Oil price determination: futures markets or fundamentals?
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1 Oil price determination: futures markets or fundamentals? David Long Oxford Petroleum Research Associates CGES Oil Price Seminar 18 October
2 Why are oil prices so high? What is driving oil prices up? $/bbl Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Source: Nymex, Opra
3 Not $/bbl High Low High Low High Low High Low Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Source: Nymex, Opra
4 Stock-price relationship broken WTI prices pre-2004 WTI prices post-2004 WTI price ($/barrel) Total US crude (mn barrels) Source: Nymex, EIA, Opra
5 affect shape of forward curve Backwardation origin: premium paid to buyer for delayed delivery prompt price above forward price of accessibility disincentive to hold no limit to backwardation Contango origin: charge paid by buyer for delayed payment prompt price below forward returns to storage incentive to hold limited by cost of storage $/barrel $/barrel WTI FORWARD CURVE 13 Sep 2007 Low Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 WTI FORWARD CURVE 18 Jan 2007 High Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: Nymex, Opra
6 so stock-spread relationship holds up WTI Mth1 - Mth12 ($/barrel) Backwardation WTI M1-M12 spreads pre-2004 WTI M1-M12 spreads post Contango Total US crude (mn barrels) Source: Nymex, EIA, Opra
7 1,100,000 Not speculators Open Interest (Contracts) 1,000, , ,000 0,000 0, , , , ,000 Long Short Commercial Market Growth Hedgers Speculators Shorts 189% 182% Longs 195% 165% Total open interest 202% Average Market Share Hedgers Speculators Shorts 63% 12% Longs 62% 15% Non-commercial WTI Nearby $/barrel 100,000 Non-reporting Source: CFTC, Nymex 0
8 speculators follow price trends 150, Net speculators ,000 WTI nearby 50,000 Contracts S/bbl -50, , , Source: CFTC, Nymex 0
9 Why are oil prices so high? Strong demand for transport fuels Downstream refinery bottlenecks Upstream supply rationing
10 mn b/d Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Aug-03 Oct Strong demand for transport fuels 14 large oil-consuming countries Average growth Transport fuels +2.4% Heating fuels -5.8% Need to upgrade Transport fuels Heating fuels Linear (Transport fuels) Linear (Heating fuels) Source: Argus Fundamentals
11 Downstream refinery bottlenecks % Refinery utilisation in US, EU, China, India, Singapore $/bl NW Europe crack spread * Unused distillation capacity * 211 crack spread = average gasoline/distillate less crude 0 Source: EIA, Euroilstock, IOC, Argus Fundamentals
12 Upstream supply rationing World crude output Oil price (WTI) December 2005 peak mn b/d Opec limits crude supply $/barrel 56 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Source: Argus Fundamentals, Nymex 0
13 Opec targets transport market Fundamentals force prices up OPEC supply Transport fuels Price rises to limit demand Saudi pricing rations crude Upgrading Insufficient supply Rising demand No easy substitutes Less price elastic Limited response to rising prices Non-OPEC supply Growing slower than demand CDU Spare capacity No spare capacity Lighter demand barrel Burning fuels Excess supply Falling demand Competing fuels More price elastic Price rises destroy demand
14 Jan Crack spreads widen Brent Gasoline Fuel oil Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-96 Jan-95 $/barrel
15 Saudi pricing rations crude $/bbl USGC refinery margins Sep 07 Jul 07 May 07 Mar 07 Jan 07 Nov 06 Sep 06 Jul 06 May 06 Mar 06 Jan 06 WTI - complex WTI - simple Arab Heavy - complex Arab Heavy - simple Source: Argus Global Markets, CGES
16 No equilibrium at $80/bbl Oil market is in permanent disequilibrium Refinery upgrading capacity is fully-utilised Distilling more crude creates surplus residue Residue competes with crude as a feedstock Saudi pricing policy rations crude supply so prices rise to limit transport fuel demand or prices fall to clear surplus heating fuel
17 The shape of the industry The basic feature of the petroleum industry is that it is not self-adjusting a price structure that allows for ups and downs which fail to bring relief from dearth or glut The problem of oil is that there is always too much or too little Paul Frankel, Essentials of Petroleum, 1946
18 Oil price determination: futures markets or fundamentals? David Long Oxford Petroleum Research Associates CGES Oil Price Seminar 18 October
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