A time of crisis, a time for change Revitalizing the International Financial System

Transcription

1 A time of crisis, a time for change Revitalizing the International Financial System United Nations 64 th General Assembly Economic and Financial Second Committee Special Event, 30 October 2009

2 Crisis Unexpected? A crisis foretold Unsustainable global imbalances International financial architecture: non-system? Ideology: deregulation, self-regulation, inadequate and inappropriate regulation capital account liberalization Financial Globalization: growth, stability? Developing countries innocent victims Policy responses: inadequate; double standards International cooperation: G7, G20, BWIs, UN

3 Global imbalances ballooned USD bn 1000 Latin America 800 Other industrialised Other Asia 600 China Japan 400 Oil exporters United States Euro Area Central and Eastern 3 Europe

4 Then narrow with deflation 600 United States Japan Billion US$ European Union Developing countries (excl China) and EiT China 4

5 Net capital importers Capital Importers Ot her s 20% Tur key 3% Gr eece 3% Italy 3% Australia 3% U. K. 9% Spai n 9% U. S. 5

6 US macro-financial policies International monetary + financial non-system Prolonged loose macroeconomic policies Laxfinancial regulation + policies LowUS savings rate US over-consumption, E Asian surpluses US, UK economic hubris

7 Pyramid of finance! 964% of World GDP Derivatives 78% of Total 138% of World GDP 122% of World GDP Securitized Debt Broad Money 11% of Total 10% of Total 9% of World GDP Power Money 1% of Total 7

8 Globalization: finance>trade US$ Trillions As percent of GDP, indices 1980= Global financial assets Global merchandise trade )Global financial assets as a percentage of GDP (right axis )Global merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP (right axis 8

9 Finance-investment nexus? Gross Fixed Capital Formation Gross Financial Investment Abroad

10 Financial globalization Net capital flows from South to North (US largest borrower) Cost of funds not generally lower due to financial deepening (more intermediation, financial rents) Higher volatility Lower growth, higher instability

11 Net transfer of financial resources from South to North 200 B illio n s o f U S d o llars Developing economies Africa Eastern and Southern Asia Western Asia Latin America

12 Short-term capital inflows problematic No real contribution to investment, growth rates Asset (shares, real estate) price + related (e.g. construction) bubbles instead Cheaper finance for consumption binges Over-investment excess capacity All exacerbate instability, pro-cyclicality

13 Financial impacts on developing countries Despite non-involvement in sub-prime debacle: Emerging stock markets collapse greater Reversal of capital flows, FDI also down Spreads rise, much higher borrowing costs But financial positions stronger than during Asian + LA crises (more foreign reserves, better fiscal balances) But reserves rapidly evaporating with export collapse; fiscal space also disappearing 13

14 Credit crunch: US, EU Percentage of lenders tightening standards, by size of enterprise seeking loans Panel A: United States Panel B: European Union Large and Medium Small Small & Medium Large Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

15 Borrowing costs remain high Africa Asia Latin America Europe Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09

16 Dollar volatility continues Yen/US$ Euro/US$ Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09

17 Dollar volatility, June June Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Yen/$ (LHS) Euro/$ (RHS)

18 Contagion: crisis spreads Financial sector contagion (incl. vicious circles): Sub-prime crisis financial crisis asset price deflation liquidity/credit crunch Financial crisis Economic recession (including feedback loops) Real economy contagion (incl. vicious circles): Less investment, especially abroad (FDI) Less consumption Reduced demand for imports, i.e. for exports of others Prices, output declines globally Growth, employment declines globally 18

19 Deflationary spiral Asset (stock, property) markets deflating negative wealth effect more bank insolvency generalized credit squeeze Lower external demand, world trade excess capacity investment slowdown Depressed domestic demand lower prices, output rices, output lower employment, incomes

20 Globalization: Parallel fates 8 6 Developing countries World Developed countries -2-4 Preliminary, revised forecast (P) 20

21 Growth by main country groups Per capita GDP growth rate / 2008 Change in growth rate 2009/ World Developed economies Economies in transition Developing economies LDCs

22 60 developing countries will see declining incomes in Developed countries Economies in transition Developing countries

23 Trade impacts: summary Exports decline all developing countries Terms of trade primary exporters Trade surpluses, reserves run down quickly But lower energy, food prices helped net food and oil importers 23

24 Aid flows unreliable 8% LDCs 7% 6% 5% 4% Sub-Saharan Africa 3% 2% 1% Other LICs 0%

25 ODA for Africa vs G20 recovery efforts Billion US Dollar G-20 total commitment G-20 fiscal stimulus, 2009 ODA to Africa,

26 Net aid transfers? Net ODA is net of principal payments, but not of interest received on such loans Net Aid Transfer (NAT) is net of both Japan recently received >$2bn/year in interest on ODA loans NAT excludes cancellation of old non-oda loan, e.g. a 2003 Paris Club agreement cancelled some $5bn in non-oda official debt owed. That cancellation is ODA, but generated little additional net transfers, ie. NAT Hence, e.g. DRC received $5.4bn in ODA in 2003, but only $400m. in NAT

27 Remittances to developing countries declining Historically, remittances to home countries in crisis rise However, migrant workers in host countries now most adversely hit by job losses, lower incomes Evidence uneven for different migrant workers by home country, host country, crisis impact

28 Policy priorities Contain spread of financial crisis - Across borders (contagion) - To real economy (ensuring liquidity) Reflate economy - Fiscal measures (fiscal space needed) - Monetary measures (monetary space) Appropriate regulatory reform - National - International 28

29 New Bretton Woods moment? Bretton Woods, 1944: United Nations conference on monetary + financial affairs 15 years after 1929 Depression Middle of WW2 US initiative vs UK Treasury stance 44 countries (28 developing countries; 19 LA) UN system: IMF, IBRD, ITO Clear emphasis on sustaining growth, job creation, post-war reconstruction, postcolonial development, not just financial stability

30 International responses UN, BIS forecasts more accurate than others; IMF, WB upbeat till late 2008 IMF, WB also marginalized by G7, etc IMF discouraging strong fiscal stimulus by developing countries without surplus G7 G20: more inclusive; legitimate? crisis-management, but neither developmental nor equitable June 2009 summit on crisis + impact on developing countries UN 63PGA (Stiglitz) Experts Commission

31 Constraints on developing country responses IMF imposes fiscal requirements for stimulus IMF: developing country efforts likely to fail Policy -- especially fiscal -- space constrained Monetary policy less effective, worse with independent central banks, fiscal authority Systemic, market, institutional pro-cyclicality Lost productive capacities due to openness 31

32 Systemic reform agenda Ensure macro-financial stability with counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies + prudential risk management, including capital controls Finance growth (output, employment) with developmental financial system Ensure inclusive financial system -- NEW Monterrey policy coherence: Align IMF, WB with UN development agenda, IADGs UN: universal, legitimate lead comprehensive reform process?

33 Major Institutional Recommendations 1 Global Economic Coordination Council democratically representative G-20 /L27 include UN system chief executives and Heads of Government coordinate international adjustment of imbalances International Expert Panel Patterned after Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Provide Independent advice on international policy issues

34 Major Institutional Recommendations 2 New Financing Facility within or outside IFIs new, more representative governance Voice + representation reform in IFIs New International Reserve Currency reserve accumulation offsets stimulus to provide symmetrical adjustment to international imbalances

35 Other Proposed Institutions International Debt Restructuring Court Independent of IMF (unlike DRM proposal) Replace World Bank s ICSID Foreign Debt Commission Intergovernmental Commission on Tax Cooperation Multilateral Regulations International Tax Compact Global Financial Authority New Policy Surveillance Mechanism Independent of IMF Support national capital account management

36 Thank you Please visit UN-DESA and G24 websites Research papers Policy briefs Other documents Acknowledgements: UN-DESA, ILO 36