Demography of Population Ageing in South East Asia

Transcription

1 Plenary Paper 1, Ballroom, South East Asian Conference on Ageing (SEACA2010), July 2010, Grand Millennium Hotel Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Demography of Population Ageing in South East Asia Past, Present and Future Trends A. P. Dr. Tengku Aizan Hamid Institute of Gerontology, UPM

2 Demography of Population Ageing in South East Asia: Past, Present and Future Trends CONTENT Demographic Determinants o Fertility, Mortality & Life Expectancy o Median Age, Age-Sex Structure o Dependency Ratios & Other Indicators Demographic Transition Facts and Figures: What does it all mean? The Malaysian Situation Challenges and Opportunities Conclusion

3 Population Ageing Population ageing is unprecedented, Population ageing is pervasive, Population ageing is profound, Population ageing is enduring. - UNDESA (2002) World Population Ageing,

4 Global Population Ageing Average life expectancy at birth has increased by 20 years since Fast growth of the population in the first half of the 21st century mean that the number of persons over 60 will increase from about 600 million in 2000 to almost 2 billion in Percentage 60 years and over Source: Long-Range World Population Projection: Based on the 1998 Revision. The Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN Secretariat

5 Percent (%) 100 Human Survival Curve Limit Source: Cai, J. G. (2004) Age Rectangularization or Extension?

6 Years to double from 7% to 14% Speed of Aging 115 France Sweden Switzerland Germany USA China Malaysia Japan South Korea Singapore Years Malaysia will be an aged nation in the year 2030 when 15% of the total population is aged 60 years or over. Sources: (1) United Nations The Aging of Population and its Economic and Social Implication Population Studies No.26, New York, 1956 (Before 1940); (2) United Nations World Population Prospects 1990 Population Studies No. 120, New York, 1991 (After 1940), Tengku Aizan et al 2005

7 Singapore Malaysia Colombia Costa Rica Indonesia Philipines Mexico South Korea Egypt Bangladesh Peru Thailand Sri Langka India China Canada Australia Rate of Ageing Percent (%) Increase in the Elderly Population 65+, Source: United States Census International Data, 2001

8 Fertility Basic Demographic Processes Crude Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate Age-specific Fertility Rate Mortality Crude Mortality Rate Age-specific Mortality Rate Migration Internal, Local External, International

9 Demographic Transition Demographic transition occurs when there is a change in the population dynamics from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. 4 Stages of transitions: Stage 1, both birth and death rates are high, population growth slow Stage 2, death decline but birth rates high, population growth faster Stage 3, birth rates decline, death rates stabilizes, population growth slow Stage 4, birth and death rates more or less balance, slow growth, maybe no growth Gradual change or rapid change?

10 A change in the population dynamics from high fertility and mortality rates to low fertility and mortality rates. Demographic Transition

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12 Total Fertility Rate (Children per Woman) Total Fertility Rate Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Year

13 Mortality Year Crude Death Rate (Deaths per 1000 Population) Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

14 Life Expectancy at Birth Year Life Expectancy at Birth Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

15 Indicators of Population Ageing Age and Sex Structure Median Age Ageing Index Dependency Ratios

16 Older Population by Continent million 2.01 billion % 1% 7% 6% 1% 11% 8% 9% 12% 21% 54% 61% A f ric a A s ia Europe Latin A meric a & the Carribean Northern A meric a O c eania Africa Asia Europe Latin America & the Carribean Northern America Oceania

17 Older Population in South East Asia - Population ageing is a global phenomenon - There are more older persons in developing countries although the more developed regions are relatively older.

18 Percent (%) South East Asia, Age Structure, Year

19 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Number (in Thousands) Size of Older Population Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Year 0 Country

20 Proportion of Older Population (60+) (Percent, %) Proportion of Older Population Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Year

21 Median Age Median Age Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Year

22 Ageing Index (65+/<15*100) Ageing Index Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Year

23 Old Age Dependency Ratio Old Age Dependency Ratio Brunei Cambodia 50 Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar 40 Philippines Singapore Thailand 30 Vietnam Year

24 D e p e n d e n c y R a tio s Dependency Ratios, Laos PDR, T o ta l C h ild O ld -a g e Y e a r

25 Dependency Ratios Dependency Ratios, Malaysia, Total 100 Child Old-age Year

26 D e p e n d e n c y R a tio s Dependency Ratios, Singapore, T o ta l C h ild O ld -a g e Y e a r

27 D e p e n d e n c y R a tio s Dependency Ratios, Thailand, T o ta l C h ild O ld -a g e Y e a r

28 Fact and Figures Population ageing is a fact and it is here to stay. The South-east Asian region alone will register a 435% rise in its older population from 39.5 million to million. A majority of the elderly will come from developing countries. The transition will have a demographic window where the proportion of the adult, working age population remains high. Once this has passed, the proportion of the older population will overtake that of the younger population.

29 Opportunities & Challenges Take advantage of demographic window Meeting the needs and demands of an ageing population while maintaining strong economic growth More can be done in areas of:- Finance security Integration of health and social care Relationship of informal and formal care Supplement Complement Gender perspective Double jeopardy, old and women Supply of services Government driven, need to change Community based care Research sharing

30 Older Persons Have different backgrounds (education, income, social status etc.) Dissimilar life experiences Different environment Different ethnic / Culture Different needs, wants and expectations

31 MAJOR AREAS OF CONCERN Addressing Gaps and Critical Issues Health, Healthcare and Long-term Care Employment, Pensions and Social Security Intergenerational Relationships Poverty Housing Abuse, Neglect and Maltreatment Laws and Ageing Others - Older Consumers - Older Drivers - Retirement community - Estate planning - Will, trusts & bequest - Power of attorney - Dispute resolutions - Many more

32 Addressing the Challenges As indicated in the demographic data, the number and proportion of the elderly is increasing. The aged should not be neglected and marginalized in a country s rapid development and modernization. In order to address the problems of senior citizens, involvement from the family, civil society and the state is rather crucial. Understanding the role of each unit is vital to ensure each problem is addressed appropriately. At the end of the day, a society for all ages can be a reality.

33 The demographic changes faced by the countries (lower fertility, mortality and increase in life expectancy) brought about by rapid urbanization, modernization and industrialization have resulted in the rise of new generations. Malaysians in general has thought of population ageing as an indicator of progress or a sign of national success. The government retains a minimalist, welfare-oriented approach to the situation of the aged, where the responsibility of care was placed firmly on the family (Tengku-Aizan & Nurizan, 2008; Ong 2002). With smaller family units, dual income households and increasing geographical mobility, the older persons need meaningful choices or alternatives.

34 Older persons face dynamic problems In order to solve these problems, we must come out with strategic and dynamic plans, as different solutions are needed in different times to cater the need of the elderly both in the present and the future. It is a challenge that cannot be addressed by the public or private sector in isolation; it requires joint approaches and strategies It is through the partnership between the government, society and family that the well being of the older person could be achieved and sustained.

35 Conclusion Preparations should be well underway for the ageing societies. There has to be political will to optimize limited resources and plan ahead, by leveraging the outcome through strategic alliances and partnerships. There is an often repeated saying that the true measure of a civilisation is how they treat their weakest members.

36 THANK YOU. TERIMA KASIH