European Business Association

Transcription

1 European Business Association

2 Ukrainian Generation Sector Calls for Significant Investments to Comply with Environmental Standards International obligations of Ukraine, mg m actual Order of the Ministry for Environment % 2001/80/EC % -87% Sulfur Nitrogen Dust Ukraine s commitment for contaminant emissions reduction sets tough requirements for energy companies Compliance of Ukrainian generation sector requires additional investments of USD 12 billion by 2030

3 To Maintain GDP Growth, Ukraine Has to Start New Power Units Construction in 2-3 Years Satisfying the demand for electricity in Ukraine, GW Demand New build EUR 46bn Upgraded capacities 47 EUR 10bn Operating capacities TOTAL investments EUR 56 bn Calculations by McKinsey&Co

4 No Significant Changes Expected in the Energy Balance of Ukraine Electricity generation forecast for Ukraine, TWh Renewables Pumped Storage Power Plants Hydro Power Plants Thermal Power Plants Combined Heat and Power Plants Nuclear Power Plants Calculations by McKinsey&Co

5 Ukrainian Coal and Its Consumption by GenCos Coal remains by far the most important fuel for Ukrainian thermal GenCos, accounting for 96% of their total fuel (natural gas accounts for 4%). Coal consumption by GenCos, in concentrate, G,DG,T,A grade, thousand tonnes Thermal and anthracite coal mining, in concentrate, G,T,A grade, thousand tonnes Average yearly coal price, per tonne, in concentrate (ash 23%, wet 8.9%) E 0 5

6 Power Generation Market of Ukraine Thermal power plants are the only generation assets in Ukraine with available capacity to meet mid-term electricity consumption growth Breakdown of Ukraine s electricity production, gross Power plants output to WEM, TWh Others 9% Nuclear 47% Nuclear Power Plants Thermal Power Plants 32,6 41, 5 Hydro 7% Combined Heating Power Plants Hydro Power Plants 7,5 6,2 Thermal 37% Non-conventional Power Plants 0,2 Installed capacity, MWt Installed capacity utilization, % Thermal & Combined Heating Power Plants Nuclear Power Plants 73 Nuclear Power Plants Thermal & Combined Heating Power Plants 31 Hydro Power Plants Hydro Power Plants 27 * All figures are 1H 2011 actual Source: DTEK, Main Data Processing Centre of NPC Ukrenergo 6

7 Thermal Power Generation Market GenCos share of thermal power generation, % Vostokenergo 27% GenCos output to WEM, TWh Vostokenergo 8,9 Centrenergo 19% Dneproenergo 7,8 Donbassener go 11% Zapadenergo 19% Dneproenergo 24% GenCos installed capacity, MWt Centrenergo 6,2 Zapadenergo 6,1 Donbassenergo 3,7 GenCos Average tariffs, kop/ kwt h Dneproenergo Zapadenergo Centrenergo Vostokenergo 4651* ** ,00 40,00 20,00 17,26 20,9 24,89 33,24 36,75 44,80 53,33 Donbassenergo , H 2011 * Dnepronergo s installed capacity is net of suspended oil & gas power units, and out of service units (8185 MWt including all units) ** Centrenergo s installed capacity is net of suspended oil & gas power units, (7600 MWt including all units) * All figures are 1H 2011 actual Source: DTEK, the Main Data Processing Center of NPC Ukrenergo 7

8 Name Profiles of Thermal Power Plants (TPP) in Ukraine Year of commissioning #of power generating units /rated capacity Running time of power generating units (thousands of hours) Dneproenergo Krivorozhskaya TPP х Zaporozhskaya TPP x x Pridneprovskaya TPP x x Centrenergo Uglegorskaya TPP x x Zmiyevskaya TPP x x Tripolskaya TPP x Donbassenergo Starobeshevskaya TPP x Slavyanskaya TPP x 80 1 x Zapadenergo Burshtynskaya TPP x Ladyzhinskaya TPP x Dobrotvorskaya TPP x x 150 Vostokenergo Zuyevskaya TPP x Kurakhovskaya TPP х Luganskaya TPP x х

9 Technical Condition of Power Generation Units at Ukrainian Thermal Power Plants 350,0 300, MW MW Metal age limit determined in current technological normative documents 250,0 Individually allowed resource Thou t./year 200,0 150, MW MW Individual resource 100,0 Economic life 50,0 7 units 4.1 % 76 units 68.2 % 9 units 9.9 % 6 units 17.8 % 0,0

10 Challenges of LCP Directive Implementation Big scope of the task and tight schedule of its implementation Annual non-recoverable ecotax Technical restrictions: absence of free areas, flexible operation modes of thermal power plants CHALLENGES TO EXECUTION OF DIRECTIVE 2001/80/ЕС Lack of experience in design and construction of sulfur and nitrogen treatment systems in Ukraine High cost of flue gas treatment systems, which does not match the actual capacities of the companies in this sector Energy strategy of Ukraine Несоответствие by 2030 does Энергетической not comply with стратегии the present Украины realistic на situation период and до 2030г. requires реалиям adjustment сегодняшнего дня и необходимость ее корректировки The issues of recycling/disposal of sulfur-nitrogen treatment products have not been studied Lack of a governmental plan (program) for reduction of pollutant emissions

11 Scenario of the Competitive Environment Development in the Thermal Power Generation Sector TPP privatization Market liberalization Preconditions for new construction: growth of tariffs, electric power deficit Start of new generation construction by private companies First retrofitted units retire. Commissioning of new TPP Quick loss of market share by power generating units with efficiency of less than 35% Liberalized market will have not be established till The environmental program can be implemented at the expense of electricity tariff, but only within a limited scope. As for thermal generation, 30-35% of the comprehensive environmental program can be implemented with governmental support. The initiation of postponement of the LCP Directive implementation is a must. Old units will lose their competitive position and be replaced with new ones. A TWO-STAGE PROGRAM IS THE MOST REALISTIC SCENARIO FOR IMPLEMENTING THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM: Stage 1 to implement the environmental program at the expense of the investment component in the electricity tariff Stage 2 to replace old units with new ones equipped with sulfur and nitrogen treatment systems. Year 2030 is the earliest period for execution of EU environmental requirements

12 Household Tariffs Are Among the Lowest in Europe Average households electricity rates in Europe, / Kwh Ukraine min Ukraine max 0,025 0,033 below 150 kwtper month above150 kwt per month Russia 0,08 The average household tariff for the EU-27 is 0,16 /Kwh. with the striking difference to Ukraine at 0,025-0,033 /Kwh. To bring Ukrainian tariffs to an economically justified level a four-fold increase is needed. Romania Latvia Lithuania France Finland 0,11 0,11 0,13 0,14 0,15 80,0 Tariff Growth in Ukraine, kop/kwh Industrial, 1st class Industrial, 2nd class Households, consumption to 150 kwh 78,4 Poland United Kingdom Hungary Slovakia Austria Germany Denmark 0,15 0,15 0,17 0,17 0,20 0,26 0,29 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 48,3 36,1 21,9 61,0 45,9 21,9 66,8 51,6 21,9 61,3 28, E Source: Europe s Energy portal, DTEK All figures are 1H 2011 actual 1 2

13 Conclusion and Initiatives It is not possible to implement the requirements of Directive 2001/80/ЕСin full and on time. It is necessary to consider the opportunity to prolongthe execution period of Directive 2001/80/ЕС till EnCSecretariat might want to establish channels of communication with Ukrainianbusiness and experts on the above. Foreign independent experts might as well be involved. In order to understand and use international experience and the best practices, is necessary to involve foreign experts for joint development of a Road Map for execution of Directive 2001/80/ЕС. It is necessary to exert pressure on the authorities as to urgent beginning of development of a National Emissions Reduction Plan. The plan should be developed urgently and at the State level. Identification of possible sources of funding will be of key importance.

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