European Market Study

Transcription

1 European Market Study Statistical Benchmark Analysis of Chinese market growth potential to Scandinavian tourism industry By Claus Sager, Tourismdesign - Frankfurt (DE) - M: tourismdesign2006@yahoo.com Page 1

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3 PREFACE Flying the Dragon, while avoiding its burn China s outbound travel market is growing exponentially while Europe s economy and consumption are stagnating. China s middle class is on the rise and with 80+ mio. outbound travellers in 2012, Chinese tourists are quickly becoming the travel industry s number one growth segment. The rapid development and huge potential of the Chinese source market have also been felt in Europe, where European cities across the continent have seen an average of two digit annual growth rates in Chinese bednights since 2007, skyrocketing from 2009 onwards and surpassing an average annual growth of 30% in But with this impressive growth comes more than just numbers. Tourism creates jobs, builds relations politically, culturally and economically. Tourism connects companies, schools, universities, organisations and governments and most importantly: People. That s why Chinas outbound travel market is a must-win battle for Scandinavia. And that s why the Chinavia project was launched in 2012 in collaboration between Wonderful Copenhagen, Göteborg & Co, Stockholm Visitors Board and Helsinki Tourism & Congress bureau. The aim of the project is to gain a deeper insight into the Chinese travel market, the preferences of the modern Chinese travellers and the performance of our destinations in serving them. The project has accomplished all of this and hereby presents one of five market studies all documenting the vast potential promised by the Chinese market and the great affection many Chinese visitors have for Scandinavia. But the studies also identify Scandinavia s common challenges in gaining attention and visibility in the digitalized Chinese travel market and difficulties of engaging in dialogue with the Chinese netizens. Another main alert is the fact that the welcoming and service of Chinese tourists in our cities need to be much better if we are to sustain or even gain market share in the fierce competition with continental destinations. This report presents the results of a statistical benchmark study of the Chinese source market segment in European cities. Commissioned by the Chinavia cities, the data collection and analysis was carried out by Tourismdesign in early The study provides insights into the development of Chinese bednights in European cities and the growth perspectives for Scandinavian city tourism. The Chinavia pilot project has been managed and executed by Wonderful Copenhagen in close cooperation with the project partners. All elements of the Chinavia research package are made publicly available with thanks to the project partners and gratitude to the many Chinese visitors who participated. In the spirit of sharing, we hope, you will find this report informative and useful. Peter Rømer Hansen Vice President, Business Development & Communications prh@woco.dk Signe Jungersted Project Manager, Chinavia Project sij@woco.dk

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5 ABOUT CHINAVIA Chinavia a Scandinavian project Chinavia is the title of a Scandinavian cooperation project targeting the Chinese outbound travel market. Initiated in 2012, the present project phase is a one-year pilot probing a larger, strategic roll-out. The objective of this pilot phase is to identify the main issue areas and opportunities in terms of reaching and servicing the Chinese consumers. The Chinavia package The Chinese travel market is a highly complex, fastmoving market. The research deliverables of the Chinavia pilot reflect this complexity in focusing on different aspects of the market, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of the market anno 2012 and forward. In addition to present statistical study, the list of deliverables also includes: Market Review: A desk research review of existing knowledge and research on the Chinese outbound travel market, outlining the main market perspectives for Scandinavian city tourism. Best Practice Survey: A survey of marketing activities of European cities towards the Chinese market, identifying best practice and benchmarking Scandinavian city efforts against those of other European cities. Explorative web study: A mapping of the Chinese internet landscape, providing a snapshot of Scandinavian online presence in China. Chinese visitor survey: A survey profiling the Chinese tourist in Scandinavia and identifying main travel motivations and experiences of the Chinese tourists travelling to the Scandinavian destinations. 5

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7 Main observations: Executive summary China is the fastest growing source market segment the European City Tourism sector. On average the Chinese source market for city tourism grew by 8% during , further accelerating by 13% during the period Important to note is that during the year 2011 alone Chinese bednight volumes expanded by more than 30 % in 27 major European city destinations. The big 5 European city destinations for the emergent Chinese source market are Paris, London, Rome, Vienna and Milan with annual bednight volumes between and (see chart 1) Prague, Lucerne, Paris, Venice, Vienna, Munich, Berlin and Zurich reported the highest growth of Chinese bednight volumes during the period (see charts 4 & 11) Lucerne, Padua, Frankfurt, Vicenza, Innsbruck and Turin and have the highest proportion of Chinese bednights in its international guest mix during the recent years. (see chart 7) Frankfurt, Innsbruck, Turin and Zurich exhibit the highest level of specialisation serving the Chinese visitors in European cities tourism during (see chart 14) Page 7

8 Executive summary, cont. Main observations: Among the Scandinavian cities Stockholm reports the highest average annual growth rate for Chinese bednights with 13,1% during , followed by Copenhagen with 12,8%, Oslo with 7,8%, Gothenburg with 7,6% and Helsinki with a slight negative growth of -0,4%. Copenhagen is the volume strongest Scandinavian destination registering Chinese bednights in 2011, followed by Stockholm with bednights, Helsinki with bednights, Gothenburg with bednights and Oslo with Chinese bednights. Scandinavian Cities have not been overly attractive to the first wave of Chinese visitors coming to Europe at the beginning of the last decade. (see chart 5) Furthermore the Scandinavian cities seem to be losing comparative market share to important gateway city destinations in central Europe. (see charts 4 & 9) Nevertheless a simple linear scenario suggests great growth potential. For all 5 Chinavia cities together up to the year 2020, the aggregated market growth projection (average annual growth of 6,9%) will result in additional bednights that create an additional turnover of 30 million Euros and 375 full time employments (FTE) for the Chinavia cities travel and hospitality sector. The linear projection further shows the accumulated year by year figures for the 4 Chinavia cities will add up to a total of 3 million Chinese bednights during that period, equalling an estimated turnover of 600 million Euros. Page 8

9 Table of content Methodology: Page 2-6 Part I: Chinese Bednight Development in European Cities Page 7 15 Part II: Chinese Bednight Development in European Cities Page Part III: Chinese Source Market Analysis Page Part IV: Linear Forecast Modeling Page Sources for all figures: TourMIS and own calculations Page 9

10 Methodology The included cities I. European Cities Tourism Reporting Standards City Def City Def City Def City Def 1 Amsterdam NG 16 Düsseldorf NA 31 Ljubljana NA 46 Stockholm NA 2 Antwerp NA 17 Florence NG 32 London NZS 47 Stuttgart NA 3 Barcelona NG 18 Frankfurt NA 33 Lucerne NA 48 Tallinn NA 4 Basel NG 19 Geneva NG 34 Lyon NG 49 Tampere NA 5 Berlin NA 20 Genua NG 35 Malmö NA 50 Turin NA 6 Bern NG 21 Ghent NA 36 Milan NG 51 Turku NA 7 Bonn NA 22 Gothenburg NGS 37 Munich NG 52 Valencia NG 8 Bratislava NA 23 Hamburg NA 38 Nürnberg NA 53 Venice NA 9 Bruges NA 24 Hannover NA 39 Oslo NG 54 Verona NA 10 Brussels NA 25 Heidelberg NA 40 Padua NA 55 Vicenza NA 11 Budapest NA 26 Helsinki NA 41 Paris NG 56 Vienna NAS 12 Cologne NA 27 Innsbruck NA 42 Prague NA 57 Zagreb NA 13 Copenhagen NAS 28 Lausanne NG 43 Reims NG 58 Zurich NA 14 Dresden NA 29 Leipzig NA 44 Rome NG 15 Dubrovnik NA 30 Linz NA 45 Salzburg NA City tourism data definitions: NA = Bednights in all paid forms of accommodation establishments in city area NAS = Bednights in all paid forms of accommodation establishments in greater city area NG = Bednights in hotels and similar establishments in city area only NGS = Bednights in hotels and similar establishments in greater city area Sources for all figures: TourMIS and own calculations Page 10

11 Methodology Data Availability 1. Sample of 58 cities with almost complete data sets of Chinese source market segment during , and complete data sets of all international markets segments important for European city tourism. 2. Sample of cities with partially complete data sets of the Chinese bednights, with January September/October/ November 2011 results. The 2011 results of 5 cities are based on estimates. 27 cities group Amsterdam, Antwerp, Berlin, Bratislava, Brussels, Copenhagen, Dresden, Frankfurt, Genoa, Gothenburg, Hamburg, Helsinki, Innsbruck, Ljubljana, Malmö, Munich, Nurnberg, Oslo, Paris, Prague, Rome, Salzburg, Stockholm, Valencia, Vienna, Zagreb, Zurich. 5 cities group Barcelona, Budapest, London, Turin, Venice. Sources for all figures: TourMIS and own calculations Page 11

12 Part I Chinese Bednight Development in European Cities Sample of 58 European City Destinations Page 12

13 Salzburg Nurnberg Turin Oslo Verona Göteborg Dresden Antwerp Valencia Genua Bern Lausanne Lyon Hannover Zagreb Basel Bratislava Vicenza Heidelberg Ljubljana Linz Bonn Leipzig Tallinn Bruges Malmö Dubrovnik Tampere Ghent Turku Reims Bednight volumes in thousands Paris London Rome Frankfurt Vienna Milan Munich Berlin Prague Lucerne Zurich Venice Barcelona Amsterdam Florence Brussels Budapest Copenhagen Stockholm Düsseldorf Cologne Innsbruck Helsinki Hamburg Geneva Stuttgart Padua Bednight volumes in thousands European Cities - Chinese bednight volumes Chinese bednight volumes in thousands Chinese bednight volumes in thousands cities sample: * Barcelona, Florence and Milan 2010 figures are estimates Page 13

14 Vicenza Hamburg Munich Turku Lyon Rome Florence Cologne Bonn Stuttgart Paris Gothenburg Antwerp Frankfurt Vienna Copenhagen Tampere Padua London Nürnberg Milan Helsinki Innsbruck Amsterdam Hannover Brussels Ghent Oslo Linz Salzburg Turin Bratislava Dresden Dubrovnik Lucerne Tallinn Ljubljana Prague Valencia Venice Basel Bern Lausanne Budapest Barcelona Leipzig Genua Zagreb Zurich Verona Malmö Düsseldorf Bruges Berlin Geneva Heidelberg Stockholm Reims 2.European Cities - Chinese bednights growth Average annual growth (pct) Average annual growth (pct) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 0% -10% -20% 38% 35% Average annual growth rates in Chinese bednight volumes % 30% 30% 30% 29% 23% Benchmark average = 8,0% 19% 18% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% Average annual growth rates in Chinese bednight volumes cont. 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Benchmark average = 8,0% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% -1% -2% -2% -4% -4% -5% -7% -11% -11% -19% 58 cities sample: * Barcelona, Florence and Milan 2010 figures are estimates Page 14

15 Bednight volume growth 2010 Basel Antwerp Dresden Oslo Ljubljana Heidelberg Nürnberg Hamburg Lyon Zagreb Bratislava Genua Linz Dubrovnik Tallinn Turku Malmö Bruges Reims Bonn Tampere Salzburg Gothenburg Ghent Lucerne Turin Amsterdam London Paris Zurich Frankfurt Munich Berlin Vienna Cologne Prague Düsseldorf Copenhagen Rome Geneva Stockholm Venice Brussels Budapest Stuttgart Padua Innsbruck Bern Vicenza Verona Lausanne Valencia Helsinki Hanover Leipzig Bednight volume growth European Cities - Chinese bednights growth ranking % 32% Chinese bednight volume growth in nominal and percentage terms % 30% 31% 26% 19% 80% Benchmark nominal average = cities average growth rate 2010 = 26% 21% 50% 25% 8% 49% 24% 13% 14% 14% 36% 36% 16% 71% 114% 37% 58% 32% 8% 39% 68% 0 Chinese bednight volume growth in nominal and percentage terms continued % 20% 18% 16% 40% 35% 11% 6% 23% Benchmark nominal average = cities average growth rate 2010 = 26% 0 19% 19% 13% 21% 53% 24% 96% 24% 22% 84% 9% 12% 0% -1% -24% -2% -42% -33% cities sample Page 15

16 Bednight volume growth Ljubljana Zagreb Tallinn Leipzig Heidelberg Vicenza Gothenburg Lyon Antwerp Dubrovnik Malmö Bruges Padua Bonn Nürnberg Reims Turku Tampere Milan Ghent Hanover Helsinki Innsbruck Linz Oslo Amsterdam Brussels Salzburg Turin Prague Lucerne Paris Venice Zurich Barcelona Berlin Rome Budapest Munich Frankfurt Düsseldorf Stockholm Florence Vienna Geneva Dresden London Hamburg Cologne Valencia Bratislava Verona Bern Lausanne Copenhagen Genua Stuttgart Basel Bednight volume growth European Cities - Chinese bednights growth ranking % 277% 24% Chinese bednight volume growth in nominal and percentage terms % 85% 104% 61% 31% 105% Benchmark nominal average = % 58 cities average growth rate = 54% % 62% 56% 29% 15% 58% 351% 4% 36% 29% 186% 394% 82% 128% 111% 11% 89% 27% 133% 0 Chinese bednight volume growth in nominal and percentage terms continued % 88% Benchmark nominal average = cities average growth rate = 54% 271% 92% 58% 45% 21% 32% 21% 284% 79% 74% 7% 28% 3% 51% 33% 10% 0% -24% -17% -5% -9% -44% -32% -12% -20% -45% -65% cities sample Page 16

17 Bednight growth index 2007 = 100 Tallinn Ljubljana Bratislava Dubrovnik Dresden Prague Basel Venice Lausanne Turku Gothenburg Budapest Bonn Lucerne Heidelberg Verona Antwerp Zagreb Innsbruck Barcelona Padua Stockholm Leipzig Düsseldorf Geneva Rome Helsinki Stuttgart Munich Hamburg Paris Bruges Nurnberg Berlin Frankfurt Lyon Genoa Milan Zurich Valencia Florence Bern Amsterdam Tampere London Brussels Malmö Cologne Vienna Hannover Copenhagen Reims Ghent Oslo Linz Vicenza Salzburg Valencia Lucerne Vicenza Dresden Bern Bratislava Prague Malmö Dubrovnik Zurich Reims Genoa Barcelona Leipzig Bruges Berlin Zagreb Venice Ljubljana Budapest Turin Cologne Verona Düsseldorf Lausanne Geneva Basel Tallinn Copenhagen Stockholm Florence Vienna Lyon Hamburg Munich Heidelberg Tampere Rome Paris London Stuttgart Frankfurt Salzburg Milan Oslo Ghent Nurnberg Antwerp Hannover Bonn Amsterdam Turku Padua Brussels Gothenburg Helsinki Linz Innsbruck Bednight growth index 2005 = Chinese City Tourism to Europe First Wave & Second Wave First wave growth destinations: Chinese bednights growth index Benchmark average =136 Second wave growth destinations: Chinese bednights growth index Benchmark average = cities sample: Page 17

18 Verona Bern Linz Vicenza Stockholm Valencia Munich Frankfurt Padua Oslo Berlin Heidelberg Genua Düsseldorf Reims Cologne Nürnberg Stuttgart Gothenburg Malmö Bonn Dresden Turku Hannover Hamburg Lyon Leipzig Turin Tampere Degree of Internationalisation Ljubljana Dubrovnik Prague Tallinn Venice Budapest Geneva Amsterdam Brussels Bruges London Barcelona Vienna Zurich Zagreb Innsbruck Lucerne Antwerp Ghent Basel Florence Lausanne Salzburg Rome Paris Copenhagen Milan Bratislava Helsinki Degree of Internationalisation 6. European Cities Ranking by Internationalization 100% 96% 94% 90% 90% 87% 86% 85% Share of international bednights in a city-destination 2010 Benchmark average =54,5% 80% 60% 81% 80% 80% 79% 78% 77% 77% 75% 74% 74% 74% 73% 72% 72% 71% 71% 70% 63% 62% 59% 57% 54% 40% 20% 0% Share of international bednights in a city-destination 2010 cont. 60% 54% 52% 52% 51% 50% Benchmark average =54,5% 48% 47% 45% 44% 43% 41% 40% 40% 39% 38% 40% 20% 34% 30% 30% 27% 25% 23% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 18% 17% 0% 58 cities sample: Page 18

19 Gothenburg Venice Pct. share of international bednights Paris Brussels Lyon Salzburg Stockholm Vienna Malmö Berlin Basel Budapest Zagreb Antwerp Bratislava Oslo Rome Turku Ljubljana Amsterdam Prague Valencia Barcelona *London Reims Bruges Ghent Tallinn Dubrovnik Lucerne Padua Frankfurt Vicenza Innsbruck Pct. share of international bednights Turin Bern Zurich Düsseldorf Stuttgart Cologne Nürnberg Milan Hannover Bonn Helsinki Lausanne Genua Munich Verona Hamburg Geneva Linz Florence Dresden Heidelberg Tampere Copenhagen Leipzig 11% 7. European Cities Chinese Percentage of International Tourism 6% 4% 2% 5,3% 4,8% Chinese bednights as percentage share of international bednights ,3% 4,1% 3,8% 3,3% 3,1% 3,1% 3,1% 2,7% 2,7% 2,5% 2,3% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% Benchmark average = 1,8% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 1,9% 1,9% 1,9% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,6% 1,6% 0% Chinese bednights as percentage share of international bednights 2010 cont. 2% Benchmark average = 1,8% 1,6% 1,5% 1,5% 1,4% 1,4% 1,3% 1,3% 1,3% 1,3% 1% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% 1,1% 1,1% 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% 0,9% 0,9% 0,7% 0,7% 0,7% 0% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 58 cities sample: Page 19

20 Gothenburg Pct. share of international bednights Venice Paris Brussels Lyon Salzburg Stockholm Vienna Malmö Berlin Basel Budapest Zagreb Antwerp Bratislava Oslo Rome Turku Ljubljana Amsterdam Prague Valencia Barcelona London Reims Bruges Ghent Tallinn Dubrovnik Lucerne Padua Frankfurt Vicenza Innsbruck Turin Pct. share of international bednights Bern Zurich Düsseldorf Stuttgart Cologne Nurnberg Milan Hannover Bonn Helsinki Lausanne Genoa Munich Verona Hamburg Geneva Linz Florence Dresden Heidelberg Tampere Copenhagen Leipzig 8. European Cities Chinese Percentage of International Tourism 8% Chinese bednights as percentage share of international bednights 2005 versus % Benchmark average 2010 =1,8% Benchmark average 2005 =1,5% 4% 2% 0% Chinese bednights as percentage share of international bednights 2005 versus 2010 cont. 2% Benchmark average 2010 =1,8% Benchmark average 2005 =1,5% 1% 0% 58 cities sample: Page 20

21 Part II Chinese Bednight Development in European Cities Sample of 32 European City Destinations Page 21

22 Malmö Bratislava Prague Valencia Zurich Genoa Dresden Zagreb Ljubljana Berlin Salzburg Vienna Stockholm Copenhagen Munich Barcelona Hamburg Nurnberg Venice Budapest Turin Paris Oslo Gothenburg Frankfurt Rome Antwerp Amsterdam London Brussels Innsbruck Helsinki Paris Prague Vienna Zurich Berlin Munich Frankfurt London Rome Barcelona Copenhagen Venice Stockholm Budapest Hamburg Salzburg Amsterdam Nurnberg Bratislava Genoa Brussels Dresden Valencia Zagreb Malmö Gothenburg Oslo Ljubljana Turin Antwerp Innsbruck Helsinki 9. European Cities - Chinese bednights growth Average annual growth (pct) Changes bednight volumes % 30% 20% 10% 0% Nominal changes in Chinese bednight volumes during 2007 and 2011 Benchmark nominal average = Average annual growth rates of Chinese bednight volumes during 2007 and 2011 Benchmark average =13,1% 32 cities sample: * Barcelona, Budapest, London, Turin and Venice 2011 figures are estimates Page 22

23 Malmö Salzburg Bratislava Gothenburg Nurnberg Zagreb Ljubljana Prague Oslo Vienna Innsbruck Munich Zurich Genoa Brussels Hamburg Amsterdam Antwerp Stockholm Paris Copenhagen Berlin Helsinki Frankfurt Rome Dresden Valencia Paris Vienna Prague Munich Zurich Berlin Frankfurt Amsterdam Brussels Salzburg Innsbruck Copenhagen Nurnberg Stockholm Hamburg Rome Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Bratislava Zagreb Malmö Genoa Antwerp Ljubljana Dresden Valencia 10. European Cities - Chinese bednights growth 2011 Annual growth (pct) Changes bednight volumes % 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Nominal changes in Chinese bednight volumes 2011 Benchmark nominal average = Annual growth rates of Chinese bednight volumes 2011 Benchmark average =33% 27 cities sample: Page 23

24 Part II 11. Development of the Nordic Destinations 180% Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2005=100) Benchmark 58 cities Stockholm Gothenburg 140% Copenhagen 100% Helsinki Oslo 60% The Nordic city destinations experienced a particularly strong growth of the Chinese source market segment during 2011 Page 24

25 Part II 12. Development of important European Gateway Destinations Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2005=100) Benchmark 58 cities Rome Berlin Berlin Munich Vienna Rome Frankfurt Amsterdam Amsterdam From 2009 onward the growth of the Chinese source market gained a dynamic momentum in many important European city destinations Page 25

26 Chinese bednights 13. Chinese tourism in Scandinavia is concentrated in the cities Chinese bednights in Scandinavia Country City Sweden Denmark Finland Norway 1. Swedish cities: Gothenburg, Malmoe and Stockholm 2. Danish cities: Copenhagen 3. Finnish cities: Helsinki, Turku and Tampere 4. Norwegian cities: Bergen and Oslo Page 26

27 Part III The Chinese Source Market in European Cities Market Analysis Page 27

28 Average annual growth of Chinese bednights i. Chinese Bednight Matrix: Growth versus market share Chinese bednights growth versus market share Bratislava Dresden 32% Dubrovnik Ljubljana Lucerne Tallinn Prague 11% 24% II.= Up Comers Valencia * AVERAGE = 1,8% I.= Super Performers Basel Venice Bern 16% 8% 0% Barcelona Bruges Reims London IV.= Loosers Budapest Zagreb Leipzig Lausanne Genoa Zurich Malmö Verona Berlin Heidelberg Geneva Düsseldorf Stockholm Turku Lyon Hamburg Munich Cologne Rome Paris Florence Bonn Antwerp Gothenburg Stuttgart Vienna Copenhagen Tampere Helsinki Nurnberg Amsterdam Milan Innsbruck Vicenza * AVERAGE = 8% Frankfurt Padua III.= Falling Stars Brussels Hanover -8% 0% Ghent Oslo -11% Salzburg -11% Linz 2% 4% Chinese percentage of international bednights 2010 * Average value of the 58 cities sample Page 28

29 Average annual growth Chinese bednights % 13ii. Chinese Bednight Matrix: Growth versus market share Chinese bednights growth versus market share Malmö 32% II.= Up Comers Valencia Prague Bratrislava * AVERAGE = 1,9% I.= Super Performers 24% Dresden Zagreb Genoa Zurich Ljubliana 16% Berlin Vienna Salzburg Stockholm * AVERAGE = 13% 8% Barcelona IV.= Loosers London Copenhagen Budapest Venice Paris Oslo Rome Antwerp Brussels Amsterdam Munich Hamburg Gothenburg Nurnberg Turin III.= Falling Stars Frankfurt Innsbruck 0% Helsinki 2% 4% 6% Chinese percentage of international bednights 2011 * Average value of the 32 cities sample Page 29

30 European Cities level of specialisation in the Chinese market The Balassa or Revealed Comparative Advantage Index: Originally developed for the analysis of regional and national specialization patterns in international trade. The numerator represents the percentage share of Chinese bednights (or any other source market segment) in a city s tourism and hospitality sector. The denominator represents the percentage share of Chinese bednights (or any other corresponding source market segment) in a sample of cities analysed, in this instance 32 European city destinations during The Balassa index applied in this context is an indicator of the cities specialisation serving different market segments (here China). If a number in a city is typical for all cities the value will be 100 in the analysis. Cities with an index greater than 100 thus show a comparative greater export specialisation of its City Tourism Industry to accommodate the analysed foreign source market segment. Cities with an index smaller than 100 are more focused on the accommodation of other source market segments. Page 30

31 Turin Frankfurt Innsbruck Nurnberg Helsinki Dresden Hamburg Zurich Genua Munich Gothenburg Amsterdam Copenhagen Stockholm Salzburg Venice Brussels Oslo Vienna Zagreb Paris Budapest Rome Berlin Bratislava Antwerp Malmö Prague Ljubljana Valencia Barcelona London 760 Frankfurt Innsbruck Turin Zurich Nurnberg Helsinki Genua Munich Hamburg Dresden Copenhagen Gothenburg Venice Paris Brussels Salzburg Stockholm Vienna Malmö Berlin Budapest Zagreb Antwerp Bratislava Oslo Rome Ljubljana Amsterdam Prague Valencia Barcelona London 14 i. European Cities level of specialisation in the Chinese market 385 Balassa Index 100 = neutral Balassa Index 100 = neutral The Balassa Index for the Chinese Source Market 2010: The Balassa Index for the Chinese Source Market 2009: cities sample: Page 31

32 Innsbruck Frankfurt Nurnberg Turin Helsinki Munich Hamburg Zurich Brussels Gothenburg Stockholm Oslo Copenhagen Genua Salzburg Paris Dresden Zagreb Antwerp Vienna Amsterdam Rome Berlin Venice Malmö Budapest Ljubljana London Bratislava Barcelona Prague Valencia Turin Innsbruck Frankfurt Nurnberg Hamburg Helsinki Dresden Munich Genua Salzburg Zurich Stockholm Copenhagen Gothenburg Oslo Brussels Amsterdam Zagreb Venice Paris Rome Vienna Berlin Bratislava Antwerp Budapest Malmö Ljubljana Prague London Barcelona Valencia ii. European Cities level of specialisation in the Chinese market Balassa Index 100 = neutral Balassa Index 100 = neutral The Balassa Index for the Chinese Source Market 2008: The Balassa Index for the Chinese Source Market 2007: cities sample: Page 32

33 Balassa Index 100 = neutral 15. European Cities level of specialisation in the Chinese market Summary of the Balassa Index for the Chinese Source Market : The Scandinavian Cities Helsinki Gothenburg Stockholm Copenhagen Oslo Page 33

34 Part IV The Chinese Source Market in European Cities Linear Scenarios Copenhagen, Gothenburg, Helsinki, Oslo, Stockholm Page 34

35 Scenarios 16. Copenhagen: Three scenarios Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2004=100) Benchmark 58 cities: Average annual growth 6,9% CPH 10% CPH 6,9% CPH 4% Benchmark index 2011: 154 CPH index 2011: The scenario +6,9% average annual growth (AAGR) would result in additional Chinese bednights annually and 11,4 million Euros turnover when compared with 2011, which is corresponding to 143 full time employments (FTE) in Copenhagen s travel and hospitality sector. Page 35

36 Copenhagen: Future Chinese source market growth Three scenarios Methodology and Insights 1. The Chinese bednight volumes grew by an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 6,9% in all 58 sample cities during ( Benchmark) 2. In Copenhagen the Chinese bednight volumes grew by 5,4% AAGR during Copenhagen s Chinese bednight growth index is 10 points below the benchmark for the 58 sample cities. 4. Figure 16 presents 3 scenarios: Scenario 1 is the continuation of the 58 cities benchmark AAGR of 6,9% up to the year Scenario 2 assumes a dynamic rate of 10% AAGR during Scenario 3 assumes a comparatively slow rate of 4 % AAGR growth of the Chinese bednight volumes in Copenhagen during Scenario 1: The AAGR of 6,9% will generate Chinese bednights in Copenhagen in 2020, corresponding to additional bednights compared with Scenario 2: The AAGR of 10% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Scenario 3: The AAGR of 4,0% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Assuming an average daily expenditure of 200 per person-bednight including accommodation, the additional Chinese bednights of scenario 1 would generate 11,4 million Euros turnover, corresponding to 143 full time employments * (FTE) in Copenhagen s travel and hospitality sector. * Based on the assumption that turnover is equivalent to 1 FTE Page 36

37 Scenarios 17. Gothenburg: Three scenarios Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2004=100) Benchmark 58 cities: Average annual growth 6,9% Got 10% Got 6,9% Goth 4% Got index 2011: 200 Benchmark index 2011: The scenario +6,9% average annual growth (AAGR) would add Chinese bednights and 3,8 million Euros turnover when compared with 2011, which is corresponding to 48 full time employments (FTE) in Gothenburg s travel and hospitality sector. Page 37

38 Gothenburg : Future Chinese source market growth Three scenarios Methodology and Insights 1. The Chinese bednight volumes grew by an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 6,9% in all 58 sample cities during ( Benchmark) 2. In Gothenburg the Chinese bednight volumes grew by 10,4% AAGR during the same period. 3. Gothenburg s Chinese bednight growth index is 56 points above the benchmark for the 58 sample cities. 4. Figure 17 presents 3 scenarios: Scenario 1 is the continuation of the 58 cities benchmark AAGR of 6,9% up to the year Scenario 2 assumes a dynamic rate of 10% AAGR during Scenario 3 assumes a comparatively slow rate of 4 % AAGR growth of the Chinese bednight volumes in Gothenburg during Scenario 1: In Gothenburg the AAGR of 6,9% will generate Chinese bednights in 2020, corresponding to additional bednights compared with Scenario 2: The AAGR of 10% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Scenario 3: The AAGR of 4% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Assuming an average daily expenditure of 200 per person-bednight including accommodation, the additional Chinese bednights of scenario 1 would generate 3,8 million Euros turnover, corresponding to 48 full time employments * (FTE) in Gothenburg s travel and hospitality sector. * Based on the assumption that turnover is equivalent to 1 FTE Page 38

39 Scenarios 18. Helsinki: Three scenarios Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2004=100) Benchmark 58 cities: Average annual growth 6,9% Hel 5,5% Benchmark index 2011: 154 Hel 4% Hel index 2011: 117 Hel 1,5% The scenario +4% average annual growth (AAGR) would add Chinese bednights and 3,8 million Euros turnover when compared with 2011, which is corresponding to 48 full time employments (FTE) in Helsinki s travel and hospitality sector. Page 39

40 Helsinki: Future Chinese source market growth Three scenarios Methodology and Insights 1. The Chinese bednight volumes grew by an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 6,9% in all 58 sample cities during ( Benchmark) 2. In Helsinki the Chinese bednight volumes grew by 2,4% AAGR during the same period. 3. Helsinki s Chinese bednight growth index is 27 points below the benchmark for the 58 sample cities. 4. Figure 18 presents 3 scenarios: In relation to Helsinki s growth history Scenario 1 assumes a relative high AAGR of 5,5% up to the year 2020 as an approximate to the 58 cities benchmark AAGR of 6,9%. Scenario 2 assumes a rate of 4% AAGR during Scenario 3 assumes a slow rate of 1,5% AAGR growth of the Chinese bednight volumes in Helsinki during Scenario 1: In Helsinki the AAGR of 5,5% will generate Chinese bednights in 2020, corresponding to additional bednights compared with Scenario 2: The AAGR of 4% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Scenario 3: The AAGR of 1,5% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Assuming an average daily expenditure of 200 per person-bednight including accommodation, the additional Chinese scenario 2 bednights would generate 3,8 million Euros turnover, corresponding to 48 full time employments * (FTE) in Helsinki s travel and hospitality sector. * Based on the assumption that turnover is equivalent to 1 FTE Page 40

41 Scenarios 19. Oslo: Three scenarios Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2004=100) Benchmark 58 cities: Average annual growth 6,9% Benchmark index 2011: 154 Oslo 5,5% Oslo 4% Oslo 1,5% Oslo index 2011: The scenario +4% average annual growth (AAGR) would add Chinese bednights and 1,8 million Euros turnover when compared with 2011, which is corresponding to 23 full time employments (FTE) in Oslo s travel and hospitality sector. Page 41

42 Oslo: Future Chinese source market growth Three scenarios Methodology and Insights 1. The Chinese bednight volumes grew by an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 6,9% in all 58 sample cities during ( Benchmark) 2. In Oslo the Chinese bednight volumes grew by 1,8% AAGR during the same period. 3. Oslo s Chinese bednight growth index is 41 points below the benchmark for the 58 sample cities. 4. Figure 19 presents 3 scenarios: In relation to Oslo s growth history Scenario 1 assumes a relative high AAGR of 5,5% up to the year 2020 as an approximate to the 58 cities benchmark AAGR of 6,9%. Scenario 2 assumes a rate of 4% AAGR during Scenario 3 assumes a slow rate of 1,5% AAGR growth of the Chinese bednight volumes in Helsinki during Scenario 1: In Oslo the AAGR of 5,5% will generate Chinese bednights in 2020, corresponding to additional bednights compared with Scenario 2: The AAGR of 4% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Scenario 3: The AAGR of 1,5% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Assuming an average daily expenditure of 200 per person-bednight including accommodation, the additional Chinese scenario 2 bednights would generate 1,8 million Euros turnover, corresponding to 23 full time employments * (FTE) in Helsinki s travel and hospitality sector. * Based on the assumption that turnover is equivalent to 1 FTE Page 42

43 Scenarios 20. Stockholm: Three scenarios Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2004=100) Benchmark 58 cities: Average annual growth 6,9% Stkh 10% Stkh 6,9% Stkh 4% Stkh index 2011: 198 Benchmark index 2011: The scenario +6,9% average annual growth (AAGR) would add Chinese bednights and 9,0 million Euros turnover when compared with 2011, which is corresponding to 113 full time employments (FTE) in Stockholm s travel and hospitality sector. Page 43

44 Stockholm: Future Chinese source market growth Three scenarios Methodology and Insights 1. The Chinese bednight volumes grew by an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 6,9% in all 58 sample cities during ( Benchmark) 2. In Stockholm the Chinese bednight volumes grew by 10,3% AAGR during the same period. 3. Stockholm s Chinese bednight growth index is 44 points above the benchmark for the 58 sample cities. 4. Figure 20 presents 3 scenarios: Scenario 1 is the continuation of the 58 cities benchmark AAGR of 6,9% up to the year Scenario 2 assumes a dynamic rate of 10% AAGR during Scenario 3 assumes a comparatively slow rate of 4 % AAGR growth of the Chinese bednight volumes in Stockholm during Scenario 1: In Stockholm the AAGR of 6,9% will generate Chinese bednights in 2020, corresponding to additional bednights compared with Scenario 2: The AAGR of 10% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Scenario 3: The AAGR of 4% will result in bednights in 2020, which are additional Chinese bednights compared with Assuming an average daily expenditure of 200 per person-bednight including accommodation, the additional Chinese scenario 1 bednights would generate 9,2 million Euros turnover, corresponding to 115 full time employments * (FTE) in Stockholm s travel and hospitality sector. * Based on the assumption that turnover is equivalent to 1 FTE Page 44

45 Scenarios 21. Aggregation of the 5 Chinavia Cities: Three scenarios Chinese Bednight Growth Indices (2004=100) Benchmark 58 cities: Average annual growth 6,9% All 10% All 6,9% All Chinavia Cities index 2011: 148 Benchmark index 2011: All 4% The scenario +6,9% average annual growth (AAGR) would add Chinese bednights and 29,8 million Euros turnover when compared with 2011, which is corresponding to 375 full time employments (FTE) to the Chinavia cities travel and hospitality sector. Page 45

46 Scenarios 22 i. Summary Table Scenario +4,0% Bednights 2011 Bednights 2020 Diff (20-11) Accumulated Bednights * Est Turnover * Est Job effect * Copenhagen Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Stockholm All Chinavia cities * Accumulated estimates over the period Page 46

47 Scenarios 22 ii. Summary Table Scenario +6,9% Bednights 2011 Bednights 2020 Diff (20-11) Accumulated Bednights * Est Turnover * Est Job effect * Copenhagen Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Stockholm All Chinavia cities * Accumulated estimates over the period Page 47

48 Scenarios 22 iii. Summary Table Scenario +10% Bednights 2011 Bednights 2020 Diff (20-11) Accumulated Bednights * Est Turnover * Est Job effect * Copenhagen Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Stockholm All Chinavia cities * Accumulated estimates over the period Page 48