The ACI Traffic Forecast Report (TFR)

Transcription

1 The ACI Traffic Forecast Report (TFR) ACI Statistics and Forecasting Workshop Catherine Harmel-Tourneur, DKMA March

2 Overview of the Presentation Presentation of the ACI Traffic Forecasts. Methodology. ACI vs. other industry forecasts. Key forecast results: The ACI long term forecast; and The ACI short term forecast. 1

3 ACI Traffic Forecast Report (TFR) The ACI report is prepared in partnership with DKMA since DKMA is an aviation market, research and forecasting specialist. Aside from the TFR, still in partnership with ACI, we prepare individual airport forecasts (aka as the Traffic Forecast Advisory Services ). Finally we also manage the Airport Survey Quality (ASQ). The report highlights traffic from the perspective of the airport industry. Period covered: Latest edition was released in Q The report is based on the traffic forecasts from over 300 airports. Additionally, inputs/ adjustments are made. The forecast covers: Development of worldwide passengers; Traffic projections by world regions; Individual countries; Forecast traffic growth between region pairs; and Freight and aircraft movement forecast. 2

4 140 Individual Countries are Covers Africa: Algeria, Côte d Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Reunion, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia and Zimbabwe Asia/ Pacific: Australia, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam Europe: Armenia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia & Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine and United Kingdom Latin America/ Caribbean: Argentina, Aruba, Barbados, Bermuda, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guadeloupe, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Mexico, Neth. Antilles, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Lucia, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela North America: Canada and USA Middle East: Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates 3

5 Overview of the Methodology Steps to the production of the TFR: Send and compile completed questionnaires to ACI members: Questionnaire covers: pax, cargo and ATMs. For the short term period some forecast figures are revised: Revisions based on most recent capacity development (OAG); Year to date trends; Carrier bankruptcy and other events; State of the economy; Etc. Internal models, including regression driven models, are used. The TFR is a combination of a bottom-up forecast (short/ medium term) and top-down (long term). 4

6 Overview of the Methodology: The Work Flow Traffic inputs Airline capacity inputs Socio-economic inputs Questionnaire inputs ACI traffic database Other data sources (FAA, Civil Aviation Authorities, etc.) OAG Flight Schedules (History and current year) Forecast database/ models GDP & Population: History & Forecast Tourism Historical trends Projected trends Passengers Flights Freight By country Global Domestic vs. Intl Intl by world region 5

7 ACI TFR vs. Other Forecast Sources Main sources of industry forecasts ACI IATA Airbus Boeing Rolls-Royce Forecast period 20 years 5 years 20 years 20 years 20 years Year by year forecasts First 5 years First 5 years No No No Country totals Yes Yes No No No Domestic-International split Yes Yes No No No Region-pairs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Country-to-region Yes Yes No No No Country-pairs No Yes No No No Historical trends Yes No No Yes No Forecas assumptions Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Passenger volumes Yes Yes No No No RPK volumes No Yes No Yes Yes Annual rates of growth Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 6

8 Global Results: Comparing Forecasts Traffic growth expressed in RPKs is generally higher than when expressed in passenger enplanements. Based on OAG, historically this difference has been 1.0% between and 0.8% between It means that, when expressed in passenger-kilometres, the ACI forecast is close to 4.9% p.a. for the next 20 years. 20 year period forecast ACI Pax 4.1% Airbus RPKs 4.7% Boeing RPKs 5.3% Rolls-Royce RPKs 4.8% OAG ( ) Seats 2.6% OAG ( ) Seat-km 3.4% Difference 0.8% 7

9 Link Between Economic Growth and Air Transport Source: DKMA 8

10 The Markets Driving Growth Source: DKMA 9

11 Long Term Forecast Trends by World Region Small Base High Potential Large Base High Potential Large Base Moderate Potential Source: DKMA 10

12 Growth Trends by Key Route Areas Source: DKMA 11

13 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 8.6% Most Fast Growing Markets will be in Asia Fastest Growing Countries 8.2% 8.0% 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.5% India Vietnam Indonesia Romania Brazil Peru Philippines Egypt South Africa 12 Mainland China Average annual growth Source: DKMA

14 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, In 20 Years China Will be Almost as Large as the US Largest Aviation Markets in Growth 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% India Brazil UK Germany Spain Australia Japan Italy 13 Mainland China US Passengers (000) Average annual growth Source: DKMA

15 Short Term Forecast 6 time per year a short term regional forecast is published. Can be downloaded for free at: Latest forecast released in Feb Passenger traffic: History and short term forecast 10% 8% Forecast 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% J-09 F-09 M-09 A-09 M-09 J-09 J-09 A-09 S-09 O-09 N-09 D-09 J-10 F-10 M-10 A-10 M-10 J-10 J-10 A-10 S-10 O-10 N-10 D-10 J-11 F-11 M-11 A-11 M-11 Source: DKMA 14

16 Short Term Forecast Forecast indicates that the start of 2011 will be positive but risk exist. Continued robust growth in emerging markets and economic rebounds in North America and Europe. In Europe the forecast reflects the expectation that its travel market will recover from the volcanic. The forecast is tempered by uncertainties surrounding the political situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Forecast was prepared in early February Short term forecast by regions May 2011 Estimates Forecasts January February March April May YTD Africa 9.4% 3.5% 5.9% 6.0% 4.3% 5.8% Asia/Pacific 9.1% 8.5% 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 8.0% Europe 6.9% 5.2% 5.1% 15.3% 4.9% 7.3% Lat. America/Caribbean 9.2% 8.1% 7.9% 7.3% 6.4% 7.8% Middle East 6.5% 8.2% 8.1% 5.2% 5.0% 6.6% North America 1.9% 3.4% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.4% World 6.2% 5.8% 5.7% 8.3% 5.2% 6.2% Source: DKMA 15

17 Contacts For more a copy of the short term forecast, information or questions, please contact: Catherine Harmel-Tourneur Director Tel: catherine.harmel@dkma.com or check our website: 16