Carbon Emission Reduction Strategy & Electrification: EPRI s Role

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1 Carbon Emission Reduction Strategy & Electrification: EPRI s Role Francisco de la Chesnaye Technical Executive John Bistline Project Manager Decarbonization Expert Panel IEA, Paris September 215

2 Today s Topics U.S. Greenhouse Gas Regulations Electric Sector s Role in Economy-wide Emission Reduction and Electrification 2

3 EPA s Updated Schedule 3

4 EPA s FINAL Proposal Will Have Varying State Impacts OR 29% CA 5% WA 65% NV 68% % 1% - 25% 26% - 5% > 5% ID -9% UT 5% CO 19% AZ -1% MT 9% % CO 2 Reductions by State in 23 (from 25) WY 4% NM 35% ND 45% SD 53% NE -37% KS 7% TX 33% MN 22% WI 38% NY 59% MI 48% IA 39% PA 42% OH 3% IL 54% NJ 36% IN 33% MD 6% WV 15% DE 71% VA 54% MO 14% KY 46% OK 46% AR 12% LA 54% TN 38% MS 16% GA 42% AL 5% SC 24% FL 22% NC 57% Wide range in variation, but reduced from variation in Proposed Rule VT ME 34% NH 46% MA 65% RI 26% CT 46% Source: EPA Rate_Based IPM Results, EIA 4

5 CPP Carbon Reduction is more than the Clean Power Plan 5

6 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Pledge, 8% by 25 Target and the CPP 7 6 CH4, N2, and F-gases Net GHG (incl sinks) Billion tons CO 2 eq Economy 28% target Non-ELECTRIC SECTOR CO 2 Economy 8% target 1 Clean Power Plan 32% target ELECTRIC SECTOR CO 2 nominal Electric Sector 8% target Source: US-REGEN data; Energy Modeling Forum 24 6

7 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Energy Efficiency and Electrification 7 6 CH4, N2, and F-gases Net GHG (incl sinks) Billion tons CO 2 eq Economy 28% target Non-ELECTRIC SECTOR CO 2 OTHER SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY MUST REDUCE Economy 8% target 1 ELECTRIC SECTOR CO Electric Sector Source: US-REGEN data; Energy Modeling Forum 24 7

8 Opportunities for Carbon Reductions Key Categories from the EPA GHG Inventory by Economic Sector (TgCO 2 e or MTCO 2 e) in 211 CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Coal - Electricity Generation CO2 Emissions from Mobile Combustion: Road CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Industrial CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Electricity Generation CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Oil - Industrial CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Residential CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Commercial CO2 Emissions from Mobile Combustion: Aviation CH4 Fugitive Emissions from Natural Gas Systems CO2 Emissions from Non-Energy Use of Fuels HiGWP Emissions from Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances CH4 Emissions from Landfills CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Coal - Industrial CO2 Emissions from Mobile Combustion: Other CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Oil - Residential CO2 Emissions from Iron and Steel Production & Metallurgical Coke Production CH4 Fugitive Emissions from Coal Mining 86% Key Categories as share of total emissions Sectors already targeted by CAA regulations , 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:

9 Key Research Questions Objective: Examine policy alternatives to the current piecemeal regulatory approach in the US Assess pathways and the role of the power sector in meeting nearand long-term emissions reduction goals 225 INDC and 25 Climate Action Plan targets How might technological improvements and availability influence cost, emissions, and electrification outcomes? Understand drivers of electrification under different policy, market, and technology settings Which policy features are the most important drivers? Which sectors exhibit the greatest electrification potential? Prioritize future model development and structure sensitivities 9

10 E&EA Reference Comparison (with and without NSPS) 11

11 Electricity generation by technology preliminary 7, Reference Reference with NSPS TWh 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Solar Geothermal Biomass Wind Hydro+ Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing) Gas w/ccs Gas New Coal w/ccs New Coal CCS Retrofit Environmental Retrofit Existing Coal Scenario Load

12 Economy-Wide 8% Cap Results 13

13 Economy-wide emissions (reference) US-REGEN model results 1 9 preliminary Economy-wide targets (relative to 25 levels) Net emissions with land sink Gross emissions Economy-Wide GHG Emissions (GtCO 2 eq/yr) % 8% LLF SLF N₂O CH₄ CO₂ Sink Net

14 Economy-wide emissions with 8% cap All sectors, all GHGs (with banking and borrowing) 1 preliminary Economy-Wide GHG Emissions (GtCO 2 eq/yr) Banking 225 abatement (~42%) exceeds INDC pledge to bank reductions, which avoids costly abatement in later decades LLF SLF N₂O CH₄ CO₂ Sink Net

15 GHG emissions by sector (reference) preliminary GHG Emissions (GtCO 2 eq/yr) Non-CO₂ Electric Industrial Commercial Residential Midstream Other Transport Light-Duty Vehicles

16 GHG emissions by sector (8% all GHG cap) All sectors, all GHGs (with banking and borrowing) preliminary GHG Emissions (GtCO 2 eq/yr) Significant and early abatement in the power sector and CH 4, but more limited changes in other sectors Non-CO₂ Electric Industrial Commercial Residential Midstream Other Transport Light-Duty Vehicles 17

17 U.S. Energy Emissions Transformation: 25 Reference 4.7 EJ PRELIMINARY DATA 2.2 BT U.S. Energy and Emissions in 25 Petroleum Transportation 26.4 EJ 82. EJ 4.5 BT.1 BT 1.3 BT Natural Industrial Gas US-REGEN Reference AEO fuel prices thru 24 RPS targets a/o 215 CPP not included Coal 14.9 EJ 5.6 EJ Other Energy Other Energy.5 BT.3 BT 1.1 BT Commercial 2.1 EJ 38.9 EJ 2.6 BT.3 BT Midstream. BT Low Carbon 13.2 EJ Electricity Generation Electricity.4 BT Residential.9 BT 18

18 U.S. Energy Emissions Transformation: 25 8% CO 2 Reduction Target U.S. Energy and Emissions in 25 Petroleum 13.8 EJ PRELIMINARY DATA.6 BT Transportation.1 BT 19. EJ 1.2 BT.4 BT Natural 2.8 EJ Industrial 8% reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions (from 25) No banking or borrowing Other Energy shift to Electricity which is more efficient Gas Coal.1 EJ 2.4 EJ. EJ Other Energy Other Energy. BT. BT.2 BT Commercial Accelerated improvement of economy-wide energy intensity 32.6 EJ.3 BT.1 BT. BT Midstream Price induced energy conservation 32.6 EJ Electricity Generation Electricity Low Carbon.1 BT.1 BT Residential 19

19 Electrification Reduces Future GHG Emissions Reference 8% GHG Mitigation (No Banking) 1% 9 1% 9 9% 8 9% 8 Final Energy (%) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Net GHG Emissions (GtCO 2 eq/yr) Final Energy (%) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Net GHG Emissions (GtCO 2 eq/yr) 1% 1 1% 1 % % Electricity All Other GHG Electricity All Other GHG 2

20 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 21

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