BPER GROUP 2011 Results. Luigi Odorici - Chief Executive Officer

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1 BPER GROUP 2011 Results Luigi Odorici - Chief Executive Officer Milan, 14 March 2012

2 Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Banca popolare dell Emilia Romagna solely for information purposes, and only in order to present its strategies and main financial figures. The information contained in this document has not been audited. No guarantee, express or implied, can be given as to the document s contents, nor should the completeness, correctness or accuracy of the information or opinions herein be relied upon. Banca popolare dell Emilia Romagna, its advisors and its representatives decline all liability (for negligence or any other cause) for any loss occasioned by the use of this document or its contents. All forecasts contained herein have been prepared on the basis of specific assumptions which could prove wrong, in which case the actual data would differ from the figures given herein. No part of this document may be regarded as forming the basis for any contract or agreement. No part of the information contained herein may for any purpose be reproduced or published as a) whole or in part, nor may such information be disseminated. The Manager responsible for preparing the Company s financial reports, Emilio Annovi, declares, in accordance with art. 154-bis., para. 2, of the "Consolidated Financial Services Act" (Legislative Order No. 58/1998), that the accounting information contained in this document corresponds to documentary records, ledgers and accounting entries. Emilio Annovi Manager responsible for preparing the Company's financial reports Pagina 2

3 CONTENTS 2011 Results Highlights Assets and liabilities Profit and loss Capital adequacy Pagina 3

4 Highlights Net profit of /mn: a decrease of 27.5%, but increasing net of non-recurring items (271.9 /mn;+42.2%) Net profit attributable to the Parent Bank of /mn: +48.8% net of non-recurring items; a recovery of around 20 /mn of net profit due to PTO Revenues: - Interest margin up by 3.2% and growing constantly for the last 3 quarters - Commission stable vs 2010 (+0.5%) - Net profit from financial activities: significant contribution from the Fair Value Option (FVO) on financial liabilities, which mitigates the unrealised losses on securities Provisions down by 12.0% and cost of credit at 71 bps (79 bps in 2010) Operating costs lower than in 2010 (-0.6%) and the first significant signs of spending cuts Volumes: growing slightly on 2010 (loans +0.9%; deposits +0.6%) Pagina 4

5 Main events Capital gains on disposal of assets: Non-recurring items in 2010 Arca Assicurazioni: 26.1 /mn Arca Vita: /mn Non-recurring items in 2011 Total impairment: /mn: - Impairment of goodwill: /mn, mainly related to: - Banco di Sardegna: /mn - Gallo (Advisory): -3.1 /mn Impairment of equity investments: /mn, mainly related to: Casse Piemontesi: /mn Alba Leasing: -9.7 /mn Banca della Nuova Terra: -6.8 /mn Realignment for tax purposes of intangible assets: 59.8 /mn Capital gains on disposal of assets: Optima SGR s mutual funds business to Arca SGR: 17.7 /mn Pagina 5

6 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,8 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,6 1,7 1,7 1,5 1,6 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,7 3,0 3,7 3,7 4,5 4,7 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Pagina 6 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Euribor3M and BTP vs Bund spread: monthly trend monthly spread BTP/Bund - avg (dx) effective Euribor 3M

7 2011 Results Highlights Assets and liabilities Profit and loss Capital adequacy Pagina 7

8 Assets & Liabilities Assets /mn dec.'10 dec.'11 chg.% Customer Loans ,9% Securities Portfolio ,1% of which AFS ,4% Equity Investments, ,3% Properties & Intangibles Other current assets ,5% Total Assets ,8% Liabilities & Shareholders equity Slight increase in loans (+0.9%); direct deposits slightly up (+0.6% y/y) Growth of 0.6 /bn in portfolio securities (all refinanced with the ECB) to support the interest margin Equity investments down by 55 /mn (impairment, disposals) Negative net interbank position of 2.4 /bn (1.8 /bn at the end of 2010), of which 3.5 /bn for funding with the ECB (1.6 /bn at Sept. '11) Net equity up by more than 300 /mn (+7.0%), mainly due to the conversion of the soft mandatory bond (219 /mn) and retained earnings (215 /mn) /mn dec.'10 dec.'11 chg.% Customer Deposits ,6% Net Interbank Position ,5% Other Funds & Liabilities ,6% Shareholders' equity ,0% Total Liabilities ,8% Pagina 8

9 Direct funding (1/2) Total Direct Funding ( /mn) ,6% Marginal growth over the 12 months (+0.6% y/y); significant recovery with respect to 3Q 11 (+1.9% q/q) Significant growth in the bond component (+1.5 /bn) of which 1.1 /bn concentrated in the two placements in February (senior 400 /mn) and March (subordinated retail 700 /mn) Growth on retail and private markets (increase of 430 /mn in 2011: +1.3% y/y) dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 Direct Funding: breakdown by segment Direct Funding breakdown by sources /bn Sight depo Repos/ CDs Bonds Total % on total Retail+Private 20,1 6,4 8,1 34,6 71,2% Corporate+ Large Corp. 6,6 0,4 0,2 7,2 14,7% Other 1,7 1,4 3,7 6,8 14,1% Total 28,4 8,1 12,1 48,6 100,0% bonds wholesale 2,2% bonds retail 22,6% repos 5,7% % sul tot. 58,5% 16,7% 24,8% 100,0% CDs 11,0% sight deposits 58,5% Pagina 9

10 Direct funding (2/2) bond maturities monthly view ( /mn) In 2011, 3.8 /bn new bond placements against total bond maturities of 2.1 /bn Bond maturities in 2012 of 2.2 /bn, adequately distributed throughout the year and replacements easily sustainable Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Mag-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Ago-12 Sept-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Placing power ( /bn) Bond maturities breakdown ( /bn) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Retail 2,4 2,4 Wholesale 2,9 2,9 3,8 0,4 3, ,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 2,2 3,0 0,6 2,2 2,2 2,4 2,2 Retail Wholesale 0,7 0,8 0,1 0,7 0,7 1,4 0,4 1, beyond Pagina 10

11 Indirect deposits and bancassurance Total Indirect Deposits and bancassurance ( /mn) Chg y/y % -8,0% +1,9% -8,7% Indirect deposits and bancassurance down 2.4 /bn (-8.0% y/y), of which 0.9 /bn on the AuC segment and 1.5 /bn on the AuM segment Net AUM flows: -1.3 /bn y/y (-0.4 /bn q/q) dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 indirect deposits bancassurance (stock) Breakdown ( /mn) Chg y/y % +1,9% Composition (%) 6,7% 7,5% ,7% 56,5% 57,8% ,3% 36,8% 34,7% dec.'10 dec.'11 dec.'10 dec.'11 AuM AuC Bancassurance (stock) AuM AuC Bancassurance (stock) Pagina 11

12 Customer loans (1/2) Loans ( /mn) +0,9% Increase in the 12 months (+0.4 /bn, +0.9%), slight decrease from the previous quarter Commercial banks: increase in the retail segment +0.7 /bn (3.7% y/y) and corporate segment (+2.6% y/y); decline in financial repos (-0.4 /bn) Growth in loans in Meliorbanca: +170 /mn in 2011 dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 Loans breakdown by type (y/y; /mn) Loans breakdown by segment (%) +4,0% ,3% Large corporate 8,3% Other 2,4% Retail+Private 43,9% * performing Mortgages* Other Corporate 45,4% Pagina 12

13 Customer loans (2/2) Customer loans vs Peers breakdown by region 2011 vs 2010 (%) Growth BPER Growth Peers Chg.(%) North-west 1.8% 4.0% -2.2 North-east 5.2% 2.3% +2.9 Center 10.6% 1.5% +9.1 South 3.9% 4.7% -0.8 Islands 1.4% 5.4% % w/o effect of postearthquake Abruzzo KEY: Growth in Bper loans y/y > 10% vs Peers Growth in Bper loans y/y > 5 and < 10% vs Peers Growth in Bper loans y/y > 0 and < 5% vs Peers Growth in Bper loans y/y < Peers Mkt Share Bper loans region > Mkt Share Bper loans total Italy Mkt Share Bper loans region < Mkt Share Bper loans total Italy 1) Peers growth calculated for the 17 regions monitored by the Group (Total Italy Peers growth = 2.7% ) Note: Growth y/y calculated on the periods November 2011 and November Market share Bper loans, November 2011 Source: Planus processing of Regulatory Figures Reports Pagina 13

14 Doubtful loans (1/2) Doubtful Loans: breakdown (net figures; /mn) Non performing loans Other Watchlist loans Change on Chg YoY y/y % 22,5% 12,0% 21,6% Slight increase in overall aggregate in the quarter Change in stock significantly lower than in other quarters Meliorbanca: decline in net stock during the year In the quarter, 100% write-off of around positions with high coverage, resulting in a lower non-performing coverage ratio ,4% dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 Coverage trend (%) dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 non performing 57,47% 56,87% 55,50% 54,50% 52,84% watch-list 17,18% 16,89% 17,43% 17,00% 16,77% past due/restructured 5,40% 6,53% 5,33% 5,32% 4,69% total doubtful loans 36,63% 36,14% 35,77% 34,52% 33,85% performing 0,78% 0,77% 0,73% 0,72% 0,67% performing non performing watch-list past due/restructured 1,1% 3,7% % on net lending trend (%) 1,1% 1,2% 1,4% 1,2% 4,0% 4,1% 2,5% 2,7% 2,9% 4,4% 4,5% 3,1% 3,2% 92,6% 92,2% 91,9% 91,2% 91,0% 8,9% Total loans 4,77% 4,88% 4,95% 5,06% 4,96% dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 Pagina 14

15 Doubtful loans (2/2) Watchlist loans flows * (gross( figures; /mn) Non-performing loans inflows* (gross figures; /mn) inflows 426,4 inflows 496,7 outflows 518,5 520,2 366,9 167,7 145,4 129,4 120,4 156,1-334,1-290,0-317,2-231,2-269,4 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 * Commercial banks excluding Meliorbanca Sharp slowdown in watchlist loans inflows in the 4Q11 Pagina 15

16 Securities portfolio (1/2) Securities portfolio breakdown /mn HFT CFV AFS HTM total % on total Bonds ,7% Equity ,8% Funds and Sica ,8% Other * ,8% Group ,0% * Mainly derivates for hedging purposes Securities portfolio essentially unchanged versus the previous quarter; increase in Italian government bonds of around 0.7 /bn in 2011 Italian government bonds: about 70% of consolidated shareholders equity Greek bonds: 6.9 /mn of which 1.9 /mn government bonds Bond portfolio (4.8 /bn) made up mainly by Government bonds (3.2 /bn, of which 98.1% Italian govies) ECB repos: 3.5 /bn Counterbalancing capacity: 7.4 /bn (net of haircut), of which 2.1 /bn unencumbered Securities portfolio by quarter Bonds portfolio by issuer ,1% Corporate 23% Government 67% Sovranational 10% dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 Pagina 16

17 Securities portfolio (2/2) Govies&Sovranational PTF by issuing country Govies&Sovranational PTF by accounting valuation Sovranational HFT; 36% 12,5% AFS; 50% DUR; 1.3 DUR; 2.5 Others 0,0% Core Euro 0,6% PIGS 0,9% Italy 86,0% HTM; 14% DUR; 4.2 Italian Govies PTF by accounting valuation HTM; 7% DUR;2.6 Italian Govies PTF by coupon ZC 11% HFT;36% DUR;1.3 AFS; 57% DUR;2.5 Floating 39% Fixed 50% Pagina 17

18 CONTENTS 2011 Results Highlights Assets and liabilities Profit and loss Capital adequacy Pagina 18

19 Profit & Loss /mn recurring non-rec. total recurring non-rec. total Interest Margin 1.330, , , ,5 3,2% 3,2% Commissions 693,7 693,7 690,1 690,1 0,5% 0,5% Dividends 7,3 7,3 5,0 5,0 45,7% 45,7% Trading gains 69,4 69,4 21, ,6 45,6% Total Income 2.100, , ,2 26, ,3 4,7% 3,4% of which FVO 146,1 25,8 31 dec dec 2010 Change Provisions -350,1-350,1-397,8-397,8-12,0% -12,0% Operating Income 1.750, , ,5 26, ,5 8,8% 7,1% Staff costs -785,9-785,9-778,1-778,1 1,0% 1,0% Other administrative costs -501,0-501,0-496,3-496,3-0,9% 0,9% Other costs / revenues 26,6 17,7 44,3 24,3 24,3 9,8% 82,7% Operating costs ,3 17, , , ,2 0,8% -0,6% Net Operating Income 490,4 17,7 508,1 358,3 26,1 384,4 36,9% 32,2% Other income, net 5,3-107,2-102,0 14,7 14,7 Pre-tax Profit 495,7-89,6 406,1 373,0 26,1 399,0 32,9% 1,8% Taxes -217,1 55,0-162,2-179,1-0,4-179,4 21,3% -9,6% Net profit of ass. under disp. -6,6-6,6-2,6 110,4 107,7 Net profit 272,0-34,6 237,4 191,3 136,1 327,4 42,2% -27,5% Minority Interests -22,7-22,7-23,8-10,5-34,2-4,4% -33,6% Net Profit, Group Share 249,2-34,6 214,6 167,5 125,6 293,1 48,8% -26,8% cost / income 60,0% 59,1% 62,3% 61,5% cost / (interest margin + commiss.) 62,3% 61,4% 63,2% 63,2% Cost of credit on annual basis 0,71% 0,71% 0,79% 0,79% net profit / total income 12,9% 11,3% 9,5% 16,1% tax rate 43,8% 39,9% 48,0% 45,0% recurring y/y total y/y Net profit down by 27.5% y/y, but increasing net of non-recurring items (272 /mn;+42.2% y/y) Revenues up: improvement in the interest margin of 3.2% y/y and commissions slightly up (+0.5% y/y) Trading gains positive only thanks to the contribution of the fair value option (146 /mn) Provisions lower than in 2010 (-12.0% y/y) Operating costs down by 7.6 /mn (-0.6% y/y). Net of nonrecurring income (disposal of Optima SGR s mutual funds business for 17.7 /mn), contained growth of 10 /mn (+0.8% y/y); this slight increase is primarily due to salary increases, early retirement incentives, higher legal expenses and one-off charges Pagina 19

20 Profit & Loss - Quarterly trend Profit & Loss (quarterly( view) Significant improvement in the interest margin in 4Q11 ( /mn) 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Interest Margin 329,7 322,5 328,1 338,1 341,8 Commissions 174,4 172,2 168,8 175,1 177,6 Dividends 0,2 0,8 4,0 0,6 1,9 Trading Gains -7,3 18,1 25,9-5,8 31,2 Total Income 497,0 513,6 526,8 508,0 552,5 Provisions -123,6-74,8-106,1-86,3-83 Operating Income 373,4 438,8 420,7 421,7 469,5 Staff costs -199,7-197,9-208, Other administrative costs -132,1-119,6-128, Other costs / revenues 7,4 6,1 3,1 8,3 26,8 Operating Costs -324,4-311,3-334,1-298,5-298,7 Net Operating Income 49,0 127,4 86,5 123,2 170,9 Other income, net 14,3-1,9-16, Pre-tax Profit 63,3 125,5 70,1 123,5 87,0 Taxes -40,7-53,3-47, Net profit of assets under disposal -3,1 0,2 1,3 1-9 Net profit 19,6 72,5 23,6 68,7 72,6 Minority Interests 2,3-10,9-5, Net Profit, Group Share 21,9 61,6 18,5 59,1 75,4 cost / total income 65,3% 60,6% 63,4% 58,8% 54,1% cost / (interest margin + commissions) 64,4% 62,9% 67,2% 58,2% 57,5% cost of credit (bps) net profit / total income 3,9% 14,1% 4,5% 13,5% 13,1% tax rate 64,2% 42,5% 68,2% 44,9% 6,6% Commissions recovering compared with the first half and higher compared with the last quarter of 2010 (+1.8%) Remarkable positive contribution from the fair value option on financial liabilities Provisions still significant, but less than in the last two quarters Pagina 20

21 Interest margin Interest margin ( /mn) Confirmation of the growth trend for the third consecutive +3,2% quarter 1.330,4 Interest margin still supported by the volume effect (+4.9%) 1.289,5 Interest margin growth in 4Q11 mainly due to: strong assets repricing financial carry trade contribution dec.'10 dec.'11 Interest margin contribution breakdown (y/y) Interest margin by quarter ( /mn) 4,9% 3,2% 329,7 328,1 338,1 341,8 322,5 Spread effect -1,7% Volumes effect 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Pagina 21

22 Spread effect Quarterly trends 2,03 Spread (%) 1,95 1,93 1,93 1,90 Spread decrease in 4Q11 due to funding operations in a difficult market environment Effective repricing of short-term loans (mark up +23 bps y/y) but limited room for a further increase on medium/long term loans Mark down negative because of the fall in market rates 4Q 10 IQ 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 Rates (%) Mark up & mark down (%) 3,75 Euribor 3M (avg) Tot. Liabilities cost Tot. Assets yield spread 2,10 2,03 mark up 1,91 mark down 1,93 2,12 3,00 2,25 1,50 0,75 4Q 10 IQ 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 0,01-0,01-0,08-0,08-0,22 4Q 10 IQ 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 Pagina 22

23 Commissions Commissions ( /mn) Commissions up 3.6 /mn (+0.5% y/y) 690,1 +0,5% 693,7 Trend improving gradually over the last two quarters Commissions on indirect deposits slight increase (+0.5% y/y) although with a different composition between in AuC, AuM and mutual funds Confirmation of the growth trend in credit card fees Revision of the usurary law thresholds in 2H11 and related benefit (7.3 /mn y/y) dec.'10 dec.'11 Commissions: breakdown Significant growth also in cash-in and payment fees thanks to repricing activity and an increase in international operations /mn dec.'10 dec.'11 chg. % Commissions on indirect deposits 96,4 96,8 0,5% Bancassurance 17,6 24,7 40,5% Cash in and Payments 89,0 99,9 12,2% Commercial Banking/other 487,1 472,2-3,1% Total 690,1 693,7 0,5% Pagina 23

24 Non interest income Dividend and Trading gains Dividends and Trading gains ( /mn) Significant contribution from the fair value option on financial liabilities (146.1 /mn at the end of 2011, ,6% /mn in September '11) 76,7 Lower contribution from trading 52,6 Significant unrealised losses on Government bonds dec.'10 dec.'11 Dividends and Trading gains: breakdown /mn dec.'10 dec.'11 chg.abs chg.% Dividends 5,0 7,3 2,3 45,7% Trading (net) 24,0 10,7-13,3-55,6% Arca Assicurazioni 26,1 0,0 0,0 0,0% Plus 14,9 9,3-5,6-37,5% Minus -57,4-86,4-29,0-50,5% FVO 25,8 146,1 120,3 466,3% Other 14,3-10,3-24,6 172,4% -7,3 8,9-16,2 FVO by quarter ( /mn) 18,1 26,4-8,3 25,9 26,4-5,8 67,1 31,2 60,9-0,6-72,9-29,7 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Total 52,6 76,7 24,0 45,6% FVO Trading net of FVO Trading gains Pagina 24

25 Loan Loss Provisions Provisions Breakdown Chg y/y % -12,0% Provisions lower than in 2010 ( /mn; -12% y/y) Cost of credit at 71 bps, lower than in 2010 (79 bps) Other provisions: 1 /mn writedown of Greek securities in 4Q ,4% -9,0% dec.'10 Loan loss provisions dec.'11 Other Provisions Cost of credit quarterly view (bps) Cost of credit yearly view (bps) 1,28 0,24 0,16 0,21 0,17 0,17 1,0 w/o Meliorbanca 0,79 0,71 0,41 0,40 0,51 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q Pagina 25

26 Operating costs Operating Costs ( /mn) Change in scope of consolidation (SisPa): net effect of lower costs of -4.0 /mn in ,2-0,6% 1.242,6 Growth in staff costs for higher early retirement incentives (3.5 /mn), effect of adjustments to the old National Labour Contract and renewal of Internal Supplementary Labour Contracts Decrease in directors' and statutory auditors' fees of 0.9 /mn Administrative costs rising for higher taxes (legislative interventions), legal expenses and maintenance Depreciation up (+2.3 /mn), linked to the implementation of projects under the Business Plan dec.'10 dec.'11 A provision of 10 /mn relating to a fiscal settlement (already booked in the 1H11) Operating Cost: breakdown Headcount flows /mn dec.'10 dec.'11 chg. abs. chg. % Staff 778,1 785,9 7,8 1,0% Administrative Expenses 496,3 501,0 4,7 0,9% Depreciations 55,3 57,7 2,3 4,2% Other 30,9 22,4-8,5-27,5% Other Revenues/Costs -110,5-124,4-13,9 12,6% Total 1.250, ,6-7,6-0,6% dec '10 net exits decons. Not including leavers SISPA incentivized exits dec '11 budget dec '11 Pagina 26

27 CONTENTS 2011 Results Highlights Assets and liabilities Profit and loss Capital adequacy Pagina 27

28 Regulatory capital 10,6% 10,4% 10,5% 10,6% 6,8% 6,7% Capital Ratios (quarterly trend) 6,8% 6,9% 11,5% 7,9% Total Capital Ratio Tier 1Ratio Core Tier 1 ratio remarkable improvement versus Sept. '11 thanks to capital management policies including: conversion of the soft mandatory bond, completed in October '11, with positive effects of 219 /mn retained earnings (increase of 85 /mn compared with Sept. '11, net of FVO) conservative payout policy in line with recent indications from the Bank of Italy containment of lending and RWA 6,8% 6,7% 6,8% 6,8% 7,8% Core Tier 1 Ratio Negative effect of Italy's downgrade, which weighs on exposures to banks, local authorities and the public sector dec.'10 mar.'11 jun.'11 sept.'11 dec.'11 Within the Group, valuation reserves for 143 /mn still available for free share capital increase, part of them already approved by the Supervisory Authority, with positive effects on CT1 ratio estimated in 27 bps Capital requirements /mn dec.'11 Core TIER TIER Total Capital Total RWA equivalent to capital requirements Core TIER 1 Ratio 7,8% TIER 1 Ratio 7,9% Total Capital Ratio 11,5% Requirements Requirements /mn % on total Credit risk ,6% Market risk 48 1,3% Other regulatory requirements 66 1,8% Operating risks 316 8,4% Total ,0% Pagina 28

29 Contatti Gilberto Borghi Head of Investor Relations Via San Carlo, 8/ Modena - Italy Ph Alessandro Simonazzi Head of Planning & Control Via San Carlo, 8/ Modena - Italy Ph Pagina 29

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