A view on the European leasing market and vehicle theft. Bucharest November 2011

Transcription

1 A view on the European leasing market and vehicle theft Bucharest November 2011

2 The Role of Leasing in Europe Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing The European leasing market in 2011 Vehicle theft/fraud in the EU Leaseurope cooperation with EU contacts points Agenda

3 The Role of Leasing in Europe

4 The Role of Leasing in Europe In short Leaseurope represents ~93% of the European leasing market In turn representing more than finance leasing firms & more than 700 short term rental companies And at least employees Leaseurope represents bank-owned lessors, captives, automotive lessors, short term rental companies, independent lessors, real estate lessors etc. Source: Leaseurope 2010 Annual Survey

5 The Role of Leasing in Europe Results from Leaseurope s 2010 Annual Enquiry NEW VOLUMES Leaseurope Annual Survey Estimated TOTAL Market OUTSTANDINGS Leaseurope Annual Survey Estimated TOTAL Market Total Real Estate Movables 224 bil 30 bil 194 bil ~252 bil Total Real Estate Movables 674 bil 203 bil 445 bil ~767 bil Source: Leaseurope estimates, Leaseurope 2010 Annual Survey of European Leasing 30 member associations in 27 countries reporting, figures include hire purchase products when reported by member associations

6 The Role of Leasing in Europe % of SMEs using leasing (2011 & 2010) 50% 40% 40% 43% SME leasing market worth 100bn in 2010 (52% of total leasing to all European businesses) 30% 20% 10% 0% Micro Small Medium In 2010, 40.3% of SMEs used leasing versus 37.6% using a bank loan of over 3 years On average, SMEs which used leasing invest 53% more than nonusers Source: Survey on the use of leasing amongst European SMEs, Oxford Economics & Leaseurope, July 2011

7 The Role of Leasing in Europe Share of total investment financed by leasing (2010) > 25 % 20% to 25% 15% to 20% 12.9% 10% to 15% < 10 % NA Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate) Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat

8 The Role of Leasing in Europe Share of equipment investment financed by leasing (2010) > 25 % 20% to 25% 15% to 20% Equipment 18.8% 10% to 15% < 10 % NA Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate) Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat

9 The Role of Leasing in Europe Leaseurope s weight in the car sector (2010) Cars financed/purchased Leasing ST rental Total PR units of which: % new cars business use 80% 62% (bil) Portfolio/fleet Leasing ST rental Total PR units % Based on figures reported in the 2010 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations

10 European Leasing Market in 2010 Annual growth of new leasing volumes per country (2009/2010) Over 10% 5 to 10% 0 to 5% -10 to - 0% Members not reporting & non - members -20 to - 10% Under - 20% > New leasing volume growth diverges across European regional boundaries Growth rates are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope 2010 Annual Survey

11 European Leasing Market CEE leasing market - new volume growth (% YoY) 60% 40% 20% 0% 2.1% 2.1% % -40% -60% Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year (CZ, EE, HU, PL, RO, SK, SI) & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations for From 2007 onwards growth rates are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations. Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

12 Individual CEE market growth (2009 vs 2010) CEE Leasing Market in % (2010) CEE region 2.1% Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope 2009 and 2010 Annual Surveys

13 Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing

14 Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing Evolution of the European leasing market New business, annual % change Lehman Brothers collapsed European GDP by -4.3% in 2009 % YoY 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% GDP by 1.8% in % 4.6% 3.1% -25% -35% Total volumes Real Estate Equipment incl. vehicles bil 29.5 bil bil Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations from 2007 onwards Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

15 Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing New equipment leasing volumes vs. equipment investment (2007) 35% % change in equipment investment 25% 15% 5% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% -5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% -15% -25% -35% % change in new leasing volumes for equipment Size of bubble = size of equipment leasing market ( ) DE UK FR IT MED. Benelux, AT & CH CEE Nordic New leasing volumes for equipment include vehicles Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

19 New car leasing volumes vs. car penetration rate (2007) Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing 60% Car penetration rate 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% % change in new leasing volumes for cars Size of bubble = # of new cars leased DE UK FR IT MED. Benelux, AT & CH CEE Nordic Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys. Based on a homogeneous sample of 26 members reporting

23 Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing Leased assets Total new lease volumes per asset category, % 18% % 18% Real estate Machines & equip CVs Cars 16% % 16% ICT 32% 12% 6% Big/other 40% 8% 7% 50% Automotive 56% Automotive Source: 2010 & 2007 Annual Surveys. Based on a homogeneous sample of 26 members reporting

24 Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing Leasing clients New movables leasing volumes by client sector, % % 3% 4% 78% Businesses Public sector 18% 4% 2% 76% % movable leasing volumes Other Consumers % movable leasing volumes Source: 2010 & 2007 Annual Surveys. Based on a homogeneous sample of 19 members reporting

25 European Leasing Market in 2011

26 European Leasing Market in 2011 New lease volumes per asset type % YoY (H1 2011/ H1 2010) Equipment Vehicles 20% Total 20% Real estate Movables 25% 20% 15% 10% 10.1% 15% 10% 11.2% 15% 10% 10.5% 11.3% 5% 5% 1.9% 5% 0% 0% 0% -5% -5% -5% -10% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -15% -20% Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: 2011 Biannual Survey based on 27 members reporting Data for BE and the NL do not split between equipment and vehicles If figures for the newest Member Association, the ULA in Russia, are excluded, equipment volumes grew by 0,8% and vehicle volumes by 10,1%

27 European Leasing Market in 2011 Regional performance by asset category New business growth - annual % change (H1 2011/ H1 2010) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% MED. IT Nordic AT, BE, NL & CH Equipment Vehicles UK FR DE CEE* Real estate Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: 2011Biannual Survey based on 27 members reporting Data for BE and the NL do not split between equipment and vehicles *If figures for the newest Member Association, the ULA in Russia, are excluded, equipment volumes grew by 40.1% and vehicle volumes by 23.9%

28 European Leasing Market in 2011 Country performance by asset category CEE cluster New business growth - annual % change (H1 2011/ H1 2010) Equipment Vehicles Real estate Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: 2011Biannual Survey

29 Vehicle theft/fraud in the EU

30 Current situation 2008: vehicles stolen Europol no longer consolidates pan-european data Criminal gains: 3.86 billion Community cost: 15 billion/year Recovery percentage: dropped to 50% in 2008, from 70% in 2006

31 Modi operandi to avoid detection of stolen car Selling vehicles in MS which are not systematically checking VIN before registration Forging the VIN by changing some characters Using registration document and VIN of a similar vehicle (clone) Using registration document and VIN of wrecked/scrapped vehicle

32 Recommendation: Mandatory check of origin Administrative control (nat. Databases check, authenticity of documentation Technical control (VIN and engine nr.) Other obligations (immediate police notification in case fraud is suspected)

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35 Leaseurope cooperation with EU Contact Points for Vehicle Crime

36 Background In 2004 the Council decided to establish National Contact Points in all the Member States focused on tacking vehicle crime with cross-border implications the National Contact Points are in a position to draft Presidency proposals for consideration of the European Commission s Police Working Party, and Law Enforcement Working Party.

37 Cooperative initiatives Leaseurope initiated cooperation with EU Contact Points in Q Feedback expected in Q regarding harmonised certificate authorising drivers to leave a defined geographical area Leaseurope supports initiative provided that: The service is available in a substantial part of the Member State The certificates issued are harmonized as much as possible The necessary training is provided to law enforcement officials and border guards

38 Mileage fraud Leaseurope participated in Cars2010 conference Signed declaration calling for mileage registration database systems to be developed across Europe EC to tackle milage fraud in new PTI Directive Considerable interest in European Parliament

39 Bucharest November 2011