ASEAN and Taiwan. Presentation by Rodolfo C. Severino, Head, ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.

Transcription

1 ASEAN and Taiwan Presentation by Rodolfo C. Severino, Head, ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.

2 Taiwan-ASEAN FTA? Taiwan s current pre-occupation: FTA with ASEAN My advice: Do not even think of it! Reasons for Taiwan s aspiration Reasons for not pursuing it

3 Taiwan Aspiration for FTA with ASEAN Intensive and extensive economic relations with ASEAN countries Not to be left out of regional economic arrangements Improving relations across Taiwan Straits since Ma Ying-jeou became President Pressure from people in Taiwan for broader diplomatic space

4 Taiwan-ASEAN Economic Relations Revaluation of NTD (1986) Look south policy Growth of Taiwan economic activities with and in ASEAN countries: Trade Investments Tourism Transport Labour People-to-people

5 Taiwan Trade with Leading ASEAN Countries In US$ Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam million Exp Imp Exp Imp Exp Imp Exp Imp Exp Imp Exp Imp

6 Taiwan Investments in Selected ASEAN Countries In US$ Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam million (mfg. only)

7 Tourism from Taiwan to Selected ASEAN Countries In 000 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam

8 Why not FTA? ASEAN FTAs with: China Republic of Korea Japan India Australia and New Zealand US? (Lugar resolution) EU (Myanmar?) Strengthen preferential trade within ASEAN and with important trading partners

9 Why not FTA? FTAs essentially political documents: Statements of strong relations Signals to businesses on both sides Support for ASEAN integration ASEAN inter-governmental organisation Individually, all ASEAN countries adhere to one- China policy and refrain from undertaking official or inter-governmental interactions with Taiwan Will refrain from entering into FTA with Taiwan

10 Will Taiwan be left out of schemes to integrate Asian or Asia-Pacific economy w/o FTA with ASEAN? Not necessarily Taiwan economy actually integrating with those of neighbours even without FTA Taiwan member of APEC, WTO, ADB; now observer in WHO, possibly more Taiwan could and should engage with SE Asia in more ways other than official

11 Politicising Economic Relations Ironically, seeking to politicise Taiwan s external economic relations will harm efforts to expand diplomatic space Warning: proposals for combining security and economic issues in one umbrella architecture would sideline Taiwan, as well as Hong Kong

12 Do improving cross-straits relations make ASEAN-Taiwan official ties more logical? No: relations between mainland and Taiwan separate from Taiwan ties with external partners In any case, mainland now more economically, as well as politically, important than Taiwan ASEAN countries pursuing own national interests Welcome improving cross-straits relations as contributing to peace, stability in East Asia

13 What about Taiwanese desire for wider diplomatic space? ASEAN countries generally understand and are sympathetic to it Would generally welcome it but on basis of understanding between Beijing and Taipei Understanding would contribute to regional peace, stability

14 What can Taiwan do to engage with ASEAN without official ties? Encourage expansion of production chains in ASEAN countries; take part in AICO once benefits are clarified Take part in IAI and lower Mekong development Explore, primarily with Beijing, participation in CMIM Assist in cultural projects, like Angkor restoration Taiwan-funded ASEAN centre in Taipei? Informal ASEAN committee in Taipei? Expand understanding with Beijing, including: seeking observer status in more UN specialised agencies: e.g., ITU, UPU Further improve ties with mainland (two-way, of course)