RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY

Transcription

1 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY QUARTER II-2004 Residential property price indicated an increase and predicted still to increase on the following quarter The Prices Price indicated on increase The Quarter II-2004 survey indicated that new house price development, at 14 big cities including Jabotabek (Greater Jakarta) area, increased by 1,53%. This was just slightly higher than previous quarter (1,00%). Based on building size types, the large size building recorded the highest increase (1,89%), followed by medium type (1,46%), and then small type (1,25%). While in terms of area, city of Bandar Lampung had the highest increase (5,58%) that mainly happened on large type of building. On the other side, Palembang was the area that didn t experience changes in price. Meanwhile, the price increased 1,25% in Jabotabek area. (Index) Graph 1 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) and Changes (composit of 14 cities in Indonesia) (%) RPPI Methodology Residential Property Price Survey is a quarterly survey conducted by Bank Indonesia since Its respondents are property developers from 12 cities, i.e,. Medan, Padang, Palembang, Bandar Lampung, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Denpasar, Banjarmasin, Manado, and Makassar. Since 2003Q1, its city coverage has been added by Jabotabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Tanggerang and Bekasi) area. And, at 2004Q2, its coverage became 14 cities as Pontianak joined in. Data collected from developer directly consists of prices and total sales, both for current quarter and following quarter as prediction. The average method is adopted to process the data by prices type ( lower, lower middle, middle, upper middle and upper) and by building type (small, medium, large). Composite Index is constructed by simple average chain index. Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics 1

2 Prices increases on next quarter was predicted to be lower. On the following quarter (QIII-2004), property developers predicted that the price of residential property would increase 1,12%, or specifically the price increases were 1,52% for small building type, 0,92% for medium building type, and 0,91% for large building type. Based on city, the highest price increases predicted to Manado (5,50%). Contrary, Padang predicted to have almost unchanged prices as it hoped to increase only 0,04%. Meanwhile, Jabotabek area was predicted to increase 0,50%. Graph 2 RPPI in Small Type housing Tw I Tw II Tw III Tw IV Tw I Tw II Tw III Tw IV Tw II Tw III* RPPI of Small Type 6.0 Graph 3 RPPI in Medium Type Housing RPPI of Medium Type Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics 2

3 Graph 4 RPPI in Large Type Housing RPPI of Large Type Housing cost in quarter II showed an increase (inflasi) Comparing the trend indication of residential prices to housing prices on CPI (surveyed by BPS-Statistics Indonesia) 2004Q2 (June 2004), showed such similar pattern and movement. On that quarter, housing prices recorded 2,99% increases. It is relatively higher than previous quarter increases at 1,51%. Meanwhile, in quarter III-2004 (July 2004), the sub group of goods/services for building cost experienced inflation 0,77%. (%) Graph 5 Changes in RPPI and CPI Housing Tw II Tw III Tw IV Tw I Tw II Tw III Tw IV Tw I Tw II Tw III* CPI Housing RPPI Annually RPPI experienced an increase Annually (y-o-y), Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) in quarter II noted an increase 6,20%, or lower than that of previous quarter (7,18%). The slowdown tendency of annual growth mainly occurred in large building type on 5,33%, followed by medium type of building 5,82% and small type of building 7,44%. The highest annual growth occurred in Palembang (11,25%) and the lowest occurred in Banjarmasin (0,93%). Meanwhile, Jabotabek area grew at 2,62%. Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics 3

4 . and the increase in the next quarter projected to be slowdown In quarter III-2004, the annual growth of RPPI was estimated 5,0% or lower than previous quarter. The slowdown tendency of annual growth occurred in middle type of building 4,10%, small type of building (5,33%) and large type of building (5,56%). Based on areas, the highest increase of annual growth occurred in Semarang (8,54), followed by Manado (8,37%). Meanwhile, Jabotabek area was predicted to grow annually at 2,75%. Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics 4

5 NO CITY Table 1 RPPI Changes in quarter II-2004 Quarterly Changes Anually Changes Small Medium Large All Small Medium Large All 1 BANDUNG BANDAR LAM PUNG BANJARMASIN DENPASAR PALEMBANG SEMARANG YOGYAKARTA PADANG MEDAN M A K A SS A R MANADO SURABAYA PONTIANAK JABOTABEK All Cities Table 2 Expectation of RPPI Changes in Quarter III-2004 NO CITY Quarterly Changes Anually Changes Small Medium Large All Small Medium Large All 1 BANDUNG BANDAR LAM PUNG BANJARMASIN DENPASAR PALEMBANG SEMARANG YOGYAKARTA PADANG MEDAN M A K A SS A R MANADO SURABAYA PONTIANAK JABOTABEK All Cities Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics 5