CIES Football Observatory. World Cup 2014 Scenario

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1 CIES Football Observatory 2014 Scenario

2 Scenario Methodology The CIES Football Observatory has analysed the career trajectory of squad members from the last four finalists and is now able to identify some of the factors which allowed them to outperform their rivals in the competition. The Observatory academic team have selected the following indicators for assessing the potential of the 2014 participants: - - for the two years preceding the event - - for the two years preceding the event - for the two years preceding the event - matches The results for each national team are illustrated through a diagram with green or red boxes. A green box means that the value measured for the team is superior to the minimal figure observed for the last four finalists for the 11 players with the highest values. If this is not the case, the box is red. The greater the proportion of green boxes, the higher the probability of reaching the final stages of the competition.retour ligne automatique In the case of a tie, we took into account the number of matches of national teams during the last four editions. About us The Football Observatory is a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES), a private foundation affiliated to the University of Neuchâtel, in Switzerland. Set up in 2005 by Drs Raffaele Poli and Loïc Ravenel, it currently comprises a staff of four full-time permanent researchers specialised in data mining and the statistical analysis of sport. Two reports are published every year. In January, the Demographic Study presents an in-depth analysis of club composition and player characteristics in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member countries. In June, the Annual Review analyses clubs and players in the big-5 European leagues from a demographic, economic and pitch performance perspective. Since 2005, the CIES Football Observatory has been mandated to undertake original research by several prestigious institutions such as, but not limited to, FIFA, UEFA, European Club Association (ECA), European Professional Football Leagues (EPFL), Swiss Football League (SFL), as well as top-flight European clubs in several countries.

3 Scenario Groupe stage Groupe A Groupe B 1. Brazil 1. Spain 2. Croatia 2. The Netherlands 3. Mexico 3. Chili 4. Cameroon 4. Australia Groupe C Groupe D 1. Japan 1. England 2. Colombia 2. Italy 3. Ivory Coast 3. Uruguay 4. Greece 4. Costa Rica Groupe E Groupe F 1. France 1. Argentina 2. Ecuador 2. Nigeria 3. Switzerland 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Honduras 4. Iran Groupe G Groupe H 1. Portugal 1. Belgium 2. Germany 2. Russia 3. USA 3. South Korea 4. Ghana 4. Algeria Knock-out round 1/8 Finals 1/4 Finals 1/2 Finals FINAL Brazil The Netherlands Brazil Japan Italy Italy Brazil France France Nigeria France Portugal Portugal Russia Brazil Croatia Spain Spain Spain Colombia England England Spain Ecuador Argentina 3 rd place Argentina Argentina France Germany Belgium Germany Argentina Complete scenario

4 Scenario Brazil Croatia CIES Football Observatory prediction: Finalist Mexico Cameroun GROUP A

5 Scenario Spain The Netherlands CIES Football Observatory prediction: World Champion Chili Australia GROUP B

6 Scenario Japan Colombia CIES Football Observatory prediction:1/8 final Ivory Coast Greece GROUP C

7 Scenario England Italy CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final Uruguay Costa Rica GROUP D

8 Scenario France Ecuador CIES Football Observatory prediction: 4 th Switzerland Honduras GROUP E

9 Scenario Argentina Nigeria CIES Football Observatory prediction: 3 rd Bosnia-Herzegovina Iran GROUP F

10 Scenario Portugal Germany CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final USA Ghana GROUP G

11 Scenario Belgium Russia CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final South Korea Algeria GROUP H

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