2016 Texas Economic Outlook: Riding the Energy Roller Coaster January 12, 2016
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1 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of DALLAS SAN ANTONIO BRANCH 216 Texas Economic Outlook: Riding the Energy Roller Coaster January 12, 216 Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.
2 National Economy Slowed Slightly in 215 Job growth slowed from 2.3% in 214 to 1.9% in 215, while RGDP growth likely slowed from 2.5% to 2.1%. Manufacturing sector hit by global weakness and strong dollar. Health care sector picked up with greater insurance coverage. Retail and leisure and hospitality remained healthy, but positive impact of lower energy prices smaller than expected. RGDP expected to pick up slightly in 216.
3 215 Consumer Spending Weaker Than Expected Percent Y/Y Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Real Retail Sales '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '1 '3 '5 '7 '9 '11 '13 '15 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
4 U.S. Households Reduced Debt Ratio, personal debt per capita/personal income per capita Student loan Other 9.7% 2.9% U.S. Credit card 5.9% Auto loan 8.7% HE revolving 4.1% Mortgage 68.7% Texas (Q3).95 (Q3) Note: Data are through third quarter 215, except where noted. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Student loan 1.7% Credit card 7.% HE revolving.9% Auto loan 15.6% U.S. Other Texas 4.4% Mortgage 61.4%
5 Average Job Growth of 221K per Month in 215 After 26K in 214 (1.9% vs 2.3%) Thousands,SA Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6 Percent change, annualized 2 U.S. Leading Index Suggesting Healthy Growth in Months Ahead month 12-month Note: Shaded areas represent U.S. recessions. Source: Conference Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
7 January Blue Chip Survey Projects 2.1% RGDP Growth in 215 and 2.6% in 216 SAAR, Percent % Q4/Q % Q4/Q % Q4/Q % Q4/Q Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators
8 Texas Economy Weakened Sharply in 215 but Continued to Add Jobs In five years prior to 215, growth in energy, construction and exports provided a strong stimulus to Texas. In 215, low oil prices, strong dollar and labor market tightness reduced job growth. Health care and leisure and hospitality remained strong offsetting some of the weakness in energy and manufacturing. In 215, jobs grew about 1.3% (15,5 jobs), a drop from 3.6% in 214. In 216, if oil prices remain near $4 - $5, growth will be around 1.4% (161,2 jobs).
9 Texas Economic Growth Below Trend but Positive (Texas Business Cycle Index) Percent, M/M SAAR % trend Note: Shaded areas represent Texas recessions Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10 Texas Ranked Third in Job Growth in 214, Growth in Energy States Varied Widely Percent Change, Dec Dec TX U.S ND FL TX GA UT NV OR CO WA CA NC SC AR AZ TN US DE ID KY MA LA WY MI WI OK NY AL NMMD CT IN IA KS OH NH MN RI PA IL DC VT AK VA SD MO NJ NE MS MT ME HI WV Note: Black bars represent large energy-producing states. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 Texas Ranked 32 nd in Job Growth in 215, but Above Most Energy States Annualized Percent Change, Dec Nov U.S. TX ID UT FL WA OR SC CA SD NV AZ HI MA GA MD NC KY IN NY IA US RI VT MI CO NE NJ TN VA ME DE CT OH TX DC AL MN WI MO AR MS NM PA MT NH IL KS OK AK LA WY WV ND Note: Black bars represent large energy-producing states. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 215 Texas Job Growth Less Than the Nation s Percent, Job Growth Y/Y 5 U.S. 4 Texas Note: 215 data annualized through November. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
13 Job Growth Has Been Broad-Based Across Large Texas Metro Areas Nonfarm Employment Index Aug. 28= Austin San Antonio Dallas Houston TX Ft. Worth El Paso Corpus Christi U.S.* *Indexed from U.S. Peak Employment in January 28 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
14 Texas Unemployment Rate Still Below Nation s but Rising Percent, SA US unemployment rate Texas unemployment rate 4.6 (Nov.) 5. (Nov.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15 Energy & Manufacturing Weakened Sharply in 215 Dec/Dec Percent Change 2 (Job Growth ) 15 Oil & Gas 1 5 Construction Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Manufacturing Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Services Health & Education Government Share of Total Employment -2 (2.1%) (5.8%) (2.2%) (7.3%) (13.5%) (6.%) (1.5%) (1.7%) (13.5%) (15.6%) Note: Striped bars represent Dec Nov. 215 annualized change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
16 Texas Construction Contracts Strong in 215 Real $, Mil 5MMA, SA Total Residential 3 Non Residential 2 1 Non Building Sources: F.W. Dodge, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
17 Texas Home Inventories Remain Near Historically Low Levels Months Texas U.S Nov Source: Multiple Listing Service
18 Texas Office Markets Remain Healthy Real, Millions $, 5MMA Office Vacancy Rate Office and Bank Buildings Contract Values Percent % '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Note: Shaded areas represent Texas recessions Sources: F.W. Dodge, CBRE, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 5
19 Texas Manufacturing Indicators Mixed Index Dec Production Volume of New Orders Company Outlook -1 Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
20 Texas Exports Have Weakened as Value of the Dollar Continues to Rise Index, SA, Real Jan. 2=1 26 Index Jan. 1988= Texas Value of the Dollar Texas U.S. minus Texas Source: U.S. Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, WISERtrade, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 65.
21 Drilling Rig Count Continues to Fall Amidst Renewed Plunge in Energy Prices Number 1 Rig Count Nominal $ Oil price 4 3 Gas price(*1) Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Baker Hughes.
22 El Paso (3.5%) Brownsville-Harlingen (1.3%) Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood (2%) Texarkana (-.2%) Waco (-.5%) Lubbock (1.3%) Austin-Round Rock (4.2%) Sherman-Denison (-.2%) Amarillo (-.4%) San Antonio (3.6%) Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (3.%) (3%) Beaumont-Port Arthur (.5%) McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (2%) College Station-Bryan (5.8%) Tyler (-.2%) Abilene (.6%) Laredo (2.4%) Wichita Falls (%) San Angelo (-.4%) Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land (.1%) Corpus Christi (.9%) Longview (-5.1%) Odessa (-2.6%) Midland (-2.1%) Which Metros Performed the Best in 215? Size of Energy Sector Explains a Lot Mining sector share of total employment Note: Data in parentheses are annualized job growth, Dec Nov Mining share data as of 214. Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Correlation: -.52
23 Share of Manufacturing Also Accounts for Some Differences in Job Growth Laredo (2.4%) McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (2%) Lubbock (1.3%) Texarkana (-.2%) Brownsville-Harlingen (1.3%) Abilene (.6%) Midland (-2.1%) San Antonio (3.6%) Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood (2%) College Station-Bryan (5.8%) Tyler (-.2%) El Paso (3.5%) Austin-Round Rock (4.2%) San Angelo (-.4%) Corpus Christi (.9%) Dallas-Plano-Irving (4.1%) Odessa (-2.6%) Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land (.1%) Wichita Falls (%) Longview (-5.1%) Fort Worth-Arlington (.2%) Amarillo (-.4%) Sherman-Denison (-.2%) Waco (-.5%) Beaumont-Port Arthur (.5%) Correlation: Manufacturing sector share of total employment Note: Data in parentheses are annualized job growth, Dec Nov Manufacturing share data as of 214. Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
24 Return on Assets, Percent th District Banks Remain More Profitable Than U.S. Banks 11th District U.S * *Annual data, 215 data are annualized through Q3
25 But Noncurrent Loans Have Ticked Up Regionally Percent of Total Loans U.S Other Consumer C&I Commercial RE Residential RE 11 th District *Annual data, 215 data are annualized through Q3
26 Leading Index Components Mixed Net contributions to Change in the Texas Leading Index September-November.26 Net Change in Texas Leading Index -.21 Texas Value of the Dollar.31 U.S. Leading Index -.1 Real Oil Price Well Permits New Unemployment Claims.27 Texas Stock Index.17 Help Wanted Index -.8 Average Weekly Hours NOTE: Seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
27 Texas Job Growth Likely to Be Between 1.% 2.% in 216, Similar to 215 Millions, seasonally adjusted Leading Index Index, 1987= Texas nonfarm employment and forecast (with 8% confidence band) ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
28 San Antonio Economy Grew Strongly in job growth at 3.6% so far same pace as 214. Health care and construction growth remained robust. Financial activities, business services also strong. % Growth Dec./Dec Total nonfarm jobs Construction Health Care Manufacturing, mining, federal government weak last year. Declines in Eagle Ford had little net negative impact. 2-2 Federal Government * *Annualized through Nov. 215
29 Eagle Ford Jobs Declining Index, 27:Q1 = 1* Eagle Ford counties 115 Permian Basin counties 11 Rest of Texas '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 *Quarterly, seasonally adjusted. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
30 Summary Texas weakened in the first half of 215, but outlook improved as oil prices stabilized near $6 recent fall below $45 has weakened the outlook. Texas doing much better than 198s and better than other energy states. Tight real estate markets and continued growth in sectors such as health care and leisure and hospitality are helping sustain positive job growth. 216 Texas job growth likely to be about 1.4% (161,2 jobs). Biggest risk to the forecast is declining oil prices. If average oil prices fall to $2 $3, then negative job growth likely.
31 How Did My Forecast From Last Year Do? Last year stated: Texas likely to continue to grow, but not nearly as strong as previous year. Forecast was not weak enough
32 Last Year s Job Growth Rate Weaker Than Forecast (1.3% vs. Forecast of 2.% 2.5%) Millions of Jobs 12.5 Index (1987=1) Leading Index Texas Nonfarm Employment, actual growth, and TLI Forecast (with 8% confidence band) Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, author's calculations 95
33 Texas Business Outlook Surveys
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