IAG results presentation. Quarter Two st August 2014

Transcription

1 IAG results presentation Quarter Two st August 2014

2 Q2 financial summary OPERATING PROFIT 350m (pre-vueling, pre-exceptional items) 380m (reported) + 135m (reported change) TOTAL UNIT REVENUE -0.2% (pre-vueling, constant FX) -2.3% (constant FX) -3.7% (reported, 74m FX drag) PAX UNIT REVENUE +0.1% (pre-vueling, constant FX) -0.4% (constant FX) -1.8% (reported) TRAFFIC/CAPACITY ASKs: +6.3% (pre-vueling) ASKs: +10.8% (reported) RPKs: +10.0% (reported) TOTAL UNIT COST -3.3% (pre-vueling, constant FX) -4.8% (constant FX) -6.1% (reported, 65m FX benefit) EX-FUEL UNIT COST -2.5% (pre-vueling, constant FX) -4.4% (constant FX) -4.4% (reported) Q2 results Financial summary 2

3 Q2 operating profit drivers OPERATING PROFIT 350m (pre-vueling, pre-exceptional items) 380m (reported) + 135m (reported change) FX - 9m Q2 LfL + 148m Contribution to operating profit at constant FX Vueling - 4m Q2 results Operating profit 3

4 Q2 results Cost Ex-fuel cost Fuel Fleet Capacity plan Capacity changes Network ASK by region RASK by region Product Revenue Brands 4

5 Q2 ex-fuel unit cost: continued IB transformation EX-FUEL UNIT COST -2.5% (pre-vueling, constant FX) -4.4% (constant FX) -4.4% (reported) FX 0.0pts Q2 LfL -2.5% better worse Contribution to ex-fuel CASK at constant FX, % change Vueling -1.9pts Q2 cost Ex-fuel unit cost 5

6 Fuel: relatively stable spot price some tailwind Jet fuel price ($/mt) $1,000 $990 Key: $980 $970 $960 $950 $940 $930 $ % spot price $965/mt -3.0% -2.5% -1.3% -1.8% 80% 79% 65% 52% 69% hedge ratio Current spot / hedge blended price fuel price headwind Effective price last year post-hedge fuel price tailwind Current spot / hedge blended price $910 $900 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 next 12 mths 2014 fuel bill scenario - 6.0bn (at $965mt and 1.34$/ ) Q2 cost Fuel 6

7 Q2 results Cost Ex-fuel cost Fuel Fleet Capacity plan Capacity changes Network ASK by region RASK by region Product Revenue Brands 7

8 2014 capacity growth and contributions Capacity trim: Q4-14 Group capacity growth expected to move from +8.7% (as at May-14) to +5.8% BA: Q3-14 and FY2014 capacity planned to be +6.8% and +5.8% respectively Iberia: Q3-14 and FY2014 capacity planned to be +5.6% and +3.3% respectively Vueling: Q3-14 and FY2014 capacity planned to be +30.0% and +26.1% respectively 4.9% 8.0% 9.2% 5.8% 7.1% 3.7% 6.3% 6.5% 4.1% 5.2% Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q IAG (pro-forma: as if Vueling had been fully in the base) IAG LfL (BA + IB) Vueling contribution (reported) Iberia contribution BA contribution Vueling not in base effect Q2 fleet Capacity plan 8

9 Q3 changes: BA sector length, IB restored routes Network changes Like-for-like changes New routes for BA are Austin, LHR leisure destinations and new CityFlyer routes Restored routes for Iberia include Amsterdam, Montevideo, Istanbul, Santo Domingo, Berlin BA Q3-13 ASK +1.1pts new routes discontinued routes -0.4pts +3.3pts sector length +1.6pts aircraft gauge +1.2pts frequency /other +6.8% Q3-14 ASK Main discontinued BA route is Lusaka +5.6% BA frequency change driven by New York, Cape Town, and Seattle IB frequency change driven by Mexico City, Chicago and Panama City IB Q3-13 ASK +3.6pts restored routes discontinued routes -0.5pts +1.4pts sector length aircraft gauge -0.5pts +1.6pts frequency/ other Q3-14 ASK Q2 fleet Capacity changes 9

10 Q2 results Cost Ex-fuel cost Fuel Fleet Capacity plan Capacity changes Network ASK by region RASK by region Product Revenue Brands 10

11 Q2 capacity and passenger unit revenue change Domestic -0.1% Domestic -2.2% North America +5.1% Europe +7.7% North America +4.2% Europe -1.6% ASK +6.3% Asia Pacific +12.0% RASK +0.1% Asia Pacific -3.2% Latin America +3.7% AMESA +9.0% Pax RASK CFX Q % Q % Q % Q % Latin America -0.8% AMESA -1.0% IAG LfL excluding Vueling at constant FX vly Q2 network ASK & RASK by region 11

12 Q2 products: Easter, World Cup affect mix TOTAL UNIT REVENUE -0.2% (pre-vueling, constant FX) -2.3% (constant FX) -3.7% (reported, 74m FX drag) FX -1.4pts Q2 LfL -0.2% Contribution to RASK at constant FX, % change Vueling -2.1pts Q2 product Total unit revenue 12

13 Financial performance by brand Q ( m) vly Q ( m) vly Q ( m) vly Revenue 2, % 1, % % Cost 2, % 1, % % Operating result Operating margin 9.1% +2.0pts 1.5% +4.7pts 6.6% -0.2pts ASK (m) 43, % 13, % 7, % RPK (m) 35, % 10, % 5, % Sector length (kms) 3, % 2, % 1, % RASK % % % CASK % % % CASK ex-fuel % % % Employee cost per ASK % % % Q2 product Brand performance 13

14 Balance sheet 14

15 Balance sheet: gearing marginally down Excludes IAS 19 amendments Gross debt increase as result of new fleet deliveries in BA Cash: BA 2.5bn (Dec 13: 1.9bn), Iberia 0.8bn (Dec 13: 0.7bn), Vueling 0.8bn (Dec 13: 0.5bn) m Dec 2013 Jun 2014 Adjusted equity 5,772 6,126 Gross debt 5,122 5,673 Cash, cash equivalents & interest bearing deposits 3,633 4,904 On balance sheet net debt 1, Gearing 21% 11% Aircraft lease capitalisation (x8) 4,212 4,480 Adjusted net debt 5,701 5,249 Adjusted gearing 50% 46% Q2 results Balance sheet 15

16 Outlook

17 Current trading: no underlying change Short-haul Long-haul Non-premium Stable Stable Premium Stable Stable Cargo Stabilising Outlook Current trading 17

18 Guidance for FY2014 including Vueling Operating profit (base = 770m) Improvement of at least 500m Passenger unit revenue Ex-fuel unit cost flat down Reported, at current exchange rates Fuel bill scenario 6.0bn ($965/MT and 1.34$/ ) ASK +9.3% (reported) +7.1% (pro-forma) 18

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20 Short term seat capacity: major hubs, major markets Capacity growth peaking in Q3, then expected to decline in winter season 8.0% 7.0% Data based on Aug/Nov 2014 vs. Aug/Nov Source OAG, generic configurations 6.0% August 2014 seat growth 5.0% 4.0% November 2014 seat growth 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% NATL Short-haul NATL Short-haul NATL Short-haul NATL Short-haul LHR/MAD CDG/AMS FRA/MUC Main hubs Strategic update Capacity outlook 20

21 BA new fleet benefits starting to show through Change in fuel burn per ASK versus last year 0.5% 0.0% Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 A380/B787 effect (0.5%) (1.0%) (1.5%) Reduced efficiency due to training and proving flights (2.0%) Underlying efficiency (2.5%) Strategic update BA fleet 21

22 Vueling how growth capacity was allocated in Q2 New routes Q2 14 More than 90 new routes in Q2 14 vs last year, focusing on European markets and Italian domestic market New routes represent 7% of total ASKs in Q2 14 Reykjavík New routes Brest Nantes Cardiff Edinburgh TOTAL Amsterdam London Düsseldorf Aalborg Copenhaguen Brussels Dortmund Berlin Lille Frankfurt Dresden Luxemburg Leipzig Rennes Nuremburg Paris Stuttgart Praga Strasbourg Bergen % new/total Oslo # of routes % Stockholm Stavanger ASK (millions) 519 7,288 7% Hamburg Hannover Gothemburg Kaliningrad Warsaw Helsinki ASK Krakow new routes Tallinn Saint Petersburg Minsk % new routes Kiev Moscow Kazan Traffic performance of new routes is in line with expectations La Palma Tenerife Gran Canaria Lanzarote Banjul Casablanca Fuerteventura Zurich Munich Vienna Geneva A Coruña Bordeaux Italy 129 Budapest 25% Oviedo Lyon Santiago Santander Milan Zagreb Cluj Vigo San Torino Sebastian Toulouse Verona Venecia Bucharest Valladolid Bilbao Pamplona Genoa Belgrade Zadar Porto Marseille Benelux Bolonia % Nice Pisa Florencia Split Madrid Sofia Barcelona Lisbon Bastia Dubrovnik Marrakech Jerez Tanger Seville Fez Malaga Granada Nador Almeria Valencia Alicante Oran Ibiza Minorca Mallorca Algiers Rome Bari South OlbiaEurope 83 16% Naples Brindisi Cagliari Corfu Thessaloniki Palermo Lamezia Preveza Athens Others % Catania Tunis Zakynthos Mykonos Kos Santorini Rodas Malta TOTAL 519 Crete 100% Larnaca Beirut Erevan Dakar Tel Aviv Strategic update Vueling 22

23 IB union agreements - outline Productivity improvements Salary conditions Mediation Agreement (March 2013) Salary reduction (14% crew, 7% ground staff) and additional 4% if productivity not agreed Salaries frozen until 2015, after that date subject to profitability Follow-on agreement (Feb / March 2014) Crew flying hours in line with competitors Changes in crew composition More flexibility in shifts and schedules adapting to workloads for ground staff Overall increase in the # of duty days Salary reduction (14% crew, 7% ground staff) maintained Additional 4% cut returned Salaries remain frozen until 2015 Final agreement (July 2014) New pay scales Redundancy potential Other Exiting 258 pilots, 627 cabin crews, 2,256 ground staff Other exits and international: 526 Maintenance attrition: 367 Establishment of caps in seniority scales New entry level crew cost to company (e.g. 35k for SH pilots, 20k for cabin crew) Technical changes in calculating seniority and promotion levels Limits to promotion depending on skills No demarcation in maintenance Maintenance and handling: no segregation until 2015: after then subject to profitability IB Express can grow to 25 aircraft by 2017 Voluntary Plan for ground staff and pilots (1,427 employees) Strategic update Iberia 23

24 IB union agreements long term structural change Expected employee CASK savings (versus 2012) 0% -14% -20% -21% -23% -26% -28% -29% Strategic update Iberia 24

25 IB operational transformation: world-leading punctuality On time performance departures (15 %) Avg Avg % Avg % IB Express launch and strikes Avg % % Strikes Mediation Agreement and management change Follow-on agreements Jan11 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 1 March-December January-June 2014 Avg Avg % 96% Avg % Strategic update Iberia 25

26 IAG cargo - negative momentum is slowing 40% 30% 20% 10% CTK growth vly 0% -10% Yield growth at constant FX vly -20% -30% -40% Note Q volumes VLY adjusted for LH Freighter Change Strategic update Cargo 26

27 Steady progress towards 2015 financial targets Operating profit range , as originally presented at Capital Markets Day November bn FD EPS Economic growth in strategic markets Growth 1.5bn Transform London potential upside Remaining synergies 0.43 Transform London Transform Spain potential upside Improving performance through increased and retained unit revenues and margins bn Transform Spain second phase - Further Iberia agreements - Vueling potential - Spanish economic recovery? bn Strategic update Financial targets 27

28 Appendix

29 Disclaimer Certain statements included in this report are forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can typically be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, such as expects, may, will, could, should, intends, plans, predicts, envisages or anticipates and include, without limitation, any projections relating to results of operations and financial conditions of International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. and its subsidiary undertakings from time to time (the Group ), as well as plans and objectives for future operations, expected future revenues, financing plans, expected expenditures and divestments relating to the Group and discussions of the Group s Business plan. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information known to the Group on the date of this report. The Group undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could cause the forward-looking statements in this report to be incorrect or that could otherwise have a material adverse effect on the future operations or results of an airline operating in the global economy. Further information on the primary risks of the business and the risk management process of the Group is given in the Annual Report and Accounts 2013; these documents are available on

30 Contribution heat map how it works 1 Weighting of item in current P&L at constant FX FX - 9m 2 Each shading shows yoy change in 3% bands, with neutral being +/- 1%. Whole scale is +/- 10% Darker shades are outside range 3 Effective fuel price at constant currency decreased by 4-7% 30