Continuous time meanvariance portfolio optimization through the mean field approach


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1 Continuous time meanvariance portfolio optimization through the mean field approach Markus Fischer Giulia Livieri January 3, 214; revised April 2, 215 Abstract A simple meanvariance portfolio optimization problem in continuous time is solved using the mean field approach. In this approach, the original optimal control problem, which is time inconsistent, is viewed as the McKeanVlasov limit of a family of controlled manycomponent weakly interacting systems. The prelimit problems are solved by dynamic programming, and the solution to the original problem is obtained by passage to the limit. 21 AMS subect classifications: 91G1, 49L2; 82C22, 6H1. Key words and phrases: Portfolio optimization, meanvariance criterion, optimal control, time inconsistency, dynamic programming, McKeanVlasov limit, law of large numbers. 1 Introduction In this paper, we study and solve a meanvariance portfolio optimization problem in continuous time using the mean field approach introduced in the context of discrete time meanvariance problems by Ankirchner and Dermoune [211]. Department of Mathematics, University of Padua, via Trieste 63, Padova, Italy. Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, Piazza dei Cavalieri 7, Pisa, Italy. 1
2 The problem of meanvariance portfolio optimization goes back, at least, to Markowitz [1952], who considered a single period one time step model. The model allows investors to be risk averse. Investment decisions are therefore made following two different obectives: to maximize expected return and to minimize financial risk. The two conflicting obectives can be combined; decisions are made so as to maximize a difference between expectation and variance of the random quantity representing wealth at terminal time. In a multiperiod framework discrete or continuous time models, this kind of optimization problem is time inconsistent in the sense that an investment strategy that is optimal over the entire time interval need not be optimal over subintervals. As a consequence, Bellman s Principle of Dynamic Programming does not hold for the underlying control problem. Various approaches to multiperiod meanvariance portfolio optimization have been explored; here, we mention four different approaches from the mathematically oriented literature. The first approach, due to Li and Ng [2] in a discrete time setting, works by embedding the time inconsistent meanvariance optimization problem into a oneparameter family of standard timeconsistent optimal control problems. By solving these problems for each value of the parameter and then choosing the right parameter value according to a compatibility constraint, one can solve the original problem. This technique is extended to continuous time models in Zhou and Li [2]. A different approach is based on a game theoretic interpretation of time inconsistent optimal control problems. Time inconsistency is interpreted in terms of changes in agents preferences, and an optimal control problem is viewed as a game where the players are the future incarnations of their own preferences. Solutions of the optimization problem are then defined in terms of subgame perfect Nash equilibria; see Börk and Murgoci [21] and the references therein. The framework is used in Börk et al. [214] to solve a continuous time meanvariance portfolio optimization problems with riskaversion parameter that may depend on current wealth. A third approach starts from the observation that dynamic meanvariance optimization problems can be seen as stochastic optimal control problems of McKeanVlasov or mean field type [for instance Carmona et al., 213]. For this class of control problems, the coefficients of the costs and dynamics may depend on the law of the controlled state process. As a consequence, 2
3 the cost functional may be nonlinear with respect to the oint law of the state and control process. In the context of meanvariance optimization, the coefficients of the controlled dynamics have standard form, while the cost or gain functional is a quadratic polynomial of the expected value of the state process; it is therefore nonlinear as a functional of the law of the state process. The connection between meanvariance optimization and control of McKeanVlasov type has been exploited in Andersson and Dehiche [211]. There, the authors derive a version of the stochastic Pontryagin maximum principle for continuous time optimal control problems of McKeanVlasov type. The maximum principle is then used to obtain the optimal control for the meanvariance problem solved in Zhou and Li [2]. The Pontryagin maximum principle for control problems of McKeanVlasov type has also been studied in Buckdahn et al. [211], where a necessary condition for optimality is derived provided that the nonlinear dependence on the law of the state process can be expressed through a function of its expected value; in Carmona and Delarue [213], the authors establish a necessary as well as a sufficient condition for optimality for systems with general dependence on the law of the state process, using a particular notion of differentiability for functions defined on a space of probability measures. The work by Ankirchner and Dermoune [211], who treat the meanvariance portfolio optimization problem in discrete time, also builds on the connection with McKeanVlasov control. Those authors, in order to circumvent the difficulties arising from time inconsistency, interpret the original control problem as the McKeanVlasov limit of a family of controlled weakly interacting systems where interaction through the empirical measure appears only in the gain functional, while each component market clone follows the same dynamics as that of the original controlled system. The approximate Kcomponent control problem has the portfolio mean and portfolio variance replaced with their empirical counterparts, and dynamic programming can be used to determine the value function and optimal strategy. The original optimization problem is then solved by letting the number of components K tend to infinity. The asymptotic connection between systems with measuredependent coefficients and manycomponent or manyparticle weakly interacting systems lies at the heart of the McKeanVlasov theory, and it is well established in the case of uncontrolled systems; see, for instance, McKean [1966] or Sznitman [1991]. 3
4 The Pontryagin principle approach mentioned above works directly with the limit model, that is, with the optimal control problem of McKeanVlasov type. The law of the controlled state process, in particular, appears in both the forward and the adoint equation. This approach is most useful when the convexity assumptions on the costs and the Hamiltonian required by the sufficient optimality condition are in force. This is the case for the problem at hand, which has a linearquadratic structure if one includes the mean of the controlled state process. Still, for general convex models, solving the coupled nonlinear system of forward and backward equation is difficult. The mean field approach in the spirit of Ankirchner and Dermoune [211], on the other hand, is based on the McKeanVlasov limit and the standard theory of dynamic programming. No particular convexity structure is needed. The difficulty lies in finding sufficiently explicit solutions for the prelimit problems. The optimal prelimit strategies, if given in feedback form, should also be regular enough so that the passage to the McKeanVlasov limit can be carried out. Optimal control problems of McKeanVlasov type are related to but different from what is known as mean field games. Mean field games are limit models for symmetric Nplayer games with interaction of mean field type. The optimality criterion for the prelimit models i.e, the Nplayer games is that of a Nash equilibrium. In the mean field limit, one representative player is left, while the behavior of all the other players is represented by a flow of probability measures on state space. For any given flow of measures, one has to solve an optimal control problem, the optimization problem for the representative player. A solution of the mean field game then consists in finding a flow of measures m such that the flow of marginal distributions for the optimally controlled state process of the representative player given m coincides with m. See again Carmona et al. [213] for references and a comparison with optimal control problems of McKeanVlasov type. Both types of problems have been solved rather explicitly for a class of linearquadratic models in Bensoussan et al. [214]; see, in particular, the comparison in Section 6 therein. The aim of this paper is to show that the particle limit approach as introduced by Ankirchner and Dermoune [211] in discrete time can be successfully applied to continuous time models as well. We consider one of the simplest situations, namely a market model with exactly one risky asset and 4
5 one riskfree asset. The riskfree asset is assumed to be constant, which corresponds to zero interest rate, while the evolution of the price of the risky asset is modeled as an arithmetic Brownian motion Bachelier dynamics. The case of a geometric Brownian motion MertonBlackScholes dynamics can be handled by reinterpreting the control processes: instead of controlling the possibly negative number of assets, control is exerted in terms of the market value of the assets. In the situation considered here, we obtain an explicit expression for the optimal investment strategy in feedback form. The result in itself is, of course, not new. It is essentially a special case of the solution obtained by Zhou and Li [2] or Andersson and Dehiche [211]; cf. Remark 3 in Section 4 below. The result could also be derived by time discretization from the solutions of the discretetime problems studied in Ankirchner and Dermoune [211]. Here, however, we rely on dynamic programming in continuous time. For the passage to the McKeanVlasov limit, we use a coupling argument in the spirit of Sznitman [1991]. The contribution of the present paper therefore lies in the fact that we combine standard tools to solve a nonstandard optimization problem, where the methods are suggested by the particle limit interpretation of the problem. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we formulate the meanvariance optimization problem and the corresponding finite horizon optimal control problem. In Section 3, we introduce auxiliary K component Kclone optimal control problems. Those problems, which are of linearquadratic type, are solved explicitly using dynamic programming. In Section 4, we pass to the limit as the number of components or clones or particles K tends to infinity. We obtain a limit feedback strategy and a limit value function, which are shown to yield the solution to the original optimization problem. 2 Original optimization problem We consider a financial market consisting of two assets, one risky for instance, a stock and one nonrisky a bond. For simplicity, we assume that the interest rate for the bond is equal to zero, the bond price therefore constant and, without loss of generality, equal to one. The price of the risky asset, which we denote by S, is assumed to follow an arithmetic Brownian motion or Brownian motion with drift. The process S thus satisfies the 5
6 equation dst = µ dt + σ dw t 1 with deterministic initial condition S = s >. In Eq. 1, µ > is the average rate of return, σ > the volatility, and W t t a standard onedimensional Wiener process defined on a filtered probability space Ω, F, F t, P satisfying the usual hypotheses. Taking the point of view of a small investor, let ut denote the not necessarily integer number of shares of the risky asset he or she holds at any given time t, and let Xt be the value of the corresponding selffinancing portfolio, which consists of the risky and the riskfree asset. The process X then evolves according to dxt = µ utdt + σ utdw t 2 with deterministic initial condition X = x, where x > is the initial capital. There is an implicit constraint on the investment strategy u due to the stochastic environment of the problem, namely, u is allowed to depend on the evolution of the random processes only up to the current time. The strategy u must therefore be nonanticipative, that is, u has to be Ft adapted. Below, we assume that u belongs to HT 2 F t, the space of all realvalued Ft T progressively measurable processes v such that E vt 2 dt <, where T > denotes the finite time horizon and E the expectation with respect to P. As is well known, if no boundedness or integrability conditions were placed on the investment strategies, then any distribution at terminal time could be attained. Our agent wants to choose a strategy u in order to maximize expected return over a fixed time interval [, T ], while trying at the same time to minimize financial risk. Interpreting risk as the variance of the underlying process and switching from gains to be maximized to costs to be minimized, the optimization problem is therefore to minimize Ju =. λ Var XT E XT { u H 2 T Ft, subect to X satisfies Eq. 2 with strategy u and X = x. 3 In 3, λ > is a fixed parameter, the risk aversion parameter. A strategy ū HT 2 F t is called optimal if Jū = inf u H 2 T Ft Ju. A function 6
7 z : [, T ] R R is called an optimal feedback control if the equation Xt = x + µ z s, Xs dt + σ z s, Xs dw t, t [, T ], 4 possesses a unique strong solution X such that ūt, ω. = z t, Xt, ω, t [, T ], ω Ω, defines an optimal strategy, that is, ū HT 2 F t and Jū = inf u H 2 T Ft Ju. The strategy ū will be referred to as the strategy induced by z, and the process X will be referred to as the portfolio process induced by z. Notice that both ū and X depend on z as well as the driving Wiener process. 3 Auxiliary prelimit optimization problems Let K N \ {1}, and let W, {1,..., K}, be K independent standard onedimensional Wiener processes defined on some filtered probability space Ω, F, F t, P. The processes W can be interpreted as independent clones of the Wiener process in 1. For {1,..., K}, define S according to Eq. 1 with W replaced by W. If u is a realvalued F t adapted process, then the value of the agent s portfolio in market clone follows the dynamics dx t = µ u tdt + σ u tdw t. 5 The R K valued process X = X 1,..., X K T we use boldface symbols for K dimensional column vectors thus obeys the stochastic differential equation dxt = µ utdt + σ diag u 1 t,..., u K t dw t, 6 where u = u 1,..., u K T is the agent s investment strategy for the K market clones and W = W 1,..., W K T. Clearly, W is a Kdimensional standard Wiener process. Given a vector v R K, the empirical measure associated with v is the probability measure on the Borel sets of R given by µ K v. = 1 K K δ v, =1 7
8 where δ x denotes Dirac measure concentrated in x R. The empirical mean of a Kdimensional vector is the mean calculated with respect to its empirical measure, which equals the arithmetic mean: emv =. y µ K v dy = 1 K v. R K Similarly, the empirical variance of a Kdimensional vector is the variance from the empirical mean calculated with respect to the empirical measure: emp Varv =. y emv 2 µ K v dy R = 1 K i=1 K v emv 2 =1 = em v 2 emv 2. The square in v 2 is to be understood componentwise, that is, v 2 is the Kdimensional vector v1 2,..., v2 K T. Recall that T is the finite time horizon. In setting up the Kclone optimization problem, it will be convenient to allow the initial time and the initial state to vary. In addition, we adopt the weak formulation of a stochastic control problem, that is, the stochastic basis and the driving noise processes are not fixed but part of the control. To be more precise, let U K be the set of all triples Ω, F, F t, P, W, u such that Ω, F, F t, P is a filtered probability space satisfying the usual hypotheses, W is a K dimensional standard F t Wiener process, and u = u 1,..., u K T is such that u HT 2 F t for every {1,..., K}. With a slight abuse of notation, we will occasionally write u U K instead of Ω, F, F t, P, W, u U K. For t, x [, T ] R K, the Kclone optimization problem is to minimize J K t, x; u =. λ E em XT 2 em XT 2 E em XT subect to { u UK, X solves Eq. 6 with strategy u and Xt = x. The value function associated with 7 is defined as 7 V K t, x. = inf J K t, x; u, t, x [, T ] R K. u U K 8
9 Theorem 1. The value function for the optimization problem 7 is given by V K t, x = 1 1 e µ 4λ 2 T t σ 2 1 1/K and the function z K : [, T ] R K R K defined by z K t, x. = µ σ 2 emx x /K yields an optimal feedback control. emx+λe µ 2 T t σ 2 1 1/K em x 2 emx 2, 2λ e µ 2 T t σ 2 1 1/K, {1,..., K}, Proof. The cost functional J K is linearquadratic in the state vector XT. To be more precise, define a Kdimensional vector c and a K K symmetric matrix G by K Then c =. 1 1 K., 1 G. = 2λ K 2 1 K K K 1 1 J K t, x; u = E GXT, XT + c, XT. 2 The controlled dynamics, which are given by Eq. 6, can be rewritten as dxt = b t, Xt, ut dt + Σ t, Xt, ut dw t with functions b: [, R K R K R K, Σ: [, R K R K R K K defined as b t, x, γ. = µ γ, Σ i t, x, γ. = σ γ δ i, i, {1,..., K}. The control problem 7 is thus of the linearquadratic type i.e., linearaffine dynamics, linearquadratic costs; its generalized Hamiltonian H is given by H t, x, γ, p, P. = K =1 9 µ p γ + σ2 2 P γ 2.
10 By the principle of dynamic programming, the value function should solve at least in the sense of viscosity solutions the HamiltonJacobiBellman terminal value problem { t v inf γ R K H t, x, γ, x v, Dxxv 2 = if t, x [, T R K, vt, x = 1 2 Gx, x + c, x if t = T, x 8 RK. The static optimization problem in 8 can be solved explicitly whenever P has nonzero diagonal entries. In fact, for every t, x, p [, T ] R K R K, every symmetric K K matrix P = P i with nonzero diagonal entries, argmin γ R K H t, x, γ, p, P = µ σ 2 p 1 P 11,..., µ σ 2 p K P KK T. 9 By a standard verification theorem [for instance, Theorem III.8.1 in Fleming and Soner, 26, p. 135], if v is a classical solution of 8, that is, v is in C 1,2 [, T ] R K, satisfies 8 in the sense of classical calculus, and v as well as its first and second order partial derivatives are of at most polynomial growth, then v coincides with the value function of the optimization problem 7. In view of the form of the controlled dynamics linear in the control, no explicit state dependency, the linearquadratic terminal costs, zero running costs, and the finite time horizon T, a good guess for v : [, T ] R K R K is vt, x = ft + e βt t c, x + eαt t 2 Gx, x for some constants α, β [, and some function f C 1 [, T ] such that ft =. With this ansatz, v is in C 1,2 [, T ] R K and its Hessian D 2 xxv always has nonzero diagonal entries. Plugging v into 8, and using 9, we find the unknown parameters α, β, and f according to α = µ2 K 1 σ 2, β =, ft = 1 e µ K 1 4λ 2 T t σ 2 1 1/K, t [, T ]. With this choice of the parameters, vt, x = 1 1 e µ 2 T t σ 2 1 1/K emx + λe µ 2 T t σ 2 1 1/K em x 2 emx 2, 4λ which, by the verification theorem cited above, is equal to the value function of control problem 7. Calculating the derivatives x vt, x, D 2 xxvt, x 1
11 with the above choice of parameters and plugging them into 9 yields the feedback control z K. Notice that z K is Lipschitz continuous in the state vector x so that the equation dxt = µ z K t, Xt dt + σ diag z K 1 t, Xt,..., z K K t, Xt dw t, possesses a unique Markovian solution given any deterministic initial condition. It follows [cf. Fleming and Soner, 26, p. 136] that z K is an optimal feedback control. Since the argmin in 9 is unique, the optimal feedback control z K is unique. The corresponding optimal strategy for initial condition Xt = x is determined by ut, ω. = z K t, Xt, ω, t t, ω Ω; notice that u U K. Remark 1. In the proof of Theorem 1, we made a linearquadratic ansatz for the function v. The nonstandard part of our guess is the choice of the matrix G for the quadratic form and the vector c for the linear part. The choice of c comes from the symmetry of dynamics and costs with respect to the components of the state vector. Notice that there is no direct interaction between components in the dynamics of the controlled process X. The choice of G is also suggested by the terminal condition of the HJB equation 8 or, equivalently, the terminal costs in the definition of the cost functional J K. Alternatively, though less convincingly, one can obtain a good guess for v by looking at the discrete time situation studied in Ankirchner and Dermoune [211]. 4 Passage to the limit We next show that, by letting the number of clones K tend to infinity, we obtain a feedback control that is optimal for the original optimization problem 3. By Theorem 1, the optimal feedback control for the Kclone optimization problem is given by z K = z K 1,..., z K T K with z K t, x = µ σ 2 emx x /K 2λ e µ 2 T t σ 2 1 1/K. 1 In passing to the limit, it will be convenient to work with a fixed stochastic basis carrying an infinite family of independent onedimensional standard 11
12 Wiener processes. Thus, let Ω, F, F t, P be a filtered probability space satisfying the usual hypotheses and carrying a sequence W N of independent onedimensional F t Wiener processes. Recall that x is the initial state at time zero for the portfolio process of the original problem 3. For K. XK X K K N \ {1}, set x K = x,..., x T R K, and let X K = 1,..., denote the unique strong solution of the system of stochastic differential equations d X K t = µ z K t, X K t dt + σ z K t, X K t dw t, 11 {1,..., K}, with initial condition X K = x K. The process X K has the same distribution as the unique solution to Eq. 6 or the system of equations determined by 5 when feedback control z K is applied and the initial condition is x K at time zero; for the corresponding costs we have λ E em X K T 2 em X K 2 T E em X K T = V K, x K. Define the function z : [, T ] R R by zt, x =. µ σ 2 x + 1 2λ e µ 2 σ 2 T x. 12 The function z will turn out to be an optimal feedback control for the optimization problem of Section 2. Notice that z is Lipschitz continuous in the space variable. For N, let X be the unique strong solution of X t = x + µ z s, X s ds + σ z s, X s dw s. 13 Lemma 1. Define functions m, n: [, T ] R by mt =. x + 1 e µ2 σ 2λ 2 T e µ2 σ 2 T t nt. = x 2 + x λ e µ2 σ 2 T e µ2 σ 2 T t + 1 e 2 µ2 4λ 2 σ 2 T e µ2 σ 2 2T t. Then the following convergences hold uniformly in t [, T ]: T 12
13 a lim K em X K t = mt in L 2 P; b lim K E em X K 2 t = nt; c for every N, lim K zk t, X K t = zt, X t, lim K Moreover, for every N, every t [, T ], E X t = mt, E X t 2 = nt. X K t = X t in L 2 P. Proof. For K N \ {1}, t [, T ], set Y K t =. em X K t, L K t =. em X K t 2. µ, C K = σ 2 1 1/K, g K t =. 1 2λ e µ 2 σ 2 t 1 1/K, gt =. 1 2λ e µ 2 Clearly, C K µ/σ 2, g K t gt uniformly in t [, T ] as K. By definition, Y K t = 1 K K K =1 X t, L K t = 1 K K K =1 X t 2. Notice that mt = x + gt gt t. σ 2 t. nt = mt 2 gt t/2 2 gt t 2 + 2gT gt t. In view of 1 and 11, Y K solves the stochastic differential equation dy K t = µ C K g K T t dt + 1 K σ C K Y K t K =1 K X t + g K T t dw t 14 with initial condition Y K = x, while L K solves dl K t = 2µ C K Y K t 2 L K t + Y K t g K T t dt + σ 2 CK 2 L K t Y K t 2 + g K T t 2 dt + 1 K K 2σ C K =1 XK t Y K t K X t + g K T t dw t 15 13
14 with initial condition L K = x 2. By the independence of the Wiener processes W 1,..., W K, the BurkholderDavisGundy inequality, and Gronwall s, Y K, L K possess moments of any polynomial or lemma, XK 1,..., der; moreover, sup sup K N s [,T ] X K K E L K s = sup sup K N s [,T ] E 1 K K =1 X K In order to prove the limit in a, it is enough to show that lim sup K sup t [,T ] Y E K t mt 2. Integration of Eq. 14 yields, for every t [, T ], Y K t = x + g K T g K T t + 1 K σ C K Y K s K =1 s < K X s + g K T s dw s. Using Itô s isometry and the independence of the Wiener processes, one finds that Y E K t mt 2 2 g K T gt + gt t g K T t 2 2µ 2 K 2 t + σ 2 K 1 2 E Y K K s X s + g K T s dw s =1 = 2 g K T gt + gt t g K T t 2 + 2µ 2 σ 2 K 1 2 K =1 E Y K s K 2 X s + g K T s ds 2 g K T gt + gt t g K T t 2 16T µ2 K 2 + K σ 2 K 1 2 g K T 2 + sup E XK s. s [,T ] =1 14
15 Since g K t gt uniformly and thanks to 16, lim sup K lim sup K sup t [,T ] Y E K t mt 2 16T µ 2 K σ 2 K 1 2 g K T 2 + sup s [,T ] E 1 K K 2 XK s =. =1 In order to prove b, set n K t. = E L K t, t [, T ]. We have to show that lim K n K t = nt for every t [, T ]. Integration of Eq. 15 yields, for t [, T ], L K t = x 2 + 2µ C K σ 2 CK 2 Y K s 2 L K s ds + 2µ C K Y K s g K T s ds + σ 2 CK K K =1 2σ C K XK s Y K s g K T s 2 ds K X s + g K T s dw s. The stochastic integral in the above display is a true martingale thanks to the L p integrability of the components of X K. Using the FubiniTonelli theorem, it follows that n K satisfies the integral equation n K t = x 2 + 2µ C K σ 2 CK 2 E Y K s 2 n K s ds + 2µ C K E Y K s g K T s ds + σ 2 CK 2 g K T s 2 ds Notice that lim K σ 2 C 2 K = µ2 σ 2 = lim K µ C K. Let n denote the unique solution over [, T ] of the integral equation nt = x 2 + µ2 σ 2 ms + gt s 2 ds µ2 σ 2 nsds. 15
16 By part a, E Y K s ms and E Y K s 2 ms 2 as K, uniformly in s [, T ]. It follows that lim K n K t = nt, uniformly in t [, T ]. Since ms + gt s = x + 1 over [, T ] of the integral equation x + 1 nt = x 2 + µ2 σ 2 t d µ2 nt = dt σ 2 2λ e µ 2 2λ e µ 2 σ 2 T, n is the unique solution σ 2 T 2 µ2 σ 2 nsds or, equivalently, the unique solution over [, T ] of the differential equation x σ 2 T µ2 2λ e µ 2 σ 2 nt with initial condition n = x 2. That solution is given by nt = e µ2 σ 2 t x 2 + µ2 x t σ 2 T e µ2 σ 2 s ds = x 2 + x λ σ 2 2λ e µ 2 e µ2 σ 2 T e µ2 σ 2 T t + 1 4λ 2 e 2 µ2 σ 2 T e µ2 σ 2 2T t. Therefore, lim K n K t = nt = nt, uniformly in t [, T ]. For part c, fix N, and let X be the unique solution of Eq. 13 with X = x and driving Wiener process W. In order to prove c, it is enough K to show that lim sup K sup t [,T ] E z t, X K t z t, X t 2 X K, and analogously for t and X t. For t [, T ], K N, set R K t =. µ σ 2 em X K t + g K T t µ 1 1/K σ 2 x + gt µ K + X σ 2 t. K 1 µ Clearly, lim K σ 2 1 1/K = µ. Thanks to part a, σ 2 em X K t + g K T t K mt + gt t = x + gt in L 2 P, uniformly in t [, T ]. By the symmetry of Eq. 11 and the initial condition, XK K 1 t,..., X K t have the same distribution for every t [, T ]. Estimate 16 therefore implies that sup sup E XK t 2 <. K N t [,T ] 16
17 It follows that Now, for every t [, T ], z K sup E R K t 2 K. t [,T ] t, X K t z t, X t 2 µ = XK σ 2 t X t + R K t 2 2 µ2 σ 4 XK t X t R K t 2. In view of Eq. 11 and Eq. 13, respectively, using Hölder s inequality, Itô s isometry, and the FubiniTonelli theorem, we have E XK t X t 2 2µ 2 E z K s, X K s z s, X s 2 ds + 2σ 2 E z K s, X K s z s, X s 2 dw s 2 µ 2 T + σ 2 K E z It follows that, for every t [, T ], K E z t, X K t z t, X t 2 µ 4 4 σ 4 T + µ2 K σ 2 E z R K s sup E s [,T ] Therefore, by Gronwall s lemma, sup E t [,T ] z K t, X K t z t, X t 2 s, X K s z s, X s 2 ds. s, X K s z s, X s 2 ds 2 sup E R K t 2 e 4 µ 4 σ 4 T + µ2 σ 2 T. t [,T ] 17
18 Since sup t [,T ] E R K t 2 as K, we have lim sup K sup t [,T ] K E z t, X K t z t, X t 2. Similarly, for every t [, T ], E XK t X t 2 µ 4 4 σ 4 T + µ2 σ 2 E XK s X s 2 ds + 4T µ 2 T + σ 2 sup E R K s 2. s [,T ] Thus, again by Gronwall s lemma and since sup t [,T ] E R K t 2, lim sup K sup t [,T ] E XK t X t 2. The last part of the assertion is now a consequence of parts a, b, c, and the fact that X K has identically distributed components for every K N. Alternatively, the first and second moments of X t can be calculated directly from Eq. 13 and 12, the definition of z. Theorem 2. The function zt, x =. µ σ 2 x + 1 2λ e µ 2 σ 2 T x, t, x [, T ] R, yields an optimal feedback control for the original optimization problem 3, and the minimal costs are given by λ Var 1 XT E XT = 1 e µ2 σ 4λ 2 T x, where X is the portfolio process induced by z. Before giving the proof of Theorem 2, we make a few remarks regarding the optimal feedback control z. Remark 2. The optimal feedback control z is affinelinear in the current state x, does not depend on the current time t, while it depends on the time horizon T as well as the initial state x. This last dependence is due to 18
19 the nonlinear nature of the cost functional, which makes the optimization problem inconsistent in time. The fact that z does not depend on the current time t is something of a coincidence, due to our choice of interest rates equal to zero. Recall that, by Lemma 1, mt. = x + 1 2λ e µ2 σ 2 T e µ2 σ 2 T t, is the L 2 limit of the empirical means of the Kclone optimization problem. For the optimal strategy z, we can therefore write zt, x = µ σ 2 mt + 1 2λ e µ 2 σ 2 T t x. 17 This expression coincides, in the limit as K, with the expression for the optimal feedback strategy z K established in Theorem 1 for the th component of the Kclone optimization problem. In 17, z apparently depends on current time, but this dependence cancels out when we plug in the expression for mt. On the other hand, z truly depends through m on the initial state x, since m = x. Also notice that mt = E Xt, where X is the optimal portfolio process, the one induced by z. Remark 3. Expression 17 coincides with the optimal feedback strategy found at the end of Section 5 of Andersson and Dehiche [211] in the special case of zero interest rate ρ t, constant volatility σ t σ, and constant average rate of return α t µ; our risk aversion parameter λ corresponds to γ/2 there. In Section 5 of Andersson and Dehiche [211], the price of the risky asset follows a geometric Brownian motion, not an arithmetic as here, but the resulting meanvariance optimization problem, including the dynamics for the portfolio process, is the same as in our case. The difference lies entirely in the different interpretation of the investment strategies, namely as control expressed in terms of realvalued number of assets versus market value of assets. Remark 4. The solution to the meanvariance optimization problem seen above is known as precommitment solution. This refers to the fact that we solve the optimization problem exclusively from the point of view of the agent s state at time zero, ignoring intermediate times. The gametheoretic approach leads to a different interpretation of the optimization problem and to 19
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