Housing Market Overview Prepared for CitiBank. October 2013

Transcription

1 Prepared for CitiBank October 213

2 Combined capital cities Over the September 213 quarter, according to the RP Data- Rismark Home Value Index, home values across the combined capital cities increased by 3.7% and home values are currently at their all-time peak. Home values across the combined capital cities are now 6.8% higher than they were at the end of 212 and 5.5% higher than they were one year ago in September 212. Over the quarter, the performance of the detached housing market compared to the medium and high density unit market has been comparable, with a 3.8% quarterly increase for houses and 3.2% for units. However, over the past year, the performance has been more varied with house values appreciating by 5.7% and unit values up by 4.4%. RP Data estimates that there have been 293,827 capital city homes sold over the 12 months to July 213, which indicates sales volumes are currently 1.8% higher than they were one year ago. The current level of sales across the combined capital city markets are.1% higher than the five year average. Rental rates for houses across the combined capital cities have increased by 3.1% over the year to $477/week and for units, rents are currently $444/week, which is 2.6% higher than 12 months ago. While rental rates have increased over the year, over the past three months rental rates have remained virtually unchanged. Gross rental yield for houses are currently 4.% and 4.7% for units, which are both.1% lower than a year ago. 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, combined capital city home values -1.% Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-1 Jun-3 Jun-5 Jun-7 Jun-9 Jun-11 Jun-13 Rolling annual number of combined capital city house and unit sales 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Apr-98 Apr-1 Apr-4 Apr-7 Apr-1 Apr-13 Rolling annual number of sales (LHS) Rolling five year avearage (LHS) Rolling quarterly number of sales (RHS) Sydney According to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, Sydney home values have increased by 5.2% over the September quarter, the largest increase across each of the capital city markets. Over the past year, Sydney dwelling values have appreciated by a substantial 8.%, outperforming compared to the combined capital city benchmark (5.5%). While Sydney home value growth is currently strong, it is important to note that over the past ten years, the average annual growth across the Sydney housing market has been much softer than other capital city markets. Sydney home values are currently 6.6% higher than their previous peak. Over the 3 months to September, detached house values increased by 5.6%, compared to a lower 3.3% for units. It is estimated that there were 92,121 Sydney properties sold over the 12 months to July 213, which indicates that current sales volumes 1.5% higher than the five year average for Sydney and 8.6% higher than over the 12 months to July 212. Compared to the three months to July 212, the number of sales over the three months to July 213 is 29.6% higher. Rental rates across Sydney have increased by 3.7% for houses and 3.3% for units over the past 12 months. The current rental rate for a typical Sydney house is $577/week and $55/week for units. Gross rental yields have fallen from 4.2% a year ago for houses to 4.% and from 4.9% to 4.8% for units. 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-1 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Sydney home values Rolling annual number of Sydney house and unit sales 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Jul-98 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 5, 2

3 Melbourne Melbourne home values rose by 2.4% in September, according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index and over the September quarter, dwelling values are 5.% higher. Following on from Sydney, Melbourne is one of the strongest performing capital city markets in terms of home value growth over the past three months. Melbourne s detached housing market has been a stronger performer compared to the unit market, with house values up 5.2%, compared to a 3.2% rise in unit values over the quarter. Despite this recent growth, Melbourne home values are still -1.9% below their historic high. Over the 12 months to July 213, RP Data estimates that 77,145 Melbourne homes were sold. Transaction volumes to July 213 are 7.9% higher than the volume of sales recorded over the year to July 212, however, sales volumes are -7.5% lower than the five year average levels of transactions across the city. Melbourne rental rates have risen over the 12 months to September, with house rents up 2.1% and unit rents having risen by 2.%. The current rental rate for Melbourne houses is $434/week and the gross rental yield has fallen slightly over the year from 3.6% to 3.5%. For units, the weekly rental rate is recorded at $39/week and the gross rental yield has remained unchanged at 4.3%, which is comparatively stronger than the Melbourne detached housing market. 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Melbourne home values -1.% Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-1 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 Rolling annual number of Melbourne house and unit sales 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Jul-98 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 5, Brisbane Based on the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, Brisbane home values rose by 1.2% over the September quarter, with both detached houses and units recording the same uplift in values. Over the year to September, value growth across the Brisbane market has been relatively weak with a 1.1% increase in dwelling values over this time. Brisbane home values continue to track below their historic high, currently -9.7% below their November 29 peak. While Brisbane s recent performance has been somewhat lacklustre, it provides a more affordable option for purchasing property when compared to Sydney and Melbourne. RP Data estimates that over the 12 months to July 213 there were 41,977 Brisbane homes sold, indicating that current sales volumes are 14.6% higher than one year earlier. Despite this increase, sales volumes remain -.9% lower than the five year average. Across Brisbane, rental rates for both houses and units have increased over the past year, however house rents are up by a substantially larger amount (2.6%), compared to only a slight increase across the unit market (.3%). The current rental rate for a Brisbane houses is recorded at $424/week and $44/week for units, which makes Brisbane the city with the smallest difference between house and unit rental rates. Gross rental yields have increased from 4.6% to 4.7% for houses over the year, while for units; yields remain unchanged at 5.6%. 3 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-1 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Brisbane home values Rolling annual number of Brisbane house and unit sales 25, 2, 15, 1, Jul-98 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 5,

4 Adelaide Adelaide dwelling values increased by just.3% over the month of September 213 according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. However, over the month of September, dwelling values are up 1.1%. The performance of the detached housing market and the unit market over the September quarter was very different. House values have fallen by -.1%, compared to a 4.1% rise in unit values. Over the year to July, it is estimated that 24,43 Adelaide homes transacted. In comparison, one year ago, sales volumes were lower, with current sales activity estimated to be 4.9% higher. Although volumes have increased over the past year and appear to be continuously improving, current sales activity is -4.8% lower than the five year average sales volumes across Adelaide. Across Adelaide, the median rental rate for houses is recorded at $364/week and $31/week for units. The current rental rate for Adelaide houses has increased by 2.7% over the past twelve months and gross rental yields have also risen, from 4.2% one year ago to 4.3% currently. For units, rental rates have increased slightly over the year (.8%), while the gross rental yield has remained unchanged at 4.7%. Perth Based on the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, dwelling values in Perth recorded a 1.3% increase over the three months ending September 213. Home values across the city have risen by 7.6% over the past year, which makes Perth one of the strongest performing capital city markets on a yearly basis behind Sydney. The performance across Perth s house and unit market has been quite different recently, with values for houses up 1.% over the quarter and unit values having risen by a substantial 5.3% over the same three month period. Perth home values are currently -.3% below their July 213 peak. Since late 211, the rolling annual sales volumes across the Perth market have been increasing. RP Data estimates that over the year to July 213 there were 42,936 homes sold across Perth. Compared to the five year average number of sales across the region, current transaction levels are 21.5% higher, and compared to the same period in 212, volumes are 21.8% higher. Perth rental rates have shown the second largest 12 month increase across the capital city markets after Darwin. Rental rates for houses are currently $58/week which is 4.6% higher than the same time last year, while for units, rental rates have risen by 4.8% to $449/week. The gross rental yield for Perth houses has fallen over the year from 4.5% to 4.4%, while for units the rental yield has remained unchanged at 4.8%. 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-1 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-1 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Adelaide home values Jul-98 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 Rolling annual number of Adelaide house and unit sales 1, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, Jul-98 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 8, 6, 4, 2, Perth home values Rolling annual number of Perth house and unit sales 8, 6, 4, 2, 4

5 Hobart Dwelling values across Hobart fell by -3.% over the September quarter based on the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. Similarly, over the past year, home values are -2.9% lower, however, the performance has been varied based on the type of stock that is analysed. For houses, home values fell by -3.7% over the September quarter, while for units, over the three months, values appreciated by 4.8%. Currently, dwelling values across Hobart are -13.2% below their historic high, indicating ongoing weakness across the market. While home values have been decreasing, the number of sales recorded across the city has shown some improvement. It is estimated that over the 12 months to July 213 there were 3,927 Hobart homes sold, which is 9.3% higher than over the 12 months to July 213, and 21.7% higher than over the same three month period one year ago. While this improvement in sales volumes is welcomed, sales volumes continue to track under the five year average. Over the past year, rental rates across Hobart have remained relatively unchanged, with rental rates up.7% for houses and.4% for units. The median rental rate for Hobart houses is currently recorded at $329/week and the gross rental yield has increased from 5.2% one year ago to 5.4% currently. For units, rental rates are recorded at $276/week and the gross rental yield has improved from 4.5% to 5.% over the year. 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Hobart home values -1.% Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-1 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 Rolling annual number of Hobart house and unit sales Jul-98 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Darwin Over the three months ending September 213, Darwin home values remained virtually unchanged, with a.1% increase recorded based on the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. While values have been subdued over the most recent quarter, on a yearly basis, home values across the city have increased by 2.2%. For houses values increased by.4% over the three months to September, compared to a -1.3% fall in home values for units and so far this year Darwin s detached housing market has generally outperformed the unit market. 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% Darwin home values RP Data estimates that there were 3,281 homes sold across Darwin over the 12 months to July 213. The number of Darwin sales is currently over performing when compared to the five year average and is 18.2% higher than sales volumes over the year to July 212. Since late 21, the rolling annual number of Darwin home sales has mostly been increasing. Median rental rates have increased by 7.5% for houses and 5.4% for units across Darwin over the 12 months to July. This is the strongest rental growth recorded across each of the capital city markets. Darwin house rents are currently the most expensive across the capital cities, at $63/week, while a typical Darwin unit is rented for $495/week. Currently, the rental yield for Darwin houses is recorded at 6.3%, compared to 6.% one year ago and for units, gross rental yields have increased from 6.% to 6.4%. Darwin rental properties offer the greatest return on investment across the capital city markets. 5-2.% Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Rolling annual number of Darwin house and unit sales -2 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 1,4 1,2 1,

6 Canberra According to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, over the recent quarter, home values across Canberra have risen by 2.6%. Both the detached house and unit markets have recorded quarterly growth with house values rising 2.7% over the three months ending September and unit values up by 1.8%. As of September 213, Canberra dwelling values were 3.7% higher than they were one year prior and in August this year, Canberra dwelling values peaked and current values are.5% higher than their mid-21 peak. RP Data estimates that over the year to July 213 there were 8,36 house and unit sales in Canberra. Sales activity over the most recent year was 9.1% higher than over the year prior, however, when compared to the five year average volume of sales, current sales activity is -8.4% lower. Over the three months to July 213, sales volumes were 34.1% higher than sales volumes over the three months to July 212. The rental performance across the Canberra market has been varied over the past year. While rental rates for houses have increased by 1.% over the past 12 months to $522/week, for units, rental rates are currently -3.6% lower than they were one year ago at $426/week. Gross rental yields for both houses and units have decreased over the year. The current yield for a Canberra house is recorded at 4.4%, compared to 4.5% last year, while for units, the current yield is 5.3% compared to 5.5% 12 months prior. 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-1 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Canberra home values Rolling annual number of Canberra house and unit sales Jul-98 Jul-1 Jul-4 Jul-7 Jul-1 Jul-13 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 6

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