Italian Morning Sight
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- Mervin Farmer
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1 Italian Morning Sight 10 June 2013 Equity Research Institutional Sales Relative Value Equity Derivatives Events Csp, Engineering, La Doria: ex-dividend date Fintel Energia Group: board of directors on results Unicredit: board of directors Astm: ordinary and extraordinary shareholders meeting Pop.Etruria: first day of rights issue Macro Data Istat: Industrial Production of April Istat: Q1 GDP sa and wda final data Investment Research Stock Exchanges 7 Jun 13 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD FTSE Italy All-Share 17, ,218 18,875 FTSE MIB 16, ,154 17,897 FTSE Italy Star 12, ,110 13,027 Comit Stoxx EuroStoxx 50 2, , ,835.9 Dow Jones Industrials 15, ,329 15,409 Nasdaq Comp 3, ,092 3,502 Nikkei , ,395 15,627 Other Market Indicators 7 Jun 13 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD EUR/USD USD/YEN London Brent Crude Oil Index U$/BBL Yrs Bund Futures Source: Datastream Recommendation and target price changes No change News Interpump (Accumulate) Positive outlook and growth strategy confirmed Finmeccanica (Accumulate) Five players may soon submit bids for Avio Space Technical Analysis DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: ESNR <go>
2 Interpump Italy/Industrial Engineering Interpump (Accumulate) Accumulate Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR closing price as of 07/06/2013 Target price: EUR Target Price unchanged Reuters/Bloomberg ITPG.MI/IP IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 729 Current N of shares (m) 109 Free float 63% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,105,620 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 732 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 6.90 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 5.16 Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.74% Abs. perf. 3 mth 11.30% Abs. perf. 12 mth 7.46% Key financials (EUR) 12/12 12/13e 12/14e Sales (m) EBITDA (m) EBITDA margin 19.8% 19.5% 20.2% EBIT (m) EBIT margin 15.7% 15.2% 15.9% Net Profit (adj.)(m) ROCE 10.0% 9.6% 10.6% Net debt/(cash) (m) Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(ebitda/fin. int) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT P/E (adj.) P/BV OpFCF yield 7.2% 3.0% 9.0% Dividend yield 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% EPS (adj.) BVPS DPS Positive outlook and growth strategy confirmed The facts: in an article published today on La Repubblica, the management confirmed the focus on: the widening of the commercial network through local subsidiaries in the new strategic markets, the further rationalisation of the group s structure in order to increase efficiency and the strengthening of the M&A activity. Furthermore, based on the current good visibility, they are confident that Interpump will meet guidance announced in February: FY 13 sales at around EUR 540m and FY 13 EBITDA at around EUR 110m; this guidance does not include the last acquisition of Hydrocontrol. Our estimates are in line with this indication: FY 13e sales at EUR 584m and FY 13e at EUR 114m, which factor in the last acquisition. Conclusion & Action: we confirm our positive stance on the stock, so we maintain our Accumulate recommendation and our target price of EUR 7.80 per share (calculated based on our DCF model - WACC 8.25% and 1.5% of perpetual growth rate). 8.5 vvdsvdvsdy May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Source: Factset INTERPUMP Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased) Shareholders: IPG Holding 26%; Harris Associates LP 10%; Analyst(s): Paola Saglietti, paola.saglietti@bancaakros.it
3 Finmeccanica Italy/Aerospace & Defense Finmeccanica (Accumulate) Accumulate Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR closing price as of 07/06/2013 Target price: EUR Target Price unchanged Reuters/Bloomberg SIFI.MI/FNC IM Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,367 Current N of shares (m) 578 Free float 61% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 36,775,050 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 15,001 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 5.15 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 2.67 Abs. perf. 1 mth -2.01% Abs. perf. 3 mth 10.29% Abs. perf. 12 mth 36.29% Key financials (EUR) 12/12 12/13e 12/14e Sales (m) 17,218 17,354 17,594 EBITDA (m) 1,439 1,433 1,829 EBITDA margin 8.4% 8.3% 10.4% EBIT (m) (457) 720 1,088 EBIT margin nm 4.1% 6.2% Net Profit (adj.)(m) ROCE -1.5% 9.8% 11.0% Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,373 3,554 3,598 Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(ebitda/fin. int) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT nm P/E (adj.) P/BV OpFCF yield 22.9% -3.9% 7.1% Dividend yield 0.0% 2.1% 5.1% EPS (adj.) BVPS DPS Five players may soon submit bids for Avio Space The facts: Yesterday's "Il Sole 24Ore" wrote that Cinven and FNC would be close to selling their stakes in Avio Space; at least five international groups would reportedly be ready to submit their preliminary bids by the end of June. The candidates would be: Thalès, EADS, Safran, one German player and one US player. Our analysis: Avio Space would be valued around EUR 300/400m; Cinven owns 81% of the company, while FNC owns ~14% of it, the rest being in the hands of the management. We estimate that FNC should cash in EUR 42/56m from the sale of its stake. We remind investors that FNC already sold its 14% stake in Avio aeronautic with an expected cash in of ~EUR 260m; the conclusion of the disposal process should be in Q Conclusion & Action: The news should have limited impact on FNC stock price today even though 5 contenders represent a very good starting point for a disposal process. 5.5 vvdsvdvsdy May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Source: Factset FINMECCANICA Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased) Shareholders: Italian Government 32%; Tradewinds GI 5%; Grantham Mayo van Otterloo 2%; Analyst(s): Gabriele Gambarova, gabriele.gambarova@bancaakros.it
4 Technical Analysis (daily ratings) 10/06/2013 ENI ENI.MI MEDIOLANUM MED.MI Close Close 5.21 Rating ADD Rating ADD Supp Supp Resist Resist Stop loss Stop loss 5.00 Profit taking Profit taking 5.70 KBC GROUP KBC.BR TOMTOM TOM2.AS Close Close 3.95 Rating ADD Rating ADD Supp Supp Resist Resist Stop loss Stop loss 3.85 Profit taking Profit taking 4.25 Technical Analysis FTSE MIB (expiration June 2013) IFSc Supports: Resistances: RSI: N-POSITIVE STOCHASTICS: N-POSITIVE MACD:NEUTRAL Short Term Trend: NEUTRAL DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector (DJ Stoxx 07/06: chg 1.27%) Media Telecom Technology Financial Services Insurance Banks Utilities Personal Goods Food & Beverage Healthcare Industrial G&S Construction & Materials Oil & Gas Travel & Leisure Auto & Parts Retail Basic Resources Chemical % 0% 2% Source: FactSet Cyclical Non-Cyclical Financial TMT 4
5 Disclaimer This research has been prepared by Andrea Devita, Marco Cavalleri, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who are financial analysts with SpA (" "), which is responsible for the preparation of the research. is a bank authorised to perform also investment services; it is part of the Bipiemme Popolare di Milano Group (the Group ) and it is duly subject to the management and co-ordination of Popolare di Milano (the Parent Company ). is registered with the Italian Banking Association code n and is subject to the regulation and surveillance of Bank of Italy and Consob (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa)." has prepared this research for its professional clients only, pursuant to Directive 2004/39/CE and Annex 3 of Consob Regulation on intermediaries (Resolution n ). This research is being distributed as of 10 June In compliance with arts. 69 quater and quinquies of Consob Regulations for Issuers ( notification to the public regarding interest and conflict of interest ) hereby declared that it has a personal interest in some of the companies examined in this research, specifically: 1) Anima Sgr, Fiera Milano, Premuda, Risanamento (in which parent group holds more than 2% or is a member of shareholders pacts). 2) Acotel, Amplifon, Autostrada To-Mi (TAH market), Biesse (until 19 June 2012), Dmail (until 3 October 2012), Enervit, Falck Renewables, Gas Plus, I Grandi Viaggi, Imvest, QF Investietico, QF Mediolanum RE A, QF Mediolanum RE B, SIAS (TAH market), Zucchi Ord/Pref (for which the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider). 3) Alerion Clean Power, Class Editori, Gabetti, Italcementi, RDB, Seat PG, Servizi Italia (dual administrator role in related parties). 4) Moleskine ( was the placement bank and guarantor for the IPO organized in March 2013). 5) Atlantia, (the Bank was a member of the consortium for the placement of the negotiable bonds organized in the last twelve months). 6) Mediobanca (the Bank was acting as lead Manager of the consortium for the placement of the non-negotiable bonds organized in May and June 2012). 7) FondiariaSai, Unipol (the Bank was acting as underwriter of the consortium for the capital increase organized in July 2012). 8) A2A (dual administrator role in related parties; the Bank was a member of the consortium for the placement of the negotiable bonds organized in November 2012). 9) Cape Live, Prima Industrie (the Bank is acting as corporate advisor in communication to institutional investors). 10) RCS Mediagroup: (the Bank will be acting in the coming capital increase). Financial analysts Andrea Devita, Marco Cavalleri, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who prepared this research, have gained considerable experience with and other authorised brokerage houses. Said financial analysts do not receive a bonus, salary or any other form of remuneration, whether directly or indirectly, from any earnings in any investment banking operation. Said financial analysts and their families do not hold financial instruments issued by the companies under examination nor are they directors, managers or advisors of the companies. Pursuant to Consob rulings to implement art. 114, paragraph 8 of Italian Legislative Decree 58/98 (TUF) and specifically art. 69 quinquies, paragraph 2 of the Issuers Regulation, hereby informs its clients that additional information is available at its web site ( The information and opinions given in this research are based on sources believed to be reliable. has done its best to check the source of said information and that it has already been made public. However, notwithstanding the said controls does not guarantee nor shall it be held liable if the information supplied herein or used to prepare this research is found to be inaccurate, incomplete, untrue or incorrect. This research is for information purposes only. It shall not be regarded as a proposal for a contract, an offer to sell nor as a solicitation to buy and/or sell financial products nor, in general, to invest. Nor shall it be regarded as advice on investment opportunities. does not guarantee that any of the forecasts and/or estimates supplied in this research are attainable. Moreover, shall not be held liable for any consequences and/or damage that may derive from the use of this research and/or the information contained herein. All the information or opinions contained in this research are subject to change without notice, without detriment to any legal or regulatory requirements. Unless specifically authorised, this research may not be reproduced and/or circulated, whether wholly or in part, directly or indirectly. 5
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