PGE Renowable Energy Co. as a past of renowable energy market in Poland

Transcription

1 PGE Renewable Energy Co. PGE Renowable Energy Co. as a past of renowable energy market in Poland Warsaw, 14 june Why PGE Renewable Energy Co.? The Company's mission is to provide system services that guarantee security of the national transmission system, as well as to ensure the highest quality electrical energy, generated by environment friendly technologies, using both renewable energy sources and gas. PGE Renewable Energy Co. owns: Hydro: Żarnowiec: 716 MW Żar:500 MW Solina: 200MW Dychów: 90 MW 19 small hydro power plants Wind: Kamieńsk: 30 MW Other reneweables: Biogas Power Plant ( test plant)

2 Portfolio of PGE s existing generation assets Generation assets portfolio of PGE, by installed capacity (GW) 12,1% 0,7% 0,2% 30,4% Thermal (hard coal) 3,4% Thermal (lignite) Thermal (gas) 83,6% Water (pumped storage) Water (other) 53,2% PGE 100% = 12,3 GW ESP 13% = 1,6 GW Wind 3 PGE main assets El. _arnowiec 716 MW e El. Szczecin 88 MWe 220 MW t El. Dolna Odra MW e 117 MWt El. Pomorzany 134 MWe 323 MWt EC Gorz ów 97,5 MWe 399 MWt ZEC Bydgoszcz 262 MWe 857 MWt ZEB 2,9 T Wh El. Wodna D_be 20 MW Distribution Hard coal power plants/chps Lignite power plants/mines Gas CHPs Hydro Wind El. Wodna _ZE ZEW -T Dych ów 2,8 TWh 5,2 T Wh El. Wodna Raduszec Stary 90 MW e ZE_-T El. W. Gubin El. W. Gorzupia I i II 4,3 TWh El. W. Zasieki El. W. Graj ówka. El. W. Przysieka El. W. _ aga _ I i II El. W. _arki Wielkie El. W. Ma _omice KWB El. El. W. Zielisko El. W. Szprotawa Be_chat ów El. W. Bukówka El. W. Kliczk ów Be_chat ów ZEORK 4,4 TWh El. W. Sobolice MW e El. Turów El. Wiatrowa Kamie k 30 Mwe 376 MWt 2088 MW e Ciep_ownia Kielce 295 MWt 286 MWt El. Opole KWB Turów 1492 MW e 102,5 MWt RZE El. W. 3,8 TWh El. W. Januszkowice Kr_pna zak_ady energetyczne Elektrownie i elektrociep _ownie w _gla kamiennego El. Wodna Por _bka Elektrownie w _gla brunatnego El. Wodna Tresna El. Por _bka -_ar Elektrownie i elektrociep _ownie gazowe 500 MW e Elektrownie wodne, w tym szczytowo -pompowe El. Wodna Elektrownie wiatrowe Myczkowce Lubzel 3,3 TWh EC Lublin 246,5 MW e 592 MW t ZKE 1,9 TWh EC Rzesz ów 102 MWe 332 MWt El. Solina 200 MW e 4

3 Integration Implementation of managerial structure granting: - Unifaction of targets within PGE - Centralisation of specific activities within PGE - Specialisation within PGE Assets arrangement within PGE group: - Shifting RES assets from PGE group to PGE EO Capital assets arrangemenet within PGE EO group: - Internal rearrangement within PGE EO: production assets contrentration in PGE EO and spinning off exploatation operators PGE trade mark promotion 5 Organisational structure (functional) PGE Managing companies Mining and generation (BOT GiE) Wholesale (PSE-Electra) Retail Distribution Renewables (PGE EO) Operational units KWBB KWBT Opole power plant Bełchatów power plant Turów power plant ZEDO power plant EC Gorzów EC Lublin EC Rzeszów ZEC Bydgoszcz Other 6 ZEŁT ŁZE ZEB RZE ZEWT ZEORK LUBZEL ZKE OSD ZEŁT OSD ŁZE OSD ZEB OSD RZE OSD ZEWT OSD ZEORK OSD LUBZEL OSD ZKE Hydro: Hydro Żarnowiec: 716 MW Żar:500 MW Solina: 200MW Wind Dychów: 90 MW Dębe: 20 MW Wind Kamieńsk: 30 MW Other reneweables: Biogas Power Plant ( test plant)

4 Role of business segments Mining and generation Building of integrated Group Lowering generation cost Increasing the availability of the generating units Minimising investment with the lowest ROR Adhering to the environmental regulations Increasing revenues from other activities, including heat generation and distribution Wholesale Retail Distribution Maximising the sales margin Minimising the costs of balancing market of the entire Group Maximising the margin from sales on foreign markets Developing trading Minimising the costs and risk of fuel purchase Minimising the trading costs Maximising the electricity sales margin Increasing the market share in retail sales Developing and maximising the margin from sales of other products Minimising own sales costs Minimising distribution costs Minimising investment with the lowest ROR Increasing the revenues from services to the existing customers Minimising the time of new connections Improving the quality of delivery and technical services to the clients Renewable energy Production capacity enhancement on renewable energy sources Development of the Center of the Competence Increasing the green certificates production Lowering generation cost Increasing the availability of generating units Minimising investments with the lowest ROR 7 Environmental regulations Required energy mix sold to the end-consumers in Poland, % 77,6% 71,3% 67,8% 65,2% 64,1% 62,9% 5,1% 0,8% 8,7% 10,4% 10,4% 10,4% 7,0% 2,7% 2,9% 3,1% 3,3% 3,5% 16,5% 19,0% 20,6% 21,3% 22,2% 23,2% Electricity from other sources Electricity from RES Electricity form highly efficient gas cogeneration Electricity from highly efficient cogeneration other than gas

5 Comparison of forecasts of renewable energy market share in 2020 Eleboration/ Forecast for 2020 Ministry of Environment, Strategy of Renewable Energy Development, 2000 EC BREC, ESD, Utilization of SAFIRE programm for elaboration of development of renewable energy sources in Poland up to 2020, 2001 ARE S.A., Ecological scenario of development of national energy sector, 2002 Fraunhofer ISI, Analysis of the renewable energy s evolution up to 2020, 2003 Ministry of Economy, Energy Policy of Poland untill 2030, Share in energy production 16,8% 9,8 13,4% 6,6 16,2% 7,2 22,2% 10,8% MEDIUM FORECAST 13% PGE and sources of renewable energy PGE aspirations by 2012 regarding renewable energy generation Reaching 30-45% share in domestic market of renewable energy Areas of renewable energy development within the PGE Group Hydro-energy Large HPPs on Wisla and Odra Small HPPs Wind farms On-shore wind farms Off-shore wind farms Biomass Co-combustion/ combustion Dispersed energy PGE investment in renewable energy in : PLN 4-8 bn 10 HPP Porąbka-Żar Wind farm Kamieńsk

6 PGE s renewables aspirations PGE s aspiration is to increase its production from renewable sources up to tenfold until PGE s aspirations concerning renewable energy production (TWh) Potential options to increase PGE s market share in renewables Market leader aspiration To obtain a market share in renewables equal to PGE s market share in generation (45% market share) 0,6 0,6 1,5 1,2 2,4 1,8 3,4 2,3 4,3 2,9 5,2 3,5 6,1 4,1 Risk minimazing aspiration To secure Renewables Obligation Certificates supply for PGE s sales company (30% market share) Waterpower engineering Large hydro power plants on Vistula and/or Odra Small hydro power plants Wind farms Wind farms on-shore Wind farms off-shore Biomass / biogas Biomass co-firing Distributed biomass / biogas generation Geothermics Wind Potential capacity: 445 PJ Including onshore 377 and offshore 67 Actual utilisation: Onshore just 0,22% Huge number of projets under evaluation (26GW) Forecast: Till 2012 only 10% of projets under evaluation will be executed Till % of onshore potential and 10% of offshore potential will be utilized Offshore development after 2015 depending on strategical decisions (government, grid operators, big power producers groups) After 2015 new development possibilities should emerge (new generation of wind turbines 5MW, and increasing connection to the grid possibilities (transeuropean transfer lines) 12

7 Wind Risks Environmental restrictions due to protected areas (Natura 2000), not fully clear policy concerning possibilty of investing in this areas Restrictions in optimal wind areas due to problems with grid connection Risk of ability of power absorbtion of national electroenergetic system (above 3 GW installed power), Changes in RES supporting system (after 2020 national goals achived) 13 ESP Wind Projects in Poland MW 2. 8 MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW 14

8 National grid connection status Wind projets location 15 PGE EO share in Wind Projects in Poland Actually in PGE EO there are 11 projets at different stage of execution and at total planned instaleld power ca 1000 MW. It consist app. 10% projects under execution in Poland. 16

9 Potential capacity: 18PJ (5TWh/year) Water Entire potential is estimated to be at the level of 8,5 TWh but due to actual environmental restrictions and economical situation the project of HPP on Wisla River seems to be questionable, Actual utilisation: 41% Forecast: According to Hydro Power Plants Asociation development will base on small HPP (theoretically up to 10MW but in practice app. 1MW) with the installed power increase by 10MW/year. Up to 2020 can be utilised up to 62% of potential capacity (Average in EU 67%). 17 Water Risks: Location Implementation of NATURA 2000 and other restrictions (EU water directive) can limit avaliability of locations of small hydro power plants (below 10MW) Increase of costs of investments due to lack of suitable locations. Small HPP projets are executed mainly by small inwestors as they are not reciving support from the government and the costs are high and execution time is extending the potential can not be fully utilized. 18

10 Biomass Potential: 600 PJ Including dry solid waste 166, biogas (wet waste) 123, wood 24, energetic plants 287 (celulosis, oil etc) Actual utilisation: Utilised (fully?) dry solid waste and wood Rarely utilised biogas, agricultural not at all No energetic plants plantations Forecast: Dry solid waste nearly fully utilised no space for development Development of biogas utilisation - first wastebased after 2015 farming Energetic plants plantations development first as a fuel after 2015 farming biogas 19 Risks: Biomass Plantations agricultural production intensification competition to food production Envirnmental risks unknown consequences of lasting big surface plantations Export of bio-fuels (solid and liquid) decreasing possibilities of acheiving national targets. 20

11 Effectivness of different projets in RES area Big HPP Wind PP Bio-fuel cogeneration plant Small HPP Biomass cofiring Installed power (electrical) [MW] Installed power (heat) [MW] Inwestment cost (tho. PLN) Unit investment cost (tho. PLN/MW) Unit investment cost (tys. PLN/MWh) ,8 12, Electrical energy price = =470 PLN/MWh 21 Investement plans Category of investment plans: Development investments of electricity generation from renewable sources Modernization Conceptual works and Development Fund Other investments 22

12 Development investments Development investments in the area of RES include: A.1. Wind projects Wind farms construction A.2. Bioenergetics Construction of dispersed, local sources of electrical energy and heat based on technology of biomass fermentation A.3. Hydropower Construction of new SHPP Only this investment category is increasing and defining the total investments planned 23 Investment plans - RES Technology Installed power increase MW Production increase TWh Wind PP ,3 Bio energy 50 0,3 HPP 10 0,05 Total: ,65 24

13 Investment plans RES - outlays Investment outlays for Renewable Energy Sources are estimated at the level of 3,8 bln PLN ( 1 bln Euro) Financing sources: own capitals PGE capitals EU funds Commercial credits other [mld PLN] 4,0 3,0 2,0 RES investment outlays 1,0 0, Year 25 PGE Renewable Energy Co. Thank you for attention 26