Petroceltic. FY12 Preview Transitioning to a new level Equity Research 18 Apr Oil & Gas. Inaugural results statement as a merged entity

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1 Oil & Gas FY12 Preview Transitioning to a new level Equity Research 18 Apr 2013 Inaugural results statement as a merged entity While the scheduled release of FY12 results from on Monday (April 22 nd ) is significant in that it marks the inaugural set of results as a merged entity, the full effect of the merger will only become apparent in subsequent statements. Assuming two and a half months production contribution from Melrose we forecast FY12 revenue of $53.3m, earnings of 25c a share and net debt at year-end of $210m (as guided in January). A point of note with regard to the latter will be commentary around receivables from Egypt given political uncertainty, but also evidence that payments continue to reduce the outstanding balance. Updated progress on Algeria and exploration activity anticipated In the circumstances, greater billing is likely to be given to progress at Ain Tsila (Algeria) and scheduled exploration activity. With regard to the former, we expect the newly agreed $500m debt facility to coincide with an outline of Algerian reserves in the results statement, which should provide a catalyst for the outstanding Enel payment (c$25m). On the exploration front, while a result from Kamchia (Bulgaria, un-risked contribution to NAV of 0.2p) is not due until May, we expect commentary and updated volume guidance on the more material prospects to be drilled offshore Romania and Kurdistan. We would also point to recent press speculation tying to a Licensing Round in Egypt. Compelling valuation A compelling valuation (risked NAV of 12.5p), ahead of numerous corporate and exploration catalysts led us to select as a key pick for Q2. Recommendation BUY u Price Target: 0.13 u EPS FY1 0.4c u Key Stock Data Closing Price: 0.06 Market Cap / EV 270 / 399.0m Average Daily Volume m Free Float 75% 52 Wk Hi/Lo 0.08 / 0.06 Price Perf (1m/3m/12m) -12.8% / -17.3% / -22.6% Vs FTSE E Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 FTSE E300 Financial & Valuation Summary Dec 11a Dec 12f Dec 13f Dec 14f Headline Figures Revenues ($m) EBITDAe ($m) Adj EPS (c) DPS (c) Valuation International Comparative Ratings Price Cal. P/E Cal. EV/EBITDA lc 13f 14f 13f 14f DNO Genel Energy 8.13 n/a n/a n/a n/a Gulf Keystone EV / EBITDAe n/m 18.0x 3.8x 5.7x P/E n/m 25.9x 7.7x 13.6x Free Cash Flow Yield n/m n/m 23.9% 1.1% Dividend Yield Balance Sheet Strength Interest Cover (EBITDAe) 4.0x 9.1x 9.1x 6.8x Debt / Equity 4.5% 36.5% 26.4% 41.2% Net Debt / EBITDAe -2.3x 6.1x 1.1x 2.2x Profitability EBITDAe Margin n/m 64.7% 73.9% 69.1% ROCE -2.5% 3.4% 11.4% 7.7% ROE -1.7% 2.3% 9.0% 4.9% Analysts Gerry Hennigan Patrick Higgins Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures.

2 Goodbody Share Price 0.06 Mkt Cap (m) 270 Sector Oil & Gas Analyst Gerry Hennigan Recommendation Buy Avg Daily Volume m Ticker PCI LN Price Target 0.13 Free float 75% Web Site Tel Value Drivers Dec 10a Dec 11a Dec 12f Dec 13f Dec 14f Per Share Data - c adj EPS DPS Dividend cover n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m NAV Operating Cashflow Free Cashflow No. of Shares (m) 1, , , , ,388.4 Momentum Sales 28.6% 55.2% n/m 282.6% -16.5% EBITDAe -10.3% 13.8% 657.9% 337.3% -21.8% Operating Profit -12.4% 12.5% 390.7% 371.1% -28.1% Adj EPS 24.8% 24.8% 259.9% 236.1% -43.2% DPS n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a PBTe -16.0% 10.3% 404.7% 379.6% -35.3% Free Cashflow % -49.5% % 136.3% -95.4% Capital Employed 46.7% 82.0% 133.9% -1.3% 13.5% NAV 8.6% 0.1% 43.4% -32.2% 1.7% Profitability Metrics EBITDAe margin n/m n/m 64.7% 73.9% 69.1% Operating Profit margin n/m n/m 35.7% 43.9% 37.8% ROCE -4.8% -2.5% 3.4% 11.4% 7.7% ROE -2.6% -1.7% 2.3% 9.0% 4.9% - Asset Turnover - x 0.0x 0.0x 0.1x 0.3x 0.2x - PAT Margin - % n/m n/m 18.9% 26.1% 17.8% - Leverage - x 0.7x 0.9x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x Balance Sheet Metrics Net Debt / Capital Employed -44.3% 4.2% 26.5% 20.7% 29.0% Net Debt / Enterprise Value -29% 5% 34% 28% 38% Net Debt / EBITDAe 11.5x -2.3x 6.1x 1.1x 2.2x Debt / Equity -31% 5% 36% 26% 41% Avg Working Capital / Sales ####### ####### 226.8% 30.4% 24.1% Interest Cover (EBITDAe) 3.7x 4.0x 9.1x 9.1x 6.8x Investment Metrics Retention Ratio 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Acq Spend / Cap Employed Gross Capex / Cap Employed 36.2% 88.6% 15.7% 19.0% 25.6% Gross Capex / Depreciation n/m n/m 343.4% 245.6% 375.0% Gross Capex / Op Cashflow -1.7x 18.2x -0.2x 0.7x 1.4x Change in NWC / Cap Employed 16.6% -6.9% 42.6% -7.4% -2.7% Valuation PE n/m n/m 25.9x 7.7x 13.6x EV / Sales 1,045.2x 683.4x 11.7x 2.8x 3.9x EV / EBITDAe n/m n/m 18.0x 3.8x 5.7x Dividend Yield Free Cashflow Yield n/m n/m n/m 23.9% 1.1% Price / NAV 1.3x 1.0x 0.6x 0.7x 0.7x EV / Cap Employed 1.5x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.8x Financial Statements Dec 10a Dec 11a Dec 12f Dec 13f Dec 14f Profit & Loss ($m) Sales EBITDAe Depreciation Operating Profit Amortisation JV's & Associates Other EBIT Net Interest PBTe Tax Minority Interests Discontinued Operations Exceptional Items PAT Cashflow Statement ($m) EBITDAe Change in Working Capital Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest Tax Paid Maintenance Capex Other Free Cashflow Dividends Paid Changes in Share Cap Development Capex Acquisitions Disposals Other FX Translation Net Mvt in Net Debt Balance Sheet ($m) Net Tangible Assets Goodwill Other Net Intangible Assets Financial Assets Total Fixed Assets Stock Debtors Creditors Working Capital Other Liabilities Capital Employed Shareholders Funds Net Debt Net Pension Other Capital Employed Share Price Performance 1mth 3mth 6mth YTD 12mth Share Price Movement -12.2% -21.1% -13.5% -17.7% -26.0% vs FTSE E % -18.0% -15.2% -17.8% -31.6% Key Dates Last Report 22/01/2013 Ex Final Div n/a Forecast Change n/a Ex Interim Div n/a Next Update 22/04/2013 Page 2 18 Apr. 13

3 $m Goodbody NAV Calculation W.I. Reserves Risk NAV NAV/Share Unrisked Unrisked mmboe Weighting $m p $m p Egyptian Liquids % Egyptian Gas % Bulgarian Gas % Commercial NAV Algeria - Ain Tsila (Gas) % Algeria - Ain Tsila (Condensate) % Algeria - Ain Tsila (LPG) % Risked Development NAV Less Net Debt Total Core NAV (pence) High Risk Exploration W.I. Resource Risk Risked Risked Unrisked Unrisked mmboe Weighting $m p $m p Bulgaria Galata (Kamchia) % Egypt Mesaha (Mesaha 1) N/A 10% SE Mansoura (Sinbelaywan) % Romania Muridava (27-1) % Est Cobalcescu (28-1) % Kurdistan Shakrok (Shakrok) % Dinarta (Shireen) % Italy Italy (Elsa) % Italy (Carpignano Sesia) % High Risk Exploration NAV Total NAV Net Debt Profile (38.25% interest) Dec-12f Dec-13f Dec-14f Dec-15f Dec-16f Dec-17f Dec-18f Net Debt Operating Cashflow 18 Apr. 13 Page 3

4 mmscfd mmscfd Goodbody Forecast Breakdown of W.I. Egyptian Gas Production West Dikirnis West Khilala South Khilala South Damas Other Forecast Breakdown of W.I. Bulgarian Gas Production 30, , , , , , Kavarna (100%) Kaliafra (100%) Galata (100%) Page 4 18 Apr. 13

5 Goodbody Operational Overview Following the merger with Melrose Resources in 2012 incorporates a production base onshore Egypt and offshore Bulgaria, a development asset in Algeria and exploration acreage in Kurdistan, Italy and Romania. While near term investment seeks to derive value from the exploration assets, the medium term objective is to progress the Ain Tsila gas project in Algeria towards guided production in Successfully achieving that will provide sustained cashflow over a 25 year period. Risked NAV by Region Pie Chart 1 BK Risked NAV by Asset Life-cycle Pie Chart 2 BK Kurdistan 8% ItalyRomania 6% 1% Exploration 15% Bulgaria 12% Algeria 55% Production 30% Development 55% Egypt 18% : Return on Equity : Leverage & Asset turnover 10% 0.3x 1.6x 8% 6% 4% 0.3x 0.2x 1.4x 1.2x 1.0x 2% 0.2x 0.8x 0% -2% -4% 0.1x 0.1x 0.6x 0.4x 0.2x -6% FYn/a FYn/a FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12f FY13f FY14f 0.0x FYn/a FYn/a FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12f FY13f FY14f 0.0x Source : Goodbody Share Price & Valuation ROE(LHS) Sustainable(RHS) Source : Goodbody Asset T/o(LHS) Leverage(RHS) Rel to FTSE E300 rebased (2 yrs) Rel to FTSE E300 rebased (1 year) Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 FTSE E300 FTSE E300 Vs AXOIG (1 year) Vs AXOIG (2 years) Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 3 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 AXOIG AXOIG 18 Apr. 13 Page 5

6 Goodbody Issuer & Analyst Disclosures Recommendation History Current Rec: Date of First issue: Buy 26/05/2011 Previous Rec: Date of First issue: Add 04/10/2010 Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report. Regulatory Information Goodbody Stockbrokers is part of the Fexco group of companies. Goodbody Stockbrokers is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. This publication has been approved by Goodbody Stockbrokers. The information has been taken from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities. Conflicts of Interest Goodbody Stockbrokers has procedures and policies in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business. Goodbody Stockbrokers analysts and other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of research operate and have a management reporting line that is independent to its Corporate Finance business. Information barriers are in place between the Corporate Finance arm and the Research arm to ensure that any confidential and or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. Our Investment Research Conflicts of Interest Policy is available at Conflicts of Interest Investors should be aware, that, where appropriate, research may be disclosed to the issuer(s) in advance of publication in order to correct factual inaccuracies only and not to materially amend the research in any way. Goodbody Stockbrokers is satisfied that it has operational procedures in place, which ensure that such disclosures will not compromise the report s objectivity. Goodbody Stockbrokers and its associated companies may from time to time perform investment banking or corporate finance services, including underwriting, managing or advising on a public offering for, or solicit business from any company recommended in this report. Goodbody Stockbrokers may have acted, in the past 12 months, as lead manager / co-lead manager in the securities of any company named in this report. Goodbody Stockbrokers is a registered market maker in the majority of companies listed on the Irish Stock Exchange and their equivalent on the London Stock Exchange and may hold positions in any of the companies mentioned in this report from time to time. A complete list of the companies that Goodbody Stockbrokers makes a market in is available at Regulatory Disclosures Page 6 18 Apr. 13

7 Goodbody Other disclosures A description of this company is available at Company Descriptions All prices used in this report are as at close of business of the previous working day unless otherwise indicated. A summary of our standard valuation methods are available at Valuation Methodologies A summary of share price recommendations and whether material investment banking services have been provided to these companies is available at Regulatory Disclosures Other important disclosures are available at Regulatory Disclosures Goodbody Stockbrokers updates its recommendations on a regular basis. A breakdown of all recommendations provided by Goodbody Stockbrokers is available at Regulatory Disclosures Where Goodbody Stockbrokers has provided investment banking services to an issuer, details of the proportion of buys, adds, reduces and sells attributed to that issuer will also be included. This is updated on a quarterly basis. Recommendation Definitions Goodbody Stockbrokers uses the terms Buy, Sell and Hold. The term Buy means that the analyst expects the security to appreciate in excess of 10% over a twelve month period. The term Sell means that the security is expected to decline in excess of 10% over the next twelve months. The term Hold means that the analyst expects the security to neither appreciate more than 10%, or depreciate more than 10% over the next twelve months. On 26th of November, 2012, the terms Add and Reduce were removed from the Recommendation Definitions and both were replaced with the Hold recommendation. Any Previous Recommendation that refers to either an Add means that the analyst expected the security to appreciate by up to 15% over a twelve month period. Any Previous Recommendation to Reduce means that the analyst expected the security to decline by up to 15% over the next twelve months. In the event that a stock is delisted the firm will automatically cease coverage. If however the firm ceases to cover a stock for any other reason the firm will disclose this fact. Distribution of research to clients of Goodbody Securities Inc (GSI) in the US GSI distributes third-party research produced by its affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers GSI is a member of FINRA and SIPC. GSI does not act as a market-maker. This information was current as of the last business day of the month preceding the date of the report. An affiliate of GSI may have acted, in the past 12 months, as lead manager/co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of the securities in this company. Investors should be aware that an affiliate of GSI may have provided investment banking or non-investment-banking services to, and received compensation from this company in the past 12 months or may provide such services in the next three months. The term investment banking services includes acting as broker as well as the provision of corporate finance services, such as underwriting and managing or advising on a public offer. All transactions by US persons involving securities of companies discussed in this report are to be effected through GSI. Disclaimer While all reasonable care has been taken in the production and dissemination of this report it is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. Private customers having access, should not act upon it in anyway but should consult with their independent professional advisors. The price, value and income of certain investments may rise or may be subject to sudden and large falls in value. You may not recover the total amount originally invested. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance; neither should simulated performance. The value of securities may be subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise is copyright to Goodbody Stockbrokers. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Goodbody Stockbrokers. Goodbody, Ballsbridge Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland T (+353 1) W E 18 Apr. 13 Page 7

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