Small Business Credit Outlook

Transcription

1 2014 Q4 Small Business Credit Outlook The Growth Engine in 2015 Stock market volatility and GDP growth slowing to 2.6% lead many to believe the economy is stumbling. This problem can be attributed to a strong dollar, low oil prices and slow foreign markets. So the focus is on Fortune 500 companies that produce oil and export to Europe and other overseas markets. But the fact is there are another 25 million Private U.S. Companies. They make up a market of about 50% of GDP or an economy bigger than United Kingdom, France, and Germany combined. So as global markets slow and the price of oil falls, these companies will be the big growth driver for 2015.

2 Business Cycle The Expansionary, Low Risk phase of the business cycle remains intact. As we can see in the Business Cycle chart, investment grew slightly in the 3rd and 4th quarters of This growth does not exactly reflect the large jumps we associate with a booming economy. However, a steady advance in investments is not necessarily bad, and it does not signal a change in the cycle as it exhibits sustained growth. This Expansionary, Low Risk phase differs from the last cycle. The investment increases are smaller we see slight growth in the 1% range for each of the 3rd and 4th quarters. Credit risk remains lower we see loans 90 days or more past due at 0.30%. Credit risk has remained at a low risk phase for 7 quarters. The bottom line low expansion and low risk mean small businesses are taking fewer chances and this expansion can endure for a longer period. PayNet Small Business Cycle 130 1Q07 1Q06 4Q CONTRACTION EXPANSION 1Q14 SBLI Originations Index Q10 1Q09 RECESSION 1Q08 1Q05 1Q11 RECOVERY 1Q12 1Q % 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0% SBDI Day Delinquency Index

3 Recent Investment Activity While the rate of investment activity is slowing, Q4 delivered a new record for small business credit. The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) reached 132, surpassing the previous all-time high of reached in January The streak of year over year increases in lending activity continued with expansion in each month of Business borrowing signals investment to build more products. PayNet s new Small Business Lending Index by Industry and State shows consumers driving this investment. Demand from consumers and businesses remains a good sign of healthy economic expansion with the following segments providing the largest expansion during the past 12 months: Transportation & Warehousing +27% Accommodations & Food +15% Construction +11% Retail +9% Truckers are moving more goods. People are traveling and going out to dinner more. A home builder CEO told us that pent up demand exists for home remodeling. When the U.S. consumer is spending money, the U.S. economy is on a roll. Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) (January December 2014) Index Value

4 The largest states show healthy gains in investment by small businesses. FL, TX and CA lead double-digit growth mainly as a result of transportation and construction companies borrowing to expand capacity. STATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN SBLI Florida 17% Texas 12% California 11% North Carolina 9% Michigan 8% Georgia 8% Pennsylvania 8% New York 7% Illinois 6% Ohio 1% Large segments of the economy retain room to grow. Relative to current levels of investment, the Real Estate, Construction, Retail, and Manufacturing segments could increase 58%, 55%, 30%, and 29% respectively to match their previous high points. 120 Current Month SBLI Max SBLI Room to Grow Now 2006 Now 2006 Now 2007 Now 2007 Real Estate Construction Retail Manufacturing

5 Credit Risk Confidence in this expansion phase of the business cycle is supported by the strong financial health of small businesses. Loans 30 days or more past due actually improved slightly in December In a surprise, we saw delinquencies fall by 1 basis point to 1.24% compared to November. Businesses are maintaining strong balance sheets probably to avoid the carnage from the Great Recession. Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) (31-90 Days Past Due) (January December 2014) 4% 3.5% 3% 2.5% Index Value 2% 1.5% 1% 0.5% 0%

6 Regional Credit Risk Loan delinquencies in North Dakota, Texas, and Pennsylvania have risen much higher than the national average with the data showing North Dakota +0.30%, Texas %, and Pennsylvania +0.15%. This compares against 0.07% for the entire U.S. The impact of lower oil prices is clearly translating into higher financial stress in the General and Construction segments of these state economies. Florida and Georgia remain well above the national average of 1.24%. The Midwest still reigns as the region with the lowest loan delinquencies in the country while the Southeast continues to exhibit the highest delinquencies. We see in the data that Florida and Georgia delinquencies are at 1.68% and 1.54% respectively. Even with both showing improvements, PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index by State (31-90 Day) WA ME CA OR NV ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE DC MD AZ NM OK AR MS TN AL GA NC SC AK TX LA FL HI < 0.50% % % =1.50%

7 Credit Risk Forecast The retired CEO of a major financial institution offered observations of the new marketplace lending. His view is that it is easy to give money out, the hard part is collecting it. A chronicle of subprime lending reminds us of the importance of sound credit risk assessment and management. The chart below presents default rates of small business borrowers across the credit spectrum of prime to sub-prime. businesses. At some point, defaults will rise to more normal levels with the resultant higher credit costs reflected in the form of provisions for credit losses on lender P&L statements. Clearly we see that any more reserve release is probably not warranted and that rising provisions for credit losses will be the norm for now. We are currently developing a report of default rates by credit strata to show lenders and the public the actual default rates by borrower quality. In the meantime, the chart below shows credit risk remains below the normal rates of default. At 1.4%, 2014 credit risk stands at the all-time low for small HISTORICAL AND ABSOLUTEPD FORECAST DEFAULT RATES INDUSTRY SEGMENT HISTORICAL DEFAULT RATES ABSOLUTEPD FORECAST DEFAULT RATES Retail 3.0% 3.4% 4.6% 6.5% 4.9% 3.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% Health Care 2.2% 4.1% 3.6% 3.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% Transportation 2.9% 5.4% 7.8% 9.3% 5.8% 3.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% General 2.3% 3.5% 3.7% 5.0% 3.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% Construction 2.3% 3.6% 5.5% 8.8% 6.7% 3.2% 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% Agriculture 2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% ALL INDUSTRIES 2.5% 3.8% 4.7% 6.2% 4.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% For Borrowers with an Exposure Less than $2.5mm

8 Summary Business conditions look favorable for small business credit in 2015, and we see this significant part of the economy helping to carry the economic load as overseas markets slow. The business cycle remains in expansion mode at low risk. Lending activity and the commensurate business investment has slowed somewhat, but remains at a healthy pace. Financial health is excellent with loan delinquencies falling slightly. The financial stress emerging in oil-rich North Dakota, Texas, and Pennsylvania is offset by broader national investment into the consumer driven segments of Accommodation & Food, Retail, Construction, and Transportation & Warehousing. As a result of these conditions, we forecast credit risk to increase slightly in 2015 and With more investment will come more defaults, but they will remain at relatively low levels compared to historical averages. About PayNet, Inc. PayNet is the leading provider of credit ratings on small businesses enabling lenders to achieve optimal risk management, growth, and operational efficiencies. PayNet maintains the largest proprietary database of small business loans, leases, and lines of credit encompassing over 23 Million contracts worth more than $1.3 Trillion. Using state-of-the-art analytics, PayNet converts raw data into real-time marketing intelligence and predictive information that subscribing lenders use to make informed small business financial decisions and improve their business strategy. PayNet s small business capabilities range from historic credit-reporting and automated credit-scoring to detailed strategic business reviews that include portfolio risk measurement, default forecasting, peer benchmarking, and critical industry trend analysis. PayNet Contact Information PayNet, Inc Old Orchard Rd., Suite 250 Skokie, IL William Phelan President bphelan@paynetonline.com PayNet Risk Insight Suite PayNet, PayNet AbsolutePD, and PayNet Risk Insight Suite are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc PayNet, Inc. Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending For more information please call (866) or visit sbinsights.net