ABSTRACTS OF WORKSHOP ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

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1 ABSTRACTS OF WORKSHOP ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE University of West Hungary Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences Mosonmagyaróvár 24 th September, 2015

2 Complex assessment of climate change impacts - preparing international R&D projects in the University of West Hungary B. Gálos 1, A. Polgár 1, E. Preklet 2, F. Divós 2 1 University of West Hungary, Faculty of Forestry, Sopron 2 University of West Hungary, Simonyi Károly Faculty of Engineering, Wood Sciences and Applied Arts, Sopron galos.borbala@emk.nyme.hu The CLIMATE IMPACTS Complex assessment of climate change impacts - preparing international R&D projects in the University of West Hungary project has been launched in order to develop research, management, infrastructure and education of the Faculties. The scientific work is concentrating on climate change and its impacts on natural and agricultural ecosystems, which has a priority also in the EU. The aim is to establish research groups who will be able to write proposals for R&D projects of the European Union, with focus on Horizon2020 projects. Beyond researchers with various disciplines from the University, involvement of young scientists, PhD students and researchers from international research centres are especially supported. These inter- and multidisciplinary research groups and new partnerships will contribute to the enhancement of the research potential as well as to the sustainable knowledge transfer in the University. The duration of the project is 8 months, the consortium includes two partners (University of West Hungary and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Centre of Ecological Research). Our work is being carried out in the frame of the project "Complex assessment of climate change impacts - preparing international R&D projects in the University of West Hungary (TÁMOP D-15/1/KONV ), that has been supported by the European Union, co-financed by the European Social Fund." Keywords: research and development, research group, climate change impact

3 Vulnerability of land cover and land use due to rapid progress of climatic changes on temperatecontinental plains of Eastern Europe Cs. Mátyás NEESPI Focus Research Center for Nonboreal Eastern Europe, Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron Continental plains of SE Europe experience a rapid progress of climatic changes. Extreme droughts and decline of ecological services (decrease of groundwater and runoff resources) will jeopardise sustainability of agricultural and forest yields and life quality of rural population. Water availability dictates land use, but landcover change affects also albedo and evapotranspiration, which have a further feedback on climate. The acute problem is observed also on other continents such as in North China, or in the US Southwest. Strategic planning requires the development of Decision Support Systems.

4 The impact of climate change on effectiveness of plant production technologies and its possible mitigation M. Neményi Institute of Biosystems and Food Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of West- Hungary, Mosonmagyaróvár Is climate change a hysteria or reality? Impact of climate change on society (who pays the bill?). About the sustainability in plant production. Improvement of plant physiological models in order to gratify the criteria of sustainability. Precision plant production and the plant physiological decision support models. How the research activity of Institute of Biosystems Engineering (University of West Hungary) was contributing to the development of precision, site specific plant production technologies in the past 15 years. The integration of precision plant production technologies into the plant physiological and climate change models.

5 Extending NATéR within the Agriculture Sector N. Fodor Agricultural Institute, Centre for Agricultural Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Martonvásár The main objective of the AGRATéR project is to extend the NATéR database within the agriculture sector (crop production, forestry, rangeland management) by including new, km resolution data and indicator layers covering the area of Hungary using a three-step methodology: (1) A database of the relevant data layers (climate, soil, plant) will be created. (2) Static and dynamic models will be combined with the latest climate change scenarios in order to produce agriculture related production, sensitivity, expected impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability indicator data layers. (3) The AGRATéR products as well as the corresponding metadata will be incorporated into the NATéR database.

6 Reporting on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in the LULUCF sector Z. Somogyi 1, É.I. Király 2, V. Kozma-Bognár 2, J. Berényi-Üveges 2 1 NAIK Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest 2 National Food Chain Safety Office, Budapest somogyiz@iif.hu If human induced climate change has been mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions and the reduction of the terrestrial sink, then these emissions and removals need to be studied to develop and implement any mitigation action. Also, studying the processes, both natural and anthropogenic, that lead to emissions and removals might reveal the potential effect of climate change. Central to such studies at the country scale is the national greenhouse gas inventory. The paper will report the emissions and removals in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector, and their estimated scale. Keywords: greenhouse gas inventory, LULUCF sector, climate sensitivity

7 Assessment of possible impacts of climate change on future expansion of forested lands G. Illés 1, B. Heil 2, G. Kovács 2 1 National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre, Forest Research Institute, Sárvár 2 University of West Hungary, Faculty of Forestry, Institute of Chemistry and Forest Sites, Sopron illesg@erti.hu Within the framework of future land-use planning (National Development Plan) we made a research to map the possible extent of land areas suitable for afforestation. We used the latest countrywide environmental database of agro-ecological factors. Climate scenarios were applied to demonstrate expected changes. Areas of optimal and possible forest cover were mapped according to forests demands against site. Results show significant decrease of land areas suitable for forestry purposes. Keywords: climate change, land-use, forestry, forest site mapping

8 Long-term climate tendencies for adaptive forest management a case study of the Keszthely-Mountains B. Gálos, K. Gulyás, A. Horváth, A. Bidló Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron galos.borbala@emk.nyme.hu Analysis of long-term climate tendencies are precondition for the appropriate climate change adaptation in forestry. In the case study area (Keszthely-Mountains) forests are especially affected by the long lasting droughts and heat waves of the last decades. There is an ongoing complex analyses of abiotic and biotic factors in order to find connection between forest dieback and the changing site conditions. Additionally to the detailed soil sample analyses, temperature is being measured in different plots to show the large diversity of microclimates depending on slope, aspect and forest cover. Observed temperature and precipitation time series of the last 50 years show the increasing frequency of hot days and consecutive dry periods. Based on the results of regional climate model simulations significant warming and drying of summers can be expected until the end of the 21st century. Both extreme droughts and heavy precipitation events are projected to be more frequent. Consequently, the already observed climate change impacts and damages in forestry are very likely to occur with increased probability and severity towards the end of the century. Keywords: regional climate modelling, climate change impact, adaptation

9 Eco-balancing of Forestry and Field Plant Production Technologies in Environmental Life-Cycle Thinking A. Polgár, J. Pécsinger Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron One of the aim of the agricultural ecosystem s researches is to detect the relationships between the current land uses, cultivation technologies and the changed environmental features caused by climate change. During the project "Agricultural Climate 2. (VKSZ_ ) we educe a suitable method in the technological aspect to the environmental assessment of land use changes caused by climate changes. We make an eco-balance (environmental inventory of input-output material and energy data) to the environmental effects classification in life-cycle approach in connection with the typical agricultural / forestry technologies. The results of the balance evaluated with the use of environmental impact categories are connected to different environmental problems. The use of balances and environmental classification are possible to compare land-use technologies and their environmental effects per common functional unit. The environmental assessment of technological aspects of land use represent an important addition to the climate researches. Keywords: life-cycle assessment / life-cycle impact assessment / carbon footprint / life-cycle thinking

10 Climate sensitivity analysis of maize yield on the basis of data of precision crop production A. Nyéki, G. Milics, A.J. Kovács, M. Neményi Institute of Biosystems and Food Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of West- Hungary, Mosonmagyaróvár We have predicted the maize yield in precision crop production technologies using the European Regional Climate Models of Ensemble project with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) plant dynamic physiological model for 21 th century. The main goal of our paper was to predict maize (Zea mays L.) yield based on various climate models at management zones level and county level until The critical climate factors and soil parameters were studied at field-level. Keywords: DSSAT, regional climate models, maize yield forecast until 2100, management zones level to county level

11 Data collection methods for agricultural models G. Milics Institute of Biosystems and Food Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of West- Hungary, Mosonmagyaróvár Reliable data is elementary for all models. Agriculture especially up-to-date, precision or site-specific agriculture requires large amount of data for modelling and decision making. New sensor technology and remote sensing instruments allow collecting data from within-field differences. In this paper author highlights some of the recently applied data collection methods including sensors and remote sensing platforms as well as data preparation possibilities for precision agriculture modelling.

12 The effect of climatic change on management and animal carrying capacity of grasslands F. Szabó 1, J. Tasi 2, K. Tempfli 1, L. Gulyás 1, M. Bajnok 2, A. Halász 2 1 Institute of Animal Science, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of West Hungary, Mosonmagyaróvár 2 Institute of Crop Production, Szent István University of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Gödöllő szf@mtk.nyme.hu During the study the effect of climate change on pasture yield and beef cattle carrying capacity was forecasted from to 2100 year for Zala county of Hungary. Six scenarios were used to predict dry matter yield of the pastures ton/ha dry matter yield (100%), as an average of years, was considered the initial basis of the estimation. All scenarios showed decreasing tendency of the pasture yield. The forecasted yields for the period of years were: 2.69 ton/ha (83%), 2.85 ton/ha (88%), 2.83 ton/ha (88%), 2.85 ton/ha (88%), 2.59 ton/ha (80%), 2.97 ton/ha (92%), 2.80 ton/ha (87%) according to the scenarios. Obviously the predicted carrying capacity showed the same trend. Further research is planned to deliver climatic impact assessment, focusing on common grass-types in Hungary. Keywords: forecast, scenarios, grass yield, carrying capacity

13 Climate Impacts on Cereal Yields: A Hungarian Case G. Kemény 1, J. Fogarasi 1, 2, A. Molnár 1, A. Zubor-Nemes 1, A. Kiss 1 1 Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Budapest 2 Partium Christian University, Oradea, Romania Kemeny.Gabor@aki.gov.hu The Hungarian cereal production is situated in the most vulnerable climate zone of Europe. The estimation of the impact of expected future climate on cereal production can foster the adaptation process of crop farming. A crop simulation model calibrated to Hungarian agro-technical and environmental conditions is tested with farm level data for validation and to assess the potential cereal yields based on forecasted climatic change. The differences between simulated yields and observed yields are investigated by regression analysis. From the period of sample farms with at least 5 years data were selected, resulted 7811 and 7675 wheat and maize production cycle respectively. We used three different regional climate model available in the Ensembles portfolio: Aladin, Racmo2 and Regcm3. Analysing the differences between the estimated and observed yields we identified the heterogeneity of technologies and of land quality as a key influencing factors. Depending the regional climate model used, spring and fall crops such as the investigated maize and wheat show opposite expected yield. This result shows the importance of applied climate model and emphasize further investigation in terms of uncertainty of current regional climate models.

14 Hyperspectral satellite data in forest and soil assessment M. Deák 1, F. Tulézi 1, K. Kiss 2, L. Mari 1 1 Eötvös Loránd University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography, Budapest 2 Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Budapest dmarton42@gmail.com One of the most challenging tasks about climate change studies is the collection of reliable, easy to access spatial data. So it is with the soils and forests which are one of the biggest fossil reservoirs thus very important factors to understand the ecosystem. Monitoring systems and official or scientific databases can provide us data at larger scales, but they are not always accessible and may not be up to date. Remotely sensed data however, especially hyperspectral satellite images are one of the rarely utilized information sources which can provide us information about among others forest tree composition and soil organic matter content.