The role of the G20. Central Bank of Argentina. Miguel Angel Pesce Deputy Governor, BCRA CEMLA. Cartagena, Colombia. 5-6 May 2011

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1 The role of the G20 Central Bank of Argentina Miguel Angel Pesce Deputy Governor, BCRA CEMLA. Cartagena, Colombia. 5-6 May 2011

2 Agenda Agenda 1. G20 Objectives for 2011 a) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination b) Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth c) International Monetary System Reform (IMS) d) Study Group on Commodities e) Reform of Financial Market Regulations 2

3 Agenda Agenda 1. G20 Objectives for 2011 a) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination b) Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth c) International Monetary System Reform (IMS) d) Study Group on Commodities e) Reform of Financial Market Regulations 3

4 The world economic recovery continues, more or less as predicted. However, the velocity of the expansion differs between advanced and emerging and developing economies. Real GDP (percent change y/y) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination 4

5 Macroeconomic Policy Coordination The IMF's growth projections are stable compared with the estimates of last October y.o.y. % chg. 9 8 Selected economies. Real GDP (2011) oct-10 forecast apr-11 forecast Source: IMF World Advanced economies Emerging economies United States Eurozone Japan Emerging Europe Emerging Asia Latin America 5

6 Macroeconomic Policy Coordination The IMF corrected upward inflation forecasts for the majority of economies, mainly due to the persistent rise in raw material prices y.o.y. % chg. 8 Selected economies. CPI (2011) oct-10 forecast apr-11 forecast Source: IMF World Advanced economies Emerging economies United States -0.3 Eurozone Japan Emerging Europe Emerging Asia Latin America 6

7 G20 Group s Objectives G20 Group s Objectives for 2011 French Presidency 1. International Monetary System Reform: To strengthen the International Monetary System. 2. Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth: To address the issue of sustainability of global imbalances within this framework of mutual economic assessment. 3. Commodities: To mitigate the excessive volatility of commodity prices. 4. Reform of Financial Market Regulations To strengthen the new approach of domestic and overseas financial regulation under FSB coordination 7

8 Agenda Agenda 1. G20 Objectives for 2011 a) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination b) Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth c) International Monetary System Reform d) Study Group on Commodities e) Reform of Financial Market Regulations 8

9 Framework Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Objetives In this 2 nd year of the Framework Working Group, the aim is to supplement the mutual assessment process among countries with a two-steps external sector sustainability analysis, with the technical assistance from the IMF. Background In the first step, it were agreed a set of indicators (public debt/gdp, fiscal deficit/gdp, private savings/gdp, private debt/gdp, trade balance/gdp, net external balance/gdp and balance of income and transfers/gdp) and indicative guidelines that establish reference values for each indicator o ratio. Those countries that surpass the reference values have to be examined in the second step. In this first step, the four approaches used to determine which countries go to the 2 nd stage analysis are the following: a) A structural approach, based on economic models that take into account the particular circumstances of each country. b) Three statistical approaches: time series, cross-section and inter-quartile ranges. 9

10 Framework Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Background (cont ) Those countries identified by at least two of the four approaches as having persistent and large imbalances will be assessed in depth in the second step in order to determine the nature and root of their imbalances and to identify the problems that impede to reach an equilibrium. This assessment will be carried out considering countries' exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks. In the second step of the assessment, the independent IMF analysis will rely on its forecast data, while countries own assessment can use national data. It was agreed that larger countries (those accounting for more than 5% of G20 total GDP) will be analyzed in the second step, due to their greater potential of spillover effects to the rest of the global economy. Countries that will be assessed in the second step are: Germany, China, the USA, France, India, Japan, the United Kingdom and the European Union as a whole (as it was requested by the EU). 10

11 Agenda Agenda 1. G20 Objectives for 2011 a) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination b) Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth c) International Monetary System Reform d) Study Group on Commodities e) Reform of Financial Market Regulations 11

12 Reform of the IMS International Monetary System Reform Objectives The Working Group will explore ways to strengthen the International Monetary System (IMS) in a number of key areas that would include, but not be limited to: (i) Actions to improve the management of capital flows: it would include the issues of macroprudential measures, capital controls, and issuance of debt in local currency. (ii) Actions to improve the management of global liquidity, in times of crises and in normal times, that would include the issues of foreign reserve management, financial safety nets, and the role of the SDR. The Working Group is co-chaired by Germany and Mexico. There are two sub-working groups. a) capital flows management (Germany and Brazil) b) global liquidity management (Mexico and France) The final recommendations will be presented to Deputies in time for their consideration ahead of the last 2011 G20 Finance Ministers and Central Banks Governors meeting 12

13 Background IMS Reform International Monetary System Reform In the Ministries of Finance and Central Bank Governors Meeting it was agreed to strengthen the international monetary system focusing on: a) assessing recent developments in the global liquidity, b) a country analysis regarding the drivers of foreign reserve accumulation, c) a strengthened coordination to avoid disorderly movements and persistent exchange rates misalignments, d) a criteria-based path to broaden the basket composition of the SDR, e) to improve the measures and tools to strengthen the global financial safety nets, f) enhanced cooperation between the IMF and regional financial arrangements, g) the development of domestic capital markets and domestic currency lending, h) coherent conclusions for the management of capital flows drawn on each country s experiences. i) considering country's experiences, to reach consensus on consistent management of capital flows. 13

14 IMS Reform International Monetary System Reform Issues for discussion: Capital Flows Management Capital flows should be differentiated between short term financial and the other type of flows. Emerging Markets countries have large experience in how short-term capital flows could affect negatively these economies and reduce degree of freedom for implementing sound macroeconomic policies. Empirical evidence shows that excessive capital inflows are associated with: a) Exchange rate misalignments, b) Booms of consumption and domestic lending, and current account deficits, c) Excessive growth of short-term external debt, d) Asset bubbles, etc. 14

15 IMS Reform International Monetary System Reform Issues for discussion: Capital Flows Management (cont ) Sudden stops of capital flows can trigger disruptive exchange rate jumps with severe consequences on economic activity and employment. We must also consider that given the magnitudes of global capital flows, to a great extent they are governed by push factors outside the receptor country. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account monetary conditions in advanced economies in the analysis. Given the uncertainty about the persistence of current monetary conditions in the world, it seems more appropriate to consider those flows as temporary rather than permanent. Therefore, while a more satisfactory international monetary system for the EMEs is to established, it is important to design and implement regulations to short-term capital flows. 15

16 IMS Reform International Monetary System Reform Issues for Discussion: Surveillance In the working group on reform of SMI, we are discussing the role of the IMF in relation to surveillance. So far, we have seen an asymmetrical treatment against EMEs. Surveillance issues are more associated to EMEs than to Advanced Economies. For example, topics such as the regulation of capital flows, the adequacy of reserve accumulation or exchange rate management and transparency, are mainly related to the EMEs. We consider that the proposal to improve surveillance must keep a balance between advanced and emerging economies. It is essential to include the monitoring of monetary policy in advanced economies and their side effects as a main determinant of financial capital flows and the policy responses in the EMEs. Only by taking this more comprehensive approach can be obtained an appropriate framework to evaluate and implement a coherent surveillance of the IMS Finally, we believe that surveillance in the context of the G-20 should remain a countryled process. 16

17 IMS Reform International Monetary System Reform Article VI - Capital Transfers Section 3. Controls of capital transfers Members may exercise such controls as are necessary to regulate international capital movements, but no member may exercise these controls in a manner which will restrict payments for current transactions or which will unduly delay transfers of funds in settlement of commitments, except as provided in Article VII, Section 3(b) and in Article XIV, Section 2. 17

18 Agenda Agenda 1. G20 Objectives for 2011 a) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination b) Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth c) International Monetary System Reform d) Study Group on Commodities e) Reform of Financial Market Regulations 18

19 G20 Study Group on Commodities G20 Study Group (SG) on Commodities Objectives The aim of the working group is to conduct a fact-finding exercise based on member contributions in order to understand: a) the trends and drivers of commodity price fluctuations; b) their consequences for growth, income distribution, price stability, financial stability as well as for the design of G.-20 policies (including monetary policy). The working group will send a final report by July This report, by providing in-depth analysis and setting out broad policy implications, will be the background for subsequent policy discussions carried out by Deputies and Ministers. Besides G-20 country members, international organizations such as BIS, IMF, IOSCO, OECD, FAO, UN and WB participate in the working groups. 19

20 G20 Study Group on Commodities G20 Study Group (SG) on Commodities Background Te issue of commodity prices has taken an important place in international agenda. The Leader s Statement of Pittsburg Summit brought this issue into the G20 discussions and during French presidency it has increased its importance. In the inaugural address, Mr. Sarkozy asserted that volatility of commodities prices (mainly food) and the instability of international monetary system are the most urgent items of this year agenda. In different international forum included the G-20 many topics related to commodities are discussed: the necessity to increase market transparency, some regulatory measures on stocks, prices and financial agents activity and also to urge commodity-exporting countries to abolish quantitative export restrictions. In April 2011, the G20 Communiqué recognized the necessity of increasing formalized powers to public sector interventions in derivative commodity markets when market abuses and manipulation occur. 20

21 G20 Study Group on Commodities G20 Study Group (SG) on Commodities Issues to be discussed Before analyzing any global regulation of commodity markets (which are mainly encouraged by advanced countries), it should be recognized that contrary to the common belief that commodity prices have reached currently historical high levels, long-run perspective shows stagnant or decaying prices if we incorporate into the analysis the world inflation (oil is the exception to this behavior). Considering the period , we see that even after the last boom of prices, real food prices are far below of their 1960 level (-45%). The metal price index has shown a better performance recently, but it has just reached its 1960 s level. 21

22 Agenda Agenda 1. G20 Objectives for 2011 a) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination b) Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth c) International Monetary System Reform d) Study Group on Commodities e) Reform of Financial Market Regulations 22

23 Reform of Financial Market Regulations Reform of Financial Market Regulations Framework for systemic important financial institutions (SIFIs): The BCBS is developing a proposal on global systemically important banks (G- SIBs). This implies: a) Their identification, b) Determining the capital surcharge; The main responsibility in identifying G-SIBs will correspond to the FSB; The capital surcharge, that will be complemented with other tools specifically geared towards G-SIBs, is still under analysis design and includes: a) More intense supervision b) Resolution framework for distressed G-SIBs c) Restrictions to some activities d) Additional liquidity requirements e) Levies The framework for SIBs (local or regional systemic banks) remains to be defined 23

24 Reform of Financial Market Regulations Reform of Financial Market Regulations Shadow Banking Organized group of activities structured outside the regular banking system that perform bank-like functions. These activities are interlinked with the regular banking system and could have an impact on global financial stability. OTC derivatives and commodities market reforms At the initiative of the FSB, a working group led by representatives of IOSCO, CPSS and the European Commission issued the document Implementing OTC Derivatives Market Reforms. Convergence towards more robust accounting standards Leaders committed to develop a uniform number of accounting standards. FASB and IASB have been entitled to achieve this goal by June

25 Reform of Financial Market Regulations Reform of Financial Market Regulations Consumer finance protection The FSB, in collaboration with the OECD and other international organizations, will take study international lessons and existing gaps in order to develop common principles on consumer protection in the field of financial services. Principles to reduce reliance on credit rating agency (CRA) ratings The FSB, in consultation with other regulators international standard setters, has developed high-level principles to reduce reliance on credit rating agency (CRA) ratings. The goal of these principles is to reduce the effects from CRA ratings that could amplify procyclicality and cause systemic disruption. Establishment of regional groups The G20 Leaders called on the FSB to expand upon and formalize its outreach activities beyond the membership of the G-20 to reflect the global nature of our financial system. 25

26 Reform of Financial Market Regulations Reform of Financial Market Regulations Financial stability issues with particular interest to emerging market and developing economies The work will focus on the management of capital flows and foreign exchange risks currency mismatch, prudential oversight of foreign financial institutions and home-host supervision, strengthening commerce financing and domestic capital markets. Promoting global adherence to regulatory and supervisory standards on international cooperation and information exchange with the aim at: Evaluate the global adherence to relevant standards based on FSAP evaluations, if available, or any other relevant information. Establish criteria to identify non-cooperative jurisdictions. Procedures for the evaluation process based and complementary to the FSAP. Measures to promote adherence to the standards and information exchange between jurisdictions. 26

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