The Netherlands Avg. growth 6.0% Germany Avg. growth 5.3% Switzerland Avg. growth 4.

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1 Forecast scheduled passengers between main European countries and Middle East, The most rapid growth between Middle East, Asia/Pacific and main European countries will take place in The Nerlands. Note : Traffic figures are in million annual passengers. Growth rates are average annual figures. United Kingdom Avg. growth 5.6% France Avg. growth 5.4% The Nerlands Avg. growth 6.0% Germany Avg. growth 5.3% Switzerland Avg. growth 4.6% Source : IATA analysis Spain Avg. growth 5.3% MIDDLE EAST & ASIA/PACIFIC Italy Avg. growth 3.2% Asia/Pacific The most important market : The UK was and will remain largest market, followed by Germany and France. New airport development : In Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Korea indicate potential for future growth in Asia. Page 22

2 Main -pairs within Europe in 1998 Main -pairs within Europe in terms passengers in Note : Traffic figures are in millions and include both scheduled and charter traffic. Source : IATA analysis UK-Spain was largest -pair in 1998 : Closely followed by Germany-Spain. Both se markets have a high percentage leisure traffic. UK-France and UK-Germany were next largest -pairs : Traffic between UK and France has been negatively impacted by increased usage Channel Tunnel. Page 23

3 Main city-pairs within Europe in 1998 Main city-pairs within Europe in terms passengers in 1998 ARN 1.2 EDI 1.5 CPH DUB 1.9 LHR 2.1 AMS 1.9 CDG ORY Note : figures are in million passengers MAD 2.2 TLS 3.1 LIN 2.2 NCE MRS BCN FCO Source : IATA analysis The largest city-pair is between Madrid and Barcelona : This route represents annually 3.1 million passengers. Over past 5 years it has experienced an annual growth 7.1%. The second largest route is between Milan (LIN) and Rome (FCO) with a 1.2% annual growth over past five years. The main city-pair from previous forecast was London-Paris : This route has been negatively impacted by opening Channel Tunnel. The number passengers has reduced from 2.9 million in 1996 to 1.9 million in Page 24

4 The impact Channel Tunnel on intra-european air services The opening Channel Tunnel has impacted more on passenger ferries than airlines. % passenger movements Market share Passenger movements to/from United Kingdom and Europe* 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source : Air-CAA Sea-DETR 9.9% 16.7% 17.3% 21.6% Channel Tunnel Sea Air Note : Channel Tunnel opened in Nov 1994 * Europe in this context includes countries France, Belgium, Nerlands, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Or Scandinavia. Almost one third passenger movements between United Kingdom and neighboring European countries used Channel Tunnel in This share is forecast to continue increasing, with passenger ferry sector being hardest hit. Market share passenger movements to/from United Kingdom and France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Nerlands and Germany 100% 15.2% 90% 24.6% 25.8% 32.5% 80% % passenger movements 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source : Air-CAA Sea-DETR Page 25 Channel Tunnel Sea Air

5 Main European airports in 1998 Eight airports in Europe recorded over 20 million passengers in Main European airports in terms total int l & domestic passengers in 1998 London-Heathrow Frankfurt Paris-CDG Amsterdam London-Gatwick Madrid-Barajas Rome Paris-Orly Munich Zurich Source: ACI Annual passengers (millions) The largest European airport is London-Heathrow (LHR) : Both London-Heathrow and Frankfurt are technically full, with little potential for furr growth (subject to Terminal 5 inquiry at LHR). Over next few years it is expected that passenger traffic at Paris-Charles de Gaulle (CDG) will significantly increase : In contrast to LHR and Frankfurt, CDG does not have capacity constraints. Due to capacity constraints at Hamburg : Lufthansa are developing Munich as a secondary hub. Alitalia are also developing Milan Malpensa as a secondary European hub. Air Traffic Control congestion : This is most critical problem facing European airlines over forecast period. The underlying problem remains continuing lack a uniform, co-ordinated European air traffic control system. As a result, upward trend in number delayed flights, and length flight delays, seems certain to continue. Page 26

6 The importance transfer passengers at main European airports in 1998 The number transfer passengers at Frankfurt and London- Heathrow in 1998 was larger than total number passengers at airports such as Munich or Zurich. Relative size transfer passengers at some European airports in 1998 Annual passengers (millions) million 20.6 million 14.6 million 14.3 million Transfer passengers Local passengers 0.0 London-LHR Frankfurt Paris-CDG Amsterdam London-LGW Madrid Rome Paris-Orly Munich Zurich Manchester Copenhagen Dusseldorf Milan-Linate Vienna Geneva Source: Airport authorities Transfer passengers : Represent close to 50% total passenger traffic at airports such as Frankfurt and Amsterdam. This percentage is much lower for secondary airports such as Geneva and Milan-Linate. Airports such as Munich, are showing a steady increase in number transfer passengers : In 1993 transfer passengers represented 18% total traffic. In 1998 transfer passengers represented 28%. This is a direct consequence Lufthansa developing a secondary hub in Munich, as a response to capacity constraints at Frankfurt. Page 27

7 Growth at large airports versus secondary airports in selected European countries Share passenger seat capacity at key hub airports is reducing. International scheduled seating capacity from main and secondary airports (%) United United Kingdom Kingdom London London (LHR+LGW) (LHR+LGW) 83.9% 83.9% 80.0% 80.0% 74.6% 74.6% 16.1% 16.1% 20.0% 20.0% 25.4% 25.4% Germany Germany Frankfurt Frankfurt (FRA) (FRA) 51.6% 51.6% 49.5% 49.5% 43.5% 43.5% 48.4% 48.4% 50.5% 50.5% 56.5% 56.5% France France Paris Paris (CDG+ORY) (CDG+ORY) 79.6% 79.6% 83.0% 83.0% 78.6% 78.6% 20.4% 20.4% 17.0% 17.0% 21.4% 21.4% Spain Spain Madrid Madrid (MAD) (MAD) 52.3% 52.3% 46.8% 46.8% 40.5% 40.5% 47.7% 47.7% 53.2% 53.2% 59.5% 59.5% Italy Italy Milan&Rome Milan&Rome (FCO+LIN+MXP) (FCO+LIN+MXP) 91.6% 91.6% 79.9% 79.9% 75.8% 75.8% 8.4% 8.4% 20.1% 20.1% 24.2% 24.2% Nerlands Nerlands Amsterdam Amsterdam (AMS) (AMS) N/A N/A 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% N/A N/A 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Source : BACK Associates The share passenger seat capacity at main hub airports has decreased in all main European countries between 1994 and 1998, except in Nerlands where share seat capacity at Amsterdam remained at 97%. The capacity constraints : Several main airports/hubs are experiencing severe capacity constraints which has forced flag carriers to develop secondary hubs. For example, Air France has developed two secondary hubs (Lyon and Marseilles) andas previously mentioned Lufthansa has developed Munich. Direct Routes : Several new direct services are now being fered from secondary airports. Flag carriers effectively deploy mid-size aircraft to avoid congested hubs and provide better frequency service. Page 28

8 Main European airlines in 1998 Eight European airlines recorded over 10 million passengers in There were 6 European airlines in world top ten in Main European airlines - total passengers in 1998 Lufthansa British Airways Air France Alitalia Iberia SAS KLM Swissair Sabena Britannia Airways Annual Passengers (millions) Source: WATS 99 / IATA Lufthansa and British Airways : Remain Europe s two largest carriers. Of large carriers, Air France has shown strongest growth. In 1993, it was ranked seventh in list main European airlines and is third in (Air Inter was acquired by Air France in 1997). Sabena : Is now one top ten European airlines. An important part Sabena s growth is due to development Brussels airport as a key European hub. Britannia Airways maintained its top ten position in 1998 : The airline relies upon carrying inclusive tour traffic and leisure passengers whereas or carriers in top ten transport a mix business and leisure. Page 29

9 Growth for national airlines versus or airlines at main European countries Relative importance international scheduled seating provided by main base airline versus or airlines British Airways Or airlines United Kingdom % % % % Lufthansa Or airlines Germany % % % % Air France Or airlines France % % % % Among main European countries, market share national airline, expressed in scheduled capacity, was highest for Nerlands, followed by Italy and United Kingdom. Iberia Or airlines Spain % % % % Alitalia Or airlines Italy % % % % KLM Or airlines Nerlands % % % % Source : BACK Associates Except for Air France and British Airways : All flag carriers have seen a decline in market share. This is due in part to deregulation, which has encouraged growth regional carriers. KLM saw a considerable decrease in market share : This confirms Amsterdam as a major transfer airport for airlines or than KLM, e.g KLM s major alliance partner Northwest Airlines. Page 30

10 Impact low-cost carriers in Europe The emergence low-cost carriers is a major feature European aviation scene since last forecast. Year Year commenced commenced operations operations Current short-haul Current short-haul fleet fleet (no. (no. aircraft) aircraft) No. European No. European destinations destinations Nov Nov European departure seats European departure seats (000 s) (000 s) per per week week Jan-98 Jan-98 Nov-99 Nov-99 easyjet easyjet Nov Nov Ryanair Ryanair Go Go Mid Mid Not applicable 64 Not applicable 64 British British Airways Airways Lufthansa Lufthansa ,102 1,102 Air Air France France ,014 1,014 1,085 1,085 Source : Internet/WATS/Airline reports/back Associates Full liberalisation air services in Europe implemented in 1997, provided a significant boost for development low-cost services. Liberalisation created new route opportunities and ability to significantly reduce fares. The result has been stimulation new demand, rar than taking shares from major carriers. The low-cost sector originally comprised new airlines fering low cost, no frills services. Some major European flag carriers have already reacted to challenge presented by new carriers through introduction ir own low-cost airline subsidiaries, e.g. British Airways / Go; KLMuk / Buzz. It is estimated that around 25% passengers on US domestic services use low-cost airlines. The same percentage within Europe is around 5%, indicating that low-cost market has considerable growth potential. Both Ryanair and easyjet have placed orders for significant numbers additional aircraft to almost double capacity over next four years to meet this demand. Page 31

11 Impact low-cost carriers in Europe (cont d) With exception Go, low-cost carriers have achieved an operating prit. Operating prit US$ millions for last 12 month recorded period Sales Sales Costs Costs Operating prit Operating prit Operating Operating ratio ratio easyjet easyjet Ryanair Ryanair month period Go Go International International Scheduled Scheduled Airlines Airlines operating operating within within Europe Europe (average (average 1997) 1997) 103* 103* *Source : IATA Airline Economic Results & Prospects (Sept 1998) Source : WATS/Internet To be successful low-cost carriers must achieve right balance between maintaining low costs, low prices and high aircraft utilisation. The net margins for segment are low, making it vulnerable, particularly to high costs operating within Europe and increasing air traffic delays. easyjet and Ryanair are both pritable but re have already been casualties in this segment, such as Debonair. In order to flourish low-cost carriers must seek to establish presence at airports throughout Europe to emulate success ir counterparts in US. A furr development concept low-cost airline sector has been advent 'seat-only' sales on charter airline flights, rar than as part a package holiday. This has resulted, for example, in formation European Leisure Group, an alliance European charter/scheduled airlines. Page 32

12 International tourist arrivals Total world versus Europe International tourist arrivals (all modes transport)- history and forecast 1, , History Forecast Annual arrivals (in thousands) 1, , , World Europe ,602 Source: Forecasts based on information provided by WTO Visitors to Europe : Though its share has diminished over years, number international visitors to Europe accounted for 60% total world visitors in It s worth noting that bulk travellers travelled by surface modes not by air. Forecast growth by world region : Europe has a fairly low forecast growth rate in international tourism. However, with high base volumes inbound tourism, 1% growth is equivalent to almost 4 million arrivals in Europe (based on 1998 figure). Page 33

13 Relative distribution international tourist arrivals by world region The share international tourist arrivals to Europe out total world tourist arrivals will decline significantly during forecast period Africa 4% Middle East 2% Africa 5% Middle East 4% Americas 19% Europe 60% Americas 18% Europe 47% Asia 15% Asia 26% Source: WTO Europe was and will remain major world destination for international tourists : However, growth in tourism is expected to be stronger in or regions, particularly in Asia. Coupled with fact that Europe is considered a mature market, this indicates that it s share total market will decline. A strong gain in market share is expected for Asia : An increase 11 points market share is expected between 1998 and Or developing markets : Africa and Middle East will see an increase in market share while Americas, anor mature market, will experience a slight decline. Page 34

14 Top ten European countries in terms international visitor arrivals in 1998 International tourists visiting France and Spain represented around a third total international tourists visiting Europe in France Spain Italy United Kingdom Poland Austria Germany Czech Rep. Russian Federation Hungary Source: WTO International tourist arrivals (in millions) France : Is largest travel destination in Europe for international tourists, and this will remain true throughout forecast period. In 1998 France received 70 million international visitors. This is about 45% more than Spain, second largest travel destination. Within Eastern and Central Europe : There are four countries in European top ten. Poland received most international tourists with nearly 20 million in The Czech Republic was next most visited. Page 35

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