finishes), not previously occupied, including sublet space not previously occupied. The change in the total of occupied floorspace over a specified period of time, either positive or negative. Total marketed grade A floorspace which is ready for occupation either now or within the next six months. Ready for occupation means practical completion, where either the building has been issued with an occupancy permit, where required, or where only fit-out is lacking. A development leased or sold prior to completion The highest rent that could be achieved for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant. (NB. This is a net rent, excluding service charge or tax, and is based on a standard lease, excluding exceptional deals for that particular market.) Total accommodation in the commercial and public sectors both occupied and vacant. Floorspace acquired for occupation, including the following: (i) offices let/sold to an eventual occupier; (ii) developments pre-let/sold to an occupier; (iii) owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long leasehold. (NB. This includes subleases but excludes lease renewals.) Floorspace that is empty - i.e. not occupied. It may be being marketed, or it may not (whether because a lessee is not occupying, it is being refurbished, or deliberately being left empty by the landlord Property Times 10

11 Other DTZ Research Reports Other research reports can be downloaded from These include: Occupier Perspective Updates on occupational markets from an occupier perspective, with commentary, analysis, charts and data. Global Occupancy Costs Offices 2012 Obligations of Occupation Americas 2012 Obligations of Occupation Asia Pacific 2012 Obligations of Occupation EMEA 2012 Property Times Regular updates on occupational markets from a landlord perspective, with commentary, charts, data and forecasts. Coverage includes Asia Pacific, Bangkok, Beijing, Berlin, Brisbane, Bristol, Brussels, Budapest, Central London, Chengdu, Chongqing, Dalian, Edinburgh, Europe, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, India, Jakarta, Japan, Kuala Lumpur, Luxembourg, Madrid, Manchester, Melbourne, Milan, Nanjing, Newcastle, Paris, Poland, Prague, Qingdao, Rome, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Singapore, Stockholm, Sydney, Taipei, Tianjin, Ukraine, Warsaw, Wuhan, Xian. Investment market update Regular updates on investment market activity, with commentary, significant deals, charts, data and forecasts. Coverage includes Asia Pacific, Australia, Belgium, Czech Republic, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mainland China, South East Asia, Spain, Sweden and UK. Money into Property For more than 35 years, this has been DTZ's flagship research report, analysing invested stock and capital flows into real estate markets across the world. It measures the development and structure of the global investment market. Available for Global, Asia Pacific, Europe and UK. Foresight Quarterly commentary, analysis and insight into our inhouse data forecasts, including the DTZ Fair Value Index. Available for Global, Asia Pacific, Europe and UK. In addition we publish an annual outlook report. Insight Thematic, ad hoc, topical and thought leading reports on areas and issues of specific interest and relevance to real estate markets. India Special Economic Zones-December 2012 Singapore Executive Condominiums -December 2012 European Retail Guide- Shopping Centres-December 2012 UK Secondary market pricing-december 2012 Singapore office demand-november 2012 Ecommerce & Logistics -November 2012 Net Debt Funding Gap-November 2012 German Open Ended Funds-October 2012 London office to residential conversions-october 2012 Great Wall of Money-October 2012 DTZ Research Data Services For more detailed data and information, the following are available for subscription. Please contact for more information. Property Market Indicators Time series of commercial and industrial market data in Asia Pacific and Europe. Real Estate Forecasts, including the DTZ Fair Value IndexTM Five year rolling forecasts of commercial and industrial markets in Asia Pacific, Europe and the USA. Investment Transaction Database Aggregated overview of investment activity in Asia Pacific and Europe. Money into Property DTZ s flagship research product for over 35 years providing capital markets data covering capital flows, size, structure, ownership, developments and trends, and findings of annual investor and lender intention surveys. Property Times 11

12 DTZ Research Contacts Global Head of Research Hans Vrensen Phone: +44 (0) Head of Global Forecasting Matthew Hall Phone: +44 (0) Head of CEMEA Research Magali Marton Phone: Head of South-Asia Research Dominic Brown Phone: Head of Strategy Research Nigel Almond Phone: +44 (0) Head of Strategy Research Nigel Almond Phone: +44 (0) Head of UK Research Ben Burston Phone: +44 (0) Head of Greater China Research David Ji Phone: Head of Americas Research John Wickes Phone: DISCLAIMER This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. DTZ February Property Times 12

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