Italian Morning Sight
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- Gervase Hampton
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1 Italian Morning Sight 24 April 2015 Equity Research Institutional Sales Relative Value Equity Derivatives Events Atlantia: Ordinary shareholders' meeting Ferragamo: Ordinary shareholders' meeting Landi Renzo: Ordinary and extraordinary shareholders' meeting Luxottica Group: Ordinary shareholders' meeting Technical Analysis DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector Stock Exchanges Investment Research 23 Apr 15 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD FTSE Italy All-Share 24, ,270 25,684 FTSE MIB 23, ,123 24,031 FTSE Italy Star 25, ,482 25,947 Comit 1, , ,323.7 Stoxx EuroStoxx 50 3, , ,828.8 Dow Jones Industrials 18, ,165 18,289 Nasdaq Comp 5, ,571 5,056 Nikkei , ,796 20,188 Other Market Indicators 23 Apr 15 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD EUR/USD USD/YEN London Brent Crude Oil Index U$/B Yrs Bund Futures Source: Datastream EXTEL PAN-EUROPEAN SURVEY 2015 Your opinion is important to us. If you would like to acknowledge ' research and sales team, please submit your vote at: Recommendation and target price changes No change News Azimut (Accumulate) New acquisition in Brazil Gruppo Ed. L'Espresso (Accumulate) Q Post: better than expected across the board Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (Buy) GM's Barra rules out M&A Ferrari listing approaching Finmeccanica (Buy) Investigations over an Algerian contract go on Notorious Pictures (Accumulate) Management changes Rcs MediaGroup (Neutral) Cairo wins a board seat UniCredit (Neutral) Agreement reached to combine Pioneer and SAM All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: ESNR <go>
2 Azimut Italy/Financial Services FINANCIAL SERVICES Azimut (Accumulate) New acquisition in Brazil New acquisition in Brazil The facts: Azimut announced a new acquisition in Brazil yesterday during trading hours. More in detail the company more than double its size in Brazil by acquiring a 60% stake in Quest Investimentos. AZMT.MI/AZM IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,715 Current N of shares (m) 143 Free float 80% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,247,977 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 32,485 Price high 12 mth (EUR) Price low 12 mth (EUR) Abs. perf. 1 mth -1.82% Abs. perf. 3 mth 27.30% Abs. perf. 12 mth 12.45% Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e Total Revenue (m) Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) Operating profit (OP) Earnings Before Tax (m) Net Profit (adj.) (m) Shareholders Equity (m) Tangible BV (m) RWA (m) ROE (adj.) 23.5% 25.9% 25.5% Total Capital Ratio (B3) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cost/Income 34.7% 32.1% 32.1% P/PPP P/E (adj.) P/BV P/TBV Dividend Yield 3.0% 3.7% 4.2% PPPPS EPS (adj.) BVPS TBVPS DPS Our analysis: Quest Investimentos manages around EUR 615m mainly in equity products and is one of Brazil s best-performing fund managers. Azimut and Quest will form the joint venture AZ Quest. The transaction will substantially increase Azimut AuM to around EUR 1.1bn in the country. The final purchase price ought to be approximately EUR 22m, around 6% of AuM acquired according to our calculations. The closing of the deal is likely to occur within the next few weeks. Conclusion & Action: This is positive news, even if the price is expensive compared to the previous international transactions (price between 2% and 3% of AuM acquired). Nevertheless this new deal represents for Azimut another step to become an important asset manager in Brazil, the world s seventh largest economy, which had more than EUR 750bn in AuM at the end of We remind readers that Azimut has the best geographical diversification compared to the Italian peers and, it is well on track, also thanks to this last acquisition, to achieve is business plan targets (2019). We stick to our accumulate stance on the stock Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 AZIMUT FTSE MIB (Rebased) Shareholders: Timone Fiduciaria 20%; Enrico Esposti, CIIA, enrico.esposti@bancaakros.it
3 Gruppo Ed. L Espresso Italy/Media MEDIA Gruppo Ed. L'Espresso (Accumulate) New acquisition in Brazil Accumulate ESPI.MI/ES IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 486 Current N of shares (m) 408 Free float 40% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,338,266 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1,611 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 1.69 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 0.83 Abs. perf. 1 mth -3.25% Abs. perf. 3 mth 13.33% Abs. perf. 12 mth % Q Post: better than expected across the board The facts: L Espresso published better-than-expected Q results. Our analysis: advertising collection outperformed the general market (-5.2% in 2m 2015 according to Nielsen), the print segment (-6.9% vs. -8%) and internet (flat vs.-5.2%) while radio slightly underperformed albeit positive (+2.6% vs. +5.2%). Diffusion revenues (-3.8% ex add-ons) outperformed the market, (-9.8% according to ADS) mainly thanks to price increases. EBITDA beat our forecasts given higher-than-expected advertising revenues and further cost-cutting (costs down by 3% Y/Y). Net income surged to EUR 12m in spite of stable EBIT Y/Y as a consequence of EUR 6.1m capital gain on All Music, EUR 2m lower taxes and EUR 1m write-up in the TV segment. Net debt declined by EUR 23m in the quarter (better than expected) as a consequence of EUR 12.8m organic cash generation along with EUR 8.8m proceeds from the disposal of All Music channel. Key financials (EUR) 12/13 12/14e 12/15e Sales (m) EBITDA (m) EBITDA margin 9.1% 9.2% 11.2% EBIT (m) EBIT margin 4.5% 5.9% 7.8% Net Profit (adj.)(m) ROCE 1.5% 3.0% 3.2% Net debt/(cash) (m) Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(ebitda/fin. int) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT P/E (adj.) nm P/BV OpFCF yield 6.7% 6.9% 0.8% Dividend yield 0.0% 2.5% 2.5% EPS (adj.) BVPS DPS L Espresso Q results (EUR m) Q1 Q1 Q1 Q Pf 2015e 2015a Y/Y* Sales % Circulation % advertising % other % EBITDA rep % margin 10.5% 9.3% 7.9% 9.5% 0.2% EBIT % EBT % Net Debt % Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates (*) on pro-forma Outlook: The perspectives for the Italian advertising market are still uncertain; NMR said the January has not provided encouraging signals, however they are confident on a support from the combined effect of QE, Euro weakness and Oil decline. The 2015 estimate is flat. As usual, a more positive attitude comes from the organization of companies utilizing advertising (UPA) which sees a 1/2% increase this year. L Espresso said that the month of March highlighted a slight improvement from the first two months; however there is still "low visibility" on the remainder of the year. We keep our estimates basically unchanged Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 Conclusion & Action: Better-than-expected results. We maintain a positive recommendation. EDITORIALE L'ESPRESSO Stoxx Media (Rebased) Shareholders: Carlo De Benedetti 53%; Eredi Caracciolo 12%; Andrea Devita, CFA, andrea.devita@bancaakros.it
4 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Italy/Automobiles & Parts AUTOMOBILES & PARTS Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (Buy) Q Post: better than Buy FCHA.MI/FCA IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 22,309 Current N of shares (m) 1,507 Free float 57% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 13,038,890 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 194,393 Price high 12 mth (EUR) Price low 12 mth (EUR) 6.47 Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.80% Abs. perf. 3 mth 28.58% Abs. perf. 12 mth 66.57% Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e Sales (m) 96, , ,051 EBITDA (m) 8,120 10,531 11,670 EBITDA margin 8.5% 9.0% 9.1% EBIT (m) 3,223 4,676 5,407 EBIT margin 3.4% 4.0% 4.2% Net Profit (adj.)(m) 846 1,491 2,088 ROCE 5.6% 6.9% 7.7% Net debt/(cash) (m) 7,654 7,390 6,190 Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(ebitda/fin. int) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT P/E (adj.) P/BV OpFCF yield -3.8% 1.1% 5.3% Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS (adj.) BVPS DPS GM's Barra rules out M&A Ferrari listing approaching The facts: Yesterday, GM CEO Mary Barra said that the industry challenges will not force GM to merge with other players and that GM will not consider anything that can distract it from the execution of its plans. On another front, various sources stress that FCA is close to appoint Ferrari s IPO syndicate shortly. No mandates would have been given yet, but banks placing queries with FCA would have been told the decision will come shortly. Our analysis: Ms Barra had said that GM was focussed on the plan execution already weeks ago, but she didn't rule out a merger so decisively at that time. The news is negative in our view. Sergio Marchionne had said that a merger with GM or Ford was technically feasible. We argue that VW remains the best fit for FCA and stress that our EUR 20.5 target price discounts an M&A scenario which weighs EUR 3.7 p/s. Regarding the Ferrari listing, expected in Q3, we argue that FCA may give some details shortly, when it releases the Q results on 29 April. We stress that the same sources we mentioned hint that Ferrari might be valued at the same multiples of Hermès; this would add ~EUR 2.4 p/s to our valuation. Conclusion & Action: We confirm our positive stance on the stock Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased) Shareholders: EXOR 29%; Baillie Gifford & Co 10%; Vanguard 4%; Gabriele Gambarova, gabriele.gambarova@bancaakros.it
5 Finmeccanica Italy/Aerospace & Defense AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Finmeccanica (Buy) GM's Barra rules out M&A Ferrari listing Buy SIFI.MI/FNC IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 6,389 Current N of shares (m) 578 Free float 63% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 3,806,957 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 42,527 Price high 12 mth (EUR) Price low 12 mth (EUR) 5.56 Abs. perf. 1 mth -2.64% Abs. perf. 3 mth 21.83% Abs. perf. 12 mth 68.83% Investigations over an Algerian contract go on The facts: Italian finance police are probing suspected corruption in the sale of helicopters by AgustaWestland (100% FNC) to Algeria. Yesterday, police officers carried out 41 search orders across Italy; the investigation reportedly concerns the alleged creation of slush funds and fake invoices by former AgustaWestland managers to win a contract to supply helicopters to the Algerian government in the period FNC issued a press release stressing that the investigation refer to facts related to previous managements and bygone (between 2009 and 2011). FNC also added that it is at the complete disposal of the authorities, in order for them to establish the facts of the case and identify possible responsibilities and to avoid the risk that the new FNC and all those who work directly and indirectly for the company remain for too long in a severely limited competitive situation, within an international environment of significant competition, where the new FNC is playing a crucial role in the interest of the Country. Key financials (EUR) 12/13 12/14e 12/15e Sales (m) 16,003 14,663 14,776 EBITDA (m) 854 1,401 1,655 EBITDA margin 5.3% 9.6% 11.2% EBIT (m) EBIT margin 0.3% 4.7% 6.7% Net Profit (adj.)(m) ROCE 8.4% 10.0% 11.1% Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,316 3,962 3,743 Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(ebitda/fin. int) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT nm P/E (adj.) 30.6 nm 13.9 P/BV OpFCF yield 4.0% -13.1% 5.1% Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% EPS (adj.) BVPS DPS Our analysis: The news is clearly negative, but we stress that: 1- The people under investigation have nothing to do with FNC/AgustaWestland anymore. 2- As far as we know, the helicopters for Algeria have already been delivered, differently from what happened with the Indian contract of The contract should be smaller in size than in the case of India. We remind you that AgustaWestland has been investigated by Italian magistrates across 3 years over alleged international bribery in connection with a contract to sell 12 VVIP helicopters to India (the contract, signed in 2010, was worth EUR 560m). An Italian court sentenced the former head of FNC and AgustaWestland, Giuseppe Orsi, to a two-year suspended sentence for false bookkeeping, but cleared him of a more serious charge of international corruption. The Indian Air Force, which had already received 3 helicopters, cancelled the contract and was given back advance payments for EUR 250m Conclusion & Action: We believe that the economic/managerial consequences of the investigations (if any) are likely to be less harmful than in the Indian case. The Italian magistrates' activism virtually represents an exception in the defence industry and it represents a minus for FNC in comparison with other defence players. 6 5 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 FINMECCANICA Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased) Shareholders: Italian Government 32%; FMR LLC 2%; Libyan Investment Authority 2%; Gabriele Gambarova, gabriele.gambarova@bancaakros.it
6 Notorious Pictures Italy/Media MEDIA Notorious Pictures (Accumulate) Investigations over an Algerian Accumulate NPI.MI/NPI IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 66 Current N of shares (m) 22 Free float 10% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 4,000 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 12 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 3.00 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 2.36 Abs. perf. 1 mth 7.43% Abs. perf. 3 mth 11.74% Abs. perf. 12 mth Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e Sales (m) EBITDA (m) EBITDA margin 53.6% 59.9% 65.8% EBIT (m) EBIT margin 37.4% 43.6% 46.9% Net Profit (adj.)(m) ROCE 82.6% 44.4% 43.1% Net debt/(cash) (m) (8) (7) (9) Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(ebitda/fin. int) high high EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT P/E (adj.) P/BV OpFCF yield 9.6% 21.6% 17.5% Dividend yield 0.0% 3.4% 4.4% EPS (adj.) BVPS DPS Management changes The facts: NOP announced a few management changes, including the creation of the CFO figure (Enrico Locatelli) and a head of production (Andrea Borella) while the former general manager (Roberto Proia) left the company. Other personnel leaving include the head of acquisitions Massimo Brioschi which will be replaced by Silvia Tomasello and the commercial director Giuseppe Davalli which will be replaced by Katia Mitelli. Our analysis: following the IPO last summer, the appointment of a CFO is a largely expected move. The same applies to the introduction of a head of production as NOP is entering the movie (co) production business (as announced in last November plan presentation). The loss of key personnel in the figure of managing director Roberto Proia appears more problematic, but is partially compensated by the more structured organization that is emerging. The other leaving managers are being substituted by figures with valuable experience, with Ms Tomasello having already worked with NOP CEO. Conclusion & Action: Neutral impact, given the balance of management injection and the loss of the managing director May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 NOTORIOUS PICTURES FTSE All Share (Rebased) Shareholders: Guglielmo Marchetti 90%; Andrea Devita, CFA, andrea.devita@bancaakros.it
7 Rcs MediaGroup Italy/Media MEDIA Rcs MediaGroup (Neutral) Management changes Neutral RCSM.MI/RCS IM Cairo wins a board seat The facts: the AGM of RCS elected the slate of six directors proposed the new "pact" organized by Mediobanca, appointing Maurizio Costa as chairman and confirming Scott Jovane as CEO. The Assogestioni list got two board members, Urbano Cairo won one seat. Market capitalisation (EURm) 508 Current N of shares (m) 532 Free float 55% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 3,897,397 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 4,630 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 1.68 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 0.83 Abs. perf. 1 mth 9.72% Abs. perf. 3 mth 22.73% Abs. perf. 12 mth % Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e Sales (m) 1,279 1,295 1,332 EBITDA (m) EBITDA margin 2.3% 9.4% 11.0% EBIT (m) (54) EBIT margin nm 4.1% 5.8% Net Profit (adj.)(m) (60) ROCE -0.8% 2.4% 3.2% Net debt/(cash) (m) Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(ebitda/fin. int) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT nm P/E (adj.) nm P/BV OpFCF yield -28.1% 0.6% 4.8% Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS (adj.) (0.11) BVPS DPS Our analysis: the above outcome was more or less obvious; the main event is the attribution of one board seat to Urbano Cairo (who proposed the managing partner of a leading Italian law firm), supported by some proxy consulting firm. On M&A, Reuters reported that the ongoing negotiations with Clessidra for the disposal of the radio business (44% in Finelco, valued c EUR 40m) are currently frozen, as the company has received other offers. The focus of the new board will in any case be the bid on the books division coming from Mondadori; the deadline is May 29. For sure, Mr Cairo adds a critical voice in this deal. Conclusion & Action: neutral to positive impact, mainly from the entry of a Cairo representative in the board Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 RCS MEDIAGROUP Stoxx Media (Rebased) Shareholders: FIAT 17%; Della Valle 7%; Mediobanca 6%; Invesco 5%; Intesa 4%; Andrea Devita, CFA, andrea.devita@bancaakros.it
8 UniCredit Italy/Banks BANKS UniCredit (Neutral) Cairo wins a board seat Neutral CRDI.MI/UCG IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 36,182 Current N of shares (m) 5,789 Free float 66% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 66,147,656 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 411,806 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 6.87 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 4.91 Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.32% Abs. perf. 3 mth 11.11% Abs. perf. 12 mth -4.07% Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e Total Revenue (m) 22,513 22,981 23,906 Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 8,316 8,890 9,650 Operating profit (OP) 4,024 4,961 6,094 Earnings Before Tax (m) 4,091 4,961 5,444 Net Profit (adj.) (m) 1,963 2,765 3,579 Shareholders Equity (m) 49,390 50,996 52,394 Tangible BV (m) 45,828 47,435 48,833 RWA (m) 409, , ,747 ROE (adj.) 4.4% 5.9% 7.4% Total Capital Ratio (B3) 13.6% 14.0% 14.0% Cost/Income 61.5% 60.2% 58.6% NPL ratio (gross) 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% P/PPP P/E (adj.) P/BV P/TBV Dividend Yield 1.9% 3.2% 4.0% PPPPS EPS (adj.) BVPS TBVPS DPS Agreement reached to combine Pioneer and SAM The facts: UniCredit, Santander and the private equity firms Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic signed yesterday a preliminary agreement to combine Pioneer and Santander Asset Mgmt (SAM) to create a global leading asset manager. Our analysis: The preliminary agreement will lead to the establishment of a holding company, with the name Pioneer Investments, which will control Pioneer's US operations along with the combination of Pioneer and SAM's operations outside the US. UniCredit and the Private Equity Firms will each own 50% of the holding company, which will in turn own 100% of Pioneer US, and 66.7% of the combination of Pioneer and SAM's operations outside the US, while Santander will directly own the remaining 33.3% stake. The combined firm will continue to operate as one global entity, led by a single global management team, focusing on meeting the needs of its clients worldwide. The agreement is based on an Enterprise Value of EUR 2.75bn for Pioneer Investments and EUR 2.6bn for Santander Asset Management (including its 49.5% stake in AllFunds Bank). Considering Pioneer has EUR 225bn AUM, it has been valued 1.2% P/AUM, while SAM has EUR 172bn AUM and has been valued 1.5% AUM. We also remind investors Pioneer s US operations have some EUR 40bn AUM. Finally, the transaction is estimated to enhance UniCredit's capital position by approximately 25 basis points. Conclusion & Action: Exclusive negotiations started end-sep and were expected to close by YE14. It took longer as the US operations have been dealt with in a different way than previously thought. The deal helps UniCredit to reinforce its relatively weaker capital position and we reiterate our Neutral stance on the stock Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 UNICREDIT Stoxx Banks (Rebased) Shareholders: Aabar 5%; Fondaz. Cariverona 4%; Del Vecchio 3%; Central Bank of Libya 3%; Fondaz. CRT 3%; Carimonte Holding 2%; Luigi Tramontana, luigi.tramontana@bancaakros.it
9 Technical Analysis (daily ratings) 24/04/2015 ESPRESSO ESPI.MI RCS RCSM.MI Close 1.19 Close Rating ADD Rating ADD Supp Supp Resist Resist Stop loss Stop loss Profit taking Profit taking 1.45 BHP BILLITON BLT.L BANKIA BKIA.MC Close Close Rating ADD Rating ADD Supp Supp Resist Resist Stop loss 1452 Stop loss Profit taking 1700 Profit taking Technical Analysis FTSE MIB (expiration June 2015)IFSc1 Supports: Resistances: RSI: N-POSITIVE STOCHASTICS: N-POSITIVE MACD: N-POSITIVE Short Term Trend: NEUTRAL 9
10 DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector Media Telecom Technology Financial Services Insurance Banks Utilities Personal Goods Food & Beverage Healthcare Industrial G&S Construction & Materials Oil & Gas Travel & Leisure Auto & Parts Retail Basic Resources Chemical (DJ Stoxx 23/04: chg -0.44%) % 0% 2% Source: Datastream Cyclical Non-Cyclical Financial TMT 10
11 Disclaimer This research has been prepared by Andrea Devita, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino, Enrico Esposti (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who are financial analysts with SpA (" "), which is responsible for the preparation of the research. is a bank authorised to perform also investment services; it is part of the Bipiemme Popolare di Milano Group (the Group ) and it is duly subject to the management and co-ordination of Popolare di Milano (the Parent Company ). is registered with the Italian Banking Association code n and is subject to the regulation and surveillance of Bank of Italy and Consob (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa)." has prepared this research for its professional clients only, pursuant to Directive 2004/39/CE and Annex 3 of Consob Regulation on intermediaries (Resolution n ). This research is being distributed as of 24 April In compliance with arts. 69 quater and quinquies of Consob Regulations for Issuers ( notification to the public regarding interest and conflict of interest ) hereby declared that it has a personal interest in some of the companies examined in this research, specifically: 1) Fiera Milano, Gabetti Property Solution, Prelios, Premuda, Risanamento: parent group holds more than 2% or is a member of shareholders pacts. 2) Cape Live, Prima Industrie: the Bank is acting as corporate advisor in communication to institutional investors. 3) Alerion Clean Power, Best Union, Class Editori, IMMSI, Italcementi, Piaggio, Servizi Italia, Sorin: dual administrator role in related parties. 4) Acotel, Amplifon, Autostrada To-Mi (TAH), Axelero (AIM), Enervit, Exprivia, Falck Renewables, Gas Plus, I Grandi Viaggi, QF Investietico, QF Mediolanum RE A, QF Mediolanum RE B, Sias (MTA-TAH): for which the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider. 5) Cerved, Fincantieri, Fineco Bank, Rai Way, OVS: was the placement bank and guarantor for the pertinent IPO organized in the last twelve months. 6) Carige, MPS, Pop. Sondrio, Banco Popolare, Cattolica Assicurazione, Creval: the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager in pertinent consortium for the capital increase organized in the last twelve months. 7) BNP Paribas, Georgia Worldwide (GTech), KFW, Mediobanca, Societé Generale: the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager of the consortium for the placement of the non-negotiable bonds organized in the last twelve months. 8) Anima Holding: parent group holds more than 2% or is a member of shareholders pacts; the Bank was the placement bank and guarantor for the pertinent IPO organized in the last twelve months. 9) Notorious Pictures: the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider; the Bank was Lead Manager in the consortium for the IPO organized in the last twelve months. 10) Banzai: the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider; was the placement bank and guarantor for the pertinent IPO organized in the last twelve months. 11) Vita Società Editoriale: the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider; the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager in pertinent consortium for the capital increase organized in the last twelve months. 12) Zucchi: parent group holds more than 2% or is a member of shareholders pacts; the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider. Financial analysts Andrea Devita, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino, Enrico Esposti (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who prepared this research, have gained considerable experience with and other authorised brokerage houses. Said financial analysts do not receive a bonus, salary or any other form of remuneration, whether directly or indirectly, from any earnings in any investment banking operation. Financial analyst Gabriele Gambarova holds financial instruments issued by FCA. Other financial analysts and their families do not hold financial instruments issued by the companies under examination nor are they directors, managers or advisors of the companies. Pursuant to Consob rulings to implement art. 114, paragraph 8 of Italian Legislative Decree 58/98 (TUF) and specifically art. 69 quinquies, paragraph 2 of the Issuers Regulation, hereby informs its clients that additional information is available at its web site: The information and opinions given in this research are based on sources believed to be reliable. has done its best to check the source of said information and that it has already been made public. However, notwithstanding the said controls does not guarantee nor shall it be held liable if the information supplied herein or used to prepare this research is found to be inaccurate, incomplete, untrue or incorrect. This research is for information purposes only. It shall not be regarded as a proposal for a contract, an offer to sell nor as a solicitation to buy and/or sell financial products nor, in general, to invest. Nor shall it be regarded as advice on investment opportunities. does not guarantee that any of the forecasts and/or estimates supplied in this research are attainable. Moreover, shall not be held liable for any consequences and/or damage that may derive from the use of this research and/or the information contained herein. All the information or opinions contained in this research are subject to change without notice, without detriment to any legal or regulatory requirements. Unless specifically authorised, this research may not be reproduced and/or circulated, whether wholly or in part, directly or indirectly. Percentage of recommendations by the 31 March 2015 All recommendations Recommendations on stocks under conflict of interest (*) (*) Please note that the rate of issuers who are in potential conflict of interests with is equivalent to 23% of all issuers covered 11
12 Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP) S.p.A. Viale Eginardo, MILANO Italy Phone: Fax: Equinet Bank AG Gräfstraße Frankfurt am Main Germany Phone: Fax: Bank Degroof Rue de I Industrie Brussels Belgium Phone: Fax: Investment Bank of Greece 32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou, Maroussi, Greece Tel: BEKA Finance Serrano, Madrid Spain Phone: Fax: Pohjola Bank plc P.O.Box 308 FI Pohjola Finland Phone: Fax: Caixa-Banco de Investimento Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº Lisboa Portugal Phone: Fax: SNS Securities N.V. Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162 P.O.Box AE Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: Fax: CM - CIC Securities 6, avenue de Provence Paris Cedex 09 France Phone: Fax:
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